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2020 predictions?


Mr chapman
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24 minutes ago, Roy L S said:

 

Hi Les

 

I haven't heard anyone say there is any perception of a fall in British N sales, I am sure I read somewhere that there remains growth, just not as much as Bachmann had hoped which they find frustrating.

 

That said, a healthy and reliable supply is of course essential to maintain sales, and whether it be re-liveries from Bachmann's already extensive N portfolio or new tool, I an sure Bachmann (and others) are aware of that. 

 

As to your point on comparative pricing when related to British v's other prototypes from overseas there will be many factors, in particular economies of scale, but for me it is totally irrelevant because however cheap comparatively speaking Continental or American N is it is not what I want to model so I will not buy.

 

I am sure Bachmann are alive to price sensitivity, but we have to be realistic. We are talking of a comparatively low volume market in British N compared to others and therefore price will reflect that. Even still I do not consider a C Class Next 18 enabled with speaker unreasonably priced at (with 15% discount) about £115 and even less so the yet to be released 8F with sound, discounted at about £215.

 

I would also add that there are plenty of other examples of US and continental models that are eye-wateringly expensive compared to Farish!

 

Regards

 

Roy 

 

It is a few years now since Bachmann's global Head went on record to say that he didn't see why the UK should pay a lot less than Europe when we demand similar levels of quality.  Farish and Bachmann prices have been rising relative to everyone else's since.   

 

If Sonic can turn out a 56xx for £91 it does make £114.95 for a Farish 94xx seem expensive, and that is before the 2020 price hike.

 

Prices are getting to continental levels- at RRP a typical Fleischmann diesel with sound will set you back about £250, while a Farish 40 with sound is £245 and a Dapol 68 with sound is £250.  All of these are less any discount offered.  Years ago I used to look at the adverts in the Railway Modeller where Hills as importers kept Fleischmann at between three and five times the price of the equivalent UK outline models.  Likewise a Liliput 2-6-2T would set you back four or five times the price of a UK outline one.  

 

As to whether there is a growth or a decline in N depends on who you talk to, and the same applies to N gauge as a share of the market- is it 20% or is it a fifth of the OO market?  Indeed there are some that quote the last two figures in the same sentence....

 

Les

 

 

 

 

Edited by Les1952
typo
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1 hour ago, Les1952 said:

As to whether there is a growth or a decline in N depends on who you talk to, and the same applies to N gauge as a share of the market- is it 20% or is it a fifth of the OO market?  Indeed there are some that quote the last two figures in the same sentence....

 

Les

 

 

 

 

Errrrmm?:scratchhead:

 

John P

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2 hours ago, Les1952 said:

If Sonic can turn out a 56xx for £91 it does make £114.95 for a Farish 94xx seem expensive, and that is before the 2020 price hike.

 

The Sonic price is direct from Revolution, the MSRP for retailers who decide to sell it is £100 (per the Revolution product page).

 

It is also unknown what price any further locos from Sonic would be at.

 

2 hours ago, Les1952 said:

As to whether there is a growth or a decline in N depends on who you talk to, and the same applies to N gauge as a share of the market- is it 20% or is it a fifth of the OO market?  Indeed there are some that quote the last two figures in the same sentence....

 

And why wouldn't they?  1/5 = 0.20 = 20%

 

 

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I would think one of the big issues at the moment is not so much the prices as the supply, new production (be it new tooling or new releases of existing tooling) of Farish models seems particularly in comparison with Bachmann's OO scale ranges to have trickled almost to a halt at times over the last couple of years, resulting in not much to actually buy!!

 

Bachmann were making big noises eighteen months or more ago about new production facilities, speeded up production lead times, clearing the backlog, etc.  All very optimistic and positive at the time but since then if anything things have stagnated or maybe even got worse.  Was Bachmann's much lauded new production facilities capability announcement just a load of PR and hot air?

 

Then there is the Limited Editions and Rep Specials which in OO have been coming thick and fast yet in N there has been pretty much nothing.

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5 hours ago, John M Upton said:

Bachmann were making big noises eighteen months or more ago about new production facilities, speeded up production lead times, clearing the backlog, etc.  All very optimistic and positive at the time but since then if anything things have stagnated or maybe even got worse.  Was Bachmann's much lauded new production facilities capability announcement just a load of PR and hot air?

 

Given the movements seen in the OO range, not PR and hot air.

 

As to why the lack of N product, no idea, but one possibility is simplifying things by getting the new facilities going in OO first with N to follow - if you are training an entirely new workforce you want to keep things manageable to start with until they get experienced.

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9 hours ago, mdvle said:

 

The Sonic price is direct from Revolution, the MSRP for retailers who decide to sell it is £100 (per the Revolution product page).

 

It is also unknown what price any further locos from Sonic would be at.

 

 

And why wouldn't they?  1/5 = 0.20 = 20%

 

 

I think @Les1952 was saying it was being  quoted as either 20% of the TOTAL model railway market (z, n, oo, o, Gauge 1, etc)  or 20% of just the OO market. 

 

I think his point was it can't be both........

 

I may be wrong

 

Best


Scott

 

 

Edited by scottystitch
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12 hours ago, Roy L S said:

I haven't heard anyone say there is any perception of a fall in British N sales, I am sure I read somewhere that there remains growth, just not as much as Bachmann had hoped which they find frustrating.

 

When I've spoken to the Bachmann reps inside their stand their comments have been that N gauge modelers were asking for better detail, higher quality finish and more mechanical reliability which they feel they are now delivering, and I think justifiably so. Despite returning a small increase in that ratio of N vs OO sales, there is a sense of frustration that the share of the market doesn't increase faster given the investment they have made and there is now a move to add better value to their models via the sound & lighting functions in an attempt to further increase that ratio. The sound fitted models have proven very popular, and I was told they wish they'd ordered double the number of sound fitted Class 40's in the initial batch! 

 

I do agree with @John M Upton though, it's difficult to buy models if they're not on the shelves, and Bachmann need to start getting them out much quicker. The further delay to the MK.2Fs seems absolutely bonkers considering the already extended production time, not to mention that we are being subjected to price rises on these models due only to Bachmann's inability to actually get them produced and in the shops. I wonder how many potential impulse Fairsh sales have been lost through people simply getting fed up of waiting and buying something else, especially as we now have the likes of RevolutioN and others filling the vacuum left by Bachmann's production problems and Dapol's reduced N Gauge output post DJ. 

 

So, if Bachmann are reading this, come on guys, get those models out there on the shelves so we can buy them!!

 

Tom.  

Edited by TomE
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1 hour ago, TomE said:

it's difficult to buy models if they're not on the shelves

I think this is the crux of the problem - the spending in the N gauge market is limited by what’s on offer.... if it isn’t available, it can’t be bought!!!

 

I reckon a few years ago I was averaging half a dozen Farish loco purchases per year; I just checked and in calendar year 2019, I bought just one loco (which, although was a new release, was just a re-livery of existing tooling) and x6 mk2a coaches.... that was all. By contrast, I did buy a number of models from Dapol, RevolutioN and Realtrack. So I think Bachmann is the problem, not the market!

 

Moreover, if that ‘buying pattern’ is replicated by many of us, then I can see why Bachmann might think the market isn’t as large as they would hope.... BUT, that belies the truth of the matter.... I would gladly buy some air con mk2s and one or two TPE 350 and a 31 in NR yellow, but where are they???! I can only buy what’s put in front of me.

 

Ironically, I’m probably as frustrated at lack of models as Bachmann are at the apparent lack of market appetite.

 

PS: my knowledge and comment is framed by modelling era of mid-90s onwards.... the situation might be different for different eras.

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I agree. There are plenty of Farish models I would like to buy, but they are not available. Again I model post 2000 so maybe earlier periods are better served, but on my list would be.

 

CL150, CL158, CL319, TPE CL350, new liveries/ numbers for CL66 & CL70. More bogie Cement tanks, and other modern wagons. At advertised prices for their new releases, that would set me back over 1000 pounds, just buying one of each.

 

Regards,

 

John P

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1 hour ago, JR_P said:

I think this is the crux of the problem - the spending in the N gauge market is limited by what’s on offer.... if it isn’t available, it can’t be bought!!!

 

I reckon a few years ago I was averaging half a dozen Farish loco purchases per year; I just checked and in calendar year 2019, I bought just one loco (which, although was a new release, was just a re-livery of existing tooling) and x6 mk2a coaches.... that was all. By contrast, I did buy a number of models from Dapol, RevolutioN and Realtrack. So I think Bachmann is the problem, not the market!

 

Moreover, if that ‘buying pattern’ is replicated by many of us, then I can see why Bachmann might think the market isn’t as large as they would hope.... BUT, that belies the truth of the matter.... I would gladly buy some air con mk2s and one or two TPE 350 and a 31 in NR yellow, but where are they???! I can only buy what’s put in front of me.

 

Ironically, I’m probably as frustrated at lack of models as Bachmann are at the apparent lack of market appetite.

 

PS: my knowledge and comment is framed by modelling era of mid-90s onwards.... the situation might be different for different eras.

Agreed, although it's MK1 coaches I'm lacking. If there had been stock, I'd have purchased 25-30 last year alone, and probably half that again on Maroon Thompsons this year, if they were available.

 

I'd also be interested in 3-car 101s, and I'd be happy to pay the latest going rate for them, but they just don't supply them anymore.

 

It's difficult to reconcile Farish's bemoaning the lack of growth in the N gauge market, when there isn't the stock to feed any of that desired growth.  

 

Best


Scott.

Edited by scottystitch
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I've got plenty on my shopping list that's been in the catalogue for several years, even before any new releases. Unfortunately like the Mk2Fs many of the reliveries of locos and rolling stock appear to get pushed further and further back.

 

I suspect Bachmann getting the UK rights to Thomas and expanding the range into N Gauge has something to do with it. Whilst I don't like it I can't blame them as they'll probably sell many more N Gauge Thomas and Percy locos than they ever will a freight grey class 47.

 

Steven B.

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4 minutes ago, D9020 Nimbus said:

Judging by the patchy availability anywhere of the Tomix ones over many years, I rather doubt it. And there will be licensing costs to pay too…

 

Having world wide rights changes things - now the tooling gets paid in a large part by the US market and production run sizes are no longer a problem making the UK market some nice additional profit.

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I can only agree with the above comments. How's the market supposed to expand, I have a shopping list full of already announced models that I'd love to get:

 

RES 47

Virgin 47

Mainline 37 

Blue 31

An Intercity mk2f rake 

NSE class 319

 

And that's before keeping my fingers crossed that a class 90 and class 87 will be announced soon........maybe a wild pipe dream I know, but both seem to sell well in OO.

 

It is a funny old chicken and egg circle isn't it. Ultimately I guess as a business they go for the safe bets, but about half of the list above is not requiring tooling and has already been announced and the other half needed new tooling but I guess this expensive bit has already been done looking at the mk2Fs, 31s and 319s on show, they just aren't in the shops to buy. 

Edited by DavidMcKenzie
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Andy posted this in the Bachmann thread, but it's relevant here too:

 

Quote

For 2020 we have combined our British-outline ranges in a single annual brochure for the first time, making it an ideal reference for our customers and collectors around the world. Over two hundred colour coded pages easily identify the different scales of Graham Farish, Narrow Gauge, Branchline, Scenecraft and other complementary products. 
  
The Combined Volume illustrates ongoing items that are available to purchase from your local retailer, or have been included in previous catalogues for delivery at a future date. It does not include any unseen re-livery or new tooling products. 
  
In response to customer and consumer feedback, we have taken steps to reduce the lead time between the announcement and release of new products. Working with our colleagues at Kader, real progress has been made in the latter half of 2019 to release many of the outstanding items announced several years ago. Last year 13 new tooling projects were released by ourselves, plus more than 200 re-liveried or modified models and a further six Limited Edition models produced exclusively for you as members of the Bachmann Collectors Club. When our non-railway ranges are taken into consideration, it is easy to see how Bachmann releases more than one new item for every day of the year and this volume shall increase as we travel through these next years. 
  
We are ever mindful of the support we receive from our Collectors Club membership, and so starting this February each issue of your Bachmann Times magazine will feature a new product brochure, highlighting completely new items to be released during the following three months. New tooling announcements will no longer be illustrated by black and white photographs of the original prototype, replaced instead by pictures of our actual models. 
  
While we continue to deliver items previously announced, it is anticipated that your first new product brochure will highlight fewer items than those you will receive towards the end of this year. This is quite natural as we reduce the number of outstanding items, clearing the path for an increasing quantity of exciting new models. 
  
To support these quarterly product launches, we’ll be hosting a Trade Showcase event in a different part of the country each quarter and we want to make these events available to you too. As a member of the Bachmann Collectors Club we’ll be giving you an exclusive time and date to join us at each showcase event to see the display of new products up close for yourself, and discuss them with your Bachmann team – look out for full details of these events on the news pages of each Bachmann Times. 
  
Our very best wishes to you, 

David Haarhaus 
Managing Director 

 

Sounds like a sensible move to only show new models when in EP form given the flak Bachmann have taken for the extended time between announcement and release.

 

Tom.  

 

 

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Not sure I want to fork out money for a combined catalogue where about two thirds of the content has no relevance to me whatsoever, I only do N Scale these days and have all but given up OO.

 

Also looks like the Collectors Club seems to be getting all the news etc but I quit the Club as compared with OO, there was little of interest in terms of special models for N Scale. 

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Presumably any announcements made to the club members will be made public shortly afterward. I can't imagine they would want to keep things secret for long in order to encourage pre-orders. In any case, it's bound to appear in the public domain as soon as members start receiving their 'New Product Brochures'. 

 

Tom.  

 

 

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3 hours ago, grahame said:

Apparently, although not confirmed, the new combined one is cheaper than last years Farish only one.

 

 

£7.95 it says on the back.

Got mine in the post today.

I think last years Farish one was £8.95.

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2 hours ago, alan24 said:

£7.95 it says on the back.

Got mine in the post today.

I think last years Farish one was £8.95.

 

 

Just a personal thing, but I could never work out why I had to pay for any type of catalogue when a company was trying to sell their wares to me. 

 

I guess the second hand Fleischmann catalogs on eBay for £40.00 plus are for the collectors market, at least people aren't been asked for that for the current catalogue.

 

Cheers

Dave

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Posted on the N-gauge email group is that EIGHT steam locos have been dropped from the new catalogue-

 

Std 2-6-4T, Jubilee, Royal Scot, Black 5, B1, A1, A2 and Merchant Navy.

 

Seems to be an interpretation of increasing product range I hadn't previously encountered......

 

Les

 

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I was hoping for a fresh run of Sealink coaches but now quite frankly all bets are off, it gives the (probably incorrect) appearance that Bachmann aren't overly bothered with the N scale range anymore.  Fortunately I have found a couple of the old production Sealink Mk1's at a decent price and just bought them.

Edited by John M Upton
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40 minutes ago, Les1952 said:

Posted on the N-gauge email group is that EIGHT steam locos have been dropped from the new catalogue-

 

Std 2-6-4T, Jubilee, Royal Scot, Black 5, B1, A1, A2 and Merchant Navy.

 

Seems to be an interpretation of increasing product range I hadn't previously encountered......

 

Les

 

 

They only list what is 'generally' available in shops; obviously we have been buying to many 4MTs etc.

 

I am not fully up to date with OO etc but I don't think that they had added anything from what was on last year's in any gauge. No wonder it is cheaper it hasn't required to much work!

 

Edited by Bomag
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54 minutes ago, Les1952 said:

Posted on the N-gauge email group is that EIGHT steam locos have been dropped from the new catalogue-

 

Std 2-6-4T, Jubilee, Royal Scot, Black 5, B1, A1, A2 and Merchant Navy.

 

Seems to be an interpretation of increasing product range I hadn't previously encountered......

 

Les

 


The STD 4 2-6-0 is also not included, so 9 types in total. 
 

There haven’t been any new versions of any of those classes announced in the past several years however, so to suggest they have been dropped from this years catalogue is a little unfair. It’s not unheard of for Bachmann to rest certain models and we also know the Merchant Navy hung around on the shelves for a long time after release so it’s not a great surprise they’re not rushing to produce more of those.


What is interesting to note is that 7 out of the 9 types not scheduled for re-release are older tender drive models, leaving the J39 as the only one of that type still available. 
 

Tom. 

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