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2020 predictions?


Mr chapman
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16 minutes ago, grahame said:

 

I think there is genuine concern about steam era sales in N. It's probably not good to pass it off as a myth. The market needs to be convinced and mostly that would be through pre-orders (which haven't exactly been forthcoming) 

Glad I have all the stock I need then as baseboards have been ordered.

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4 minutes ago, woodenhead said:

Glad I have all the stock I need then as baseboards have been ordered.

 

Great, well done. I look forward to seeing your layout’s progess.

 

Will you be starting a thread in the layout section?

 

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17 minutes ago, grahame said:

 

I think there is genuine concern about steam era sales in N. It's probably not good to pass it off as a myth. The market needs to be convinced and mostly that would be through pre-orders (which haven't exactly been forthcoming) especially now that the market has changed in recent years with crowdfunding, commissioning, limited runs, specialist one-off products, etc. Even Dapol required pre-orders before production would go-head for their prototype HST but that, presumably being a D&E era product, easily and quickly reached the required level. 

 

The Sonic 56XX was on the basis of a 'recommendation' from Colin, but Mike (RT - the importers/distributors) told us in the pub before Christmas that pre-orders haven't been fantastic. Although there is no need to pre-order as production is going ahead, my understanding is that it will be cheaper through RT rather than from retailers (of which there wont be many). Another claimed steam era product, the sturgeon wagon, that has made crowdfunding production through sufficient pre-orders only made it because around half of the orders were for the modern 'dutch' livery. With the other steam era projects struggling it does seem manufacturers would need to be very brave.

 

I do hope the Sonic 56XX does sell well. If not it could put in jeopardy further products from them.

 

 

 

 

 

The problem is that 'pre-orders' seam to have become the only measure of success. I currently have about £3,000 of deposits and fully paid 'pre-orders' going back to 2016; however, it is now getting to the point that I am not pre-ordering anything. When it was solely niche models e.g. EMUs it was not to bad but some of the models are moving into the mainstream, areas where the main target is less likely to engage in new models of financing. I know a couple of modellers who would buy a 56xx but they think it is unacceptable to force the use of the internet on them. 

 

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14 minutes ago, Bomag said:

 

The problem is that 'pre-orders' seam to have become the only measure of success. . . . . I know a couple of modellers who would buy a 56xx but they think it is unacceptable to force the use of the internet on them. 

 

 

Yep, it's unfortunate, but that's the way things are these days. Some call it progress. I sympathise but there seems little to be gained from railing against it. However, the real arbiter of success is sales revenue and projects at least covering costs. 

 

There are some projects where you don't need to pay a deposit to pre-order such as the Hattons Bayer Garret (and was the Dapol Prototype HST the same?). And for those who don't 'do' the internet some of the producers can be telephoned to place an order and will accept credit/debit card payment over the phone. 

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30 minutes ago, grahame said:

The Sonic 56XX was on the basis of a 'recommendation' from Colin, but Mike (RT - the importers/distributors) told us in the pub before Christmas that pre-orders haven't been fantastic.


I wonder if that is in part due to the geographic limitations of the prototype? We’ve had most of the more wide ranging types such as the Black 5 and many of the Standards already produced, along with the more flashy, attention grabbing ones like the A1,3,4 etc. 

 

With the exception of the 8F, most of the prototype steam engines remaining are by and large locked to a specific region which probably reduces their commercial viability. A reason I suspect the Hatton’s BG is also apparently struggling for pre orders. If it wasn’t for the fact a preserved example of the 56XX is being produced I’d probably have passed, and as those who remember steam in service become fewer many people’s only exposure to steam will be preserved engines on heritage railways. I have to wonder how sales of preserved numbers compare to the others? 
 

From Sonic‘s view however it probably made sense to start with a loco that has been reasonably high on the wish lists, hasn’t been done in N Gauge before, and doesn’t have complex valve gear but I do wonder if a secondary reason for slow sales is a wait and see position in light of them being a new name on the scene and a post DJM hesitance to put money down until the model is on the shelves. 
 

One also has to wonder why the long awaited Mk.2Fs have been booted from their slot though if modern image is the better seller these days.

 

Tom. 

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1 hour ago, grahame said:

 

I think there is genuine concern about steam era sales in N. It's probably not good to pass it off as a myth. The market needs to be convinced and mostly that would be through pre-orders (which haven't exactly been forthcoming) especially now that the market has changed in recent years with crowdfunding, commissioning, limited runs, specialist one-off products, etc. Even Dapol required pre-orders before production would go-head for their prototype HST but that, presumably being a D&E era product, easily and quickly reached the required level. 

 

The Sonic 56XX was on the basis of a 'recommendation' from Colin, but Mike (RT - the importers/distributors) told us in the pub before Christmas that pre-orders haven't been fantastic. Although there is no need to pre-order as production is going ahead, my understanding is that it will be cheaper through RT rather than from retailers (of which there wont be many). Another claimed steam era product, the sturgeon wagon, that has made crowdfunding production through sufficient pre-orders only made it because around half of the orders were for the modern 'dutch' livery. With the other steam era projects struggling it does seem manufacturers would need to be very brave.

 

I do hope the Sonic 56XX does sell well. If not it could put in jeopardy further products from them.

 

 

 

 

 

Hi Grahame

 

There are a few things in your commentary that just don't add up, and there is absolutely no published validated evidence of any significant move away from (in particular) models from the steam/diesel transition sweet-spot of 1957-66. It is these that still usually sell in largest numbers and soonest, be they steam locos, diesel, or rolling stock. Amongst such models there are inevitably be ones that fail to meet the general trend, for example, the un-rebuilt Merchant Navy, irrespective of livery just didn't hit the spot...period, but then neither did the NSE Class 101 which you can still buy from Kernow for £107 - a whopping 40% discount on RRP and still they are not sold out! 

 

Then, the issue of pre-orders. This alone does not validate the popularity (or otherwise) of any potential model or future project, but what it does do in the crowdfunding world is provide a suitable critical mass to provide confidence and finance to proceed with a given project. The choice of "what" is partly based on people putting forward a case, but also Ben and Mike of RT quite rightly given the work they put in leaning their preferences towards the era and models that they favour, so RT is in itself absolutely no measure of the popularity of steam era models.

 

As regards the Sonic 56xx, quite honestly I am surprised that you would make public information provided informally "in the pub" by Mike in this way if it was, it is surely not what they would have intended or wished, as it is not their model, they are providing a sales platform Third Party who was not present, I would have thought this crossed the like into "commercially sensitive" territory and you may want to consider editing your post. 

 

Again the Sturgeon, you present as "fact" that half the production run was not earlier models but "Dutch". Nothing of the kind has ever been said elsewhere and typically Ben and Mike are quite open about models/liveries that are struggling. I find this unlikely for a number of reasons and you may care to to check/validate your comments with some hard facts, but consider: - 

 

1) It was the Dutch DJM Mermaids that could not be sold for love nor money until DJM went under and they became a finite volume, probably in perpetuity and were bought regardless to repaint etc.

2) If you use the example of the NGS RTR models, the QM Brake Van is still in stock in Dutch and EWS to the tune of 150 plus long after others have sold out.

3) Only one set of Sturgeon pictures put up by buyers has so far shown Dutch ones, almost all pics have been of the earliest incarnations - black ones, with or without doors. Anecdotal yes, but surely given the alleged demographic and tech savvy nature of the (we are told) typical modeller of the Sectorisation era you would expect more pictures if that is indeed the case. I would suggest you re-check with Ben and Mike in case you have misunderstood.

 

Where I do agree is that to make any scale viable you need to balance models across all epochs, one will not flourish so well in isolation without the rest being provided for. From everything I have learned, in particular talking to my friendly retailers whose livelihoods depend on getting right what they stock, it is the Transition era where the Critical Mass is, followed by BR blue, with something like NSE and associated UK passenger/freight sectors "sticking" - they would never have the potential sales volumes to be viable as an era on its own.

 

Regards

 

Roy

 

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1 hour ago, TomE said:


I wonder if that is in part due to the geographic limitations of the prototype? We’ve had most of the more wide ranging types such as the Black 5 and many of the Standards already produced, along with the more flashy, attention grabbing ones like the A1,3,4 etc. 

 

 

Sometimes I wonder if we are looking for excuses or reasons for failure like geographic limitation, short lived, niche, etc., Often those things apply, at least to sone extent, to all potential models regardless of genre. And most of the most popular ones that they don't apply to have been picked off regardless of being steam, diesel or electric.

 

People say the Hatton's BG is niche, but so too is Dapol's prototype HST; they say some proposed products have limited geographic use, but so too could it be claimed of the Pendolino and class 92 but they are in production. 

 

It seems to me that enthusiasts are not actually supporting proposed products sufficiently in the way producers want (in placing pre-orders to confirm product choice, volumes and reduce risk). Perhaps we are being too picky now in a smallish market and expecting ever increasing choice (despite the range being larger than ever before showing that the N gauge market can support diversity). I think that perhaps there is more with regards to market concerns and confidence in N gauge.

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6 minutes ago, Roy L S said:

 

3) Only one set of Sturgeon pictures put up by buyers has so far shown Dutch ones, almost all pics have been of the earliest incarnations - black ones, with or without doors. Anecdotal yes, but surely given the alleged demographic and tech savvy nature of the (we are told) typical modeller of the Sectorisation era you would expect more pictures if that is indeed the case. I would suggest you re-check with Ben and Mike in case you have misunderstood.

 

 

 

 

No. I didn't misunderstand. Mike looked up and totted up the figures in front of several of us and said that the 'dutch' sturgeons accounted for around 50% of all the orders. But then it wasn't the first time I'd heard that. So no need for me to recheck.

 

But I don't recall you providing empirical evidence to support your claims that "models from the steam/diesel transition sweet-spot of 1957-66. . . .  It is these that still usually sell in largest numbers and soonest". When I was with Bachmann they said to me that in N gauge it is colourful models that sell best and they were mostly pre-grouping and modern era liveries.

 

 

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2 hours ago, grahame said:

 

When I was with Bachmann they said to me that in N gauge it is colourful models that sell best and they were mostly pre-grouping and modern era liveries.

 

 

 

I hope for many "Colourful" ex. LNER Locos in the future...

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9 hours ago, Roy L S said:

 

Again the Sturgeon, you present as "fact" that half the production run was not earlier models but "Dutch". Nothing of the kind has ever been said elsewhere and typically Ben and Mike are quite open about models/liveries that are struggling. I find this unlikely for a number of reasons and you may care to to check/validate your comments with some hard facts, but consider: - 

 

1) It was the Dutch DJM Mermaids that could not be sold for love nor money until DJM went under and they became a finite volume, probably in perpetuity and were bought regardless to repaint etc.

2) If you use the example of the NGS RTR models, the QM Brake Van is still in stock in Dutch and EWS to the tune of 150 plus long after others have sold out.

3) Only one set of Sturgeon pictures put up by buyers has so far shown Dutch ones, almost all pics have been of the earliest incarnations - black ones, with or without doors. Anecdotal yes, but surely given the alleged demographic and tech savvy nature of the (we are told) typical modeller of the Sectorisation era you would expect more pictures if that is indeed the case. I would suggest you re-check with Ben and Mike in case you have misunderstood.

 

 

Given Grahame's previous role in the hobby before his aversion to CGR large suburban tanks (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GCR_Class_9N ) over streaks I would suggest that the quote about sturgeons is accurate.

 

Turing to your points, I never found Dutch mermaids with any sort of discount which would indicate a total glut, conversely somebody claimed to have re-livered about 40 black ones to weathered dutch livery. QM departmental liveries are a niche of a niche; I have an Olive and CE one but as with many I cannot justify more than one or two for a none SR setting. Turning to Sturgeons, as they have not invoiced for the remaining money for the Dutch ones it its likely they have not sent many out. 

 

As for the NSE 101 Kernow have two left; looking at other 2 car DMUs  its not much different to two car DMUs from other eras.

 

 

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11 hours ago, Roy L S said:

There are a few things in your commentary that just don't add up, and there is absolutely no published validated evidence of any significant move away from (in particular) models from the steam/diesel transition sweet-spot of 1957-66.

 

While I don't think steam will ever disappear, and will remain reasonably popular (both the equipment and the era have benefits that will continue to attract reasonable numbers of modellers), I suspect the "sweet spot" is no longer 1957-66 and the reasoning is simple math.

 

It is frequently stated that the most popular choice for era is our teenage years, and so if we take for simple math 20 as the upper end of being influential, and 1965, we get the calculation that the main audience for that era is now (or at least a week from now) 75 years old at the youngest.  It is likely a safe argument that they are past their prime buying years having now accumulated most of what they want/need.

 

On that basis the "sweet spot" is now likely the late 70s and getting into the early 80s.

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13 hours ago, woodenhead said:

I think perhaps we are creating a myth now that if it didn't sell under DJM then it wouldn't sell at all - perhaps the DJM issue was it was DJM and his baggage not the models themselves.

 

You are correct, there is a danger in assuming the DJM experience applies to the broader market.

 

But equally there is a danger of then going to the opposite extreme and assuming nothing from the DJM saga applies.

 

What can be said is that N models struggled under DJM while he was able to get some OO models produced, and the N King struggled badly long before the DJM baggage became apparent.

 

13 hours ago, woodenhead said:

There is a place for N gauge steam, Sonix are brave enough to try it with the 56xx, I expect if Dapol announce a Large Prairie, a Mogul or a revamped small Prairie they would sell.

 

And Sonix could just as easily lose a lot of money with the 56xx - just because someone is willing to pay to tool a model doesn't mean that there is a market, particularly when the person making the decision is in China.

 

13 hours ago, woodenhead said:

But if no-one does and the new market becomes limited to the Pendolino era then really where will N go from there - not everyone wants to model an electrified mainline.

 

Well, there is still a lot of diesel stuff around, and even more in the 1970s where the bubble like is now.

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4 hours ago, mdvle said:

 

While I don't think steam will ever disappear, and will remain reasonably popular (both the equipment and the era have benefits that will continue to attract reasonable numbers of modellers), I suspect the "sweet spot" is no longer 1957-66 and the reasoning is simple math.

 

It is frequently stated that the most popular choice for era is our teenage years, and so if we take for simple math 20 as the upper end of being influential, and 1965, we get the calculation that the main audience for that era is now (or at least a week from now) 75 years old at the youngest.  It is likely a safe argument that they are past their prime buying years having now accumulated most of what they want/need.

 

On that basis the "sweet spot" is now likely the late 70s and getting into the early 80s.

 

Hi mdvale

 

The information I have had is from the "coal face" - retailers I have spoken to. Maybe it would be useful if the NGS could again run a questionnaire (actively not passively as I know the question is asked in membership renewals etc) for all members, then the issue be put to bed for a time at least.

 

As to people modelling what they remember, there may be an element of that but I don't think it is anything like that simple. I model transition, but barely remember steam, for me first recollections are green trains and quickly after that a patchwork quilt of green and blue DMUs as coaches got repainted. Were I to model what I saw in my teens it would have been BR blue post-1975 but I do not (and amongst modelling friends I know I am far from alone in that - most model transition). No, the significance of transition is much more about the use of essentially old infrastructure, goods yards still in use with wagonload freight for general merchandise and domestic coal still there in significant volumes and railways not yet suffering the post-1966 decline with rationalisation of facilities and run-down. It also allows the totally prototypical opportunity to run steam and diesel (and indeed electrics) together on the same layout in general service, no other era provides the same.

 

I personally doubt the "sweet spot" is, or will ever really be the 70's early 80's if it does change (as it doubtless will in time), I was there, and even as a truly nailed on railway enthusiast at the time, things were depressingly run down and unexciting.

 

To be clear, I am not saying that Transition will not diminish in popularity over time, I have no idea what the position will be in 10 or 20 years time, but for now, I think the advent of tech such as DCC sound in steam and diesel locos has maintained popularity in the era (otherwise why would Farish be re-working locos like the 5MT and N Class for sound?).

 

However, irrespective of the above, reflecting on this later last night, where I do think Grahame is spot on, is that without a viable range covering all major epochs, a more fragmented British N gauge offer will struggle, so best to try to encourage all rather than talk one up to the detriment of another probably?

 

Roy 

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6 hours ago, Bomag said:

 

Given Grahame's previous role in the hobby before his aversion to CGR large suburban tanks (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GCR_Class_9N ) over streaks I would suggest that the quote about sturgeons is accurate.

 

Turing to your points, I never found Dutch mermaids with any sort of discount which would indicate a total glut, conversely somebody claimed to have re-livered about 40 black ones to weathered dutch livery. QM departmental liveries are a niche of a niche; I have an Olive and CE one but as with many I cannot justify more than one or two for a none SR setting. Turning to Sturgeons, as they have not invoiced for the remaining money for the Dutch ones it its likely they have not sent many out. 

 

As for the NSE 101 Kernow have two left; looking at other 2 car DMUs  its not much different to two car DMUs from other eras.

 

 

 

Hi Bomag

 

I recall it was Dave Jones who told me that people had badgered him to do Dutch mermaids, and when he did they didn't buy them. There was never a "glut" he only made circa 1000 total, 250 in each of four running numbers and even still they could still be found easily right up to the time when DJM folded. After that, for obvious reasons the remainder were hoovered up because as I said, they became a finite number with no realistic prospect of more. From what I have seen, you are correct there was no significant extra discount below about £18 anywhere, but that could simply be about margin.

 

With regard to 101s, if you can find me a brand new green one for £107 then please point me at it. I doubt you will for two reasons, firstly they sold through very quickly, secondly such was the demand there was no need to discount them to the same extent as these NSE models which I have been eyeing for a possible repaint so know have been available for some time.

 

Best wishes

 

Roy

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The problem is that if there is not enough supply people just walk away from n gauge making  the market even smaller. 

 

Try starting a BR era blue Easr Coast main line layout.c 1981. How would you stock it?

 

It is sad because the stock Farish do produce is absolutely outstanding. 

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5 hours ago, Roy L S said:

 

Hi Bomag

 

I recall it was Dave Jones who told me that people had badgered him to do Dutch mermaids, and when he did they didn't buy them. There was never a "glut" he only made circa 1000 total, 250 in each of four running numbers and even still they could still be found easily right up to the time when DJM folded. After that, for obvious reasons the remainder were hoovered up because as I said, they became a finite number with no realistic prospect of more. From what I have seen, you are correct there was no significant extra discount below about £18 anywhere, but that could simply be about margin.

 

With regard to 101s, if you can find me a brand new green one for £107 then please point me at it. I doubt you will for two reasons, firstly they sold through very quickly, secondly such was the demand there was no need to discount them to the same extent as these NSE models which I have been eyeing for a possible repaint so know have been available for some time.

 

Best wishes

 

Roy

 

DJ was publicly reluctant to do Dutch, which resulted in at least one case (as mentioned) in modellers not taking a chance and repainting black ones.  Lesson one is if you are doing a Farish and holding back liveries don't say you are not doing them. As I seem to have about 2% of all Dutch mermaids I spent some time searching for reduced price mermaids, the availability was always limited in terms of shops and although those that did had a few hanging around for some time they were not obviously discounted. Perhaps DJM expectations were a bit high for a second run given obvious case flow issues.

 

In terms of your comments about shop owners you have talked to, if you had talked to the ones round me you would have got the impressions that GW models are much less popular than LMS/LNER. I don't make the mistake of extrapolating information that is valid for a sub-set and assume that it valid for everything.  Similarly the fact that one retailer has a couple of NSE 101s at the same price as ten provincial 150/2 is a reflection of when they came out. If you make 1000 models and 1050 want them then they will quickly sell, if only 950 want them then the remaining 50 will take some time to sell to price sensitive buyers. It does not mean that the second model is unpopular or the first one represents the bulk of the market.

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4 hours ago, Bomag said:

 

DJ was publicly reluctant to do Dutch, which resulted in at least one case (as mentioned) in modellers not taking a chance and repainting black ones.  Lesson one is if you are doing a Farish and holding back liveries don't say you are not doing them. As I seem to have about 2% of all Dutch mermaids I spent some time searching for reduced price mermaids, the availability was always limited in terms of shops and although those that did had a few hanging around for some time they were not obviously discounted. Perhaps DJM expectations were a bit high for a second run given obvious case flow issues.

 

In terms of your comments about shop owners you have talked to, if you had talked to the ones round me you would have got the impressions that GW models are much less popular than LMS/LNER. I don't make the mistake of extrapolating information that is valid for a sub-set and assume that it valid for everything.  Similarly the fact that one retailer has a couple of NSE 101s at the same price as ten provincial 150/2 is a reflection of when they came out. If you make 1000 models and 1050 want them then they will quickly sell, if only 950 want them then the remaining 50 will take some time to sell to price sensitive buyers. It does not mean that the second model is unpopular or the first one represents the bulk of the market.

 

 

So are you saying the demand for Dutch was satisfied by people buying the black ones and repainting, just because one person did? If so that statement appears most unlikely. I would suggest that most people actually bought the black ones because that is what they wanted and they sold very quickly. In point of fact based on DJ's disappointment regarding poor sales of Dutch, his reluctance certainly appeared justified, a vociferous minority saying there was a big demand when actual sales demonstrated  that clearly it was not so big possibly?

 

As far as I am aware Dave at no stage said he wasn't doing Dutch Mermaids, just that black would be done first, and it was equally clear that had the cashflow generated allowed, Olive and Indian Red would have followed the Dutch ones so there should have been no surprises. It is an absolute fact (and I know this from first hand experience of looking with a view to repaints) that you could quite easily find Dutch ones right up to DJM's demise and for a short while after, and as to your comment on discounting, no, they weren't below about £18 typically possibly about margins and not wanting to lose money? That you have 20 such models of a production run of 1000 demonstrates what exactly? That number is insignificant..

 

Your second paragraph seems confused. I was not talking about regions, the subject of this discussion has been about eras, and these are relevant to an entire country, so your comparison of shops to regions, while quite possibly correct in it's own context and worthy of discussion, has no relevance to this subject that I can see.

 

Similarly your last point seems poorly argued, in any retail environment supply and demand will dictate that a product in big demand will sell through quickly and at or close to full price and outstrip supply, this  pretty much always happens with popular liveries in any scale. In the example of a 101 DMU, for a green one there is still demand, but no product, even secondhand they demand top dollar, yet if I want an NSE one I can have it brand new for a 40% discount - you don't give up that much of your margin if there is demand - why would you? 

 

Regards

 

Roy

Edited by Roy L S
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On 27/12/2019 at 15:02, Bomag said:

 I know a couple of modellers who would buy a 56xx but they think it is unacceptable to force the use of the internet on them. 

 


This needs some clarification, no one is forcing the internet on anyone. That would be self-defeating both for the retailer and customer but from the retailer’s perspective we’re offering the only option we can. We both work full time and so having retail premises or taking orders over the phone is not possible. We do stock retailers for anyone who prefers to buy in person/by phone/wait till they see a model etc. Though we haven’t finalised the retail details for the 56xx. 
 

Having said which how many people really can’t access the internet now? An increasingly small number and there is always the option of asking friends/family/local library. Part of the point of the internet is not about forcing anyone to do anything using it but to allow people to come together and get something that otherwise wouldn’t happen or would cost substantially more. 
 

cheers Mike

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On the issue of transition era sales, we have both our sales data (which is interesting for some of the long lived models like the sturgeons) and from speaking to retailers. On the Sturgeons we sold what we expected/needed to make the project work but there is no escaping that a shade under 50% of our sales were the two most modern liveries ie Dutch and yellow. 
 

On the 56xx, it is fair to say that sales have not been fantastic which is a pity as I think it is the best N gauge steam engine I’ve seen, certainly in terms of tank engines. It has continued to sell well and setting deadlines (to come very soon) for discounted pre-orders and retail options will help. 
 

cheers Mike

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33 minutes ago, red death said:

Having said which how many people really can’t access the internet now? An increasingly small number and there is always the option of asking friends/family/local library.

cheers Mike

There are some extremely vulnerable people who have difficulty accessing the internet so it is wrong to suggest it's not an issue, and one that the government in it's drive to put everything online seems to be ignoring.

 

However, here in the land of model trains where the inhabitants tend to have disposable income it should not be an issue to purchase trains online.

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