2020 predictions?

[Roy L S]

1 hour ago, woodenhead said:

I wish to change my prediction....

 

I predict a riot

 

Thanks Woodenhead, even if said in jest your comment has made me reconsider the tone of my posting and amend it accordingly.

 

Best Wishes

 

Roy

[Roy L S]

1 hour ago, red death said:

On the issue of transition era sales, we have both our sales data (which is interesting for some of the long lived models like the sturgeons) and from speaking to retailers. On the Sturgeons we sold what we expected/needed to make the project work but there is no escaping that a shade under 50% of our sales were the two most modern liveries ie Dutch and yellow. 
 

On the 56xx, it is fair to say that sales have not been fantastic which is a pity as I think it is the best N gauge steam engine I’ve seen, certainly in terms of tank engines. It has continued to sell well and setting deadlines (to come very soon) for discounted pre-orders and retail options will help. 
 

cheers Mike

 

Thanks for the info Mike.

 

So it wasn't 50% solely Dutch ones as Grahame said, rather a combination of two liveries? Interesting all the same.

 

As the books are closed and it doesn't appear in any way commercially sensitive, would you be able give a rough percentage split of sales of the various models liveries and variants offered? 

 

As to the 56xx, having had a very close look at the loco with Mk1 eyeball at Warley, I have to agree that it more than holds it's own against any comparable models from the other manufacturers and at the early bird price is sensational value. In fact I have been mithering over ordering the BR black one which I really like as well as my existing weathered one for a good while and have decided I will - the opportunity is too good to miss. I do wonder if there may be there may be a few factors to consider that may just be making people hesitate, one being that although Sam from Sonic is hugely experienced by dint of his Farish work, as yet we haven't (as far as I know) seen any footage of this loco running. I am thinking specifically fidelity to prototype, controllability, smoothness and quietness of mechanism and slow running. Maybe allowing someone well respected in the N Gauge world for these kinds of models (GW guru Matt Pinto springs to mind) to post a review of a pre-production model might give it a bit of a push for the undecided? Word of mouth may then work that bit better too with more to base it on?

 

Anyway, it's probably time to go back on topic of Farish 2020 I'd think (I plead guilty to "topic drift" m'lud)!!

 

Best Wishes

 

Roy

 

 

[grahame]

15 hours ago, Roy L S said:

 

Thanks for the info Mike.

 

So it wasn't 50% solely Dutch ones as Grahame said,

 

 

I didn’t say it was 50%, I said around half/50%. But the fact remains that the number of pre-orders for steam era models, including the fabled sweet spot transition period, appear to have been insufficient to make the sturgeon project viable and it needed almost half of the orders to be of modern, non-steam, era liveries to get it over the line. It certainly seems that when pre-orders/EIOs are required for projects, those from the steam era are struggling more than others - for example the GW mogul, King, Beyer-Garrett, GT3, etc.

 

There does seem to be some concern about the N gauge market, and seemingly specifically the steam era sector. More producers are asking for pre-orders/EIO even if not being financed through crowd-funding like the Hatton’s B-G and Dapol’s prototype HST. And it’s probably not just about projects requiring signed up interest to get it in to production. I get the impression that the traditional manufacturers are also cottoning on that the N gauge market is no longer all about the transition era.

 

Over around the last 12 months or so it seems like Farish have only released one new steamer (and that was a pre-grouping one), have canned one, the J72, and now only have one, the 8F, in current development while they also beaver away on a host of other new projects including the class 70 with air intakes, refurbished class 31, class 47 with cutaway buffer beams and multiple unit classes 158, 319 and 450. Dapol’s recent releases of new products appear to have been the class 50, class 142 and class 68 – all diesel – and isn’t their only steamer on the books the BOB/WC. And, I believe, that exclusively steam Union Mills, possibly for the first time in a calendar year, didn’t introduce a new model despite their production batch sizes being very small and easy to match to sales. Even newcomer producers to the N market for wagons haven’t been all about the transition era: Realtrack with the PCA, C=Rail with a pocket container wagon, Sonic with a VEA and the more established crowd-funders RT with most recently a Cargowagon and PFA/KFA.

 

Time is now not to fragment the market further but recognise that all genres, eras and sectors play a part. And that there isn’t a simple sweet-spot solution, to get behind projects and not to make excuses and/or claim conspiracy theories/urban myths which will only hamper projects. Consequently I'm keen to see that the Sonic 56xx is a great success as without successful projects we are unlikely to see lots more. As I said on another thread: The N gauge market is smaller (than OO/4mm) and it will stagnate without investment, new products and effective promotion. For it to grow it needs greater exposure, promotional support and a decent range of innovative new products reaching the retailers, and people to build and showcase great quality N gauge layouts. Being a small sector of the overall model railway market, N gauge needs to be more agile, more responsive and quicker to develop and launch new product. And that doesn't exclude N enthusiasts playing their part.

[grahame]

15 hours ago, Roy L S said:

 

Anyway, it's probably time to go back on topic of Farish 2020 I'd think (I plead guilty to "topic drift" m'lud)!!

 

 

Yep, probably. ;-)

 

[Roy L S]

18 minutes ago, grahame said:

 

I didn’t say it was 50%, I said around half/50%. But the fact remains that the number of pre-orders for steam era models, including the fabled sweet spot transition period, appear to have been insufficient to make the sturgeon project viable and it needed almost half of the orders to be of modern, non-steam, era liveries to get it over the line. It certainly seems that when pre-orders/EIOs are required for projects, those from the steam era are struggling more than others - for example the GW mogul, King, Beyer-Garrett, GT3, etc.

 

There does seem to be some concern about the N gauge market, and seemingly specifically the steam era sector. More producers are asking for pre-orders/EIO even if not being financed through crowd-funding like the Hatton’s B-G and Dapol’s prototype HST. And it’s probably not just about projects requiring signed up interest to get it in to production. I get the impression that the traditional manufacturers are also cottoning on that the N gauge market is no longer all about the transition era.

 

Over around the last 12 months or so it seems like Farish have only released one new steamer (and that was a pre-grouping one), have canned one, the J72, and now only have one, the 8F, in current development while they also beaver away on a host of other new projects including the class 70 with air intakes, refurbished class 31, class 47 with cutaway buffer beams and multiple unit classes 158, 319 and 450. Dapol’s recent releases of new products appear to have been the class 50, class 142 and class 68 – all diesel – and isn’t their only steamer on the books the BOB/WC. And, I believe, that exclusively steam Union Mills, possibly for the first time in a calendar year, didn’t introduce a new model despite their production batch sizes being very small and easy to match to sales. Even newcomer producers to the N market for wagons haven’t been all about the transition era: Realtrack with the PCA, C=Rail with a pocket container wagon, Sonic with a VEA and the more established crowd-funders RT with most recently a Cargowagon and PFA/KFA.

 

Time is now not to fragment the market further but recognise that all genres, eras and sectors play a part. And that there isn’t a simple sweet-spot solution, to get behind projects and not to make excuses and/or claim conspiracy theories/urban myths which will only hamper projects. Consequently I'm keen to see that the Sonic 56xx is a great success as without successful projects we are unlikely to see lots more. As I said on another thread: The N gauge market is smaller (than OO/4mm) and it will stagnate without investment, new products and effective promotion. For it to grow it needs greater exposure, promotional support and a decent range of innovative new products reaching the retailers, and people to build and showcase great quality N gauge layouts. Being a small sector of the overall model railway market, N gauge needs to be more agile, more responsive and quicker to develop and launch new product. And that doesn't exclude N enthusiasts playing their part.

 

Hi Grahame

 

My understanding was that the Sturgeon was chosen precisely because it was so long lived and would appeal to a huge spread of modellers rather than a single epoch, the same is true of the Class B tanks which from all accounts sold incredibly well in the traditional liveries. Hopefully we will see a similar story for Class As.

 

Over the last 12 months it is true that only the C Class steam loco has been physically produced and released in N by Bachmann, but to be strictly fair, while pre-grouping in origin, the loco survived in traffic until 1962 (three then in departmental use until 1966), so it reaches a huge range of modellers (actually also including preservation). The C has raised the bar in many ways and is a precedent of what is to come steam wise I would predict, being Next 18 enabled/plug & play sound-ready. Indeed with the addition of a suitable sound decoder, adding sound is quite literally a two minute job - I have one, it is a terrific model. That said, I don't think (please correct me) there has been a single ground-up new tool diesel release from Bachmann in the same period? The J72 was canned not through any lack of demand but because of technical challenges that they could not overcome (or at least not at an acceptable price-point). 

 

So yes, that leaves just the 8F in the Bachmann inventory to come steam wise currently, but I think your comparison is somewhat unfair as a number of the models you mention are nothing more than minor retools of existing models and as far as sound enabled chassis retools go, they will I believe include transition livery diesels too. It is also interesting that Bachmann didn't start with the refurbished models, rather the green and blue ones and that wasn't an accidental decision I am sure.

 

Please do keep in mind that the transition period isn't/wasn't all about steam locos, part of the attraction is the appearance of different new (some rather quirky) diesel classes in the period and even blue-grey Mk1s and early Mk2s were often in the consist of steam hauled trains in the last couple of years of steam. 

 

Turning to Dapol, you will know that the Pacer has been many years in gestation, it is not a new announcement, and the 50 was previously announced and then shelved for commercial reasons as well as the BoB/W/C. Having exclusive rights to the 68 made it's production inevitable in N, and that is a good thing, it is a delightful model of an iconic prototype which some liken to a modern day "Deltic" I am personally really pleased it is available.

 

Union Mills. No brand new loco this year it is true, and I do appreciate it isn't your area of expertise, but please do check before posting. The reason is because for 2019 Colin Heard has concentrated on going back over his entire portfolio of models to re-run a variety of locos that were no longer in stock.

 

Beyer Garratt - talked to death. A variety of issues are responsible for poor take up, not just the type of loco which actually barely scrapes into the transition period at all anyway. GT3 - there was never going to be sufficient demand for this in N in my view and for the same reason I think the Fell will struggle, our market is just too small by comparison to 00 and it is an interesting illustration of how comparative market sizes may impact viability (or otherwise) of niche products. If 00 is indeed 5 times larger than N in terms of volume sales that means a GT3 in N that attracts 200 -300 crashes and burns. In 00 if it attracts by proportion say 1200 - 1500 as a crowd funded venture it succeeds...

 

Finally all the granular comparison misses a significant question for me in this discussion. Can you clarify what your position is?  On the one hand you are saying how important the entire spread of models is to the health of N, and how you want the 56xx to succeed, then in the next breath you appear to be taking every opportunity to champion your own "position" and talk importance of steam models in particular down. I am happy to totally support the position that a spread of models from all eras is what is needed and get behind that principle, but whether we like it or not, how that is weighted is down to those whose money is at risk and that's generally not us modellers!

 

Best Wishes

 

Roy

[grahame]

3 minutes ago, Roy L S said:

 

So yes, that leaves just the 8F in the Bachmann inventory to come steam wise currently, but I think your comparison is somewhat unfair as a number of the models you mention are nothing more than minor retools of existing models

 

Nope, according to Farish the class 158 and refurbished 31 are all new models with fully newly tooled bodies and chassis. The class 319, of course, has never been done before and is certainly not a minor retool. I didn't mention the minor sound upgrade re-tool 2019 announcements like the class 17, 5MT, class 40, class 60, class 101, class 150 and class 47/7. 

 

3 minutes ago, Roy L S said:

 

Union Mills. No brand new loco this year it is true, and I do appreciate it isn't your area of expertise, but please do check before posting. 

 

Why, that sounds very arrogant - are you now a moderator telling people to check before posting. And check with who? The fact is true and you've confirmed it.

 

The rest of your comments sound like the usual excuses (niche, wrong geography, period, etc.) and give the impression of a picky sector of the market.

 

3 minutes ago, Roy L S said:

 . . . . you are saying how important the entire spread of models is to the health of N, and how you want the 56xx to succeed, then in the next breath you appear to be taking every opportunity to champion your own "position" and talk importance of steam models in particular down.

 

Nope, I think you are missing the point I'm raising. 

[John M Upton]

Back on topic, 2020 speculation.

 

I would be interested in seeing what additions there are to the building and accessories range, there are some really nice models there.

[woodenhead]

With no focus on O gauge, interest in 009 growing and OO being stolen from under it's feet by newcomers then you'd think Bachmann might make N it's own again - the mechanisms for 009 can benefit N gauge especially the 0-4-0 mechanism for the Hunslet should mean models like the J72 surely have to be back on not to mention industrials.

 

 

[Roy L S]

46 minutes ago, grahame said:

 

Nope, according to Farish the class 158 and refurbished 31 are all new models with fully newly tooled bodies and chassis. The class 319, of course, has never been done before and is certainly not a minor retool. I didn't mention the minor sound upgrade re-tool 2019 announcements like the class 17, 5MT, class 40, class 60, class 101, class 150 and class 47/7. 

 

 

Why, that sounds very arrogant - are you now a moderator telling people to check before posting. And check with who? The fact is true and you've confirmed it.

 

The rest of your comments sound like the usual excuses (niche, wrong geography, period, etc.) and give the impression of a picky sector of the market.

 

 

Nope, I think you are missing the point I'm raising. 

 

I don't think I am missing the point at all. It is becoming quite clear to me Grahame that what you appear to delight in doing, ignoring facts that don't fit your agenda - you continue to do it here. 

 

Class 31 - the new sound enabled chassis is not solely for the refurbished models - it will be used under a green and blue model too. The 450 you previously mentioned is a minor retool, ditto the Class 70. I made no reference to the other models' minor upgrades - not clear why you now feel the need to (albeit I suspect the Class 15 - not 17 by the way - chassis upgrade for sound will be anything but simple). 

 

Union Mills - you gave half a story which totally misrepresents the position, I correct you and suggest you should check the reason (it has been publicised - but Colin is a nice chap you could check with him) and then call me arrogant? I don't think the arrogant one here is me...

 

The "rest of" my comments do nothing of the sort. It is simply how you have chosen to interpret them. The GT3 and Beyer Garratt are not by anyone's definition mainstream models, no "excuses" necessary, it is not a reflection on a particular segment of the Market's "pickiness" just these models and comparative economies of scale relative to 00.

 

The longer this "dialogue" has gone on the clearer it becomes to me that you have no respect for other people's views unless they align with your own, as if yours are in some way "superior" (which they are not) - now that is a dictionary definition of arrogant..

 

Roy

 

[Roy L S]

13 minutes ago, woodenhead said:

With no focus on O gauge, interest in 009 growing and OO being stolen from under it's feet by newcomers then you'd think Bachmann might make N it's own again - the mechanisms for 009 can benefit N gauge especially the 0-4-0 mechanism for the Hunslet should mean models like the J72 surely have to be back on not to mention industrials.

 

 

 

Hi Woodenhead

 

I think that is a very interesting observation. I totally agree that an integral DCC chip makes the J72 and other smaller models more viable, and by logical extension may make DCC in the 03/04/08 a prospect too.

 

It is interesting that Dapol have now focussed more on O Gauge but this is perhaps no surprise given that Richard Webster (formerly of Lionheart) is now on board, as is his old O range now rolled up with Dapol and I am sure his joining is a factor. However I guess the question must be how long the O Gauge "bubble" lasts and the depth of the Market with other players like Heljan, Minerva and Ixion  in the frame? Certainly there appears a lot of spending power in that scale at present, but it seems to me that in modern houses less room for layouts beyond "shunting planks" so I do wonder if it is sustainable (pondering only - no facts).

 

Certainly it appears Bachmann have identified an opportunity in 009, and are focussing resources there, but for me the same question arises, how "big" is the Market for 009 how much room for growth and for how long? So yes, N does seem a little forgotten and could be a renewed target for investment by someone potentially when/if  others hit saturation point. Let's hope this is the case long term, even if in 2020 our expectations from Bachmann need to be somewhat lower.

 

Interesting point from John Upton and easily overlooked, the excellent building range may certainly be a place for a few new models, but what would hit the spot???

 

Roy

[grahame]

18 minutes ago, Roy L S said:

 

I don't think I am missing the point at all. It is becoming quite clear to me Grahame that what you appear to delight in doing, ignoring facts that don't fit your agenda - you continue to do it here. 

 

The longer this "dialogue" has gone on the clearer it becomes to me that you have no respect for other people's views unless they align with your own, as if yours are in some way "superior" (which they are not) - now that is a dictionary definition of arrogant..

 

 

That sounds very much like what you are doing. Refusing to acknowledge, ignoring and twisting facts, thinking you know best and being deliberately obtuse and misunderstanding. You know nothing of my 'position', have no respect for anything I say and I'm afraid your comments are increasingly intrenched. I'll not bother to comment any more.

[woodenhead]

Class 15 or 17 - do you two know something the rest of us dont?

 

Or should it have been class 170?

 

On the O gauge side, I do agree the present rush is based I think on a recognition of an amount of disposable income in a certain market being exploited to the full - not many people have the space to go beyond a plank so you are getting the plethora archetypal GWR branchline and the diesel engine shed which the manufacturers are plundering with their offerings.  I do think Ellis trains are marketing to the traditional O gauge modellers with their coaches and Black 5 ditto with Hattons.

 

I've tried twice now to begin selling my N stock, and whilst I did sell a HST, my Gresleys and some older Mk2 aircons the rest I am firmly stuck with and in that decluttering venacular when I look at them I see I am still emotionally attached to them.  Conversely, my old 009, my original trains from 1970s will be sold as soon as I can get the wheeled cleaned up and have them running.

[tomparryharry]

I can't remember if I did the other bit, but....

 

I can predict with certainty that we will expect to see the same generic 4-wheeled goods wagon , with all 4 liveries. These will bear an outstanding similarity to other similar models we've grown to see over the years.

 

But.....

 

Expect a whopping % increase on last years models, just like other years, really.

 

Meet the new boss, same as the old boss...

 

Late news! I also predict a generic 4-wheel wagon, but with the brandings of  S&DJR, LT&SR,  M&SWJR & GNoSr. There! that ought to shake it up (just) a little bit......

[Bomag]

20 hours ago, red death said:

This needs some clarification, no one is forcing the internet on anyone. That would be self-defeating both for the retailer and customer but from the retailer’s perspective we’re offering the only option we can. We both work full time and so having retail premises or taking orders over the phone is not possible. We do stock retailers for anyone who prefers to buy in person/by phone/wait till they see a model etc. Though we haven’t finalised the retail details for the 56xx. 
 

Having said which how many people really can’t access the internet now? An increasingly small number and there is always the option of asking friends/family/local library. Part of the point of the internet is not about forcing anyone to do anything using it but to allow people to come together and get something that otherwise wouldn’t happen or would cost substantially more. 
 

cheers Mike

 

The percentage of the population who does not access the internet is about 20% depending on the metric used (no I am not going to share the statistics I have as they are commercially sensitive). This is made up of those who cannot afford regular access, those whose who are incapable of accessing the internet and those who have no wish to do so.  In terms of protected characteristics all three are statistically significant in terms of disability and/or age;  of course that is inconvenient for the 'digital by default' mindset in some government departments. If you are looking at adults with their own homes (the potential market) it is at least 10%, although where surveys are done face to face this goes up to about 15%.

 

Your last paragraph rather reflects the point of many who do not use the internet, they feel as though they are being marginalised. One quote I read was along the lines of 'I am fed up with being considered a second class person and marginalised because I don't use the internet. What is worst is that I am considered thick and stupid for not wanting to use it'.

 

As a private company you are free, within legal limitations, on how you run your company and starting to sell through shops definitely helps in reaching the remaining 10-15% of the market

[Phil Parker]

If @Roy L S and @grahame could calm it down a bit, I won't have to do any moderating on a Sunday.

[Phil Parker]

12 minutes ago, Bomag said:

As a private company you are free, within legal limitations, on how you run your company and starting to sell through shops definitely helps in reaching the remaining 10-15% of the market

 

The trouble is this requires you to set up a distribution channel, contact a lot of shops (400+) to sell your product and then take a hit on price so they get a margin. Will the increase in scales to this 10-15% make up for the cost of this? I suspect when we are talking about a single N gauge loco, the answer is going to be no.

[Bomag]

1 hour ago, Roy L S said:

 

I don't think I am missing the point at all. It is becoming quite clear to me Grahame that what you appear to delight in doing, ignoring facts that don't fit your agenda - you continue to do it here. 

 

Class 31 - the new sound enabled chassis is not solely for the refurbished models - it will be used under a green and blue model too. The 450 you previously mentioned is a minor retool, ditto the Class 70. I made no reference to the other models' minor upgrades - not clear why you now feel the need to (albeit I suspect the Class 15 - not 17 by the way - chassis upgrade for sound will be anything but simple). 

 

Union Mills - you gave half a story which totally misrepresents the position, I correct you and suggest you should check the reason (it has been publicised - but Colin is a nice chap you could check with him) and then call me arrogant? I don't think the arrogant one here is me...

 

The "rest of" my comments do nothing of the sort. It is simply how you have chosen to interpret them. The GT3 and Beyer Garratt are not by anyone's definition mainstream models, no "excuses" necessary, it is not a reflection on a particular segment of the Market's "pickiness" just these models and comparative economies of scale relative to 00.

 

The longer this "dialogue" has gone on the clearer it becomes to me that you have no respect for other people's views unless they align with your own, as if yours are in some way "superior" (which they are not) - now that is a dictionary definition of arrogant..

 

Roy

 

 

Sorry, is that supposed to be satire? Neither Grahame (or myself) is extrapolating an example and trying to make profound statements as to the whole of the market. While I disagree with some of Grahame's points in other posts and mediums he is perfectly correct here.

 

Going back to predictions I think Fairish really want to do a sound 37 if they can get it to sound right in the space available. Other than that I think D&E will be limited to upgraded existing tooling + chassis as mentioned elsewhere.  I expect there will be one new kettle, no new coaches but with possibly a couple of new wagons

[gc4946]

Next year will be the 50th anniversary of the original Graham Farish's foray into N (source: Wikipedia - edited for spelling) 

 

The initial launch consisted of a 94XX pannier, 4 wheel coaches, bogie suburban stock (based on Period 2 LMS suburban stock) and mainline bogie stock (based on Southern coaches)

As Bachmann has a OO scale 94XX in development, my guess is that the same loco will be announced in N. 

 

 

 

Edited December 29, 2019 by gc4946

[Bomag]

40 minutes ago, Phil Parker said:

 

The trouble is this requires you to set up a distribution channel, contact a lot of shops (400+) to sell your product and then take a hit on price so they get a margin. Will the increase in scales to this 10-15% make up for the cost of this? I suspect when we are talking about a single N gauge loco, the answer is going to be no.

 

While there is the option of getting a distributor to help with getting stuff to shops, as with many smaller brands, I was not implying that small manufactures need to get models into every shop. Getting models into the larger shops who do mail order and advertise in the modelling press will likely cover most of the potential market who do not want to use the internet.      

[Littlethorpe]

Chicken & egg issue here I think. I don't think that the N Gauge market is as poor as suggested.

 

I'm sure that there are many modellers like myself who are frustrated at the lack of products available to purchase.  All my recent loco purchases have been second hand.

 

Farish do not currently offer any Peaks (Class 44,45,46), Black 5, Jubilee or Scot. I would purchase at least 1 of all 6. Will order an 8F when available. I'll be dissapointed if the Hattons Garratt gets canned. I made an EOI for the KRM GT3. I hope that Dapol re-issue the 9F, ideally with a new mechanism.

 

I recently renewed by Bachmann Collectors Club Membership but if there are no new Farish loco announcements in the next 12 months then I won't do so again.

 

 

Edited December 29, 2019 by Littlethorpe
typo

[Roy L S]

1 hour ago, Bomag said:

 

Sorry, is that supposed to be satire? Neither Grahame (or myself) is extrapolating an example and trying to make profound statements as to the whole of the market. While I disagree with some of Grahame's points in other posts and mediums he is perfectly correct here.

 

Going back to predictions I think Fairish really want to do a sound 37 if they can get it to sound right in the space available. Other than that I think D&E will be limited to upgraded existing tooling + chassis as mentioned elsewhere.  I expect there will be one new kettle, no new coaches but with possibly a couple of new wagons

 

Hi Bomag

 

No, it wasn't supposed to be satire, as far as I can tell looking back over my postings to re-check I have not wilfully twisted or misrepresented anything, but I absolutely acknowledge that others are entitled to a contra opinion or to view things differently. For my part, I do accept that the whole dialogue with Grahame got more heated than (with hindsight) I would ever have wished it to, and for that I must (and do) on reflection accept my share of responsibility. 

 

Back on topic, the Class 37 appears to be a very logical choice for the sound/chassis upgrade, and I think it a strong possibility. It certainly appears extremely "do-able" as a fair number of recent DCC 6 pin ready models have been converted in a variety of different ways. My own has the chassis milled out for a Sugar-cube speaker, a hardwired Loksound decoder and a Jamie Goodman sound file - it is pretty loud! The "tractor" sound is wonderfully iconic and I am sure right across a range of different variants/liveries would do very well if sound fit were a simple "Next 18" plug and play.

 

I would like to think a new tool steam loco will feature, but I agree, probably only one. I do wonder though, given it's absence form the catalogue for some time whether what we might see is a return of the Black Five with loco drive and Next 18 sound ready, I stress I am just thinking out loud on that, we may just as easily see nothing.

 

Agreed, no coaches. The Thompsons completes a presence of coaches for each of the "Big 4" and if anything, all we might get is maroon ones announced. Personally though I think it doubtful until the Blood and Custard ones (typically appearing to be slower sellers) hit the market and have a chance to sell through. I would love to see some pre-nationalisation Suburban coaches but think the now long in the tooth (but still nice) Dapol B Set coaches is probably as much as we will ever get RTR in N. For all of that, we are better off now for prototypically accurate coaches that we have ever been in British N so I am grateful for that.

 

Wagons, quite honestly I don't know. It seems that a lot of other smaller manufacturers are getting in on this particular act so I wouldn't be at all surprised if we see nothing at all. 

 

Regards

 

Roy

 

 

 

 

[Roy L S]

3 hours ago, tomparryharry said:

I can't remember if I did the other bit, but....

 

I can predict with certainty that we will expect to see the same generic 4-wheeled goods wagon , with all 4 liveries. These will bear an outstanding similarity to other similar models we've grown to see over the years.

 

But.....

 

Expect a whopping % increase on last years models, just like other years, really.

 

Meet the new boss, same as the old boss...

 

Late news! I also predict a generic 4-wheel wagon, but with the brandings of  S&DJR, LT&SR,  M&SWJR & GNoSr. There! that ought to shake it up (just) a little bit......

 

Hi Tom

 

I am pretty sure that all Farish wagons are modelled on actual prototypes rather than something generic, hard to disagree on the pricing comment though.

 

Best Wishes

 

Roy

[Paddy]

Hi Folks,

 

I wonder by how much any British model railway market is growing?  Could it simply be an overall cake which is shrinking slowly but where it is divided differently.  Is the O gauge bubble funded by modellers moving from other scales?  We have been very fortunate in N gauge over the last 20 years but it would seem all this investment has not lead to a much larger market.

 

For British N gauge to be viable we need all eras, types etc. to cross-support each other.  However, I fear even this approach may not work for too long.  N gauge may become a modeller’s scale like 3mm rather than a mass produced RTR option.  Logic would have suggested that by now with homes getting ever smaller that N gauge would be growing in popularity - this does not seem to be the case.  As to why?  I am baffled.

 

Possibly N gauge is suffering from the same problem as Tri-ang TT, i.e. the little one costs as much if not more than the bigger one.  The perceived value is with the larger scales.

 

As for British steam locomotives, each release seems to come with tails of poor quality, bad running, non prototypical haulage etc.  May be the fact is, that to produce high quality (appearance, fidelity, all wheel drive, DCC, sound etc.) the prices need to be significantly higher?  Would there be a market though for a £300 N gauge steam locomotive to this standard?
 

I love N gauge and we all need to work together to ensure it’s long term viability.  However, I fear no one is going to get rich from selling N gauge models.

 

As for a prediction/desire - some wooden sided Pullman cars please. 
 

Kind regards 

 

Paddy

Edited December 29, 2019 by Paddy

[tomparryharry]

1 hour ago, Roy L S said:

 

Hi Tom

 

I am pretty sure that all Farish wagons are modelled on actual prototypes rather than something generic, hard to disagree on the pricing comment though.

 

Best Wishes

 

Roy

Hello Roy, apologies.

 

I was talking about 4mm stuff.... Ooops!

 

[Davexoc]

4 hours ago, woodenhead said:

Class 15 or 17 - do you two know something the rest of us dont?

 

Or should it have been class 170?

 

I think they both meant class 14, but the rising red mist must have blurred their keyboards.....