Hornby 2020 range "reveal date" = 6th Jan

[Watto1990]

Thought I was the only one to have spotted that! In any case, I reckon there’s going to be some very interesting announcement coming in January. 

[rob D2]

Please maximise the use of your existing tooling by releasing more than 2 class 31s....before someone else steps in and makes one

[Steamport Southport]

Rocket? If it was to happen I would expect it nearer to 2030 personally.

 

 

 

Jason

[wombatofludham]

4 hours ago, phil-b259 said:

 

Suddenly swamping the market with lots of DMUs is NOT going to keep Hornby in business - it needs a portfolio that sells well. A sure fire way of making them disappear is to pander to what you say you want - for all the bluster steam still remains a very profitable segment of the model market despite the protestations of many that its going to disappear due to "the folk that 'remember it fist hand dieing off'

 

Hornbys difficulties did NOT stem from over concentrating on the steam market - they came from chronic mismanagement which has now been rectified and as such there is no reason to not believe they will be with us for many years to come.

 

Now thats not to say a high detail first generation DMU wouldn't go amiss from the range, nor a contemporary EMU*, but they will only come f Hornby decide they will be profitable enough for the company. The fact they haven't done to date suggest that other products (including steam) are better at generating wealth.

 

 

* Bachmann and recent moves by other manufacturers are doing reasonably well at covering the significant second generation units.

 

 

 

 

I never suggested swamping the market with DMUs so I don't know where that came from.  I pointed out previously there is a younger market that has been slightly neglected by Hornby until last year who want things that are more relevant to them.  If - and it is a big if - Hornby were to be able to design something like a "PEP" unit which has covered over 40 years in service right up to the current day, in a way that could be produced at a low entry price for pocket-money modellers, but also in a higher detail format for those who can afford it, they would be able to broaden the range in a way that satisfies an emerging market (electric traction) and the younger market, who don't just want high speed glossy trains - kids loved my old King's Oak layout at exhibition because they were seeing trains they recognised.  No one is saying that all future investment should go into dmu and emus, and I never said that.

However, Hornby's past record on non-steam items is a bit patchy - and the fact that Bachmann, Heljan and others are making a name for themselves and doing reasonably well in the non-steam market must show there is demand.  Are we saying Hornby shouldn't go after a slice of that market?  Bachmann have cleaned up the first generation DMU market, yet Hornby seems to not want to touch it in spite of Bachmann continuing to put money into developing new models like the Class 117.  Hornby did release the stunning Class 87 and deservedly got praise for it (although the DCC arrangements are an own goal) but only after Bachmann gambled successfully on the 85 and put their money on the 90.  

I suppose this year will be a key one for Hornby, probably the first full year which can truly be said to be entirely down to the new management team which took over a couple of years back, if we assume it takes a couple of years to develop a model from concept to announcement.  However, my last Hornby purchase was the Class87 and the first six months of next year's investment program are reserved for Bachmann and Heljan, so to be honest I'll be logging in on 6th January more out of curiosity than expectation.

PS I don't just have an interest in modern stuff, but again, there's been nothing from Hornby over the past few years that has had any significance for me, apart from the Fowler tendered BR 8F, and most of my steam expenditure has gone again to Bachmann!

[GWR-fan]

6 hours ago, gwrrob said:

 

Hornby have a history of doing Pullmans so why not do the ones that went to Torquay.....

 

A very, very limited operating timeframe and then could be reliveried into Southern livery possibly,  perhaps hauled by "Lord Nelson" without his deflectors.  

[atom3624]

Is this a speculation / reverse marketing thread to benefit Hornby?

 

6 pages of pure speculation.

 

It does show the enthusiasm for what many consider was a 'closet hobby' - obviously far from it.

 

Perhaps Hornby have several 'certains' and several 'possible production' options - a thread like this could benefit them a lot - but also possibly competitors as well, if they're faster to it!!

 

Al.

[ndg910]

5 hours ago, GWR-fan said:

 

A very, very limited operating timeframe and then could be reliveried into Southern livery possibly,  perhaps hauled by "Lord Nelson" without his deflectors.  

But if I remember correctly only two body shells that covered them all. Once those are tooled, the liveries open up in front of you ripe for the picking! You do of course need the two full brakes as well but they are doing those anyhow - aren’t you Mr Koehler???

[Ouroborus]

11 hours ago, Legend said:

 

In the same way that British Airways is 100 years old . Funny in my day I thought we had BEA and BOAC . 

 

My wife doesn't have the same name as when she was a little girl, but she is much the same person underneath the bonnet

[GWR-fan]

12 hours ago, Legend said:

 

In the same way that British Airways is 100 years old . Funny in my day I thought we had BEA and BOAC . 

 

I appreciate that you did state "in my day",  but BA could be logically taken back to Imperial Airways starting 1924,  nearly 100 years.  I did enjoy working on BA aircraft for over thirty years operating to Sydney with the Conway powered B707,  then the "hush power" VC-10 and then the various incantations of B747,  including the ones painted with brooms due health and safety restrictions.  Memories.   I believe that KLM being the oldest airline is about due for its centenary and Qantas next year from memory.

[brushman47544]

12 hours ago, Tiny151 said:

Given all the Rocket speculation, here's an image from the BBC documentary earlier this year.

 

What? The cricketer on the Penny Farthing? Or the rifle?

[The Black Hat]

If I was going to take an educated guess on Hornby's next move mine would be:

 

New Manor - ties in with other Western releases and gives it a mid size engine for the range.

New tooled Black 5 - redo one of these to the same standard as the Duchess that went down very well.

Outside chance:

NER / LNE J21 - something else to go on to the chassis of the J36/J15. Would be an inspired choice to go alongside the NER range they have that they gave a rest to last year.
Hawksworth 15xx tank - something different as Hornby take aim at small tanks.

Q-class - Something else Southern to join the ranks. Personally think it should do ok but think Southern is saturated.

P2/2 - following on from previous P2 release.

 

Re-liveries:

 

Class 50 - Intercity, 50033 in Large Logo, GBRF

Class 66 - CEMEX, DB Large Logo, Freightliner Green

Class 56 - DC rail grey, Dutch, EWS

Class 60 - DB Cargo, GBRf, Colas unbranded
 

MK. 2 stock - Great Western, Virgin, Anglia
Class 156 - Northern, Anglia,
 

Stock:

New HAA wagon?
New NER coaching stock?

 

Don't think there will be much in terms of new diesel. Think Hornby will go for a few steam engines done but will do a lot of diesels with re-release and new liveries.

 

Not long to see if I'm right or wrong...
 

Edited November 14, 2019 by The Black Hat

[MikeParkin65]

13 minutes ago, The Black Hat said:

New tooled Black 5 - redo one of these to the same standard as the Duchess that went down very well.


 

I just started applying the BrassMasters kit to one of mine so yes - almost guaranteed lol

[The Black Hat]

54 minutes ago, MikeParkin65 said:

I just started applying the BrassMasters kit to one of mine so yes - almost guaranteed lol

 

Something is really making me think B16...

[No Decorum]

1 hour ago, The Black Hat said:

If I was going to take an educated guess on Hornby's next move mine would be:

 

New Manor - ties in with other Western releases and gives it a mid size engine for the range.

New tooled Black 5 - redo one of these to the same standard as the Duchess that went down very well.

Outside chance:

NER / LNE J21 - something else to go on to the chassis of the J36/J15. Would be an inspired choice to go alongside the NER range they have that they gave a rest to last year.
Hawksworth 15xx tank - something different as Hornby take aim at small tanks.

Q-class - Something else Southern to join the ranks. Personally think it should do ok but think Southern is saturated.

P2/2 - following on from previous P2 release.

 

Re-liveries:

 

Class 50 - Intercity, 50033 in Large Logo, GBRF

Class 66 - CEMEX, DB Large Logo, Freightliner Green

Class 56 - DC rail grey, Dutch, EWS

Class 60 - DB Cargo, GBRf, Colas unbranded
 

MK. 2 stock - Great Western, Virgin, Anglia
Class 156 - Northern, Anglia,
 

Stock:

New HHA wagon?
New NER coaching stock?

 

Don't think there will be much in terms of new diesel. Think Hornby will go for a few steam engines done but will do a lot of diesels with re-release and new liveries.

 

Not long to see if I'm right or wrong...
 

Interesting speculations. As for the much requested Manor, the old Mainline one is quite decent, if not up to modern standards. The risk for Hornby would be that Bachmann might put a new chassis under it and turn it out with a paint finish much better than Hornby seems able to achieve. On the other hand, the Hornby Saint isn’t up to much and could do with a new tooling. Personal bias, of course. I like the Manor I have but couldn’t bring myself to get a Hornby Saint, even though I rather fancy a Saint.

[Clive Mortimore]

Update on my insider information, the pretty waitress at the Peking Authentic Canton Chinese Restaurant at the top of the High Street who has a cousin who works in the factory that makes Hornby's trains, who told her other cousin who doesn't work in the Hornby factory about the class 100. Told me last night that there was no number 89. So all you chaps hoping for the badger (class 89) looks like your out of luck.

 

Oddly I didn't get my crispy beef in black bean sauce that I ordered. 

[The Johnster]

7 hours ago, atom3624 said:

Is this a speculation / reverse marketing thread to benefit Hornby?

 

6 pages of pure speculation.

 

It does show the enthusiasm for what many consider was a 'closet hobby' - obviously far from it.

 

Perhaps Hornby have several 'certains' and several 'possible production' options - a thread like this could benefit them a lot - but also possibly competitors as well, if they're faster to it!!

 

Al.

I can't see that this thread is intended to particularly benefit Hornby, or to do them any harm either for that matter.  It is, as you say, pure speculation; H have said they are going to make a big announcement on 6th January and we are all sucked in to the asking what we think it's going to be.  So we take the opportunity to wishlist and to suggest models we think might be produced.  Only Hornby know what the announcement is and, given their success in hiding most of last year's new stuff, they are unlikely to be drawn out on the matter.

 

This froth does raise market awareness of course, but the secrecy is to prevent being gazumped by competitors.  Bachmann seem particularly vulnerable to this, with very long periods between announcements and shelves.  There have been plenty of past examples of duplication where both parties have secretly developed the same model.  Hornby are quite aggressive in this respect, witness the spat with Rails of Sheffield about the Terrier, and they undoubtedly held the 5101 back to get their Terrier out before Rails'; now they are giving that project priority to beat Dapol to market.  

 

The 5101/61xx is an important release, because as well as being a potentially popular model in it's own right, the mech and chassis can also be used for 43xx (as Dapol are already doing) and Manor.  The challenge for these locos is to get the motor inside without fattening the smokebox like Mainline had to, so a 43xx is a good starting point.  But none of us know if Hornby, Dapol, or anyone else is considering a Manor, just that we keep asking for one in polls.  On the principle that the best sellers are those with the longest working lives, largest class numbers, and greatest geographical spread, 43xx and large prairies are a much better bet than the relatively latecomer Manors, but the Manor, suitable for smaller layouts but retaining the glamour of a named tender loco, are popular because of that.

[The Johnster]

37 minutes ago, No Decorum said:

As for the much requested Manor, the old Mainline one is quite decent, if not up to modern standards.

The old Mainline Manor and 43xx are both hobbled by their chassis, of course, but the main argument against Bachmann issuing either with retooled modern underpinnings is that the fireboxes are fattened to accommodate the old Mainline pancake and those awful plastic spur gears...

 

So these locos need complete top to bottom end to end new toolings, and have to be started from scratch; I'd guess that Bachmann are not in the game and that the old toolings give them no advantage whatever.  Were they to announce a new Manor now, given their known long lead times Hornby or Dapol would be in like Flynn to gazump them, having already got a working chassis on the go.  The 43xx is 'pending' from Dap and thus even less likely from Baccy.

[friscopete]

TT would be a great idea.I suggest a FFFFFFFFrying Scotsman and some coaches  .Sadly the girl in my local Chinese will only give me the info after I had given them my passport for a few weeks and one of my dogs for New Year dinner.

Edited November 14, 2019 by friscopete

[mdvle]

34 minutes ago, The Johnster said:

I'd guess that Bachmann are not in the game and that the old toolings give them no advantage whatever.  Were they to announce a new Manor now, given their known long lead times Hornby or Dapol would be in like Flynn to gazump them, having already got a working chassis on the go.  The 43xx is 'pending' from Dap and thus even less likely from Baccy.

 

The thing to consider with Bachmann is that they essentially took last year off from the new tooling announcements to allow themselves to work on the backlog of items that their China problems introduced, and more importantly I seem to recall a report that the new production capacity was finally producing results and that items were getting through the various stages in a reasonable time frame.

 

If I have recalled the above correctly this means that any announcements from Bachmann shouldn't have the long delivery times, and that it may be possible that they could surprise people with something new that is already at a sample stage.

 

Another consideration for attempting to beat Bachmann to market is that so far at least Bachmann haven't shown any interest in backing down, hence the 121/122/24 and possibly other duplication so you may get an advantage of releasing first but you possibly lose a lot of the benefits of being the only source of second, third, etc. runs.

[The Johnster]

Oh, I'm not suggesting that blue box are gonna lay down and think of England.  They have proved that they are willing to go head to head many times, and are a highly competitive player.  But it remains to be seen if their lead time problems are over, or if they will alter their previous policy of early announcements of models at an early stage of development.  The policy of staking their claim to a loco and keeping their fingers crossed worked in the case of the 94xx (come on, you didn't think I was going to waste an opportunity to bring that up, did you?) but they might not be so lucky next time with the 2721...

[autocoach]

20 hours ago, Steamport Southport said:

 

Bachmann already do one. As do Hornby under Rivarossi.

 

If you mean the 2-8-0 you may have to wait another 60 years.   

 

 

 

Jason

Hornby could market the 3.5 mm model of a USA S-160 and most collectors would be none the wiser....

[tomparryharry]

On 14/11/2019 at 15:13, mdvle said:

 

The thing to consider with Bachmann is that they essentially took last year off from the new tooling announcements to allow themselves to work on the backlog of items that their China problems introduced, and more importantly I seem to recall a report that the new production capacity was finally producing results and that items were getting through the various stages in a reasonable time frame.

 

If I have recalled the above correctly this means that any announcements from Bachmann shouldn't have the long delivery times, and that it may be possible that they could surprise people with something new that is already at a sample stage.

 

Another consideration for attempting to beat Bachmann to market is that so far at least Bachmann haven't shown any interest in backing down, hence the 121/122/24 and possibly other duplication so you may get an advantage of releasing first but you possibly lose a lot of the benefits of being the only source of second, third, etc. runs.

Don't mention the 94! I think you've got away with it.....  Don't mention the Bulldog, either.......

[adb968008]

On 13/11/2019 at 19:28, mdvle said:

 

The prevailing wisdom in much of the industry (and in fairness reinforced by the frequent moaning about prices seen on RMweb and other social media) is that customers won't pay the additional costs of longer multiple unit trains.

I disagree, and indeed Hornby probably has the best experience with this...

 

Theyve successfully produced (and generally sold out) 8 different HST liveries on a few years.. this years LNER mk3’s are sold out before released...

Add to that the Brighton Belle, 3 successive runs...

Add to that the class 800

Add to that the class 390

Add to that the class 395

 

Theyve adopted quite a reasonable model, of making a minimum bundle that sells to get it on your trainset /layout, then offer add-on’s to expand as much as you like.

Rapido also used the same tactic with the APT-E.

 

Selling a large bundle may be risky, breaking it down lowers the cost... Triang started that practice with its Met-Cam DMU and selling the 3rd car separate, it’s nothing new, but no one else (except Rapido) has really sucessfully copied it.

[adb968008]

On 14/11/2019 at 12:03, The Black Hat said:

Stock:
New HAA wagon?

 

Interesting guess, considering theres a HAA on display at Warley this year.

[adb968008]

On 13/11/2019 at 20:16, Steamport Southport said:

 

Bachmann already do one. As do Hornby under Rivarossi.

 

If you mean the 2-8-0 you may have to wait another 60 years.   

 

 

 

Jason

There already is on in HO, made by Roco.

 

The model is absolutely fantastic, pulls well, glides along the track, excellent engineered, super responsive, low geared and moves on next to nothing.. but it has all the things British modellers resent... tender drive, traction tyres and a high price.

 

 

Edited November 16, 2019 by adb968008