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Hornby 2020 range "reveal date" = 6th Jan


phil gollin
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Five pages of speculation one day after the announcement of an announcement. This one’s set to run and run like Montezuma's revenge. In more ways than one. 

Edited by truffy
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3 hours ago, The Johnster said:

But when the new broom talks about shortened development time, is he white man speaking with forked tongue (i.e a skilled, experienced, and highly professional businessman and marketeer)?  If by 'development time' he means 'the time between announcing the model and getting it to market', as happened with the Collett Suburbans, 48DS, and others from last year's announcement, this could suggest that he's got a class 120 dmu, a W, and a full range of toplights under wraps almost ready to go having been worked on in R & D for a couple of years.  A wise MD making announcements in a competitive market speaks the truth, and nothing but the truth, but is a fool if he speaks the whole truth...

 

You are spot on about taking care in the hi-fi area, though; it is a relatively short time since many of us came to regard red box as a safe pair of hands in this regard, and their response to better models from other manufacturers was tardy and for many years did not give the impression that there was any real change of corporate culture behind it, so any backsliding would be very bad for the image and regard in which we now hold them.  

 

If there is a culture problem at Hornby, it is the residual belief that lo-fi models are not produced by anyone else in the UK market, hence the field is theirs, and that easy money can be made from it using redacted items which were past their sell by date 40 years ago.  The result is 'Railroad', to my mind a cause of split corporate personality as even Hornby don't seem to know what it's actually for.  There are A4s and Flying Scotsmen competing for market share with hi-fi versions in Hornby's own catalogue, and the Crosti has been taken out of Railroad status and is now alleged to be a full fat hi-fi model.  When Bachmann dipped their toes in the starter set xmas tree circle world a few years back, they used freelance models that did not compete with anything else they were doing!

Development time is the period from starting from starting with the idea to the model year in which the model is released.  With Hornby until this year'sTerrier that period was around 2-3 years and could be 3 years and a bit between start with idea to model actually appearing if it is released late in the year it is announced for.  Thus for example the prairie has seemingly slipped as the final detail work ready to ensure progress towards tooling was some while back which would have allowed it to have appeared by now.

 

With a shortened period of development what comes next year from the new regime will have been developed from initial idea in a shorter time than that because the new regime hasn't been in power that long.  OK they could well pick-up items on which work had already been done under the previous management (as are virtually all of this year's new releases - as opposed to reissues of previous models) but if they are completely new ideas they'll be ciming out of a shorter development period of research, drawing office work, and tooling development.  the time from announcement to appearance in the shops will only be short if the development work had been completed a long while previously and production and livery samples samples had been approved in time to allow production to commence.

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Something special,  well SK getting a gold plated watch and being shown the door to me would be something really special.  In the past SK was portrayed as the one who was keeping Hornby aligned with its public and yet little changed over his period of tenure.  Many saw him as the light on the hill reminding us that he was the one keeping the dream alive,  the driving force behind Hornby.   Since returning to Hornby I have seen videos of him being interviewed and he displays a lack of interest in the product.    Hornby needs to move on and rid itself of the past as there are a lot of skeletons in those cupboards in Margate that need to be cleaned out,  along with some ancient tooling that is no longer valid.

 

Edit:  further,  something special might be looking at the current pricing schedule.   A typical MSRP on a locomotive these days is around GBP160.00 - 180.00.     A typical coach is around GBP45.00 - 50.00 and a basic piece of rolling stock around GBP20.00 with many items around GBP40.00 - 50.00 each.   A five piece set at GBP400.00 powered by a 50 cent motor to me just does not justify the price.  Hornby's ancient Dapol tooling of the 68 ft LMS restaurant coach with plastic wheels is marketed alongside a full fat Pullman coach with lighting and metal wheels for the same price.  How realistic is this?  A typical six coach train these days will set you back nearly GBP500.00 MSRP.  This is $1000.00 in my money  (a lot higher if sourced locally given the total apathy towards discounting downunder).   A goods rake of say twenty open wagons with a steam loco will cost you around GBP550.00 MSRP and this is just a basic train.  If you wanted to model a modern image freight set then the price would be vastly higher. 

 

 Model trains were touted as being for the masses,  but today seems the exclusive property of the collector and the devout hobbyist with vast disposable income.   No wonder I paw over the pre-owned items lists as retail prices these days on new items are making me consider my interest in the hobby in general.   The hobby is never content with what they have,  there always has to be something new to purchase.   Like many I have more items than I could ever possibly use and yet there are many here who relish the idea of something new to add to their ever expanding inventories.  There is always that shiny bright object to get our attention and our money.   We criticise women for their shoes and handbags and yet excuse ourselves when the latest model railway release simply has to be purchased.

Edited by GWR-fan
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53 minutes ago, Clive Mortimore said:

You lot no nuffin, I have insider information. :secret: The pretty waitress at the Peking Authentic Canton Chinese Restaurant at the top of the High Street told me in total confidence her cousin who works in the factory where Hornby have their trains made told her other cousin who doesn't work in the factory where Hornby have there trains made told her as it is a special celebration of 100 years it is to be a class 100 DMU. :yahoo:

I’d happily have half a class 100. Namely a DMBS so it can masquerade as M53355 and be paired up with a class 105 DMCL (M53812) to form Newton Heath set N699. 
66738

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3 hours ago, Harlequin said:

Thinking outside the box:

 

They started in O gauge so it would be really striking for the "big" anniversary if they returned to the senior gauge!

 

Many more prototype gaps to be filled there...

 

 

Interesting idea, and given the market there is a lot that could possibly be done, particularly in steam.

 

The question is (which I have no idea) is the O market big enough for 3 RTR companies?

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1 hour ago, Phil Parker said:

How about the return of TT? You could tick the gold plated box too!

 

Tri-ang+TT+Golden+Train+01.jpg

 

Put me down for a set!

Well they did some serious market research a few years back into reintroducing TT (or 3mm scale models) but decided apparently that there wasn't enough interest there to justify tooling up a range of models.  That might well have changed, or it might not have changed, but 2020 will be the 63rd anniversary of its 1957 introduction and it doesn't really fit into the Hornby centenary pattern as it was very much a Triang product but it would definitely be something 'new and exciting'.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, The Stationmaster said:

Well they did some serious market research a few years back into reintroducing TT (or 3mm scale models) but decided apparently that there wasn't enough interest there to justify tooling up a range of models.  That might well have changed, or it might not have changed, but 2020 will be the 63rd anniversary of its 1957 introduction and it doesn't really fit into the Hornby centenary pattern as it was very much a Triang product but it would definitely be something 'new and exciting'.

 

TT could be very interesting, you could with a fresh start get away from many of the compromises that cause at least some people so much angst in OO.

 

The question though is how much new tooled product would be required to kickstart a market large enough to justify the tooling cost of new items and track?   

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3 hours ago, wombatofludham said:

On the Dolgellau group we have a very committed 12 year old who is already exhibiting at local shows.  Although he enjoys operating our steam locos his main interest is the current scene, in particular "boring units" as some call them.  He's a capable repainter, having recently painted a Bachmann 158 into the latest TfW "T-Bag" livery, and even manages to solder and hard-wire DCC chips into the older stock, which seeing as I've never managed to acquire the skill of soldering despite over 40 years of trying, is going some.  He is an active, young modeller not afraid to do what some on here archly and patronisingly call "real modelling" but doesn't see any relevance in steam for him. 

 

But he is also already served well with most of the relevant stuff already available in RTR.

 

The gaps in the non-steam market really tend towards either really new stuff (the Class 230 would be a risky choice at the moment without giving it a couple of years for the real things to settle in and know what tooling is needed), or multiple units in the 4 or more carriages that have pricing issues in being brought to market.  Or are so regional that both price and lack of interest cause problems.

 

3 hours ago, wombatofludham said:

We also have a separate "come and play" layout in a side room for youngsters to have a go on.  We have two Railroad steam outline trains (a Holden 101 and a BR "Pug") together with an ancient Hornby Class 142 and Lima Class 37.  Not scientific, but the two most popular choices for the youngsters are the two diesels even though they are most definitely not "modern image".

 

Might also reflect the available choices, might reflect how colourful they are.  Many options.

 

3 hours ago, wombatofludham said:

There seems to be a disconnect between the majority of posters on here and the world outside when it comes to post steam (and can we ditch the "modern image" phrase?  The highest polling non-steam item in the recent wishlist was the Class 120 dmu. 

 

Partially a reflection that much of the diesel loco (and even electric) classes have been done and are available thanks to the standardization of 1 operator.  The steam era, with 5 different "mainstream" buyers (BR plus the big 4), and then an abundance of pre-grouping sources, has a diversity of prototypes the diesel era doesn't.

 

Having said that, what RMweb reflects more than anything else is the part of the market is more serious about trying to recreate the real railway(*), which means getting the exact model needed in the exact correct livery, and attempting to recreate prototypically correct track layouts as much as our limited space allows.

 

To that end, the steam and British Rail eras, with the reliance on engines and loose rolling stock, offer far more options from an operations perspective than the current railway with its multiple units going back and forth ever will.

 

So those eras are unlikely to ever fully go away.

 

 

Quote

 

 

It first ran over 60 years ago.  To put that in context, when the dmu was truly modern image that would have been the same as calling a Precedent "modern image", which is patent nonsense).  There are a lot of younger enthusiasts out there who don't come on this forum but have their own social media platforms, like the Model Railway YouTube Group.  In fact I know of several older modellers in the 40s who model sectorisation who don't use this forum or who have stopped coming here because it doesn't meet their interests

 

And yet look at all the froth around Accurascale and their Mk5 announcements.

 

So there are still "modern" modellers on RMweb, and like any public forum where the users provide the content that it is likely if they left because of a lack of content that interests them then it is because they weren't generating said content.

 

Far more likely is the reality that they have gone to YouTube or Facebook, places that are in some ways easier to participate in (they have smartphone apps for a start) but also places that thanks to their size can turn a blind eye to the frequent copyright violations that many people on those platforms persist in doing.

 

 

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The upshot of all this, and Hornby clearly know this based on last year's programme, is that Hornby need to be in the contemporary scene with adequate, pocket-money priced items, as well as developing a range of higher quality, more historic non-steam items to complement their extensive steam catalogue, to cater for us upcoming baby-boomers who will, let's face it, be probably the last generation able to retire with a disposable income to fund a hobby, but for whom steam is a passing interest, more as a "fun-fair" ride.  of course "baby-boomers" will still have interest in steam era layouts as I do, but there will be a growing interest in post-steam models, something Bachmann and Heljan have picked up on but Hornby seem to have had a more patchy response to.  Whilst I doubt Hornby would go for a 319 seeing as Bachmann already have one planned for Graham Farish so could easily rescale the CADs for an OO version ( and which would be an absolute no brainer...) I think they could easily go for the "PEP" type units, seeing as they are in the headlines now following their withdrawals.  They neatly span BR Blue, Sectorisation, Privatisation, cover the country from Glasgow to the South Coast, were highly modular and standardised, and come in 3 and 4 car flavours with more liveries than you could shake a stick at.

 

I suspect there will be a lot of industry examination of how successful (or not) Accurascale is with their Mk5 offerings from a financial perspective.

 

The prevailing wisdom in much of the industry (and in fairness reinforced by the frequent moaning about prices seen on RMweb and other social media) is that customers won't pay the additional costs of longer multiple unit trains.

 

If Accurascale proves this assumption to be incorrect then it could open up the possibilities of a lot more stuff in the DMU/EMU ranges that don't have the same above average appeal of the 80x units.

 

 

 

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21 minutes ago, stevegr said:

Hornby 100 years?

 

Should it not be Rovex 80 ish years or Wrenn not that long? lol

 

Nope. As regards model railways, Hornby was first used in 1920 and has been in constant use since. Bar maybe a few months here and there.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hornby_Railways

 

 

 

Jason

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2 hours ago, 9402 Fredrick said:

Two things 1, it's the Princess Royal Class not the Coronation/Duchess Class that were announced with the Large Prairies and Terriers this year

2, Hornby could pull off a better 78xx/Manor as their Grange Class has really well done GWR Stephenson valve gear compared to Bachmann's rendition, plus they have the correct tender type for them too, plus better modelled coaching stock for them.

Apologies you are correct on point 1. Thanks for clarifying.
You may be right on point 2.

 

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9 minutes ago, Steamport Southport said:

 

Nope. As regards model railways, Hornby was first used in 1920 and has been in constant use since. Bar maybe a few months here and there.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hornby_Railways

 

 

 

Jason

 

In the same way that British Airways is 100 years old . Funny in my day I thought we had BEA and BOAC . 

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5 minutes ago, 9402 Fredrick said:

No worries, also if Hornby is doing the 78xx, we'll still have it sooner than Bachmann tbh.

Manor would be fine with me but an Aberdare, Bulldog or 1101 class Dock tank even better and some decent GW restaurant cars and Collett full brakes. Don’t get me started on Super Saloons.....

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1 hour ago, mdvle said:

 

Interesting idea, and given the market there is a lot that could possibly be done, particularly in steam.

 

The question is (which I have no idea) is the O market big enough for 3 RTR companies?

I imagine a one off anniversary special collector’s item to test the market.
 

Something pre-grouping with lots of polished metal and intricate lining. Something with great proportions and huge driving wheels. Something that relates to their existing range but breaks new ground in O.

 

Maybe something like a Dean Single in 4-2-2 form?

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