2020 predictions?

[Roy L S]

44 minutes ago, Davexoc said:

 

I think they both meant class 14, but the rising red mist must have blurred their keyboards.....

 

Hi Dave

 

You are right (probably on both counts in my case regrettably) I certainly meant Class 14 "Teddy Bear".

 

Best Wishes

 

Roy

[woodenhead]

I still reckon it will be the peak that is next in line for an upgrade, why?

• Not available in any guise
• chassis had no plug and play for chips
• it's big brother in OO is getting a new front end

The 37s are dcc chip compatible so only the sound element needs adding, the Peak needs a new chassis so why not.

[gc4946]

I'm getting the impression there'll be few newly-tooled items announced in 2020. 

However they'll upgrade several locos and units to be "sound ready"

 

For newly-tooled locos, my predictions are a 94XX pannier to celebrate the 50th anniversary of the first loco made by Graham Farish in 1970 and a class 25/2 or 25/3. 

I predict the only newly-tooled item of rolling stock will be the Freightliner FFA/FGA flats.

 

Farish will upgrade the Jubilee and Scot to be "sound ready" with new loco-drive chassis. The 37, 101 and 150 will also receive the same treatment.

 

The birdcage set will appear in malachite.

Mk2fs will appear in (contemporary) ScotRail and DRS liveries.

150/1 to appear in original Centro livery, 150/2 in Merseytravel livery.

 

 

 

 

 

[Kris]

10 minutes ago, woodenhead said:

I still reckon it will be the peak that is next in line for an upgrade, why?

• Not available in any guise
• chassis had no plug and play for chips
• it's big brother in OO is getting a new front end

The 37s are dcc chip compatible so only the sound element needs adding, the Peak needs a new chassis so why not.

There is precedent for a loco which is DCC compatible but not for sound being upgraded (the N class, the M5 alongside the 101 and 150), so the 37 is possible before the Peak.

[mdvle]

2 hours ago, Paddy said:

I wonder by how much any British model railway market is growing?  Could it simply be an overall cake which is shrinking slowly but where it is divided differently.

 

Depends on how you define the market I suspect.

 

If you include the "under the Christmas Tree toy trains" then yes the market has shrunk, those sales taken away by video games, electronic devices, etc.

 

But, really only a small percentage of those kids remained in the hobby past childhood and there is plenty of evidence that those people who are inclined to participate in this hobby manage to enter the hobby one way or another.

 

So on the basis of the part of the hobby that view it as more a lifetime thing, the market is at worse stable and more likely growing.  In OO for example, there are around 20 to 30 new tooled items per year for about the last 2 years and you wouldn't be seeing that type of commitment and activity in a shrinking market.

 

2 hours ago, Paddy said:

Is the O gauge bubble funded by modellers moving from other scales?

 

Is it really a bubble?  I mean Heljan have been doing RTR O for over 10 years now...

 

2 hours ago, Paddy said:

Logic would have suggested that by now with homes getting ever smaller that N gauge would be growing in popularity - this does not seem to be the case.  As to why?  I am baffled.

 

Part of it that the market is also changing - at least amongst prototypical modellers there seems to be a shift away from large layouts with lots of track to more accurate layouts, a move to prototypical operation (which benefits the small shunting layouts), and what appears to maybe in OO an increase in interest in pre-grouping with the often resulting small stock and trains.  So this all seems to (at least partially) offset the smaller homes.

 

But also consider that, as it always has been, the prime modelling age is 50+ - when the kids are gone and more time and money is available - and that age group might not yet reflect the smaller homes.  Thus N might need another 5 years or so for it's advantage to really kick in.

 

2 hours ago, Paddy said:

As for British steam locomotives, each release seems to come with tails of poor quality, bad running, non prototypical haulage etc.  May be the fact is, that to produce high quality (appearance, fidelity, all wheel drive, DCC, sound etc.) the prices need to be significantly higher?  Would there be a market though for a £300 N gauge steam locomotive to this standard?

 

Can't provide a guess, but consider what people in other countries pay.

 

In the US Broadway Limited offers a 2-8-2 with DCC/Sound (they don't sell without) for $330 - add VAT and convert and you get about £300

 

2 hours ago, Paddy said:

I love N gauge and we all need to work together to ensure it’s long term viability.  However, I fear no one is going to get rich from selling N gauge models.

 

In general no one gets rich selling model trains regardless of scale.

[mdvle]

5 hours ago, Bomag said:

 

While there is the option of getting a distributor to help with getting stuff to shops, as with many smaller brands, I was not implying that small manufactures need to get models into every shop. Getting models into the larger shops who do mail order and advertise in the modelling press will likely cover most of the potential market who do not want to use the internet.      

 

Except Phil's point still stands - regardless of whether you put your product in 1 store, 10 stores, half the stores, or all of them you are adding something (the store) that needs a cut of the price.  That inherently means the manufacturer gets less.

 

A distributor would just make things worse, as that would mean 2 entities requiring a cut of the price.

 

So given that you need to sell a lot more models to make up for that reduced profit, will that additional 10% be sufficient?  Unlikely.

[DavidMcKenzie]

hoping for a class 90, but not sure if that's realistic.

 

So if not then at least keeping the fingers crossed for a new livery or two to be announced. Too early for a second run at the class 31 in engineers or regional to be announced? considering the time between announcement and getting to market then why not, in three or four years the class 31s that are expected soon will be off the shelves and wallets will have recovered ready for a second model.

 

There must still be some liveries from the they haven't done yet with the class 47 and 37s yet as well. Less exciting than a new 90 of course, but ultimately a (lazy?and) less risky way to make ends meet? 

 

All the best

Dave

Edited December 30, 2019 by DavidMcKenzie

[Pmorgancym]

I think a 94xx is a good shout.

 

I think the rise of O gauge is down to the preception on value, put an O 0-6-0 (steam or diesel) against the same for n and OO and your looking at 60- 80 quid for the n gauge one, 100-120 for OO, around 200 from the O model which looks better bangs for buck value?

[D9020 Nimbus]

Interestingly, in the October 2019 issue of Model Railroader said that he believed that N gauge was the only growth area in the (US) market. I don't see much of a future for Bachmann in any scale—they seem to be heading in the direction of ultra-expensive, ultra-complex models (the OO crane is a good example), producing small numbers of products with (presumably)  relatively large per-item profits (if the profits aren't relatively large, then they're in even more trouble).

The problem with narrow-gauge is the limited number of viable prototypes—two of which have now been claimed by Peco/Kato. Notice the number of fictional liveries produced already...

I don't see much future for N gauge in Britain until Kato get an established range. They would seem likely to concentrate on the diesel era (although they have done some steam for both US and Japanese prototype) so what will Bachmann have left?

[jpendle]

25 minutes ago, D9020 Nimbus said:

I don't see much future for N gauge in Britain until Kato get an established range. They would seem likely to concentrate on the diesel era (although they have done some steam for both US and Japanese prototype) so what will Bachmann have left?

I think that's a bit apocalyptic!

 

I wonder if Farish are struggling to think of what to do next. They clearly have production constraints (competing against other parts of the Kader empire for production slots) and probably are required (by Kader) to make relatively high margins.

 

Even stuff that would appear to the untrained eye to be relatively simple, like re-releasing models that have sold out, either with different running numbers, or new liveries seems to take forever. Just to illustrate this point, I can only have 1 Evening Star or Biffa 66 on my layout, but I could have any number of 'bog standard' EWS/DBC, Freightliner, GBRF, & DRS 66's.

 

Also anything that could be considered a 'no brainer' has already been done, and all that's left are either 'risky' (anything using OHLE) or 'niche', i.e a one off, very modern class of MU's, or a Pre-Grouping loco or carriages.

 

I also think Farish might be waiting to see how well Kato's entry to the market will go, let's face it there are enough models in the pipeline to keep Farish busy for a year or two, and Kato may shake up the market in a big way, or they may bail, if their CL800s, et al, don't sell well.

 

I'm looking forward to some 802's in TPE livery, but won't be best pleased if Kato refuse to include a suitable DCC socket (as they apparently are threatening).

 

Regards,

 

John P

[Kris]

Kato's reentry to British N is a red herring I feel. I suspect that the class 800's will be a one off following in the steps of the Eurostar. This would follow in the normal steps of Kato picking iconic high speed trains for markets outside of Japan and the US.  

[acourtrail]

My prediction for the 2020 Farish Range is :-

 

No completely new toolings - but more of the existing loco range upgraded to chassis with speakers - plus a few new liveries and some more batches of existing liveries with new numbers.

 

Although partly a wish of mine - an extension of the range of Bulleid coaches could be viable (if not in 2020, then maybe fairly soon).  While there are already some Bulleid coaches (4 variants, post 1949 with 15'' ventilators BTso, CK, TK, TO) in the Farish range, there is a bigger selection of Bulleids in the OO range (we already know that the following are planned, Post 1949 BTso, CK, TK (but no TO like there is in N), plus four pre 1949 with 10'' ventilators BCK, BTso, CK, TK).

[Paddy]

Wooden or smooth sided pre-MK1 Pullman cars would seem a reasonable option.  They cover a wide geographic area and multiple eras.  As they tend of to be attractive they also tick the Rule 1 box.  Don’t go mad with things like working table lamps to keep the cost reasonable.

 

Kind regards
 

Paddy

 

[Paddy]

It would also be nice is PECO releases a 2nd radius Settrack point or Farish do it and make it compatible.

 

Many thanks

 

Paddy

[Paddy]

Reintroduce the a range of buildings based on the original Scenecraft kits.  Whilst not as detailed as their resin replacements they work well enough in N gauge.  Hopefully, they could come in at a much lower price point and be a fun element as they are easy to make.

 

Kind regards 

 

Paddy

 

[Kaput]

Correct me if I'm wrong but none of the 2019 upgraded chassis with speakers announcements have actually released yet have they?

[Davexoc]

4 hours ago, D9020 Nimbus said:

Interestingly, in the October 2019 issue of Model Railroader said that he believed that N gauge was the only growth area in the (US) market. I don't see much of a future for Bachmann in any scale—they seem to be heading in the direction of ultra-expensive, ultra-complex models (the OO crane is a good example), producing small numbers of products with (presumably)  relatively large per-item profits (if the profits aren't relatively large, then they're in even more trouble).

The problem with narrow-gauge is the limited number of viable prototypes—two of which have now been claimed by Peco/Kato. Notice the number of fictional liveries produced already...

I don't see much future for N gauge in Britain until Kato get an established range. They would seem likely to concentrate on the diesel era (although they have done some steam for both US and Japanese prototype) so what will Bachmann have left?

 

Well I take it your glass is half empty, mine on the other hand is half full.

 

With regards to the breakdown crane, was it not near the top of the wish lists annualy?

Marvellous bit of engineering, and if you don't like the price and complexity, there is always the Hornby version.

There are basically two tiers in OO, and Bachmann now lean more towards the upper one, and with N being smaller in both size and market, it is getting more finesse too, but at a price.

I'm sure N has a future in Britiain with or without Kato, as the Farish range is supported by Dapol, Sonic, Revolution, Peco, Accurascale/Realtrack, etc.

 

Anyway, I'll predict the 94xx and Peaks for 2020, possibly a Crab too.....

And I'm not too fussed by how long they take, I've still not got track down yet!

[mdvle]

6 hours ago, Pmorgancym said:

I think the rise of O gauge is down to the preception on value, put an O 0-6-0 (steam or diesel) against the same for n and OO and your looking at 60- 80 quid for the n gauge one, 100-120 for OO, around 200 from the O model which looks better bangs for buck value?

 

Except that Heljan, who have been very successful in O, charge around £700 or more for their locos, and given their dominance in O locos you will end up paying their prices unless you are satisfied with a small selection from Dapol or others.

 

6 hours ago, D9020 Nimbus said:

Interestingly, in the October 2019 issue of Model Railroader said that he believed that N gauge was the only growth area in the (US) market.

 

Actually, that is not what the editor of MR said.

 

His personal opinion, as given in his editorial, was:

 

Quote

I think if the hobby is experiencing growth anywhere, it's in N scale.  Younger people coming into the hobby are embracing the smaller scale for its economy and footprint.  That's the way I see it.

 

Note 2 points:

1. the proverbial "if" as the 3rd word - in other words, he is like the doomsayers online (and in the pages of his very magazine for the last 60+ years) who fail to see that the hobby is changing, and that because of a pet issue (whether it be retailers closing, magazines struggling(*), the move to RTR, the move to plastic kits, etc, etc.) they come to the false conclusion that the hobby must be dying.  It's not, and interviews with the various manufacturers (and often the quality hobby shops that not only remain but are thriving) all indicate that they hobby in the US is very healthy and likely growing.
2. the fallacy of MR - that the only way to participate in this hobby is the basement empire.  Thus if people don't have basements, then they must be moving to N scale because the people running MR just can't comprehend that everyone is the hobby doesn't have a basement empire.

* - can't recall the figures, but discussions have indicated that MR has seen it's subscriber numbers fall significantly over the last 2 decades, to where they are somewhere between 10 to 25% of what they were in the 90s - given that anyone working for that magazine are going to place some/much/all of that on a shrinking hobby rather than the reality that today's hobbyists are communicating online instead of by reading a magazine.  Kalmbach is well known for not understanding the Internet and trying to pretend it doesn't exist.

 

6 hours ago, D9020 Nimbus said:

I don't see much of a future for Bachmann in any scale—they seem to be heading in the direction of ultra-expensive, ultra-complex models (the OO crane is a good example), producing small numbers of products with (presumably)  relatively large per-item profits (if the profits aren't relatively large, then they're in even more trouble).

 

Bachmann are following the market - much of the money in the hobby wants more detailed models (and are willing to pay for it).  There would be more concern for Bachmann if they weren't following this trend.

 

6 hours ago, D9020 Nimbus said:

The problem with narrow-gauge is the limited number of viable prototypes—two of which have now been claimed by Peco/Kato. Notice the number of fictional liveries produced already...

 

Also Model Rail has announced the Vale of Rheidol 2-6-2T

 

But it's not necessarily a problem - what matters more than being able to (expensively) tool another item is if there is sufficient demand for additional runs of product in subsequent years.  And additional manufacturers if anything will likely bring more people into OO9, thus increasing demand for existing Bachmann OO9 stuff.

 

An example of this can be seen in the US, where Blackstone Models have successfully for 16 years now existed on Colorado narrow gauge which like UK OO9 has a very limited number of prototypes.

 

6 hours ago, D9020 Nimbus said:

I don't see much future for N gauge in Britain until Kato get an established range. They would seem likely to concentrate on the diesel era (although they have done some steam for both US and Japanese prototype) so what will Bachmann have left?

 

There is no real indication that Kato is going to invest in a line of UK models, just as there is no indication that they won't.

 

More importantly, the future of the British N market is not dependent on being saved by Kato, or the continuing dominance of Farish.  If there is a market for product then someone will step up to produce it, whether it be a retailer, magazine, existing company or somebody new entering the market.  It has never been easier to get a model made thanks to China, it really just requires (an admittedly significant amount of) money and a desire to do it.

[Mr chapman]

What's the betting on a fully lined out C class as a collectors club special... 

Or a repeat of the 00 cc model in battle ship grey? 

[John M Upton]

The Collectors Club getting a loco in N scale?  Very unlikely sadly, all we get is the occasional obscure wagon or weird coach if we are lucky whilst OO scale members get all the swanky stuff...

[Mr chapman]

33 minutes ago, John M Upton said:

The Collectors Club getting a loco in N scale?  Very unlikely sadly, all we get is the occasional obscure wagon or weird coach if we are lucky whilst OO scale members get all the swanky stuff...

We had the SDJR 4f, an intercity 08 and LMR 08. I can't think of another off the top of my head in the last couple of years. 

[Andy Hayter]

45 minutes ago, John M Upton said:

The Collectors Club getting a loco in N scale?  Very unlikely sadly, all we get is the occasional obscure wagon or weird coach if we are lucky whilst OO scale members get all the swanky stuff...

 

Which is fine if you are a 00 modeller who wants swanky diesel stuff or even BR steam.

[Adam1701D]

Electrostar and 4-CIG? (Ducks for cover)

[scottystitch]

On 31/12/2019 at 17:20, Mr chapman said:

We had the SDJR 4f, an intercity 08 and LMR 08. I can't think of another off the top of my head in the last couple of years. 

 

The Fairburn in "Caledonian Blue"?

[Mr chapman]

4 hours ago, scottystitch said:

 

The Fairburn in "Caledonian Blue"?

Thought I missed one. Some odd choices... But Bachmann can't really claim the fully lined C class can't be done. Dapol lined out a terrier! But they tend to be repeated versions of 00 models so if anything I would expect the grey one