Hornby 2020 range announcements

[Dunsignalling]

43 minutes ago, Legend said:

Wish I knew what was going on here. There’s the Rails /Hornby fall out and now Hattons seems to be having issues with pre orders . The thing is that this is not the first time . Remember the Rocket where Hattons had to tell people they weren’t getting their pre orders , that they didn’t get the allocation they wanted .  The thing is it undermines people’s confidence in pre ordering goods . It seems there’s no certainty pre ordering with Hattons means you will get your model. Not good .  Also the initial email saying models were not being produced leaves a bad taste , as clearly they were and it’s that Hattons oversold it’s allocation.  

Oversold their allocation or sold what they believed to be their allocation but which was subsequently reduced by Hornby?

 

It doesn't seem 100% clear which is the case, though the effect for the intended customer is the same.

 

John

Edited October 22, 2020 by Dunsignalling

[Craig1989]

I’m still waiting for my nr and drs coach’s from ttc and both times they said they were waiting for a delivery from Hornby 

[truffy]

12 hours ago, phil-b259 said:

 

No - but how else does a retailer decide who gets a model and who misses out?

 

'First come, First served' is a sound principle - and if you pre-order soon after the model is announced you end up towards the front of the queue and thus stand a grater chance of obtaining the model should their be a shortage.

 

 

That still doesn’t help the customer if they don’t know where they are in the queue. Quietly thinking they’re good. Either way it’s a crap shoot, and it looks good on neither the retailer nor Hornby. Primarily the latter. 

[Ian Hargrave]

17 hours ago, Legend said:

Wish I knew what was going on here. There’s the Rails /Hornby fall out and now Hattons seems to be having issues with pre orders . The thing is that this is not the first time . Remember the Rocket where Hattons had to tell people they weren’t getting their pre orders , that they didn’t get the allocation they wanted .   It undermines people’s confidence in pre ordering goods . It seems there’s no certainty pre ordering with Hattons means you will get your model. Not good .  Also the initial email saying models were not being produced leaves a bad taste , as clearly they were and it’s that Hattons oversold it’s allocation.  

 
Nothing under the sun is new.Neither is this situation.Over ordering/ under fulfilling has been  phenomenon for the past decade.Hattons modus operandi in dealing with it used ( maybe still is ? ) to be/ to claim that it was “no longer available “ etc. We have to live with it .Cynical ? Moi ?

 

 

[Ian Hargrave]

4 hours ago, truffy said:

That still doesn’t help the customer if they don’t know where they are in the queue. Quietly thinking they’re good. Either way it’s a crap shoot, and it looks good on neither the retailer nor Hornby. Primarily the latter. 

 
On balance I’d apportion 50%/50% in the blame game.

 

[CUCKOO LINE]

We seem to go through a cycle of showdowns with Box Shifters. I seem to recall a certain outfit in Watford 20-25 years ago or so who then eventually disappeared from the scene. But it doesmn't really leave a good impression with the buyers who lose confidence and get fed up, I guess sales can eventually be lost or we end up with dumping sometime down the line.

[woodenhead]

The question is whether any people who order direct from Hornby suffer the same issues or is it simply that Hornby prioritise orders via their own website and everyone else gets what is left?

 

Or have some of the bigger sellers been over selling on the expectation that in the past there was always slack in the ordering that they could scoop up and that no longer is the case.

[TomScrut]

1 hour ago, woodenhead said:

Hornby suffer the same issues or is it simply that Hornby prioritise orders via their own website and everyone else gets what is left?

 

I am sure I read something somewhere (on the site) that ordering direct guarantees you get it.

 

People who got let down on the NHS 66 would say that's not the case though.

[keybuk]

On 22/10/2020 at 13:05, phil-b259 said:

 

No - but how else does a retailer decide who gets a model and who misses out?

 

'First come, First served' is a sound principle - and if you pre-order soon after the model is announced you end up towards the front of the queue and thus stand a grater chance of obtaining the model should their be a shortage.

 

For what it's worth, I pre-ordered the day of the catalog announcement

[andyman7]

On 22/10/2020 at 21:05, phil-b259 said:

 

but how else does a retailer decide who gets a model and who misses out?

 

'First come, First served' is a sound principle - and if you pre-order soon after the model is announced you end up towards the front of the queue and thus stand a grater chance of obtaining the model should their be a shortage.

 

 

Agreed - but with a smaller retailer loyalty also counts for something

9 hours ago, woodenhead said:

The question is whether any people who order direct from Hornby suffer the same issues or is it simply that Hornby prioritise orders via their own website and everyone else gets what is left?

Hornby do not prioritise orders via their website, they allocate a proportion of stock for the website and when it's gone it's gone

8 hours ago, TomScrut said:

 

I am sure I read something somewhere (on the site) that ordering direct guarantees you get it.

 

People who got let down on the NHS 66 would say that's not the case though.

I think the NHS 66 was an unusual situation, but normally, if you get a preorder in on the website it is against stock allocated for website sales so it should be guaranteed. With retailers, there has clearly in the past been some dissembling between number ordered and number actually allocated - but until the dealer's order has been confirmed they cannot 'guarantee' supply simply because they said they'll take 'x' number on the order form.

In the case of a couple of the Centenary items I pre-ordered from a smaller retailer I have used for many years they said straight up that they could not be sure that they would get them. I said please try and I will buy - because I'm a good customer they knew I wouldn't change my mind. In the end they got both items for me.

[YesTor]

On 22/10/2020 at 21:05, phil-b259 said:

'First come, First served' is a sound principle - and if you pre-order soon after the model is announced you end up towards the front of the queue and thus stand a grater chance of obtaining the model should their be a shortage. 

 

Except that doesn't always seem to be the case though.  Recollectons from the Hattons 66 thread appeared to indicate that while some customers who pre-ordered much later received their items early on from the initial delivery, while some who had ordered much earlier seemed to be waiting many months later for a further batch of models to arrive.  For various reasons, some retailers might not operate on the 'first come, first served'  basis that we tend to assume.

 

Al

Edited October 23, 2020 by YesTor

[truffy]

12 hours ago, YesTor said:

 

Except that doesn't always seem to be the case though.  Recollectons from the Hattons 66 thread appeared to indicate that while some customers who pre-ordered much later received their items early on from the initial delivery, while some who had ordered much earlier seemed to be waiting many months later for a further batch of models to arrive.  For various reasons, some retailers might not operate on the 'first come, first served'  basis that we tend to assume.

 

Al

 Not wishing to go back over that thread, ISTR that some liveries were more popular than others. Plus plus plus, not all liveries were delivered together. So there’s no reason to believe any more than that. 

[YesTor]

14 hours ago, truffy said:

 Not wishing to go back over that thread, ISTR that some liveries were more popular than others. Plus plus plus, not all liveries were delivered together. So there’s no reason to believe any more than that. 

 

Sorry, I may have not explained very clearly, but I am very conscious that different liveries arrived at different times, so had already taken that into account.  My reference was to supposed instances surrounding one single livery, and therefore the same model.  There could have been other factors involved of course, however all I'm trying to say is that we'd never know for sure with any retailer as to whether orders are processed strictly 'first come, first served'.  We tend to just assume that way because that naturally seems the 'right' thing to do.

 

Al

Edited October 25, 2020 by YesTor

[Dunsignalling]

8 hours ago, YesTor said:

 

Sorry, I may have not explained very clearly, but I am very conscious that different liveries arrived at different times, so had already taken that into account.  My reference was to supposed instances surrounding one single livery, and therefore the same model.  There could have been other factors involved of course, however all I'm trying to say is that we'd never know for sure with any retailer as to whether orders are processed strictly 'first come, first served'.  We tend to just assume that way because that naturally seems the 'right' thing to do.

 

Al

I'd suggest that, without conscious intervention to sort by input (i.e. order) date , despatch is likely to be dealt with alphabetically, that being the default that customer details will be output using most software.

 

Aaron Aardvark will usually get his first.

 

John

Edited October 25, 2020 by Dunsignalling

[fezza]

One thing is for sure - supply agreements are being used as a form of price support and to encourage uncompetitive practices. This dances on the edge of legality to put it politely. 

 

I am not sure this really works for anyone long term. Yes some models sell out quickly, but many sit around for several years at retailers until they have to be discounted anyway. This surely discourages aggressive restocking among smaller shops? They aren't foolish enough to believe near RRP prices can be realised on most units. 

[AMJ]

I wonder if we will get to the scenario that some of the manufacturers do in USA that they announce items at the beginning of the month and the order book closes at the end.  Delivery then follows a few months later.  To a certain extent I think that they produce only the quantities required.

[The Johnster]

58 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

Aaron Aardvark will usually get his first.

 

 

Not very good news for Zaphod Beeplebrox, then...

[TomScrut]

16 minutes ago, fezza said:

One thing is for sure - supply agreements are being used as a form of price support and to encourage uncompetitive practices. This dances on the edge of legality to put it politely. 

 

I am not sure this really works for anyone long term. Yes some models sell out quickly, but many sit around for several years at retailers until they have to be discounted anyway. This surely discourages aggressive restocking among smaller shops? They aren't foolish enough to believe near RRP prices can be realised on most units. 

 

Yes I agree on the first paragraph, a bit like "dealer areas", if the setting of a minimum price is legal then surely it is only just?

 

I aren't sure who the discount restricting is aiming to benefit. It won't be Hornby as they have already sold the item by then.

 

I think it could in fact be the box shifters it helps. Assuming the dealer discounts/terms are the same for all because supply is limited and so there is no gain for the manufacturer dumping it all with the big dealers for less money, then the size of the box shifters could put them at a disadvantage.

 

Hypothetically a one or two person operation working from a small warehouse/shop with a good website could probably afford to sell pre orders for less than the box shifters if discounts were unlimited.

[TomScrut]

6 minutes ago, The Johnster said:

Not very good news for Zaphod Beeplebrox, then...

 

Lets hope ZZ Top don't have a joint model railway collection!

[Dunsignalling]

52 minutes ago, AMJ said:

I wonder if we will get to the scenario that some of the manufacturers do in USA that they announce items at the beginning of the month and the order book closes at the end.  Delivery then follows a few months later.  To a certain extent I think that they produce only the quantities required.

I think we're already heading that way, but the transition will be subtle and gradual to minimise unfavourable reactions to it. The future lies in estimating how many you think might sell and knocking off  5% rather than adding it on to (maybe) allow for indecisive customers.

 

The aim for manufacturers is to sell all they make and achieve the target profit within a predictable timescale, rather than hoping to sell as many as possible out of a larger run in as-long-as-it-takes at an uncertain level of return. Over-producing makes forecasting returns very difficult by encouraging consumers to assume the existence of a surplus and delay purchasing in the hope of a discount. Doing it regularly makes that all-but inevitable.

 

Limiting output generates FOMO and ensures quick sales at a reliable level of return, producing the funds required to develop the next tranche of products soonest. On the odd occasion they turn out to drastically underestimate demand (e.g. Hornby's Exeter), there is always the possibility of a re-run. 

 

John

Edited October 25, 2020 by Dunsignalling

[brushman47544]

Well done Hornby, at last. The latest releases of BR Green Mk1s do NOT have the BR carriage roundel on the body sides, which only appeared on a few coaches used in the Royal Wessex stock so incorrect on most recent releases. And the yellow first class line is correct on the corridor side of the CK, not too short as in Hornby’s own images.

[adb968008]

On 25/10/2020 at 09:08, Dunsignalling said:

I

Limiting output generates FOMO and ensures quick sales at a reliable level of return, producing the funds required to develop the next tranche of products soonest.

FOMO risks fatigue if over played.

 

ive seen a few instances where a certain manufacturer has played the “sold out” card, only for more to mysteriously appear in stock a short while later.

Ive grown immune to that.

 

But additionally if everything becomes “a sell out”, we’ll either have a huge hobby bubble of buyers, or, a whole bunch who throw in their cards and leave it to chance.

 

I think Hornby in 2020 has played well, the 2020 editions have their sparks, the 2021 deliveries look to be at market expectations. I’m interested to see if 2021’s new release schedule mimic’s 2020, or are more laid back.

 

Whilst I think Hornbys range is safe, when I look across the oo gauge industry, theres a huge amount of tooling commitments due, Or overdue, which if landing in close proximity could force people to choose between what to buy, or what to leave. Given how much duplication of tooling has recently occurred that could blow up in some  faces.

 

Edited October 29, 2020 by adb968008

[Steamport Southport]

On 25/10/2020 at 08:27, TomScrut said:

 

Lets hope ZZ Top don't have a joint model railway collection!

 

ZZ Top are still Waitin' For The Bus....

 

 

[Dunsignalling]

8 hours ago, adb968008 said:

FOMO risks fatigue if over played.

 

ive seen a few instances where a certain manufacturer has played the “sold out” card, only for more to mysteriously appear in stock a short while later.

Ive grown immune to that.

 

But additionally if everything becomes “a sell out”, we’ll either have a huge hobby bubble of buyers, or, a whole bunch who throw in their cards and leave it to chance.

 

I think Hornby in 2020 has played well, the 2020 editions have their sparks, the 2021 deliveries look to be at market expectations. I’m interested to see if 2021’s new release schedule mimic’s 2020, or are more laid back.

 

Whilst I think Hornbys range is safe, when I look across the oo gauge industry, theres a huge amount of tooling commitments due, Or overdue, which if landing in close proximity could force people to choose between what to buy, or what to leave. Given how much duplication of tooling has recently occurred that could blow up in some  faces.

 

We're already becoming accustomed to the idea of placing advance orders for commissioned models or an "expression of interest" in projected ones from some of the newer entrants to the market. The statistics so derived are then used to decide production quantities and livery priorities, but also (AIUI) fix your place in the queue for your preferred version.

 

I don't consider that mainstream players such as Hornby will ever go all the way down that road, but I think it probable that they will move closer to the growing US practice of basing production runs on contractually binding dealer pre-orders placed prior to a pre-announced cut-off date. That makes deep discounting of surplus goods as undesirable to those dealers as it is to the maker. 

 

Manufacturers will clearly have cottoned on to the resulting detrimental effect  that clearances of over-produced models can have on sales of their "second wave" models with different numbers/names, and will be keen to limit that effect.

 

I have no insider knowledge, but my reading of recent events  is that assumptions of surpluses appear to have led at least one major outlet to accept customer pre-orders in excess of  the initial quantity they expect to receive and which, on previous form, they could expect to fulfil from habitual over-production. The the size of the run has then been reduced, eradicating any such surplus, and leading to forced cancellation of customer orders that therefore can't be met. 

 

FOMO only works when some people really have missed out and others are aware of it. If the way things appear to be going  makes that happen often enough, it will influence consumer behaviour, including my own.  I do place firm pre-orders, but only for items I really want and set the money aside to pay for them well in advance of their anticipated arrival. I usually take my chances on those of more peripheral interest and the merely "nice-to-have".

 

Unless we have (or can build up) sufficient resources to ride any glut of new releases arriving together, I consider we'll all have to become more conscious as to where anything we desire sits on such a spectrum. 

 

John    

[caradoc]

22 hours ago, brushman47544 said:

Well done Hornby, at last. The latest releases of BR Green Mk1s do NOT have the BR carriage roundel on the body sides, which only appeared on a few coaches used in the Royal Wessex stock so incorrect on most recent releases. And the yellow first class line is correct on the corridor side of the CK, not too short as in Hornby’s own images.

 

Which is good, but the green BG still appears to have an incorrect number.