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The London Festival of Railway Modelling- 21 & 22 March 2020


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It's obviously right to take all sensible precautions. There are flu's and flu's - and it goes without saying that we don't want a repetition of Spanish Flu at the beginning of last century. Obviously Corona Virus is not the same, and I'm not remotely suggesting it is..... but simply to emphasis the point that it isn't the same situation as the normal winter flu we have every year....

 

"It is estimated that one third of the global population was infected, and the World Health Organization estimates that 2–3% of those who were infected died (case-fatality ratio). Estimates vary as to the total number who died. An estimate from 1991 says it killed 25–39 million people."

https://en.wikipedia.org › wiki › Spa...

Spanish flu - Wikipedia

 

Of course we have a good proportion of both old and young at our exhibitions, so the demographic doesn't help....  hopefully modern medicine will reduce the risks involved, but the mortality rate so far is quite high (even if it is the old and sick..... counting myself there....)

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2 hours ago, phil-b259 said:

 

Firstly, we have had flu vacines avalible for many years and as such there will be a proportion of folk who avoid catching flu as a result. There is no Covid-19 vacine and the virus itself is a new one. Wvry person that survives it will end up with an imune system better positioned to fight it off in future, while in time vacines could bring the morality rates down.

 

Secondly, you haven't clarified how many of those people in itally already had underlying heath conditions (both known and unknown) which have been cited in the majority of deaths so far. We know that things like being old or young will adversely affect the ability of the immune system to right off an infection - particularly a new one.

 

Thirdly, I would susgest that due to the nature of their ocupantion, athletes may well end up being more sesnitive to respotarty illness (if your body has to work hard drawing oxygen into the lungs then you may draw in more virus 'particles' and they may travel deeper than someone else who does not require that level of lung capacity.

 

A vaccine doesn't stop you catching flu of course. It helps the body’s immune system to recognize the pathogen the next time it enters the body and fight it. In the UK, the Winter flu vaccine is often ineffective if the predicted strains injected don't match the actual virus in circulation.

 

The 7 people who died on the Diamond Princess were clearly fit enough to go on holiday, however it's to early to produce a demographic other than the normal one: over 60 and your chances of complications and death increase.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by maico
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1 hour ago, Ian J. said:

I'm pretty sure there will be some who go to an event of any kind who would lie in order for their enjoyment at the event not to be stopped.

 

They walk amongst us, everywhere.

 

They're probably the same people who probably think "It's a lot of fuss over nothing" or "I'm alright so I don't need to follow any recommendations". They're also probably the sort who don't wash their hands after visiting the toilet, don't care who they cough over and don't particularly care about the rest of their hygiene; elevating themselves from just being gross up to a hazard to society.

 

Of course they won't recognise any of the above in themselves either but if there's any element of sensibility left they may adapt their behaviour for the benefit of themselves, if not everyone else.

 

Let's try and make Ally Pally as good an environment as it can be.

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3 hours ago, Ian J. said:

How can anyone be sure that when they ask someone about Cat 1 or Cat 2 country visits, that the person asked will answer truthfully?

 

One has to take another person on trust.  Work on the basis that most people will be truthful most of the time. Short of swabbing everyone as they approach Ally Pally - which is a totally unrealistic option - we have to assume our fellow humans are mostly decent people. 

 

There are exceptions.  There may always be exceptions.  Just as there always seems to be one or two at every exhibition whose personal hygiene and backpack etiquette falls short of socially-acceptable norms.  

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1 minute ago, Ian Morgan said:

On TV the other day, they showed a Bingo Hall where all the visitors had their temperature measured with a simple forehead scanner before being allowed admittance.

 

 

I saw that and thought it a novel replacement for the ball machine.

 

88, two fat ladies, you're in.

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17 minutes ago, AY Mod said:

 

I saw that and thought it a novel replacement for the ball machine.

 

88, two fat ladies, you're in.

Do they shout Bingo when they find someone with a high temperature ?

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9 minutes ago, Phil Parker said:

I have suggested we make some visitors wear a full haz-mat suit. Not for Corona Virus, but because they fail the sniff test at the entrance...

 

Can you find a haz-mat suit big enough to fit over the out-sized rucksack too?

 

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7 hours ago, Giles said:

There are flu's and flu's - and it goes without saying that we don't want a repetition of Spanish Flu at the beginning of last century.

An added complication with the Spanish Flu epidemic was that a significant proportion of the population of Europe plus those combatants from elsewhere were in a lower than normal state of health after WW1

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24 minutes ago, TheSignalEngineer said:

An added complication with the Spanish Flu epidemic was that a significant proportion of the population of Europe plus those combatants from elsewhere were in a lower than normal state of health after WW1

 

A point worth noting is that Spanish flu hit the young hardest. Older people suffered relatively little - those under 30 bore the brunt of the deaths. The estimate seems to be 2-3% mortality, about 1/3rd infected   Spanish flu data  Mortality rates for common flu are quoted at 0.005%,( so coronavirus is substantially worse than normal flu...)

 

With coronavirus it is different - the bulk of the deaths are those over 70 . There are very few deaths under 60 . The BBC has just reported that the Italians have said the average age of those dying in Italy is 81

 

Furthermore, as far as I'm aware the sort of measures being taken now - extensive quarantine of contacts, cancelling of large gatherings, closure of theatres, cinemas etc etc were not taken in 1918. In 1918 most countries in Europe were subject to food rationing. Public transport was not suspended anywhere, at any stage, so far as I'm aware. The epidemic went on for many months

 

The realistic "worst case scenario" for coronavirus is probably a re-run of Spanish flu. The big question with this virus, though, is the rate of infection. Hubei province (pop 59 million plus) reports approximately 68,000 cases, a bit less than 0.2% infected. Even if - as is likely - they have not detected most of the mild or symptomless cases given the scale of the crisis, this is still a tiny fraction of the rate of infection of Spanish flu. And even the cruise ship Diamond Princess , which became a highly effective incubator of the virus as the internal  quarantine failed, didn't manage a 25% infection rate as far as I can understand. So far this virus is not spreading through whole populations

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Medical conditions aside who's in?  And when?  I already have one suggestion to meet on Sunday (from a non-RMwebber) and can only be there on one day.  I'll go with the majority ;) and hopefully meet a few friendly faces this time rather than missing everyone by a whisker.

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I too am planning a Saturday visit. Almost certainly by train from Ely; though unusually not via GN to KGX. I fancy a Basil rather than an ironing board 700! Hopefully a Basil to Stansted Airport, and a Stansted Express to LST for a change. I'll probably use the bus across to AP as I know my way around the bus routes, less crowded than the tube (much as I like it down there, having worked there for a number of years).

 

 

Stewart

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9 minutes ago, stewartingram said:

I'll probably use the bus across to AP

At least the W3 will only be subject to the normal traffic delays and unreliability.  Had Spurs been playing at home it might have required a hike up the hill rather than waiting for something.  There is always the event shuttle bus of course but it can get busy.  

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I intend to be at the door for 09:30 on the Saturday as per usual.

 

I got there earlier than planned a few years back and was astounded to find a queue already.  Do some people rock up at like six in the morning or something?

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24 minutes ago, John M Upton said:

Do some people rock up at like six in the morning or something?

 

About 8.30 onwards I would say; it depends on the weather and also on the transport they've used.

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28 minutes ago, John M Upton said:

I intend to be at the door for 09:30 on the Saturday as per usual.

 

I got there earlier than planned a few years back and was astounded to find a queue already.  Do some people rock up at like six in the morning or something?

There's always one.  I plan to be there at some point mid-morning.  The idea is to peruse the sales stands, grab some lunch, hopefully track down a few fellow RMwebbers and then "do" the layouts as it may be less fraught - and has been less crowded - later in the day.  

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Perhaps I should get them to put a big TV screen where my layout should go, and then I can live stream video of me running Freshwater from my shed. If it is good enough for the Pope ...

 

Actually, the BBC New channel headlines tickertape said the Pope will be live steaming today. Anyone know what scale that will be?

 

Anyway, I will probably be there, in person, driving the layout as usual. No handshaking or kissing though, please.

 

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11 minutes ago, AY Mod said:

 

About 8.30 onwards I would say; it depends on the weather and also on the transport they've used.

 

In my younger and more foolish days I've been number 2 in the queue :o

Watched a guy one year try to get in early - seemingly he'd had a stroke and needed a chair to sit on...was there one "just inside the door?".

It didn't work, and he seemingly had a miraculous recovery on the way to the Bachman returns stand.

T0sser.

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10 minutes ago, polybear said:

 

It didn't work, and he seemingly had a miraculous recovery on the way to the Bachman returns stand.

T0sser.


Presumably the miracle was seeing Lourdes of cheap trains...

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