Hornby Financial Update.

[The Stationmaster]

On 19/12/2019 at 17:52, Phil Parker said:

 

Yet again, someone naively believes all he sees on TV...

 

The media announcement in December ensures that all the channels are working to maximise coverage and make the most noise at a time of year when Hornby will pretty much have the stage to themselves. Do it at Warley and they share coverage with Accurascale, Heljan, KR Models and others.

 

 

Sorry Phil but that was not my point.  No way do I believe everything I see on tv and I definitely didn't believe most of that particular piece of nonsense.  However the point of what is shown is to make people believe, to create an impression, and what we saw was theatrical to say the very least and very clearly set up to create a particular impression and it was plainly obvious why it was done that way.   End of story - cosy (or maybe not so cosy?) theatricals, no more, no less and all done to create a particular effect on viewers.  Let us not forget that by its very meaning the word 'theatrical' which I used does not necessarily imply something which is believable - the theatre gives us fiction.

 

 

[Phil Parker]

16 hours ago, The Stationmaster said:

Sorry Phil but that was not my point.  No way do I believe everything I see on tv and I definitely didn't believe most of that particular piece of nonsense.  However the point of what is shown is to make people believe, to create an impression, and what we saw was theatrical to say the very least and very clearly set up to create a particular impression and it was plainly obvious why it was done that way.   End of story - cosy (or maybe not so cosy?) theatricals, no more, no less and all done to create a particular effect on viewers.  Let us not forget that by its very meaning the word 'theatrical' which I used does not necessarily imply something which is believable - the theatre gives us fiction.

 

 

 

So you are saying that what happens in real life isn't important, it's the stuff we see on telly that is the truth even when it's been made up by a TV production company(not Hornby) to make an interesting show?

[The Stationmaster]

23 hours ago, Phil Parker said:

 

So you are saying that what happens in real life isn't important, it's the stuff we see on telly that is the truth even when it's been made up by a TV production company(not Hornby) to make an interesting show?

No.

[adb968008]

On 21/12/2019 at 14:08, Phil Parker said:

 

So you are saying that what happens in real life isn't important, it's the stuff we see on telly that is the truth even when it's been made up by a TV production company(not Hornby) to make an interesting show?

Politicians certainly seem to make a career out of making us believe what they say on TV and not to believe what they do in real life... remind me where that Duck Island went to again ?

 

The national news media are also quite adept at propaganda for ratings. Creating stories by creating a focal point and channeling momentum at it.. whilst reporting it and cashing the cheques is nothing new... Then at critical mass, 180 degree the angle, tear it apart and start again.
 

Years ago I started reading journalism from different countries to get different perspectives on a story. Its equally entertaining to find commonalities in local stories portrayed as big events locally.. yet repeated in different geographies equally at the same time... it was almost as if media were centrally owned and managed cross national boundaries and carry their own agendas sometimes...
 

Real life yes, then doll it up commercial entertainment value.., but any Documentary, Film, News report  is going to be one-sided propaganda... 

 

 

 

Edited December 22, 2019 by adb968008

[ruggedpeak]

Another article in the Telegraph today:

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/12/31/traditional-toys-meet-digital-devices-Hornby-staying-relevant/

 

The main take for me from it is "A whole series of partnerships with other film and TV franchises are coming down the line", following a lucrative route that Lego have taken.

[eldomtom2]

They say that but they gave up the big train-related franchise to Bachmann...

 

Also I remain unconvinced that things like controlling cars using your phone is really something that's going to make Scalextric suddenly appealing to children.

[tractionman]

21 minutes ago, eldomtom2 said:

 

Also I remain unconvinced that things like controlling cars using your phone is really something that's going to make Scalextric suddenly appealing to children.

 

I imagine something more along the lines of this --

 

https://www.xbox.com/en-GB/xbox-one/consoles/xbox-one-s/forza-horizon-4-lego-1tb

 

-- my teenage son loves his Forza Horizon.

 

cheers,

 

Keith

 

 

 

[MartynJPearson]

On 29/11/2019 at 11:47, The Stationmaster said:

 

 

The lack of attention to detail shown by the typo here sums things up for me. Hornby don't seem to take care about what they are doing.

 

It's unfair to say that Hornby are the only manufacturer with quality issues, but I've never associated the brand with quality - and this stems from my first Christmas 30 something years ago as an 11 year old newly introduced to the hobby where three Christmas presents went back to the shop (a none working Class 25, a wagon with missing parts and a wagon with square wheels!) . Turning to my more recent purchases, my Bachmann stock runs flawlessly, whereas my Hornby stock has had more than it's fair share of issues (Class 153 poor running, despite being looked at by Hornby, HST back to Hornby due to wiring fault, class 31 lighting failure requiring replacement LED, class 56 poor contacts meaning intermittent lighting...)

 

Aside from those issues, looking at the boxes of a couple of locos, the class 56 box says it is a steam engine, and the class 31 box has "RA5" in the most prominent writing on the box. Now, it could be a revision of the loco that I'm not aware of, but the only thing I could find was Route Availability - hardly something you'd put on the box in big writing. These things make me think that this is being run by people who see the trains as a job and not an interest, which in turn makes the company feel out of touch with enthusiasts.

 

This is not meant to be a Hornby bash - despite all this I still have a great deal of affection for the brand - more thoughts on why things aren't as rosy for Hornby as they might be.

[woodenhead]

Lego have a long tradition of integration with IT - they had PC games back in the 1990s and of course Lego Technik to keep people using the brand as they grew up.

 

Then they took the leap into associations with films whilst they have created some original content their main foray has to link up with an established medium and Lego it - Harry Potter, Batman etc and with Forza they are doing the same sort of thing - take something popular and put a Lego spin on it.

 

Very successful and it means their market is very broad, adults love the Harry Potter stuff as much as children do.

 

They also don't take themselves seriously meaning their versions are always fun and now they actually do films involving Lego characters.

 

Can't every see Hornby being this successful when it comes to integrating with Films and games - TTTE and Harry Potter excepted - there was an obvious train link.

 

Fast and Furious Scalextrix anyone?

[Pteremy]

'Fly' a Spitfire as well as build one?

[MarkSG]

4 hours ago, eldomtom2 said:

They say that but they gave up the big train-related franchise to Bachmann...

 

If you mean Thomas, i suspect that they didn't so much give it up as were outbid for it. Bear in mind that the US rights for Thomas were already held by Bachmann (or, to be more precise, Kader), and now that the Thomas franchise itself is owned by Mattel, a US company, it's quite likely that Kader did a deal with Mattel for the global rights rather than having them split among different manufacturers in different territories. In this context, it probably also matters that, although Hornby is the biggest fish in the British pond, Kader is the biggest fish in the global sea. So, although the Thomas franchise isn't as good a fit for Bachmann's UK operation as it used to be for Hornby, it's a big deal globally for Kader and I expect they were prepared to pay the asking price for exclusivity.

[eldomtom2]

That's not the way Hornby announced the news - there it seemed more like they were seeing the brand as unprofitable for them and voluntarily ceasing production.

[Mr chapman]

Having had a look at the N gauge offerings from Bachmann I can honestly say they don't look as good as the tomix stuff. Pity they didn't do more, it ran beautifully. 

[MarkSG]

20 minutes ago, eldomtom2 said:

That's not the way Hornby announced the news - there it seemed more like they were seeing the brand as unprofitable for them and voluntarily ceasing production.

 

"Unprofitable" = "we can't make money on it given the amount we are being asked to pay for it".

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

3 minutes ago, eldomtom2 said:

That's not the way Hornby announced the news - there it seemed more like they were seeing the brand as unprofitable for them and voluntarily ceasing production.

It's quite possible that this was essentially true, (though rather then 'unprofitable', not as profitable as alternative usage of the manufacturing slots) and is not incompatible with Kader with their greater global marketing reach and volume finding it an advantageous deal.

[Clearwater]

47 minutes ago, eldomtom2 said:

That's not the way Hornby announced the news - there it seemed more like they were seeing the brand as unprofitable for them and voluntarily ceasing production.

 

26 minutes ago, MarkSG said:

 

"Unprofitable" = "we can't make money on it given the amount we are being asked to pay for it".

Or it could be profitable but less profitable than alternative use of those factory production slots.

 

I’d be interested to know what Hornby have been paying and how that licensing fee has been structured:  is it a flat fee or proportional on each item of sales?  How, when it goes, will it help them move back closer to actually being profitable?  I’d expect the MD will have gone through the figures for each item of the range to develop his turnaround plan. 

[eldomtom2]

6 hours ago, woodenhead said:

Lego have a long tradition of integration with IT - they had PC games back in the 1990s and of course Lego Technik to keep people using the brand as they grew up.

 

Then they took the leap into associations with films whilst they have created some original content their main foray has to link up with an established medium and Lego it - Harry Potter, Batman etc and with Forza they are doing the same sort of thing - take something popular and put a Lego spin on it.

 

Very successful and it means their market is very broad, adults love the Harry Potter stuff as much as children do.

 

They also don't take themselves seriously meaning their versions are always fun and now they actually do films involving Lego characters.

 

Can't every see Hornby being this successful when it comes to integrating with Films and games - TTTE and Harry Potter excepted - there was an obvious train link.

 

Fast and Furious Scalextrix anyone?

The advantage of Lego as a brand outside of the construction sets is its recognisable and distinct nature. What makes a Hornby train different from a real train in a virtual space?

[woodenhead]

5 minutes ago, eldomtom2 said:

The advantage of Lego as a brand outside of the construction sets is its recognisable and distinct nature. What makes a Hornby train different from a real train in a virtual space?

Especially when there are already a lot of companies out there marketing very high quality Virtual train applications.

 

I could imagine a scenario where Hornby partner with an existing producer of such software with a Hornby wrapping added - now would this version be limited to actual locos and stock that Hornby produce in model form or exactly as the main product with Hornby slapped on the wrapping.

 

I seem to recall they were looking at augmented reality rather than virtual, so a pair of Hornby goggles to put your model train into a different environment or a filter on your phone - the mind boggles really.

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

16 minutes ago, woodenhead said:

...could imagine a scenario where Hornby partner with an existing producer of such software with a Hornby wrapping added - now would this version be limited to actual locos and stock that Hornby produce in model form or exactly as the main product with Hornby slapped on the wrapping.

 

I seem to recall they were looking at augmented reality rather than virtual, so a pair of Hornby goggles to put your model train into a different environment or a filter on your phone - the mind boggles really.

'Augmented reality' development has endless possibilities. I might well buy into an 'augmenting' headset system that added appropriate exhaust, sound and other audiovisual effects to the real moving model trains on the layout, populates platforms with moving passengers and staff in time with arrivals and departures, and supplies correct background noises of signal box bells, singing signal wires, signal arm and point rodding movement sounds mapped onto the layout scene. (I doubt that everyone would want the pieces of bog roll swirling in the vortices remaining after the express has passed, but would hope to find it in the 'weirdo options' menu.)

 

Major mindset shift for a model railway manufacturer. I can see it being an easier concept for a track or DCC producer, for whom 'universality' is already in place: 'any make of train runs on our track / with our control system'.

[ruggedpeak]

On 31/12/2019 at 10:16, woodenhead said:

Lego have a long tradition of integration with IT - they had PC games back in the 1990s and of course Lego Technik to keep people using the brand as they grew up.

 

Then they took the leap into associations with films whilst they have created some original content their main foray has to link up with an established medium and Lego it - Harry Potter, Batman etc and with Forza they are doing the same sort of thing - take something popular and put a Lego spin on it.

 

Very successful and it means their market is very broad, adults love the Harry Potter stuff as much as children do.

 

They also don't take themselves seriously meaning their versions are always fun and now they actually do films involving Lego characters.

 

Can't every see Hornby being this successful when it comes to integrating with Films and games - TTTE and Harry Potter excepted - there was an obvious train link.

 

Fast and Furious Scalextrix anyone?

Lego took their well known brand and tried to become the biggest toy brand on the planet expanding into computer games, clothing, theme parks and more, partly because sales of normal Lego sets were slowing and the future did not look good for "old fashioned toys". They lost sight of their core business and attributes - exactly what the last management of Hornby did, with the same results.

 

By 2003 Lego was virtually bankrupt - the film and other linkups was part of the innovation process to recover the company by finding new and profitable ways to return its focus to its core brand and skills around making Lego sets. This was hugely effective (even though sales have slowed recently). Hornby would be wise to follow the Lego route as there are a lot of similarities from a business and strategy perspective. The good news is that this turnaround is well documented. I think they have taken some of those lessons and used them - we will found out on Monday.

[adb968008]

dont mention AR... ive been touting it for 2 years on here.. at best your laughed at.. at worst insulted, discredited, rubbished..

 

I personally think thaf AR, and ditching DCC replacing it with wifi... and even rechargable battery operated... some industry shift away from DCC will happen but I doubt the UK will be the market trailblazer, there's too many who prefer status quo.

Edited January 1, 2020 by adb968008

[No Decorum]

I wouldn’t laugh at you, insult you, attempt to discredit you or rubbish you. I like video games. Most of them, even the most gripping, tend to fade after a while. Amongst them was Microsoft’s train simulator; good whilst it lasted. The physical models still enchant, though.

 

DCC has quite some way to go. Elements of what I should like to have are available but they are unwieldy. Compact versions lack the functions of the unwieldy types. Something like an NCE hand-held controller with the functionality of Hornby’s computer-based system. I think the technology to do it is available; it just needs to be designed. A mobile phone isn’t the answer, nice as they are. Buttons and a roller speed controller, please, with the function buttons labelled according to the particular locomotive installation. Ideally with the buttons themselves lit with symbols or lettering. Tactile, so that I can control the loco whilst looking at it rather than the controller.

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

36 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

... some industry shift away from DCC will happen but I doubt the UK will be the market trailblazer, there's too many who prefer status quo.

The lead for 'what's next' will most likely come from HO as that's where the market volume is. I would see this industry as having roughly forty years of the successive dominant power and control systems (clockwork, analogue electric track power, digital track power) so we are probably looking at the next rising system now. (Wireless control and a choice of power supply options looks probable to me as offering maximum backward compatability.)

 

Most likely it needs a clear 'sweeps the board' open standard based on an economical industry standard platform to grab dominant market share. (Cue endless wailing from the early adopters of the many sidelined alternatives, regarding the clear superiority of their preferred solution!)

 

22 minutes ago, No Decorum said:

...DCC has quite some way to go. Elements of what I should like to have are available but they are unwieldy. Compact versions lack the functions of the unwieldy types. Something like an NCE hand-held controller with the functionality of Hornby’s computer-based system. I think the technology to do it is available; it just needs to be designed. A mobile phone isn’t the answer, nice as they are. Buttons and a roller speed controller, please, with the function buttons labelled according to the particular locomotive installation. Ideally with the buttons themselves lit with symbols or lettering. Tactile, so that I can control the loco whilst looking at it rather than the controller.

That's interface and not specifically tied to DCC. (Personally I would have a full voice instruction interface for control, screen(s) to show status, a physical driving station as back up for when I have laryngitis. Overlaid on either of DCC or whatever 'magic moonbeams' system comes next, I care not which.)

[No Decorum]

12 minutes ago, 34theletterbetweenB&D said:

That's interface and not specifically tied to DCC. (Personally I would have a full voice instruction interface for control, screen(s) to show status, a physical driving station as back up for when I have laryngitis. Overlaid on either of DCC or whatever 'magic moonbeams' system comes next, I care not which.)

The mind boggles.

“Why won’t the b**ch steam?”

“It’s a Caprotti, Alf. Sounds as if it’s working harder than it is. Give it more welly.”

“Shut up, you cheeky b**tard! I’ve been driving ingines since before you were born.”

(Under breath) “Needs more reg’lator, you daft old b*gger.” 

By the way, the interface I envisage would be specific to DCC. If increasing computing power and memory make it switchable to work with magic moonbeams, so much the better. NASA seems to be on the job.

Edited January 1, 2020 by No Decorum
Deficient punctuation.

[Legend]

I get that DCC can make things a whole lot more exciting . I hear the roar of a Sulzer 27 leaving the station or a Paxman HST at full scream and I occasionally waiver from my DC .  I have lots of systems and computers to play with in the day job, so when I come back to play trains I don’t want to worry about my CV29 or programming sound chips because frankly I’ve had enough of it during the day!  I suppose what I’m saying is that any new developments such as remote control should be backward compatible and please please.......be simple .