Hornby Update on Financials.

[adb968008]

13 hours ago, mdvle said:

 

 

2) it's too early to make much of a judgement - for example, the ending of the constant discounting of product to clear out the warehouse will take time to filter through both to retailers and consumers and thus the resulting change in behaviour will likely be seen in next years financial results.  As retailers regain trust that Hornby won't turn around and stab them in the back, they will be more confident in purchasing not only stock for pre-orders but to have a reasonable amount of shelf stock.  Similarly, at some point the end customers will realize if they want a model they can't wait for Hornby to have a fire sale and will be forced to purchase it at a more reasonable (at least for Hornby's profit margins, and retailers) price.

I think that might apply outside the hobby but not in it.

 

A model is most popular when it is released, after that it can linger for years, if not a decade before it sells out. Whilst the old business model, that fire sale emptied Hornbys warehouse, some dealers would be stocking up to hold it for the years it takes to sell, as the price was right to buy it and the urgency to buy was there. The new business model, I’m not seeing an incentive for the shop to stock up, if they know the warehouse always has it or that customers have less interest in it. My experience of 2019 has been more shops are willing stock something to order on bigger ticket items.

 

I think The secret sauce to avoiding it, is unicorns blood...an ever decreasing list of “must haves”, at the “right price and quantity”. Hornby managed it with the 1st Pecketts, Terriers and 66’s, but looking back over the last few years, cant help thinking tender engines seem to have fallen from favour across the market, (Stanier mogul, C,700,K2, O2, J15, Duchess, 72xx, LN) have all seen mass discounting seen at the retailer.  

 

The problem with this approach, is the first release sells, the latter ones slow down... remember Peckettmania... yet the lilleshall one is discounted and lingering.. and Hornby has 7 more lined up to come... Is the market ready for more plus 2nd run of Terriers, 66’s or did the first run fill the need ?, how about yet another princess ? The 4x Rustons will sell out, but will another 4x more later ?

 

Why should a shop up tie up money in old stock if theres no incentive to ? The risk is, and demonstrably occured in 2019, that the money ends up tied up in higher stock levels in a Margate warehouse instead. What is needed is  whole farm of single use unicorns in Kent instead made in exactly the right quantity.

 

Reading the report Lyndon puts his name on the line to this, stating 2020 is there first year of “their” tooling, and drawing attention to its highest proportion of stock to sales ratio in 2019 blaming the old team, stating it should be really be the lowest, and putting a KPI on it for next year..., with a longer term target of 50% increase in sales, all during this economic environment. Stepping back, so far 2019 has been my lowest spend on Hornby in a decade, (and I buy lots), put off by head2head duplication, artificially higher prices and retoolings.. so I’m not surprised at the stock levels, but its not going to be me buying the old stuff in the future either, so roll on lets see the new 2020 range..

 

if it meets the hype it should be good, and as the end customer, I should be excited, but 2019 had the opposite effect .. I hope in 2021 I read success and profits for 2020, and I’m surrounded in new Hornby stuff, but if not, I dont read a report blaming it on Brexit, as this is a known event.

Edited October 1, 2019 by adb968008

[JSpencer]

11 hours ago, mdvle said:

 

Everything in that report is 6 months old, and only reflects about 1 year(?) of the current management.

 

For me the key points are:

 

1) the plans are funded until 2023.  This means there should be some stability to the creation of new models for the next several years, and that they will have the time and resources to do a proper job on these new models.

 

2) it's too early to make much of a judgement - for example, the ending of the constant discounting of product to clear out the warehouse will take time to filter through both to retailers and consumers and thus the resulting change in behaviour will likely be seen in next years financial results.  As retailers regain trust that Hornby won't turn around and stab them in the back, they will be more confident in purchasing not only stock for pre-orders but to have a reasonable amount of shelf stock.  Similarly, at some point the end customers will realize if they want a model they can't wait for Hornby to have a fire sale and will be forced to purchase it at a more reasonable (at least for Hornby's profit margins, and retailers) price.

 

I certainly will not disagree with that. The only danger area is that it might not be possible to return to 40 to 50 million pounds of sales per year. While customers may stop waiting for a fire sale, they might also just limit their budget and themselves to their key interest area where as before they may have brought across a broad. Extra tooling may just dilute sales. It might be better instead to have the normal number of toolings (or maybe 20% less) and do more colours and numbers in year 1 instead of a few now and the odd ones appearing years later.

Look at the original Merchant Navy, it seems the second run is taking an awful time to get released, in the meanwhile other goodies have appeared and the market may have lost interest.  

 

[Fenman]

1 hour ago, JSpencer said:

...

in the meanwhile other goodies have appeared and the market may have lost interest.  

 

 

It's an interesting question, I think. In the 20-odd years we've had super-detailed 00 RTR models, a huge range has been released that covers most of the mainstream items (yes, yes, I know the 6 members of the A class M&GN tank engines have never, ever appeared in RTR, but...). Anyone with cash and the inclination can now model all the mainstream topics with high-spec RTR. There is almost no "must-have" model with mainstream appeal left to manufacture.

 

And meanwhile, Heljan and Dapol and Daerstadt have been introducing popular 0 gauge models at "affordable" prices. 

 

Looking at all this, I feel much more excited by the 0 gauge releases than anything slated for 00. 0 feels as if it is pregnant with possibility. 00 feels as if it has all been done.

 

I'm sure I'm in a minority, and many people won't care about 0 just as I don't care much about N. But I do wonder if there's something to the idea that 00 is a mature market -- which meand incremental improvement at best -- while 0, for example, is exciting new territory.

 

Paul

 

 

 

[Phil Parker]

2 hours ago, JSpencer said:

in the meanwhile other goodies have appeared and the market may have lost interest.  

 

Do you mean the serious model railway market? Possibly. But Hornby are pointing themselves beyond that market with pop-up stores and new things that look like concessions. Models that will sell to the general public at full RRP.

[mdvle]

3 hours ago, adb968008 said:

A model is most popular when it is released, after that it can linger for years, if not a decade before it sells out. Whilst the old business model, that fire sale emptied Hornbys warehouse, some dealers would be stocking up to hold it for the years it takes to sell, as the price was right to buy it and the urgency to buy was there.

 

The problem was that retailers weren't stocking up during the fire sales because Hornby was doing those fire sales direct to the consumer - thus upsetting the traditional store based sales channel.

 

Hornby have stopped this under the new management, but as I said it will still take another 1 or 2 years for this to fully work its way through.

 

3 hours ago, adb968008 said:

 The new business model, I’m not seeing an incentive for the shop to stock up, if they know the warehouse always has it or that customers have less interest in it. My experience of 2019 has been more shops are willing stock something to order on bigger ticket items.

 

Shops inherently need some stuff on the shelves for the customer who walks in (whether to a physical store or an online store) to handle and possibly buy immediately, and part of the challenge of being a retailer heading into the 2020s is making the correct decision as to what to risk the capital on to put on the shelf.

 

At some point Hornby will also join the 2020s and adjust their production quantities so that are stuck with stock sitting in a warehouse, thus ending the "I will just order it when a customer wants it" option.

 

 

2 hours ago, JSpencer said:

I certainly will not disagree with that. The only danger area is that it might not be possible to return to 40 to 50 million pounds of sales per year. While customers may stop waiting for a fire sale, they might also just limit their budget and themselves to their key interest area where as before they may have brought across a broad. Extra tooling may just dilute sales. It might be better instead to have the normal number of toolings (or maybe 20% less) and do more colours and numbers in year 1 instead of a few now and the odd ones appearing years later.

Look at the original Merchant Navy, it seems the second run is taking an awful time to get released, in the meanwhile other goodies have appeared and the market may have lost interest.  

 

 

Agree, there are still areas where Hornby are either stuck in the past or have recently returned to the past to their detriment, and they will need to change these behaviours to survive even if it means some tough decisions.

 

Similarly, there are only so many £'s available in a year and they are going to have to do better to claim a share of that pot of money or the newer entrants to the market will take that money instead.

 

They need to acknowledge the market has changed and slowly releasing liveries over 10 years no longer is acceptable, and that the hobby budget will simply go elsewhere instead of waiting.

 

The biggest danger at the moment I suspect is what Hattons may be doing - have they planned (but not yet announced) anything to make up for the loss of Bachmann as a supplier.

 

39 minutes ago, Fenman said:

 

It's an interesting question, I think. In the 20-odd years we've had super-detailed 00 RTR models, a huge range has been released that covers most of the mainstream items (yes, yes, I know the 6 members of the A class M&GN tank engines have never, ever appeared in RTR, but...). Anyone with cash and the inclination can now model all the mainstream topics with high-spec RTR. There is almost no "must-have" model with mainstream appeal left to manufacture.

 

Well, the GWR Manor is still MIA...

 

But a look at the annual wish list shows there are still a lot of options available, though all may not be suitable choices for Hornby with their associated overhead costs to produce.  And even some of the items not on the wish list, items from the early years of the current phase of RTR, could do with an updating as they may not meet current standards.

 

39 minutes ago, Fenman said:

And meanwhile, Heljan and Dapol and Daerstadt have been introducing popular 0 gauge models at "affordable" prices. 

 

Looking at all this, I feel much more excited by the 0 gauge releases than anything slated for 00. 0 feels as if it is pregnant with possibility. 00 feels as if it has all been done.

 

I'm sure I'm in a minority, and many people won't care about 0 just as I don't care much about N. But I do wonder if there's something to the idea that 00 is a mature market -- which meand incremental improvement at best -- while 0, for example, is exciting new territory.

 

 

O is certainly interesting, but is still a (very) small market and thus may not provide the sales possibilities that a company the size of Hornby requires in order to make a profitable product (much like N seems to be shifting more towards being a market served by smaller companies with lower overheads).

[Chris M]

I wonder how long the O gauge market will remain buoyant.  O gauge stock is expensive and, perhaps more importantly, takes a lot of space to store. Its good to see O RTR doing well but once buyers start to run out of storage space it could bottom out very quickly. Agreed that there are no "must haves" to come in OO. In addition there are plenty of good quality second hand models available at reasonable prices. Twenty years ago it was worth buying new models because they were so much better than the secondhand ones on sale at the time but now the recent secondhand models are just as good as the new ones. 

On the plus side  I have heard that the Great Model Railway Challenge is doing its bit to increase interest in model railways. This TV coverage alone could provide a welcome increase in sales from new customers - but what will they want to buy?

Who would be a model railway manufacturer?

[adb968008]

I think O gauge is a long term market. 

 

Its growing because its virgin territory, but sales must surely be a fraction of OO, and probably less than n.

 

I very much doubt once the cherry picking is complete, we will see retools like we see in OO for a few decades.

 

That said its very attractive, if I were starting from nil, i’d start in O... but as the price of track and rolling stock remains prohibitive, it would be a small collection. My perfect starting choice would be TT, but that ship sailed and sank decades ago.

 

OO it is.

 

I think steam outlines are reaching the end of feasibility.. sure a duplicate Manor, County, Saint might sell a few. When Iget the weekly discount emails from retailers, its always full of steam outlines, mostly black pre-nationalisation freight locos, or BR liveried steam, you dont see many post 2013 liveried modern image in those lists, even 2019 terriers are starting creep in lower.. yet those 66’s at the start of the year are by enlarge gone.

 

However in modern OO the market is fresh and dry... Todays younger modellers see DMU/  EMUs every day... and theres precious few out there to buy, at a sensible price.

 

A clever series of railroad-esque quality EMUs, with excellant paint jobs, and tooled in ability for future upgrades, without expensive luxuries like lighting, thru wiring, dcc speaker etc, left to aftermarket modellers to do some “modelling” could be well recieved ...

if you look at the recent Mk1’s, Mk2f’s etc.. 3x coaches works out £120 rrp...add in a railroad motorised coach for £100, then for £200 after discount, you've got a modern 4x car EMU..

 

indeed units like a 2x car 456, or bigger units like 455, Electrostar (1000 vehicles produced), 319/769 .. theres loads of oppourtunity to excite a new generation of modeller... its virtually untapped and 000’s of new vehicles have come into the network in the last 2 years... and Hornby's got decades of future liveries to tap into and no second hand market offering the same product at a lower price.

 

Your not going to excite a 15-25 year old enthusiast with a railroad B17 or yet another railroad class 42.., a £400 IEP will be a bit of a 1 off luxury, what I think Hornby needs is volume, unique models, not retools/duplicates or re-runs, at the right price for acceptable (not to excess) detail that look great... thats how they used to be, when we were younger and they were profitable, and its an easier market to identify for growth, i’m not sure 1960’s steam or 1990’s modern have much more growth potential in them.

 

Lets see how the £160 rrp 4x car class 395 Hornby Javelin does as an example, it might be a bit niche to HS1 and the South East, and an older tooling, but the price is right, and its modern.

 

Edited October 1, 2019 by adb968008

[Fenman]

22 minutes ago, mdvle said:

...

But a look at the annual wish list shows there are still a lot of options available, though all may not be suitable choices for Hornby with their associated overhead costs to produce.  And even some of the items not on the wish list, items from the early years of the current phase of RTR, could do with an updating as they may not meet current standards.

...

 

You're right, of course; but the point I was trying to make is that, in 00, there is already a huge range available, new and 2nd-hand, such that, for many of us interested in mainstream subjects, we can use entirely RTR rolling stock and create a complete credible scene.

 

To give a trivial example - if I want to model a steam ex-GER branchline, I've got J15, D16, B12, Ivatt 4MT, 3F and 4F, plus a couple of ranges of non-corridor stock, plus -- going into the transition era -- Derby Lightweights and 105s and 101s, and 30/31s, 15s, 08s, 03s, 04s, 37s, assorted ranges of corridor stock both ex-Big 4 and BR, plus even rare things like an N7. Are there other types I could use? Yes, of course - J17s, for example, or I would kill for a decent BZ van. But I don't actually *need* any of those to make a credible model. The same will be true for many other areas (though there are gaps, of course). As more of us find ourselves in my situation, the market for new stuff shrinks.

 

Conversely, if I want to play in 0 I will likely find it difficult to create a credible scene in the same way. There are so very many subjects not available RTR. The market is huge and open. Margins for manufacturers seem to be high, and I read far less complaining on forums about the prices of 0 gauge - maybe suggesting less price sensitivity?

 

I dunno. 00 feels like a saturated market with a huge number of competent players, producing ever-finer products for the same money, but with a smaller group of "must-have" prototypes from which to choose.

 

I certainly wouldn't be a manufacturer!

 

Paul

 

 

[tomparryharry]

4 hours ago, JSpencer said:

 

I certainly will not disagree with that. The only danger area is that it might not be possible to return to 40 to 50 million pounds of sales per year. While customers may stop waiting for a fire sale, they might also just limit their budget and themselves to their key interest area where as before they may have brought across a broad. Extra tooling may just dilute sales. It might be better instead to have the normal number of toolings (or maybe 20% less) and do more colours and numbers in year 1 instead of a few now and the odd ones appearing years later.

Look at the original Merchant Navy, it seems the second run is taking an awful time to get released, in the meanwhile other goodies have appeared and the market may have lost interest.  

 

 

It might well be that the original Merchant Navies are bl**dy awful-looking machines. However, to be fair, they were built against the background of WW2, and austerity. The rebuilt ones, however came to age when they had a rebuild, and certainly did their best work; an existence that is only remembered fairly recently. I certainly never them in original condition, and I'd guess that's the reason why Hornby haven't raced along is the prospective clients lack of perception, Sure, they've seen Clan Line & British India Line, but what about Union Castle, in 1947 condition?

 

Hmm....

 

Ian.

 

Edited October 1, 2019 by tomparryharry
Forgetfulness.

[rob D2]

I’m surprised Christmas is still such a bulge for Hornby coffers.

 

i don’t know of any kids being brought any train sets anymore....does it still happen ?

 

must be old farts like me asking for stuff .

[Legend]

1 hour ago, adb968008 said:

I think O gauge is a long term market. 

 

Its growing because its virgin territory, but sales must surely be a fraction of OO, and probably less than n.

 

I very much doubt once the cherry picking is complete, we will see retools like we see in OO for a few decades.

 

That said its very attractive, if I were starting from nil, i’d start in O... but as the price of track and rolling stock remains prohibitive, it would be a small collection. My perfect starting choice would be TT, but that ship sailed and sank decades ago.

 

OO it is.

 

I think steam outlines are reaching the end of feasibility.. sure a duplicate Manor, County, Saint might sell a few. When Iget the weekly discount emails from retailers, its always full of steam outlines, mostly black pre-nationalisation freight locos, or BR liveried steam, you dont see many post 2013 liveried modern image in those lists, even 2019 terriers are starting creep in lower.. yet those 66’s at the start of the year are by enlarge gone.

 

However in modern OO the market is fresh and dry... Todays younger modellers see DMU/  EMUs every day... and theres precious few out there to buy, at a sensible price.

 

A clever series of railroad-esque quality EMUs, with excellant paint jobs, and tooled in ability for future upgrades, without expensive luxuries like lighting, thru wiring, dcc speaker etc, left to aftermarket modellers to do some “modelling” could be well recieved ...

if you look at the recent Mk1’s, Mk2f’s etc.. 3x coaches works out £120 rrp...add in a railroad motorised coach for £100, then for £200 after discount, you've got a modern 4x car EMU..

 

indeed units like a 2x car 456, or bigger units like 455, Electrostar (1000 vehicles produced), 319/769 .. theres loads of oppourtunity to excite a new generation of modeller... its virtually untapped and 000’s of new vehicles have come into the network in the last 2 years... and Hornby's got decades of future liveries to tap into and no second hand market offering the same product at a lower price.

 

Your not going to excite a 15-25 year old enthusiast with a railroad B17 or yet another railroad class 42.., a £400 IEP will be a bit of a 1 off luxury, what I think Hornby needs is volume, unique models, not retools/duplicates or re-runs, at the right price for acceptable (not to excess) detail that look great... thats how they used to be, when we were younger and they were profitable, and its an easier market to identify for growth, i’m not sure 1960’s steam or 1990’s modern have much more growth potential in them.

 

Lets see how the £160 rrp 4x car class 395 Hornby Javelin does as an example, it might be a bit niche to HS1 and the South East, and an older tooling, but the price is right, and its modern.

 

 

Agree . There’s now clear blue water appearing between manufacturers . Bachmann are clearly going upmarket and charging top prices , but this leaves a gap for the many that want a model that runs well , has a good paint job  and looks the part. Hornby must have realised through their release of the 66 that there is a market here and needs to capitalise on it .  Trains that have a useful ongoing life and probably several colour schemes still to come would probably be good earners . I’m thinking Turbostar 170, where the  Bachmann 170 will certainly have all the bells and whistles  but with a price to match , I’d be interested in something less expensive and in a range of liveries eg ScotRail Saltire which you cant get at the moment

[andyman7]

5 hours ago, adb968008 said:

A model is most popular when it is released, after that it can linger for years, if not a decade before it sells out. Whilst the old business model, that fire sale emptied Hornbys warehouse, some dealers would be stocking up to hold it for the years it takes to sell, as the price was right to buy it and the urgency to buy was there. The new business model, I’m not seeing an incentive for the shop to stock up, if they know the warehouse always has it or that customers have less interest in it. My experience of 2019 has been more shops are willing stock something to order on bigger ticket items.

 

I think The secret sauce to avoiding it, is unicorns blood...an ever decreasing list of “must haves”, at the “right price and quantity”. Hornby managed it with the 1st Pecketts, Terriers and 66’s, but looking back over the last few years, cant help thinking tender engines seem to have fallen from favour across the market, (Stanier mogul, C,700,K2, O2, J15, Duchess, 72xx, LN) have all seen mass discounting seen at the retailer.  

 

 

It's important to remember that not all models meet the same demands. The superdetailed steam models have very specific audiences that once satiated don't neccessarily come back, but the 66 is a solid seller that will bear repeated sales - it may not have lights or all the bells and whistles of the Hattons/Bachmann version but it hits the psot at the price point and with the Hornby name.

The little engines - Pecketts, 48DS etc - are real fashion items. They're not really on anyone's wish list until Hornby make it and then they're a sellout, but not neccessarily sustainable for the long haul. As long as they amortise tooling and deliver to the bottom line, that's also OK.

[tomparryharry]

On 26/09/2019 at 22:23, Phil Parker said:

 

If you can't grasp the difference between talking about a humorous press release and a full blown, model railway free, discussion about Brexit, then moderation will br required. I think most people know where the line is.

 I see a little B-word,

I see it every day.

It always raises hackles,

When B-word comes our way.

Uncouth words and phrases,

Will get you all irate, 

And if it gets any worse,

Then prepare to moderate!

 

So calm yourself a little while,

Let the B-word from your head,

Lets talk about some livery schemes,

and slaughter that instead!

 

Penned by a true believer and producer of mid-chrome green.....

[JSpencer]

7 hours ago, Phil Parker said:

 

Do you mean the serious model railway market? Possibly. But Hornby are pointing themselves beyond that market with pop-up stores and new things that look like concessions. Models that will sell to the general public at full RRP.

 

Hopefully they will be succesful. I also recently saw Harry Potter items on sale in geek shops. I have doubts as to how far this can be expanded and whether they can bump up sales by the 20 to 30% they need (or any big margin of that). We have seen concessions before in the form of WHsmiths etc but that seems not to have been very successful.

One area of success has been the many liveries on class 66 models at less than £100 making the hobby more accessible.

Up and coming generations, when not on games, seem more interested in living history and cosplay, basically dressing up and living in the past or as some famous character. There is a strong link between that and re-enacting or preservation but scale modeling is more on the fringes - it could be an area to test and exploit.

[The Stationmaster]

The key to all of this for Hornby is to get the marketing right in every way because that I feel has been their biggest failing for many years - not just the most recent previous incumbents but going back several most 'incumbences' before that with Year 2 models pushed straight out behind sell-out Year 1 models and thne finding the market is sated so the Year 2 stuff has frequently sat on the shelves somewhere.  The previous incumbents tackled that syndrome by flogging off stuff in fire sales as part of a strategy to both reduce inventory and at least keep s cash flowing in.  

 

But it put off retailers and that fed through to a big hit on trade ordering of new releases.  LCD has tackled that very firmly by banning fire sales (although i must admit the 'Grange' I bought at the Hornby retail outlet on Swindon a few weeks back was 'very keenly priced', no doubt with an eye on clearing stock room shelves - but that no way compares with the big bulk fire sales in pre LCD days).  But now of course they come up against the other side of the coin and really have to. sell everythingt they 'make' in order to keep cash coming in and stock levels under control.  To me that means making the right things. ( a 'right thing' being something that people will buy to a sell-out level at a good gross profit margin for Hornby), ordering the correct quantities and not getting suckered into bringing forward Year 2 models to sit on shelves somewhere all in order to keep the money and the profits flowing through.

 

LCD clearly sees that as the path to follow judging by all his reported words and he recognises too the market's craving for 'novelty' (i.e. new models) plus the need to broaden the market areas into which Hornby are selling.  2020 will be the first real test of 'new Hornby's' ability ti actually pull off that conjuring trick in the world of model railway, Scalextric and Airfix etc, etc marketing but it is what they have committed them selves to.  It is going to be interesting to see how they do it.

[Barry Ten]

On 26/09/2019 at 18:50, montyburns56 said:

But what would be the most suitable models and rolling stock for a Brexit themed set?

 

 

 

 

[Vistisen]

On 26/09/2019 at 19:58, Widnes Model Centre said:

 

Hi Phil,

 

The B-word is part of the story, it was not intended to be political in any way shape or form. 

The threat of moderation is in my opinion a little unfair.

Your own link contains th same word. 

If l have crossed the line by all means please delete the post.

I thought the 'B word' was 'Bachmann'

 

[mdvle]

14 hours ago, adb968008 said:

I think O gauge is a long term market. 

 

Its growing because its virgin territory, but sales must surely be a fraction of OO, and probably less than n.

 

The biggest threat to O could be China, cost increases could cause it bigger problems than the smaller scales even though the market is currently more price flexible.  But in general I agree that I think O will be around for quite a while, it simply has advantages that neither N or OO can offer.

 

What will be interesting to see is if O steam can get beyond the GWR focus.

 

Quote

However in modern OO the market is fresh and dry... Todays younger modellers see DMU/  EMUs every day... and theres precious few out there to buy, at a sensible price.

 

A clever series of railroad-esque quality EMUs, with excellant paint jobs, and tooled in ability for future upgrades, without expensive luxuries like lighting, thru wiring, dcc speaker etc, left to aftermarket modellers to do some “modelling” could be well recieved ...

 

Highly unlikely.

 

Today's teens/young adults are different than we were when we were young.  They are very comfortable with technology, and a model that merely goes around in circles isn't likely to hold their attention for long.

 

Now give them a train that they can control with their tablet or smartphone, with actual "activities" to control like lights and sound, so it is more like a game, and you will stand a better chance at attracting them to the hobby.

 

This is why in the US Bachmann has gone with Bluetooth controlled trains aimed at the "younger" modellers.

 

Quote

Your not going to excite a 15-25 year old enthusiast with a railroad B17 or yet another railroad class 42.., a £400 IEP will be a bit of a 1 off luxury, what I think Hornby needs is volume, unique models, not retools/duplicates or re-runs, at the right price for acceptable (not to excess) detail that look great... thats how they used to be, when we were younger and they were profitable, and its an easier market to identify for growth, i’m not sure 1960’s steam or 1990’s modern have much more growth potential in them.

 

They are likely to be far more long lasting than many assume.

 

The inherent problem to the current railway is there is little to model.  The DMU/EMU transition, while it has offered the modern railway tremendous efficiencies, means little to no operational possibilities in model form.

 

So some of the next generation attracted to railways as a hobby will continue to be attracted to times past when there are actual operations to be done when a train arrives at a terminus, or the enduring enchantment of steam with not only the operational options but the visual attraction of external moving parts.

 

So yes, many will be attracted to the current scene, but the past will continue to remain (a perhaps diminished) part of the hobby particular given the continued downsizing of layout size as those same young adults face housing challenges unlike anything previous generations faced.

 

We see this in the discussion about minory layouts, whether a modern minory with EMUs going back and forth will provide enough interest to continue using it.  But go back 30 years, and have a diesel or electric to run around, and now you get more interest.

 

Or the person even more space constrained, with maybe a 2' x 6' shelf area, in which a lot can be done in early era's but again with today's railway you simple get a multiple unit of some sort going back and forth...

 

Now for those who can have an entire room, and thus can have a continuous run and are happy with running trains in circles with stops at a through station the modern scene can be satisfying with the variety of liveries.  But that won't be all, or even a majority, of younger modellers.

Edited October 2, 2019 by mdvle

[adb968008]

7 hours ago, mdvle said:

 

.

 

Now give them a train that they can control with their tablet or smartphone, with actual "activities" to control like lights and sound, so it is more like a game, and you will stand a better chance at attracting them to the hobby.

 

This is why in the US Bachmann has gone with Bluetooth controlled trains aimed at the "younger" modellers.

 

Your preaching to the converted here, I’ve been advocating on these pages replacing DCC with Wi-fi operated dead rail models, bluetooth speakers etc, and use of Augmented reality for a few years now.

Flat zero interest, plus added humour is your welcome.

if you recall in the Hornby Rockumentary Simon even went to a VR studio but largely laughed it off as a comedy sketch that it doesn’t relate to his generation and so didn’t relate it to the hobby, in short it’s clear they don’t get it and see no vision for it at the current time, given their current position and the UKs economy its justifiable, even if its already been adopted in Europe and the US.

 

You may be right about the longevity of steam, as long as it relates to preserved steam, however weekly email streams of discounted black pre 1948 steam and odd ball non-preserved steam, or 0-6-0 freight locos say to my inbox that this particukar market  is over supplied, by everyone, not just Hornby.

 

In the longer term without 21st century modellers, those born post 2000 are adults already, there is no future. We are close to a time where all rolling stock, save a few engineers wagons, were built post-BR on the network,.. Post 2000 modelling already is a compromise of majority BR-Era models in privatisation era liveries, scattered with a few privatisation toolings.. 170,350/450,390,395 etc. But today’s network is vastly larger than that.

 

However post 2019’s* UK Railways will present a market gap, if it’s not worth to explore, then that limit defines the upper size of the box for the hobby, a rtr range from c1923-c2019 DC or DCC, therein the hobby shrinks..** .

The hobby will have built a barrier to entry for the enthusiast and risks becoming irrelevant, to all but hardcore enthusiasts who research and model historical pre-2019 railways.

 

So far, Hornby has been shy to adopt post 2000 modelling, they missed all locomotives (66,67,[these were Lima],68,70,88,93?), EMUs & DMUs but only serving the populist 390,395 and IEP... that suggests to me, that they see no real future in the hobby today, whilst steam investment WAS good until c2012,  my inbox of offers suggests the steam focus by all manufacturers is now misaligned too... the hobby needs to find a new market somewhere, Coke trainsets is only part of the story, I don't think Hornby would be wise to enter O gauge or retooling yet more repeats of Brush or EE diesels, though I do also think Hornby’s overseas HO brands have unexplored potential, especially in Eastern Europe, where the hobby has exploded, though I dont know if they still have the mojo that produced wonders such as Rivarossi’s Double Deck PKP stock or the USATC s100 in HO.

 

* PRM regulations see out most BR era passenger rolling stock this year.

 

**for example if I was a modern LNER modeller, I have today 90,91, 92, HST,IEP, mk2,mk3,mk4 plus transients of other operators.. Voyager, XC HST, 66, 67,68, 70, 142,143, 156,158 etc and can easily drop in 37 here and there. But In a few years time, minus the 90,91,142,143, 150, 156, 158, HST, mk2,mk3,mk4, voyager& 37.. then your hobby has shrunk... despite the real railway growing... as it stands Accurascale are the only ones filling that gap with mk5’s, yet things like 180/185/195/700/717/802, Electrastars etc etc all exist.

 

 

 

 

Edited October 2, 2019 by adb968008

[Phil Parker]

3 hours ago, adb968008 said:

Your preaching to the converted here, I’ve been advocating on these pages replacing DCC with Wi-fi operated dead rail models, bluetooth speakers etc, and use of Augmented reality for a few years now.

Flat zero interest, plus added humour is your welcome.

if you recall in the Hornby Rockumentary Simon even went to a VR studio but largely laughed it off as a comedy sketch that it doesn’t relate to his generation and so didn’t relate it to the hobby, in short it’s clear they don’t get it and see no vision for it at the current time, given their current position and the UKs economy its justifiable, even if its already been adopted in Europe and the US.

 

That would be apart from the Scalextric App Control System. 

 

Maybe they aren't doing this for trains yet, but Hornby is more than just trains. I'll stand by my view that the Wacky Races set is the best thing they have done for years. Easy to sell at full RRP, not whinges about detail and I bet a lot cheaper to make than a locomotive.

[Barry Ten]

Having been spending some time putting decoders into older Scalextric cars (easy if you've ever hard-wired a loco), I'm wondering if there's any development going into in-car cameras for drivers' eye view racing. It would seem like a logical step into VR that still relates to physical toys.

[ellocoloco]

6 hours ago, adb968008 said:

I do also think Hornby’s overseas HO brands have unexplored potential,

 

Completely agree.

 

There has been very little mention of Hornby International's range in the above thread and its worth remembering that although the OO range contributes by far the most to Hornby's bottom line, it is but one part of the company.

 

Whilst the Continental markets, with the exception of Germany, are smaller that the UK there could be plenty of opportunities for Hornby in the future. I for one would welcome the RENFE 309 and 310 types under the Electrotren banner as well as series 2000 ARCO coaches and some wagons. I imagine the are also gaps in the French and Italian ranges that could provide popular choices. Germany might prove more difficult as would the US, but if the right prototype is picked and the model well executed, these markets may well provide scope for additional sales.

 

I would be interested to see the sales/order quantities for the OO Romanian electric loco listed this year! This type of model has been done before with the Lima HGK 66 and Bachmann GIF 37 amongst others, so I would expect them be 'odd' novelties. Could there potentially be a market for HO British models in the future to service the countries where these locos have found second lives!! An EE37 could be sold through Jouef, Electrotren and Rivarossi to represent those operated in France, Spain and Italy..........

 

The Autumn/Winter Hornby Int'l announcements seem to have been well received on the Spanish Forums (the only other ones I read) Many modeller are simply glad that Hornby (Electrotren) is still going and have some new tooling announcements. The news that the company is in a better position will be welcomed by modellers in many countries and I hope this continues.

 

I look forward to Hornby's plans for 2020.

[mdvle]

3 hours ago, ellocoloco said:

Germany might prove more difficult as would the US, but if the right prototype is picked and the model well executed, these markets may well provide scope for additional sales.

 

The US would be an interesting possibility, but I suspect too risky for Hornby at the moment given the lack of stable political leadership.  When / if the US electorate sorts that out might be a time for a re-evaluation.

 

(as an aside, and Hornby isn't in the financial place to do it, but what the US really needs is someone with the financial resources to come in and attempt to do to either O or maybe better S scale what Heljan did for UK O - provide a line of scale, detailed models for the more serious modeller who would like to work in something bigger than HO but doesn't want the compromises that the 3-rail stuff have).

 

 

[mdvle]

10 hours ago, adb968008 said:

You may be right about the longevity of steam, as long as it relates to preserved steam, however weekly email streams of discounted black pre 1948 steam and odd ball non-preserved steam, or 0-6-0 freight locos say to my inbox that this particukar market  is over supplied, by everyone, not just Hornby.

 

But there is a difference between companies making more models than the market can absorb, and there being no market for those models.

 

More realistic production numbers, while still in sufficient quantities to be profitable, can solve the problem you describe (if there is a market).

 

10 hours ago, adb968008 said:

In the longer term without 21st century modellers, those born post 2000 are adults already, there is no future. We are close to a time where all rolling stock, save a few engineers wagons, were built post-BR on the network,.. Post 2000 modelling already is a compromise of majority BR-Era models in privatisation era liveries, scattered with a few privatisation toolings.. 170,350/450,390,395 etc. But today’s network is vastly larger than that.

 

I am more optimistic, but I also think that the hobby has changed from the past.

 

New people to the hobby (and there are new people entering it) aren't coming in from the historical methods of Christmas Train Set or from watching real trains.  They are arriving via social media, whether it be YouTube or Facebook or any other options, and thus they are not arriving with the same built in biases to liking what they experienced as a teenager.

 

Some of them are looking for ways to extend their modern, digital lifestyle into a more physical hobby.  Others will be looking for a more analog hobby much like some music people are returning to vinyl records over cloud based music.

 

Others will be coming into the hobby as it is a way to use their new interest / hobby of 3D printing in a constructive way, or their laser cutter.

 

Given this, there is no reason to expect that people entering the hobby today will model what they see around them.

 

 

[Phil Parker]

37 minutes ago, mdvle said:

as an aside, and Hornby isn't in the financial place to do it, but what the US really needs is someone with the financial resources to come in and attempt to do to either O or maybe better S scale what Heljan did for UK O - provide a line of scale, detailed models for the more serious modeller who would like to work in something bigger than HO but doesn't want the compromises that the 3-rail stuff have

 

I know at least one company has seriously considered it and been told very firmly by the trade that it would never sell. In O, Americans like 3 rails and coarse-scale.