Corona-virus - Impact of the Health Situation worldwide

[Ron Ron Ron]

In Italy on Tuesday (yesterday), there were 2,263 active cases of contagion, 23.3% more than the previous day, Monday ( 1,835 cases ).  
Of these, 229 are hospitalized in intensive care , 1034 hospitalized with symptoms and 1000 are in home isolation. 

 

More than 2,500 people have been confirmed as having contracted The virus, with over 200 having recovered so far.

The number of deaths has risen to 79  (80 when another case is confirmed), with 27 deaths recorded on Tuesday.
 

Reports say that amongst those in intensive care, are people in their 20’s and 30’s with no record of pre-existing conditions.

A new born baby has also been tested positive and is in intensive care in Bergamo.

 

Never mind, it’s all scaremongering and exaggeration by the media........Really?

 

....and still no Foreign Office advice against travelling into the European epicentre of the virus.

 

.

Edited March 4, 2020 by Ron Ron Ron

[Edge]

58 minutes ago, mdvle said:

 

It's early, we are still learning, the numbers are unreliable and will be revised, etc.

 

But at the moment the WHO is claiming Covid-19 has a fatality rate of between 2% to 3.4%, compared to about 1% for the flu.

 

the fatality percentage is based upon early and highly suspect figures (W.H.O themselves are the source for that assertion) because of the large number of people who suffer only mild symptoms and will never seek treatment/formal diagnosis of Covid19, this will lower the fatality percentage considerably once it can be factored in.

 

ive also seen unattributed sources which state that of the 80,000 + cases diagnosed, approximately 35,000 people have already made a total and complete recovery.

[Ozexpatriate]

4 hours ago, mdvle said:

No idea how accurate, but news reports have indicated that a virus (whether Covid-19 or even the flu/cold) can remain suspended in the air for 10 minutes or so, ready for the next people passing through to either breathe in or perhaps have attach to their skin.  And cough/sneeze can transmit droplets several metres.

I have seen nothing to suggest that COVID-19 has an airborne transmission mode (floating around in the air).  It might be, but I have seen no authority declare that it is.

 

At the moment it appears to be transmitted by contact - that can include matter ejected via cough or sneeze, landing directly on a person or surface which is subsequently touched.

 

4 hours ago, mdvle said:

As for the question about people with no symptoms, I believe so far it is only a claim out of China that people without symptoms transmit the disease - so not saying it isn't happening, but also note it is not proven yet.

Asymptomatic community transmission is almost certainly taking place. This appears to be happening in the US state of Washington.

[mdvle]

1 hour ago, Edge said:

the fatality percentage is based upon early and highly suspect figures (W.H.O themselves are the source for that assertion) because of the large number of people who suffer only mild symptoms and will never seek treatment/formal diagnosis of Covid19, this will lower the fatality percentage considerably once it can be factored in.

 

I did say the numbers would likely change.

 

But it is also worth noting that the Flu numbers are also to a large extent guesswork and made up numbers - many who get the flu never seek treatment either.

 

 

 

 

 

[Ozexpatriate]

4 hours ago, robmcg said:

Personally I think and hope that covid19 is no worse than a cold or influenza virus...   at least world-wide 400,000 die each year from 'flu or secondary causes, 3rd world has many many smokers and  poor health, western world has older people who are obese, diabetic, and/or are simply old. And that's not including the common cold.

 

Media storm, scare-mongering. In my humble opinion.

Influenza continues to be a lethal disease for many. (I'm glad I had a 'flu shot this year.)

 

Based on fatalities in China, in particular with Chinese health care workers, this virus (until antiviral medications are available) appears to be more dangerous than influenza.

 

Certainly the media is "dramatizing" this story but it is not scare mongering to inform people that a new and seriously contagious disease exists and is propagating. 

 

In the US State of Washington there have been 9 COVID-19 deaths and a further 21 confirmed cases. All this has happened in the last couple of weeks. Most of the deaths were a cluster in a nursing home where none of these people traveled to China. Reports indicate that the disease has been present in the community for weeks. Certified COVID-19 testing has not been available locally until last week.

 

By comparison in the last 20 weeks (the duration of the 2019-2020 'flu season to date) there were 74 deaths from influenza in Washington. There were about 50 confirmed new cases of multiple strains of 'flu in the last couple of weeks. 

[robmcg]

2 hours ago, Ron Ron Ron said:

...

 

Reports say that amongst those in intensive care, are people in their 20’s and 30’s with no record of pre-existing conditions.

 

...

 

.

 

 

Whose reports please.

[Andy Hayter]

This source has recovered cases at over 50k.  More have recovered than are currently identified as having the virus.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

From these numbers it would seem the death rate is over 3% but (and it's a big but) as others have said getting numbers on all of those who are infected but do not/ cannot seek medical help is impossible.

 

Equally when comparing with influenza we need to be cautious since Influenza is rarely recorded as a cause of death.  It is more likely to be heart failure, pulmonary infection or the like.

 

However despite those comments, it does look as if it is easily transmitted and that the outcome for at least health-vulnerable people is generally poor and further death rates are significant whether you want to compare them with other diseases or not.

[jjb1970]

2 hours ago, Lantavian said:

Do have a reliable source to back your claim that medical statistics for 'flu contain "made up numbers"?

 

If not, it's better for you to stay quiet.

 

Medical organisations freely admit that flu morbidity and mortality numbers are derived from mathematical modelling to try and normalize reported numbers for under reporting, other diagnoses etc. And mathematical models rely on certain assumptions.  So while to say numbers are made up may be a little glib it is also a valid statement since the value of such numbers is dependent upon the efficacy of the model used and even in the case of a very robust model it is still a derived number.

[Colin_McLeod]

@Lantavian this is a model railway forum and we are discussing COVID-19 as it is interesting to us and may affect us personally. 

 

However this is not a professional medical forum and people on here should be able to say interesting things that tbey have heard about COVID-19 without having to go to the trouble of producing  authenticated source documentation to back up every statement.

 

Let's keep this discussion in perspective.  

[Gibbo675]

3 hours ago, Lantavian said:

Where did you read it?

How do we know it was a reliable source? 

How do we know that you have summarised it properly?

 

Hi Lantavian,

 

I have to say I find your manner rather abrupt, however I am a considerate man and I shall answer your questions politely.

 

A link is unnecessary, a brief explanation will suffice.

 

Copper ions from copper or alloys of copper disrupt cell membranes of microbes and viruses in such a way that the electrical charge disrupts the RNA and DNA structure of the organism rendering it unable to cause infection in the same way that chlorine ions in bleach do exactly the same thing.

 

Silver which is also a member of the platinoid group of metals withing the periodic table is actually even better for the the very same reason but is rather more expensive and therefore not used.

 

Gibbo.

Edited March 4, 2020 by Gibbo675
Spelling

[Ron Ron Ron]

6 hours ago, robmcg said:

Whose reports please.

 

4 hours ago, Lantavian said:

..... provide links to it.....

 

4 hours ago, Lantavian said:

Where did you read it?

How do we know it was a reliable source? 

Not relating to any specific comments, these questions were posted in reply....

You can read other sources of information, such as Reuter’s, ANSA (Italian news agency), Euronews, France24,  French and Italian newspapers, including the English editions and official Italian and French Government statements.

 

Note the BBC have given news reports that are a day old and which were reported the previous day elsewhere.

 

.

Edited March 4, 2020 by Ron Ron Ron

[Phil Parker]

7 minutes ago, Colin_McLeod said:

@Lantavian this is a model railway forum and we are discussing COVID-19 as it is interesting to us and may affect us personally. 

 

However this is not a professional medical forum and people on here should be able to say interesting things that tbey have heard about COVID-19 without having to go to the trouble of producing  authenticated source documentation to back up every statement.

 

Let's keep this discussion in perspective.  

 

Sorry - No.

 

It isn't unreasonable to ask that anyone provides a link to their source so we have the chance to make our own judgements. If you just repeat something you have half heard then the chances are the accuracy is going to suffer. Worse, there are people who will happily make up scare stories to gain attention.

 

As you say, this isn't a professional medical forum. Most of us are not trained or experts in disease control, so on that basis, unsupported statements should be treated as rubbish which you can't and shouldn't use to inform any decisions. Let's try to get some facts into this discussion. This isn't hard - a simple web link back to where you found your information, or full details ("I got this from Dave down the pub" or "My doctor told me") of the source.

 

In any serious situation, the first rule is not to cause a panic. Large groups of irrational people never make a bad thing better. Spreading false information could have serious consequences. It's hardly unreasonable IMHO to apply the same rigour to a disease that we would to a model railway locomotive.

[Oldddudders]

2 hours ago, Andy Hayter said:

Equally when comparing with influenza we need to be cautious since Influenza is rarely recorded as a cause of death.  It is more likely to be heart failure, pulmonary infection or the like.

About 20 years ago, when in my early 50s, I caught flu. After a few days it cycled through and was gone. But I was rather short of breath - and as an asthma sufferer I know what that feels like. Asthma this wasn't. So I went to my GP, and she told me that I was being rather brave - I had a nasty case of pneumonia, which was confirmed by x-ray, the radiographer being distinctly concerned at what he saw. Fortunately meds were effective, and after about 10 days I ventured back to work on short time. Recovery was complete, but may have left a weakness. Had I succumbed, though, the flu virus would not have been present, and pneumonia recorded as the cause of death.

[Colin_McLeod]

@Phil Parker I suppose my post was as much in response to the tone of the posts by @Lantavian as by his request for back up.   I still see this thread as a "discussion in the pub" chat rather than a medical conference so I stand by my comments. If anyone wants to make serious decisions or judgements on COVID-19 they can go to reliable places.  RMweb is not such a place for this topic.

 

I am content to agree to disagree on this one.

 

 

[Chamby]

It appears that a significant aspect of the UK’s emerging strategy to slow the spread of Covid-19 is being called Social Distancing.  It advocates the avoidance of all unnecessary social contact - a duration of three months has been mooted.

 

So yes, exhibitions, swap meets and club meetings will all be affected.  Even if you go ahead with one, most people will stay away, if this policy is in force.

 

 

[Colin_McLeod]

1 minute ago, Lantavian said:

 

 

Challenging people who do that helps prevent the spread of myths and mistakes.

 

 

Do you have any evidence or data to back up that statement? 

[Phil Parker]

21 minutes ago, Ron Ron Ron said:

Not relating to any specific comments, these questions were posted in reply....

You can read other sources of information, such as Reuter’s, ANSA (Italian news agency), Euronews, France24,  French and Italian newspapers, including the English editions and official Italian and French Government statements.

 

This is true, but if someone is regurgitating something they have read elsewhere then providing a link back isn't unreasonable rather than expecting us all to go out and re-research the matter to see if they are telling the truth.

 

4 minutes ago, Colin_McLeod said:

 I still see this thread as a "discussion in the pub" chat rather than a medical conference so I stand by my comments. If anyone wants to make serious decisions or judgements on COVID-19 they can go to reliable places.  RMweb is not such a place for this topic.

 

I'd like to think that the standard of discussion is higher than that. All I'm looking for is a link back to your source if on-line, NOT a difficult thing. I don't see why RMweb should be a super-spreader for lies and inaccurate information.

 

2 minutes ago, Lantavian said:

Misinformation is a virus too.

 

Very true.

[gordon s]

As someone over 70 with a suppressed immune system, I am obviously taking an interest in all developments and will take extra precautions, even self isolation if that's the only option. It's not difficult getting information, but so much of it is contradictory and adding to that pile with misinformation doesn't help.

 

Probably fine if you're in your 20's or 30's and fit as a fiddle, but not great when you find yourself in the 20% at risk that everyone talks about.

 

There's no panic on my side, just an awareness and a need to be one step ahead of the game.

[Chamby]

Observed in the local Tesco’s last night:  Empty shelves where the alcohol-based antibacterial gel should be, with a notice saying stocks not due in for another week.  Several brands of soap also out of stock.

 

In contrast, right by the entrance, a humongous mountain of toilet roll multi-packs!  Someone’s pre-empting panic buying, it would seem.

 

So we won’t be able to wash our hands properly, but can wipe our ar**s as much as we like...  

[friscopete]

Discussion in the pub and misinformation  is all part of our rich genetic make up .Humans have a remarkable ability to believe  and worship people spouting crap and ignoring people like scientists and doctors .Its our curse.

[tomparryharry]

56 minutes ago, Gibbo675 said:

Hi Lantavian,

 

I have to say I find your manner rather abrupt, however I am a considerate man and I shall answer your questions politely.

 

A link is unnecessary, a brief explanation will suffice.

 

Copper ions from copper or alloys of copper disrupt cell membranes of microbes and viruses in such a way that the electrical charge disrupts the RNA and DNA structure of the organism rendering it unable to cause infection in the same way that chlorine ions in bleach do exactly the same thing.

 

Silver which is also a member of the platinoid group of metals withing the periodic table is actually even better for the the very same reason but is rather more expensive and therefore not used.

 

Gibbo.

 

Good point Gibbo. We have, in the past, run a bare copper wire along the ridge of a property to cut down the progress of moss on the roof. The idea being that an oxidised rainwater solution is enough to do the trick. Following on from that, I'm wondering if a simple copper bracelet is the answer...... 

[Legend]

Well there's a lot of hysteria out there . But what we do know is there is a new type of virus out there . It may or may not be deadlier than the common flu virus . Best thing is to avoid it.

 

Whats the responsible thing to do?   Clearly wash hands regularly . If you feel unwell for whatever reason , don't struggle into work like many of us do , but stay home .  If you can work from home do it (my employer has already given this advice). Avoid unnecessary contact with people .  To me that does mean avoid cinemas ,restaurants , large public gatherings until this is over . Avoid putting yourself at risk and the danger if you are infected of transmitting it to others.

 

We have to all act responsibly .

[jonny777]

9 minutes ago, Legend said:

Well there's a lot of hysteria out there . But what we do know is there is a new type of virus out there . It may or may not be deadlier than the common flu virus . Best thing is to avoid it.

 

Whats the responsible thing to do?   Clearly wash hands regularly . If you feel unwell for whatever reason , don't struggle into work like many of us do , but stay home .  If you can work from home do it (my employer has already given this advice). Avoid unnecessary contact with people .  To me that does mean avoid cinemas ,restaurants , large public gatherings until this is over . Avoid putting yourself at risk and the danger if you are infected of transmitting it to others.

 

We have to all act responsibly .

 

It would appear that some already have - 

 

Approximately six weeks before the outbreak of the coronavirus epidemic, in early December 2019 in Wuhan (China); 

an exercise was organized by the Davos World Economic Forum in cooperation with the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The exercise was held in New York City on 18 October 2019, for the specific purpose of mapping the response of transnational corporations and governments to a coronavirus epidemic.

15 world leaders took part in this exercise, including the two Chinese and American officials in charge of fighting epidemics.

Latoya Abbott, Risk Management Director, US-based Marriott International Hotel Chain.
Sofia Borges, Vice President of the United Nations Foundation
Brad Connett, President, US Medical Group at Henry Schein Inc. (world leading producer of medical equipment)
Christopher Elias, Global Development Manager, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Tim Evans, former director, World Bank Health Department.
George Gao, Director of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Avril Haines, former CIA deputy director and former national security adviser to President Barack Obama.
Jane Halton, former Australian Health Minister, Board member of ANZ (Bank of Australia and New Zealand).
Matthew Harrington, director of Edelman, the world’s largest public relations firm.
Martin Knuchel, Director and Head of Crisis and Emergency Management for Lufthansa Group Airlines.
Eduardo Martinez, legal counsel to the world’s largest postal logistics company, UPS, and director of the UPS Foundation.
Stephen Redd, Deputy Director, US Center for Disease Control and Prevention.
Hasti Taghi, vice-president, NBCUniversal communications group.
Adrian Thomas, vice president of pharmaceutical giant Johnson& Johnson
Lavan Thiru, Governor of the Central Bank of Singapore

___
https://www.voltairenet.org/article209126.html?

[Captain Kernow]

36 minutes ago, tomparryharry said:

I'm wondering if a simple copper bracelet is the answer...... 

Someone once tried to sell me a copper bracelet as the answer to back problems. I didn't buy it and subsequently found a good osteopath!

 

[APOLLO]

Only in Milton Keynes !!

 

 

The look the man is giving on the left says it all !!

 

Brit15