Hornby 2020 range "reveal date" = 6th Jan

[Legend]

It really must be tricky for manufacturers to know what to produce

 

I think its correct that the 0-6-0 tender loco in black is perhaps reaching saturation levels .  Now if you are waiting for a Caley 2F Jumbo you'll probably say he is talking nonsense , but the reality is to be a sales success the model has to appeal to those that really need/want one (eg Scottish Region transition modellers) and those that will make an impulse buy because its interesting , and appeal to the general market .  An example of that would probably be Bachmanns SE&CR C class which in its pretty green livery sold well beyond those modelling SE&CR, Black 0-6-0s just don't have the same charm.

 

I think there's also been a bit of Wish list reliance where companies have followed the wants which appear to come from the market in these lists . But I think many people vote for things just to plug the gap . An example of that I would say is Bachmann with the Stanier 2-6-0 . It was an obvious gap in the market, people said they wanted one , but how popular was it in reality ? There still seem to be a good few around years after its launch . Suspect the K3 is similar.  In fact because Bachmann have until now gone for the more mundane models you may say that they will suffer more .    If you look at models that are still wanted I'd say the Standard 3 2-6-0 is probably in that class. It plugs a gap , but how many would actually buy such a numerically small class, geographically limited (Scottish and NE regions only I think)?

 

You can see a reaction against this in Hornby who have tended to revert to large Express passenger types . In the last few years we have seen Duchess, Lord Nelson, Princess . Maybe the feeling is that they are more exciting , more stunning liveries that will sell more . I don't need an LMS Princess Elizabeth but the pics have me interested and I might just get one . As said little black 0-6-0s don't have that cachet.   True Hornby maybe have got their foot in both camps still producing the likes of J36s and Drummond 700s . I think one they really missed out on was the Caley 812 in gorgeous Caley Blue . That had the potential to be another C Class , but the model is now being produced by Rails/Bachmann (at probably a much higher price, so limiting the market, if the J36 can be taken as a comparison) .   Hornby have also been succesful in creating markets .  These lovely Pecketts (particularly the Huntley and Palmers blue one) I'm sure sold to many just because they looked cute.    In the past in Triang days Richard Lines was very succesful at that bringing out Lord of the Isles and Caley 123. There may not be an obvious market for them but they are capable of creating their own market or following .  More recently of course they also stimulated the market for nicely decorated but cheap(er) 66s .  Difficult to see whats left in that category though

 

It will be interesting on 6th Jan , that's for sure.

 

 

Edited December 18, 2019 by Legend

[Dunsignalling]

54 minutes ago, Legend said:

It really must be tricky for manufacturers to know what to produce

 

I think its correct that the 0-6-0 tender loco in black is perhaps reaching saturation levels .  Now if you are waiting for a Caley 2F Jumbo you'll probably say he is talking nonsense , but the reality is to be a sales success the model has to appeal to those that really need/want one (eg Scottish Region transition modellers) and those that will make an impulse buy because its interesting , and appeal to the general market .  An example of that would probably be Bachmanns SE&CR C class which in its pretty green livery sold well beyond those modelling SE&CR, Black 0-6-0s just don't have the same charm.

 

I think there's also been a bit of Wish list reliance where companies have followed the wants which appear to come from the market in these lists . But I think many people vote for things just to plug the gap . An example of that I would say is Bachmann with the Stanier 2-6-0 . It was an obvious gap in the market, people said they wanted one , but how popular was it in reality ? There still seem to be a good few around years after its launch . Suspect the K3 is similar.  In fact because Bachmann have until now gone for the more mundane models you may say that they will suffer more .    If you look at models that are still wanted I'd say the Standard 3 2-6-0 is probably in that class. It plugs a gap , but how many would actually buy such a numerically small class, geographically limited?

 

I think you can see a reaction against this in Hornby who have tended to revert to large Express passenger types . In the last few years we have seen Duchess, Lord Nelson, Princess . Maybe the feeling is that they are more exciting , more stunning liveries that will sell more . I don't need an LMS Princess Elizabeth but the pics have me interested and I might just get one . As said little black 0-6-0s don't have that cachet.   True Hornby maybe have got their foot in both camps still producing the likes of J36s and Drummond 700s . I think one they really missed out on was the Caley 812 in gorgeous Caley Blue . That had the potential to be another C Class , but the model is now being produced by Rails/Bachmann (at probably a much higher price if the J36 can be taken as a comparison) .   Hornby have also been succesful in creating markets .  These lovely Pecketts (particularly the Huntley and Palmers blue one) I'm sure sold to many just because they looked cute.    In the past in Triang days Richard Lines was very succesful at that bringing out Lord of the Isles and Caley 123. There may not be an obvious market for them but they are capable of creating their own market or following .  More recently of course they also stimulated the market for nicely decorated but cheap(er) 66s .  Difficult to see whats left in that category though

 

It will be interesting on 6th Jan , that's for sure.

 

 

There's a need to differentiate between the Rule One mob/Collectors who are predisposed to novelty and/or a "bit of flash" and modellers following a prototypical theme who will often require multiples of the "boring" versions in order to operate their layouts more convincingly. My Somerset & Dorset proclivities require a number of 0-6-0s but obviously no Princess Royal. That would, in any case, look daft on the layout though the odd West Country pacific is OK.

 

My guess is that whatever money Bachmann made off their "Bluebell" C would have been a bonus. Making it in isolation would not have justified the tooling costs, and it would have been the demand for SR and BR versions that made the numbers stack up.

 

I also think that Hornby distorted our perception of the demand for black freight locos by rushing out second (and sometimes third) batches of some before the market had absorbed the first. That led to widespread deep discounting of J15s, 700s, S15s and GWR 8-coupled tanks (and probably others). None of those were unpopular, but supply significantly exceeded demand at the time and some of that "overhang" stock still awaits purchasers.

 

Pre-owned prices realised for Bachmann's full-livery SECR 'C' clearly indicate that they underestimated its popularity, but we can't tell by how much. Could they have sold another thousand, another five hundred, or would the demand have been sated by just another hundred?

 

The trick of successful product selection lies in pandering to both sets of taste and, even more so, on coming close to correctly anticipating  demand for the items chosen.

 

John  

 

 

Edited December 18, 2019 by Dunsignalling

[PJT]

1 hour ago, Legend said:

If you look at models that are still wanted I'd say the Standard 3 2-6-0 is probably in that class. It plugs a gap , but how many would actually buy such a numerically small class, geographically limited (Scottish and NE regions only I think)?

 

Almost right, except 77014 which came down south towards the end of Southern Region steam and made itself into a very popular celebrity working out of Guildford Shed (one of those workings being the last official steam working on the SR).  I feel certain a model of 77014 would sell like hot cakes - probably more than making up for the geographically limited desirability of the other members of the class.  However, once that trump card has been played it couldn't be played again, could it, unless something like a weathered version followed a year or two later.

 

Pete T.

 

[phil-b259]

50 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

 

Pre-owned prices realised for Bachmann's full-livery SECR 'C' clearly indicate that they underestimated its popularity, but we can't tell by how much. Could they have sold another thousand, another five hundred, or would the demand have been sated by just another hundred?

 

 

Its not just the 'Bluebell effect - Bachmanns latest SECR liveried version has hit the shops and Rails are reporting most of their allocation have sold out on pre-order!

 

Pretty stuff sells - regardless of whether it suits the inaccurate for my layout / era brigade

[Dunsignalling]

22 minutes ago, phil-b259 said:

 

Its not just the 'Bluebell effect - Bachmanns latest SECR liveried version has hit the shops and Rails are reporting most of their allocation have sold out on pre-order!

 

Pretty stuff sells - regardless of whether it suits the inaccurate for my layout / era brigade

Not fussed, if someone gave me one, I'd flog it.

 

John

[MikeHunter]

On 16/12/2019 at 16:10, adb968008 said:

Yes to all, plus Stanier and Fowler 2-6-2ts and Tilbury tanks.

 

of all this lot, I think only the Stanier buffet has chance.

 

Agree the Stanier Buffet looks the most likely, though I also think the push-pull has a chance. I would like both 2-6-2s and a Tilbury as well. The Tilburys were used in and around Nottingham in the late 30s having been displaced by the Stanier 2-6-4s so have wider route possibilities than just the LTSR. 

[Dunsignalling]

29 minutes ago, PJT said:

 

Almost right, except 77014 which came down south towards the end of Southern Region steam and made itself into a very popular celebrity working out of Guildford Shed (one of those workings being the last official steam working on the SR).  I feel certain a model of 77014 would sell like hot cakes - probably more than making up for the geographically limited desirability of the other members of the class.  However, once that trump card has been played it couldn't be played again, could it, unless something like a weathered version followed a year or two later.

 

Pete T.

 

As I understand it, two of them came south on a railtour and 77014 failed so didn't work back with the train. Its companion was withdrawn pretty much immediately after it got "home" so, having gone to the trouble of fixing 77014, the Southern Region hung on to it.

 

Guildford seems to have been the "shed of last resort" for all manner of waifs, strays and sole survivors of classes over the years.

 

John

[Dunsignalling]

2 minutes ago, MikeHunter said:

 

Agree the Stanier Buffet looks the most likely, though I also think the push-pull has a chance. I would like both 2-6-2s and a Tilbury as well. The Tilburys were used in and around Nottingham in the late 30s having been displaced by the Stanier 2-6-4s so have wider route possibilities than just the LTSR. 

I reckon that, if Hornby do announce the push-pull set, there'll be a 2-6-2T to go with it.

 

Otherwise they will just be stimulating demand for locos from their main competitor.

 

John

[phil-b259]

12 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

Not fussed, if someone gave me one, I'd flog it.

 

John

 

Nobody is asking you to buy one - but if Rails are correct then there are many, many others who don't take your view.

 

RTR manufacturers PRIMARY duty is to make money for shareholders - not indulge the whims of modellers unless they think doing so will contribute to their primary duty.

 

The fact that that there is a glut of boring / mundane / dull / black liveried locos sitting on retailers shelves yet 'pretty' ones like the SECR C class are quickly selling out speaks volumes about what appears to generate best returns for shareholders - whether you personally like it or not.

[adb968008]

1 hour ago, Dunsignalling said:

As I understand it, two of them came south on a railtour and 77014 failed so didn't work back with the train. Its companion was withdrawn pretty much immediately after it got "home" so, having gone to the trouble of fixing 77014, the Southern Region hung on to it.

 

Guildford seems to have been the "shed of last resort" for all manner of waifs, strays and sole survivors of classes over the years.

 

John

i think Bachmann is best placed for the 77xxx... the 76xxx is 90% of it... and the boiler/firebox/smokebox unit is removable iirc... if only the removable section of the Bachmann 82xxx included a full sided firebox.. it could have been a straight swap, and the wheels..... i’m sure some have done this already.

Edited December 18, 2019 by adb968008

[Dunsignalling]

1 hour ago, phil-b259 said:

 

Nobody is asking you to buy one - but if Rails are correct then there are many, many others who don't take your view.

 

RTR manufacturers PRIMARY duty is to make money for shareholders - not indulge the whims of modellers unless they think doing so will contribute to their primary duty.

 

The fact that that there is a glut of boring / mundane / dull / black liveried locos sitting on retailers shelves yet 'pretty' ones like the SECR C class are quickly selling out speaks volumes about what appears to generate best returns for shareholders - whether you personally like it or not.

Agreed, but without the sales volume generated by all the other versions to spread the tooling costs, few (if any) of the pretty ones would see the light of day.

 

One of the biggest factors in a maker choosing a pre-group prototype is survival long enough in BR ownership to be renumbered and repainted, usually into boring black livery. Those that  didn't have only a very slim chance of making it into r-t-r model form.,  

 

What remains on shelves has more to do with overproduction or doing re-runs prematurely than any inherent unpopularity of workaday locos. I'd wager that Bachmann sold four or five SR/BR C class models from the early runs for every one of the fancy version.  

 

John

Edited December 18, 2019 by Dunsignalling

[Dunsignalling]

3 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

i think Bachmann is best placed for the 77xxx... the 76xxx is 90% of it... and the boiler/firebox/smokebox unit is removable iirc... if only the removable section of the Bachmann 82xxx included a full sided firebox.. it could have been a straight swap... i’m sure some have done this already.

It's a while since I've had the top off a Bachmann 76xxx, but IIRC the chassis block is a tight fit in the boiler so a 77xxx would require a skinnier main casting.

 

A conversion job from an existing model would therefore need to start with a 82xxx, always supposing the chassis doesn't extend into the tanks. 

 

John

[phil-b259]

2 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

Agreed, but without the sales volume generated by all the other versions to spread the tooling costs, few of the pretty ones would see the light of day.

 

One of the biggest factors in a maker choosing a pre-group prototype is survival long enough in BR ownership to be renumbered and repainted, usually into boring black livery. Those that  didn't have only a very slim chance of making it into r-t-r model form.,  

 

What remains on shelves has more to do with overproduction or doing re-runs prematurely than any inherent unpopularity of workaday locos. I'd wager that Bachmann sold four or five SR/BR C class models from the early runs for every one of the fancy version.  

 

John

 

From what I understand exactly the same number of C class models were produced in the initial run - yet the only one to sell out  on pre-order was the SECR one. The others did take longer to shift and I believe it was the BR black one which took the longest.

 

Since then there have been re-runs in BR + Bulleid Black and both have been heavily discounted. Yes the complex SECR livery is more expensive to apply - but from a sales perspective it is probably more profitable overall than yet more 'easy + cheap' black livery options.

 

Yes I take your point that a loco / coach / wagon that survived into BR days does improve the potential returns from any particular model by catering for as many markets as possible - but as any marketing specialist knows, the size of each market segment is not uniform, nor does it stay the same.

 

Thus while perceived wisdom at present is that the biggest segment (as regards steam) is those modelling the 1950s / 1960s, the way certain 'pretty' locos quickly sell out indicates this thinking may not be as true as it once was.

[truffy]

3 minutes ago, phil-b259 said:

Thus while perceived wisdom at present is that the biggest segment (as regards steam) is those modelling the 1950s / 1960s, the way certain 'pretty' locos quickly sell out indicates this thinking may not be as true as it once was.

 

Or that people are more likely to apply rule 1 for something that's out of scope but pretty?

[The Johnster]

15 hours ago, wombatofludham said:

 

Interesting observations and I'd noticed the much frothed about little black 0-6-0s were clogging up the bargain buckets at the main box shifters whilst the by popular acclaim "sales lemon" electrics never seem to be remaindered...

However, I'm not completely convinced the Bay of Thief should necessarily be used to predict likely sales of a new improved model as I'm not convinced the markets are the same, in fact I have noticed that on occasions when a new model is announced prices on older stuff can "harden" rather than "soften", almost as if modellers hear about a new model, and have their interest stirred even though they probably wouldn't have thought about buying the new version, so go after the old stuff to detail up.  An example is the Dolgellau group's resident young modeller.  He's very much into his DMUs but being school age can't afford the likes of the Realtrack 156 or the new Bachmann 158.  I can, so when I bought the Realtrack 156 I asked him if he fancied any of my old Limby fleet, which he did, and which I let him have for a bargain price.  He's happy he's been able to expand his fleet within his budget, I'm happy to help a younger modeller and the models aren't just sitting in the loft, and Charlie's happy he flogged me a 156, but more importantly, hasn't lost a sale to Iwan because he wouldn't have been able to afford one.  So, a win-win-win really.  I suspect the majority of sales on the Bay of Thief are in this type of scenario, rather than a potential risk to a new model. 

Sounds about right, Mark.  'Bay is a very dynamic working of the laws of supply and demand, and not always sensible (sensible of course being cheap when I'm buying and expensive when I'm selling...).  But I think there's something else going on as well in a related way; announcements of new models that are deferred from their original ETA (I'm looking at you, blue box) can mean that demand for older versions is boosted as customers who want a 94xx (you knew I was going to bring this up, other models are unavailable in the same sense) for example buy Lima locos and Bachmann pannier chassis to make temporary 94xx until the new bluebox arrives.  I did this, having been kindly donated the Lima body and sourcing the chassis as a donor loco on 'Bay.  When the bluebox turns up, I'll scrap the Limbach and return the chassis to it's original 57xx body.

 

I am not a big fan of 'Bay but have had some decent stuff off it at reasonable prices, so I keep an eye when I'm bored on the bus.  I've noticed that there seems to be a price inflation over the last few weeks, presumably for people looking for cheap xmas pressies.  The sheer number of Smokey Joes, and the price range, always makes me smile, especially brand new 'Buy It Now' ones more expensive than Hornby's RRP!

[PJT]

11 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

It's a while since I've had the top off a Bachmann 76xxx, but IIRC the chassis block is a tight fit in the boiler so a 77xxx would require a skinnier main casting.

 

A conversion job from an existing model would therefore need to start with a 82xxx, always supposing the chassis doesn't extend into the tanks. 

 

The cab's different between a 76000 and a 77000 too.  I agree the running gear of the Bachmann 76000 or 82000 looks close enough to use (though I also agree about the lack of space inside the 77000 boiler/firebox for the 76000 chassis casting and motor) and the BR2 tender of the 76000 would be fine, but above the chassis, the more you look the more differences there are. 

 

1 hour ago, Dunsignalling said:

As I understand it, two of them came south on a railtour and 77014 failed so didn't work back with the train. Its companion was withdrawn pretty much immediately after it got "home" so, having gone to the trouble of fixing 77014, the Southern Region hung on to it.

 

I don't know if two came down south.  If they did, the other would most likely have been 77011 which, like 77014, spent from 1964 to 1966 shedded at Northwich on the CLC - another little stray away from the traditional haunts of the class in the North East and Scotland.  At least the Northwich pair widen the geographical possibilities of a 77000 model a little bit more, don't they?

 

Or am I clutching at straws here?  Of course, there's a perfectly acceptable DJH kit for a 77000 (though I never thought DJH nailed the BR2 tender shape).

 

Getting us back back on 'Hornby wishlist' topic, in my opinion, Hornby made a lovely job of the 75000 4MT (gear meshing problems on the early ones aside) and I reckon they'd do the same for the 77000 too, despite Bachmann being initially the more obvious candidate for making one.

 

Pete T.

 

[The Johnster]

7 hours ago, Dunsignalling said:

I happen to think that The Johnster's beloved Hornby open-cab pannier is a toy that's thirty years past its sell-by date

I'm not denying it's got issues (issues, issues, all fall down), as. will it's potential running mate a donated Wills 1854 that needs a lot of TLC and a new chassis.  It was a toy when it was introduced, and is very outdated nowadays.  But mine's been worked up and is not as bad as it once was; new chimney, safety valve cover, buffers, cab window glazing, real coal, repaint, weathering, real wood cab floor, crew, and a lot of work on the running, and I find her 'acceptable'; I'm under no delusions about her fidelity to prototype  She's a better toy than the even more appalling Triang Hornby 8750; no way is one of those ever going to pollute Cwmdimbath!

 

The boiler skirts are something I have to live with but the repaint and weathering has hidden them to some extent and they are not as hideously apparent as they were in shiny Triang Hornby bright green.  And she'll always sit on her incorrect chassis, but at least the wheels line up with the splashers which a replacement Baccy 57xx chassis', the usual suggested workup for this loco, wouldn't, as well as having the wrong coupling rods for my prototype, 2761.  She has a sort of Edwardian charm about her that is endearing; 'beloved' is a bit strong but I've put a lot into her and I'm fond of her.  

 

I imagine her eking out her days in the yard at Tondu on pilot duty 'at disposal of Control', and occasionally being let out for a run up the Valley substituting for a failure or an ad hoc goods clearance, to the delight of her crew, who are probably a recently passed fireman and a cleaner, despite her 'bag of nails' riding and the knocks and bangs.  

 

Not so fond that she wouldn't be given an exciting new career in the landfill industry in a nanosecond if a decent RTR was available, mind...

[The Johnster]

5 hours ago, adb968008 said:

Dapol 150/2 ?

playcraft class 21 ?

 

The Dapol class 150/2 is the only model I can think of, where someone made a kit to convert it into the prototype its actually supposed to represent. (as opposed to a detailing kit).

 

The model was shipped with a separate user fitted lump weight, as it had no internal weight, however the user could not readily fit the weight, as the body and chassis were factory glued together.

 

How would it have been if the K4 was modelled instead ?

 

Someone always loves something, the question isn't if its reviled.. if it is its because its been tooled badly or painted badly, its assessing the number of people who love it, and at what price they love to own it.

The common mistake is thinking too many want to own it, or after seeing the initial surge being greater than expected, being caught by the whirlwind into doing a second run believing the product is disposable or massively popular, when really its just everyone buying their loved “one” at once.

 

Often demand is specific to real world events (those new 66 liveries etc) and when the event has passed, demand too fades, or a new tooling no one has seen before, generates demand (unicorns blood and half lives comes to mind).
 

Retooling to me is a dangerous game, the more detailed the last tooling, the greater the risk, especially if the new tooling is 2x the price of the RRP of last tooling was around 5-10 years earlier.. 

 

This is why the Peckett was such aground breaking innovation, however wasn’t realised or capitalised in the speed it should leaving it under cooked, it was surprising only 1 other recognised it but maybe over cooked it, leaving the 3rd model probably in the right place. I suspect the market might find place for a 4th/[5th at most ], but really depends on the very specific right prototype. ( there is one which I think has very exploitative potential in many numbers, variant & colours still ), but then it starts getting a bit niche... though industrials is a feeding ground for 3D printing especially as overcoming the paint job is now possible.

 

 

Retooling is not only risky (all investment is to some extent of course) but is often IMHO not necessary.  There are a good few models in current RTR catalogues that are very good indeed, and 'to modern standards', but have been around for a while, resulting in market demand for a retooling.  Marketing departments I suspect are aware of this and promote the idea to the management, but unless a) there is a significant problem with the model that can be addressed by a new tooling and is holding sales back, or b) a new tooling can make production more cost effective and efficient without detracting from the quality of the model, there is no point in taking the investment risk.  But there seems to be an opinion around amongst modellers that 'new tooling must unquestionably mean a better model'.  Not if it doubles the price for a small improvement in detail that could be done by the modeller anyway!

 

Maybe we could start a list of models that really need new toolings; I'd start it off with the Hornby 2721 and ex-Airfix auto trailer.

Edited December 18, 2019 by The Johnster

[Dunsignalling]

1 hour ago, phil-b259 said:

 

From what I understand exactly the same number of C class models were produced in the initial run - yet the only one to sell out  on pre-order was the SECR one. The others did take longer to shift and I believe it was the BR black one which took the longest.

 

Since then there have been re-runs in BR + Bulleid Black and both have been heavily discounted. Yes the complex SECR livery is more expensive to apply - but from a sales perspective it is probably more profitable overall than yet more 'easy + cheap' black livery options.

 

Yes I take your point that a loco / coach / wagon that survived into BR days does improve the potential returns from any particular model by catering for as many markets as possible - but as any marketing specialist knows, the size of each market segment is not uniform, nor does it stay the same.

 

Thus while perceived wisdom at present is that the biggest segment (as regards steam) is those modelling the 1950s / 1960s, the way certain 'pretty' locos quickly sell out indicates this thinking may not be as true as it once was.

 

 

There is clearly a random cohort of purchasers who aren't bothered what the model is so long as it's done up to the nines. Plus, in the case of the C, those who actually model the SECR in the appropriate era, and the Bluebell fans. Probably, from the manufacturers' standpoint, all segments that will be even harder to quantify than the potential buyers who are interested in the SR and BR(s) at various times.

 

Trouble is, there is inconsistency even with models sold in pre-group/preserved liveries. Bachmann seem to have encountered peculiarities with their E4 tanks. The SR Olive green version sold out rapidly. Was the preserved one in that livery at the time? Whatever the reason, some versions in both LBSC and BR form lingered long enough to be heavily discounted.

 

 At the time Bachmann released the "Bluebell" C, I was thinking of building up a small collection of "preserved" models, but I missed out and shelved the plan. I've since gone off the idea altogether, so the re-run will pass me by as well. 

 

John

 

 

Edited December 18, 2019 by Dunsignalling

[MikeHunter]

3 hours ago, Dunsignalling said:

I reckon that, if Hornby do announce the push-pull set, there'll be a 2-6-2T to go with it.

 

Otherwise they will just be stimulating demand for locos from their main competitor.

 

John

 

True, unless they do an upgrade to their own Jinty (unlikely). Although it could run with the Fowler 2-6-4.

[Steamport Southport]

I really hope not.

 

Both LMS 2-6-2Ts are due from Judith Edge.....

 

 

 

Jason

[Dunsignalling]

16 hours ago, adb968008 said:

 

 

 

 

Years ago I was stuck with 50 odd 7823 Hook Norton Manors new in a shop heavily discounted.. I added Shawplan nameplates of 7828 Odney Manor, which happened to be local at the time, they flew out in 2 weeks at £10 over rrp, though I advised the owner not to try it twice. Even today Manors I think is a risk, despite the protestations I will get for saying that... its easy to say I want 10... but when an rrp 3.5-4x the current second hand price is revealed the crowd goes silent... @£120 i’m sure it will sell at @£199 I have doubts.

 

The forum and others are filled with “hot” requests, and completely absent of others, its up to manufacturers to ignore, engage, execute or dismiss them... 

 

Bachmann's split-chassis mechanics do mean the old Manors are on borrowed time, though. As time passes, more of them will fall over, and demands for a new one will increase. I suspect that Bachmann have been waiting for enough of their old models to expire before acting, but they left the Mogul too long and they could easily be revealed on January 6th to have done the same with the Manor. 

 

There is another factor coming into play, and that is the forthcoming Dapol Mogul. When there's the opportunity to directly compare that alongside an old Bachmann one, I'd reckon the objections to the potential cost of a new Manor will start to fade. 

 

John

[adb968008]

A Manor is a mexican stand off though...

 

Dapol has a potential chassis, tender.

Hornby has a potential chassis and tender.

Bachmann could churn out old manors.
 

so all three could relatively cheaply turn out a Manor..

And if they all did, everyone would probably lose.

So who dares wins ?

 

i’ll lay my cards though... I reckon Dapol has both the best chance, newest tooling and better result on paint jobs... their new Mogul is very nice, above and below the chassis and a very nice connection mechanism too, but these companies dont play nicely with each other, especially in a crowded market with limited viable new toolings.

 

but as I said earlier, Manors arent in the news headlines today.. back when Bachmann first tooled up a new chassis under the Mainline model, real world manors were emerging from Barry wrecks almost every month ! 7822/7828 emerged within a few weeks of each other and toured the countries galas, two of them were on the mainline in short succession (7819 followed by 7802) and it wasnt long since GW150, plus steam on the cambrian....today they are relatively quiet less travelled, headline shy workhorses concentrated on a few lines whilst the rest are static display.

So those who own old & broken and model GWR might want them, but a not insignificant section of the “must have what Ive seen” or “influenced by news media” market might be missing... then its “how much ?” A manor might be nice, but the demand wont be the same as it was in the 1990’s.

 

A Saint might do better.. especially if the real one went on tour, its a gap in all GW modellers collections.

Edited December 18, 2019 by adb968008

[Legend]

In terms of flexibility and bringing it to market, my money would be on Hornby . If announced on 6th Jan they’ve probably been working on it for at least a year with the intent to bring in q4 2020 or q1 2021 .  Bachmann and Dapol are much less agile 

[wombatofludham]

Speaking with my Dolgellau hat on, the one copper kettle I would welcome is a Manor.  I bought a second hand DCC chipped one of the Bay of Thief for not a lot of money, our resident weathering guru gave it a right filthing, and it looks the business, but the wheels do keep shifting on the axles causing the valve gear to lock, which I gather is a fairly common issue.  When it runs it's good, and it looks like a Manor to me (but let's face it, all copper kettles look the same to me who prefers his tea urns black or red) but it is beginning to show it's age in terms of reliability.

To be honest neither it nor the two s/h dcc chipped Bachmann Moguls I also sourced from that website owe us anything if they end up being replaced by better running more modern models but visually, they look the part and as long as they don't throw a rod or split a wheel, I'm happy with them.