Hornby 2020 range "reveal date" = 6th Jan

[adb968008]

26 minutes ago, MikeHunter said:

I'd like them to produce a new tooling of the 2P to modern standards, a Stanier period 3 buffet car, 3rd open, and a push-pull set. All would fly off the shelves.

Yes to all, plus Stanier and Fowler 2-6-2ts and Tilbury tanks.

 

of all this lot, I think only the Stanier buffet has chance.

[The Johnster]

Don't forget, chaps, that a model that flies off the shelves is not necessarily a success for the manufacturer.  It is for the marketing department of course, but success depends on profit margins, not the number of models sold.  This in turn depends on keeping production costs low, which in turn means that the model is designed with as few separate parts as possible to be cheap to assemble, and the parts are designed to be cheaply produced, all of which mitigates against detail and realism.  

 

So producing an RTR model successfully is mostly a balancing act between cost and detail.  The model's popularity is a secondary consideration, though of course nobody's going to produce something that is overtly unpopular.  But, how would you define a model that is overtly unpopular, bearing in mind that your own individual tastes don't count any more than mine does.  

Edited December 16, 2019 by The Johnster

[Dunsignalling]

57 minutes ago, The Johnster said:

Don't forget, chaps, that a model that flies off the shelves is not necessarily a success for the manufacturer.  It is for the marketing department of course, but success depends on profit margins, not the number of models sold.  This in turn depends on keeping production costs low, which in turn means that the model is designed with as few separate parts as possible to be cheap to assemble, and the parts are designed to be cheaply produced, all of which mitigates against detail and realism.  

 

So producing an RTR model successfully is mostly a balancing act between cost and detail.  The model's popularity is a secondary consideration, though of course nobody's going to produce something that is overtly unpopular.  But, how would you define a model that is overtly unpopular, bearing in mind that your own individual tastes don't count any more than mine does.  

Agreed, The problem is that potential popularity (and the opposite) seem to have become almost unfathomable these days. It's probably fairer to say that almost anything will find an audience, with success depending on correctly guessing the size of that audience. Producing enough to satisfy it but not so many as to be left with unsold stock that eats into the profit margin must be the aim.  

 

Much easier said than done, and there are probably more different ways Hornby try to separate the sheep from the goats than we can imagine.

 

A classic method is to make items that "go with" models they've already done. Something fairly recent is ideal, especially if a loco broke new ground in some way with owners having been offered relatively little in the way of partnering models for it.  The opportunity is sometimes missed, though; e.g. when Hornby's rebuilt MN and air-smoothed Light Bulleids emerged (2001-3), I'd wager Bachmann benefitted more than Hornby from on-sales of coaches to run with them. Hornby have become much sharper at this nowadays and quite possibly sold more H Class tanks as a result of Bachmann making their Birdcage coaches than would have otherwise been the case.

 

Another good target is niches that have been well catered-for previously but not had much attention for a while. There will usually be some pent-up demand to be satisfied. This is where the "fill-in" models such as catering vehicles can score. By their very nature, these cannot be expected to sell in the numbers that their "ordinary" predecessors have, but will often stimulate repeat purchases of the latter if a further batch is run to coincide with the new model.

 

John

 

Edited December 16, 2019 by Dunsignalling

[Legend]

I’m hoping the J36 May have stimulated the Scottish market . Although I’m not seeing a lot of evidence of that. It would be so nice to have a rich Caledonian Blue loco. A Dunalastair . An 812 class would be and ideal shoe in , but unlikely given the Rails/Bachmann edition , although still a long way off and pretty expensive. Please no more Caley 123 or 0-4-0 pugs . Failing anything Caley , maybe an NBR Glen or a Jones Goods 

Edited December 16, 2019 by Legend

[gc4946]

There's still a fair number of J36s available from both Rails and Hattons. Currently Rails discounts the LNER and NBR "Maude" J36s,

Hattons discounts the LNER and BR early crest "Haig" versions. 

 

I hope Hornby follows this up with a "Glen" announcement on the 6th January but suspect it won't happen, maybe in 2021 instead. 

Hornby might have a Caley loco lined up, probably the 0-4-4T because one is preserved at Bo'ness. It would sell well in Caley blue in its own right, and would also sell well in LMS and BR liveries as companions to Hornby's own LMS Stanier carriages.

[ThaneofFife]

On 09/12/2019 at 00:43, Steamport Southport said:

 

I think you need to buy a dictionary or go back to school.

 

 

Belief is a statement of faith not fact. You can believe in fairies or God for example, you don't have to ask Wabtec if fairies exist. 

 

BELIEVE from Collins Dictionary

 

1) If you believe that something is true, you think that it is true, but you are not sure.

 

2) If you believe someone or if you believe what they say or write, you accept that they are telling the truth.

 

3) If you believe in fairies, ghosts, or miracles, you are sure that they exist or happen. If you believe in a god, you are sure of the existence of that god.

 

4) If you believe in a way of life or an idea, you are in favour of it because you think it is good or right

 

https://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/believe

 

Lighten up will you. He can believe all he wants.

 

 

 

Jason

brilliant jason.  and glad you was allowed to keep it real here.

[Big James]

After recently going to the bluebell it made me think I wonder if we might see the SECR O1 announced in the 6th. It is long lived, has numerous attractive liveries, was a mainstay of backwater Kent branches towards the end of their lives so could be justified for most BR(SR) layouts, plus they are smaller then the C class so ideal for most small home layouts and it could be turned out in the lined SECR livery that seems to sell really well. Plus it complements what’s already been produced namely the C, H & P with the D class on the horizon to. I did wonder if 65 had already been scanned. 
 

Big James

[Covkid]

On 16/12/2019 at 12:33, Dunsignalling said:

Exmouth Junction used the entire class for banking, shunting and station pilot work for a few years.

 

 

Ahh  OK.  I had this feeling some were based up in the outskirts of London - Feltham springs to mind

Thanks  

[Steamport Southport]

4 minutes ago, Covkid said:

 

 

Ahh  OK.  I had this feeling some were based up in the outskirts of London - Feltham springs to mind

Thanks  

 

They were mainly at Hither Green. Until replaced by Class 12 diesel shunters.

 

http://www.brdatabase.info/locoqry.php?action=class&id=308052&type=S&page=alloc

 

 

 

Jason

[The Stationmaster]

9 minutes ago, Covkid said:

 

 

Ahh  OK.  I had this feeling some were based up in the outskirts of London - Feltham springs to mind

Thanks  

Actually Hither Green - which had 5 of them in 1948.  they basically worked at various SED and SWD sheds v before going down to Exeter enmasse to replace various p Pre-Group designs on banking work although Exmouth Jcn and one or two throughout the 1950s before ending up with the entire class by 1960 after they had been displaced from elsewhere.  There was one at Brighton for while in the mid '50s but generally - as I've saiud - they were SED and SWD engines.

[Dunsignalling]

1 hour ago, Covkid said:

 

 

Ahh  OK.  I had this feeling some were based up in the outskirts of London - Feltham springs to mind

Thanks  

Feltham was the stronghold of the W Class 2-6-4Ts for many years. I'm not aware that a Z was ever based there, though it wasn't my patch. Their heavy shunters were the big G16 4-8-0Ts.

 

Up to the late fifties the Z Class was fairly well spread around; it was only towards the end of their careers they became concentrated at Exeter.

 

The 1955-6 Locoshed Book shows 30950 at Tonbridge, 30951 at Three Bridges, 30952/5 at Ashford (Kent), 30953 at Templecombe, 30954 Exmouth Junction, 30956 at Brighton and 30957 at Salisbury.

 

By 1959, Exmouth Junction had five, with 30951/2 at Ashford and 30954 at Salisbury. The following summer, all eight were at Exeter, whence they were all withdrawn towards the end of 1962. Their duties were initially taken over by W's displaced from Feltham by diesels, then by 8750 panniers (often in pairs on the banking turns).

 

John

Edited December 17, 2019 by Dunsignalling

[rovex]

Back on to the wishlist. A replacement GWR autocoach preferably an older version with full panelling or matchboard lower sides to differentiate it from the Bachmann Hawksworth version and the old tired airfix one

[Hroth]

Only 20 more days to the big reveal.

 

I note that there are little in the way of teasers about, not even a blurred Catalogue cover...

 

[gc4946]

I just realised 2020 is the centenary of the introduction of Urie's S15. 

So far, Hornby has only modelled Maunsell's later versions, will they release a model of the original 1920-21 batch?

[adb968008]

On 16/12/2019 at 16:52, The Johnster said:

 

So producing an RTR model successfully is mostly a balancing act between cost and detail.  The model's popularity is a secondary consideration, though of course nobody's going to produce something that is overtly unpopular.  But, how would you define a model that is overtly unpopular, bearing in mind that your own individual tastes don't count any more than mine does.  

I actually don’t think that is hard, indeed I find it quite easy, though my opinion often has offended those who thought differently.

 

but science is about precedent, look at other models in the market, look at competitors historical offerings and more importantly look at historical adverts for bargains.

 

Ive commented for a few years, that when I was involved in a shop in the early 90’s the worst performing models are plain black freight locos before 1948... going all the way back to Bachmanns V2 LNER number 3650 ...

roll on 30 years... look at Hattons, Rails & Kernow to find a take your pick of bargain plain black 1940’s locos.

 

But other metrics are useful.. when retooling a model, check the volume and price of the current incumbent model second hand.. as that will be your prime competitor.. if there’s thousands at less than half your planned rrp... then to me that’s a risk, as after announcement there’s going to be even more at even lower prices... and if there’s is not a flood.. that’s also a warning... as it means no ones clearing out to make space for yours.

 

finally.. don’t dismiss your customers as knowing nothing about what they want. They aren’t supermarket shoppers, many are highly educated from many different walks of life, as this is a hobby they can quite easily apply their individual experiences, and their purchases are not only non-disposable, they are very long life too which means “trends” often mean little...Many of us on here can spot a whopper from a winner, as that’s what a specialised forum of knowledge can do.

 

being closer to your customer is vital... there’s a definite correlation here between the more and less successful manufacturers of late.

 

 

Edited December 17, 2019 by adb968008

[it's-er]

It would be rather nice if Simon Kohler/Hornby feel as passionate in 2020 for their J83 0-6-0T, as they did for their Terrier in 2019.  The J83 must be one of the oldest of moulds still in current use, complete with moulded handrails ......

 

If Hornby decide to add something appropriate to their recent J36, then a Glen D34 would be wonderful!  Such Edwardian elegance and grace!

 

John Storey

[gc4946]

As well as LSWR's Urie S15, other loco classes also introduced 100 years ago in 2020:

 

Caledonian Rly Pickersgill 72 Class 4-4-0 

NER S3 (LNER B16) 4-6-0

GER D81 (LNER J20) 0-6-0 

Great North of Scotland Rly Class F (LNER D40) 4-4-0 - no. 49 (BR 62277) Gordon Highlander is preserved

 

The S15, Pickersgill and the B16 would all be popular choices.

Edited December 17, 2019 by gc4946

[The Johnster]

2 hours ago, rovex said:

Back on to the wishlist. A replacement GWR autocoach preferably an older version with full panelling or matchboard lower sides to differentiate it from the Bachmann Hawksworth version and the old tired airfix one

Diagram N please.  No.38 in BR crimson if we are being fussy...

 

Dapol are perhaps more likely to do this as they already market the ex-Lionheart model in 7mm.  

 

Actually I'd happily spring for a retooled to current standards A27/28/30 that made it's mind up about what it actually is.

[The Johnster]

2 hours ago, adb968008 said:

I actually don’t think that is hard, indeed I find it quite easy, though my opinion often has offended those who thought differently.

 

but science is about precedent, look at other models in the market, look at competitors historical offerings and more importantly look at historical adverts for bargains.

 

Ive commented for a few years, that when I was involved in a shop in the early 90’s the worst performing models are plain black freight locos before 1948... going all the way back to Bachmanns V2 LNER number 3650 ...

roll on 30 years... look at Hattons, Rails & Kernow to find a take your pick of bargain plain black 1940’s locos.

 

But other metrics are useful.. when retooling a model, check the volume and price of the current incumbent model second hand.. as that will be your prime competitor.. if there’s thousands at less than half your planned rrp... then to me that’s a risk, as after announcement there’s going to be even more at even lower prices... and if there’s is not a flood.. that’s also a warning... as it means no ones clearing out to make space for yours.

 

finally.. don’t dismiss your customers as knowing nothing about what they want. They aren’t supermarket shoppers, many are highly educated from many different walks of life, as this is a hobby they can quite easily apply their individual experiences, and their purchases are not only non-disposable, they are very long life too which means “trends” often mean little...Many of us on here can spot a whopper from a winner, as that’s what a specialised forum of knowledge can do.

 

being closer to your customer is vital... there’s a definite correlation here between the more and less successful manufacturers of late.

 

 

I meant that it is hard to find an unpopular prototype, not that some poorly built or badly presented models are unpopular as models.  Even models which shouldn't sell well on the basis of how many were built and the wideness of the area in which they operated, such as Adams Radials (most of life on one small branch line except for works visits), or Beattie Well Tanks (same thing unless you produce them in original cabless condition) are popular and good sellers.  

 

There are as you point out unpopular models that have bad reputations for various reasons, such as anything from Mainline even in it's Dapol Replica or Bachmann iteration, or 'design smart' Hornby's.  The reputation sometimes extends to models produced later where some or all of the issues have been addressed, such as Hornby 42xx/5202/72xx.  Both Hornby and DJM Hatton's have put out 14xx over the last few years which have gained bad reputations which will be hard to shake off, and the same might be said for Oxford's Dean Goods.  Model railway customers, whether modellers or collectors, are pretty knowledgeable, but I have lost track of how many versions of FS Triang Hornby and Hornby have produced over the years, and there are almost as many Princess Elizabeths.  This is where catalogue numbers come in handy but not all 'Bay sellers provide them.

[wombatofludham]

2 hours ago, adb968008 said:

I actually don’t think that is hard, indeed I find it quite easy, though my opinion often has offended those who thought differently.

 

but science is about precedent, look at other models in the market, look at competitors historical offerings and more importantly look at historical adverts for bargains.

 

Ive commented for a few years, that when I was involved in a shop in the early 90’s the worst performing models are plain black freight locos before 1948... going all the way back to Bachmanns V2 LNER number 3650 ...

roll on 30 years... look at Hattons, Rails & Kernow to find a take your pick of bargain plain black 1940’s locos.

 

But other metrics are useful.. when retooling a model, check the volume and price of the current incumbent model second hand.. as that will be your prime competitor.. if there’s thousands at less than half your planned rrp... then to me that’s a risk, as after announcement there’s going to be even more at even lower prices... and if there’s is not a flood.. that’s also a warning... as it means no ones clearing out to make space for yours.

 

finally.. don’t dismiss your customers as knowing nothing about what they want. They aren’t supermarket shoppers, many are highly educated from many different walks of life, as this is a hobby they can quite easily apply their individual experiences, and their purchases are not only non-disposable, they are very long life too which means “trends” often mean little...Many of us on here can spot a whopper from a winner, as that’s what a specialised forum of knowledge can do.

 

being closer to your customer is vital... there’s a definite correlation here between the more and less successful manufacturers of late.

 

 

 

Interesting observations and I'd noticed the much frothed about little black 0-6-0s were clogging up the bargain buckets at the main box shifters whilst the by popular acclaim "sales lemon" electrics never seem to be remaindered...

However, I'm not completely convinced the Bay of Thief should necessarily be used to predict likely sales of a new improved model as I'm not convinced the markets are the same, in fact I have noticed that on occasions when a new model is announced prices on older stuff can "harden" rather than "soften", almost as if modellers hear about a new model, and have their interest stirred even though they probably wouldn't have thought about buying the new version, so go after the old stuff to detail up.  An example is the Dolgellau group's resident young modeller.  He's very much into his DMUs but being school age can't afford the likes of the Realtrack 156 or the new Bachmann 158.  I can, so when I bought the Realtrack 156 I asked him if he fancied any of my old Limby fleet, which he did, and which I let him have for a bargain price.  He's happy he's been able to expand his fleet within his budget, I'm happy to help a younger modeller and the models aren't just sitting in the loft, and Charlie's happy he flogged me a 156, but more importantly, hasn't lost a sale to Iwan because he wouldn't have been able to afford one.  So, a win-win-win really.  I suspect the majority of sales on the Bay of Thief are in this type of scenario, rather than a potential risk to a new model. 

[adb968008]

 

1 hour ago, wombatofludham said:

 

An example is the Dolgellau group's resident young modeller.  He's very much into his DMUs but being school age can't afford the likes of the Realtrack 156 or the new Bachmann 158.  I can, so when I bought the Realtrack 156 I asked him if he fancied any of my old Limby fleet, which he did, and which I let him have for a bargain price.  

But your demonstrating applied knowledge of the forum... your more educated than joe on the street who see’s a  S/h Lima one for £40 and a Realtrack one for £230 and might struggle to see nuances to justify that differential.

 

Those same people are filling their boots with Bachmann 66’s (who know what to look for in a detailing bargain) vs those who dont care and want a “Bargain” Hornby one at the same price...chances are they aren't going to buy a Hattons one at £150. So one assumes when the sums were done on the Hattons one, the sales expectations took these considerations into account and arent dependant on them.

 

The realtrack one would seem to have it in account, imho.. they are really very limited in volumes produced in each version... most likely theres greater than 50,000 Lima 156’s out there.. but Realtrack lists 150 of each Version.

Going back to the little black pre-nat freight locos... there is some demand, its not 0... but its not as many as demand is for other types/liveries..Decisions like that require not just business knowledge but expert industry knowledge to avoid bargain basements or lottery winning models.

 

Of course there is a cheat.. just announce it and make it to pre-orders only, once the MOQ is achieved and a deadline is met... no orders.. its unpopular.

 

I do think some manufacturers have been maybe wagged by the dog when it comes to producing certain liveries on some models, or sought greater margin and reduced cost by choosing a basic all black liveries, which is resulted in customers shrugging their shoulders and walking on past... a a case in point

I have on occasion bought said Unpopular locos, nicely renumbered them as a BR number, popular logo and passed them on again happily... but its selective models and usually right down to specific running numbers that may even relate to a single famous photograph... Adding a £1.50 Replica headlight, LED to a plain blue 47 pays nice dividends, as just one example.

Years ago I was stuck with 50 odd 7823 Hook Norton Manors new in a shop heavily discounted.. I added Shawplan nameplates of 7828 Odney Manor, which happened to be local at the time, they flew out in 2 weeks at £10 over rrp, though I advised the owner not to try it twice. Even today Manors I think is a risk, despite the protestations I will get for saying that... its easy to say I want 10... but when an rrp 3.5-4x the current second hand price is revealed the crowd goes silent... @£120 i’m sure it will sell at @£199 I have doubts.

 

The forum and others are filled with “hot” requests, and completely absent of others, its up to manufacturers to ignore, engage, execute or dismiss them... 

Edited December 17, 2019 by adb968008

[rovex]

Another vote here for a straight framed Saint. If only to prove that not all GWR locos look the same 

[gc4946]

Next year's also the 60th anniversary of BR's last new steam loco built so Hornby will release a special commemorative edition of Evening Star.

 

It's also the 60th anniversary of the reopening of the Bluebell Railway so there might be a few specials including new versions of the blue Maunsell BCK and rebuilt ex-LSWR lav 3rd 320 ... and possibly a new loco too!

Edited December 18, 2019 by gc4946

[Dunsignalling]

10 hours ago, adb968008 said:

I actually don’t think that is hard, indeed I find it quite easy, though my opinion often has offended those who thought differently.

 

but science is about precedent, look at other models in the market, look at competitors historical offerings and more importantly look at historical adverts for bargains.

 

Ive commented for a few years, that when I was involved in a shop in the early 90’s the worst performing models are plain black freight locos before 1948... going all the way back to Bachmanns V2 LNER number 3650 ...

roll on 30 years... look at Hattons, Rails & Kernow to find a take your pick of bargain plain black 1940’s locos.

 

But other metrics are useful.. when retooling a model, check the volume and price of the current incumbent model second hand.. as that will be your prime competitor.. if there’s thousands at less than half your planned rrp... then to me that’s a risk, as after announcement there’s going to be even more at even lower prices... and if there’s is not a flood.. that’s also a warning... as it means no ones clearing out to make space for yours.

 

finally.. don’t dismiss your customers as knowing nothing about what they want. They aren’t supermarket shoppers, many are highly educated from many different walks of life, as this is a hobby they can quite easily apply their individual experiences, and their purchases are not only non-disposable, they are very long life too which means “trends” often mean little...Many of us on here can spot a whopper from a winner, as that’s what a specialised forum of knowledge can do.

 

being closer to your customer is vital... there’s a definite correlation here between the more and less successful manufacturers of late.

 

 

It's difficult to think of a model of a prototype that has been widely reviled but we all have our loves and hates, and I happen to think that The Johnster's beloved Hornby open-cab pannier is a toy that's thirty years past its sell-by date, whereas I consider their Adams Radials to be minor masterpieces.

 

I don't think unpopular liveries on models that sell well in others are really what he was getting at, and a regularly observed example of such relative unpopularity is Hornby air-smoothed West Countries in malachite, be it with SR or BR markings.

 

At a recent swap-meet I attended, one stand had no fewer that seven different ones when I arrived, and they were all still there three hours later when I was heading for the exit. By comparison, he'd begun with three in BR Brunswick and all had gone.

 

There are big regional variations in "unpopularity", too. My local model shop proprietor struggles to shift more than one or two of anything LNER/ER*. He was still stuck with a couple of the first Bachmann K3s almost three years after release and he'd only had four to start with! 

 

John

 

*Flying Scotsman, Mallard and Tornado for the kids excepted.

[adb968008]

2 hours ago, Dunsignalling said:

It's difficult to think of a model of a prototype that has been widely reviled..

Dapol 150/2 ?

playcraft class 21 ?

 

The Dapol class 150/2 is the only model I can think of, where someone made a kit to convert it into the prototype its actually supposed to represent. (as opposed to a detailing kit).

 

The model was shipped with a separate user fitted lump weight, as it had no internal weight, however the user could not readily fit the weight, as the body and chassis were factory glued together.

 

2 hours ago, Dunsignalling said:

 

There are big regional variations in "unpopularity", too. My local model shop proprietor struggles to shift more than one or two of anything LNER/ER*. He was still stuck with a couple of the first Bachmann K3s almost three years after release and he'd only had four to start with! 

How would it have been if the K4 was modelled instead ?

 

Someone always loves something, the question isn't if its reviled.. if it is its because its been tooled badly or painted badly, its assessing the number of people who love it, and at what price they love to own it.

The common mistake is thinking too many want to own it, or after seeing the initial surge being greater than expected, being caught by the whirlwind into doing a second run believing the product is disposable or massively popular, when really its just everyone buying their loved “one” at once.

 

Often demand is specific to real world events (those new 66 liveries etc) and when the event has passed, demand too fades, or a new tooling no one has seen before, generates demand (unicorns blood and half lives comes to mind).
 

Retooling to me is a dangerous game, the more detailed the last tooling, the greater the risk, especially if the new tooling is 2x the price of the RRP of last tooling was around 5-10 years earlier.. 

 

This is why the Peckett was such aground breaking innovation, however wasn’t realised or capitalised in the speed it should leaving it under cooked, it was surprising only 1 other recognised it but maybe over cooked it, leaving the 3rd model probably in the right place. I suspect the market might find place for a 4th/[5th at most ], but really depends on the very specific right prototype. ( there is one which I think has very exploitative potential in many numbers, variant & colours still ), but then it starts getting a bit niche... though industrials is a feeding ground for 3D printing especially as overcoming the paint job is now possible.

 

 

Edited December 18, 2019 by adb968008