Corona-virus - Impact of the Health Situation worldwide

[melmerby]

1 hour ago, adb968008 said:

 

China went from 40 cases to 11,000 in 2 weeks, and by Jan 31st had 258 dead.

 

Unfortunately from earlier news that came out of China, it would appear that local officials suppressed early reports of Covid-19, so the 40 cases is probably a grossly underreported figure.

A local Medic was even sacked for trying to make people aware of the disease.

"Spreading false facts" of something like that was used for the reason for his removal.

Once central government realised the seriousness of the situation, it threw all it's resources into it.

 

Edited March 10, 2020 by melmerby

[Ron Ron Ron]

46 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

......FCO advice ssems to be lagging behind, when Italy was around 100 cases they advised against Northern Italy travel, yet here we have France, Spain, Germany at over 1500, Netherlands, Switzerland at c500...

 

clusters seem to be on the go on the borders between France & Germany 

 

no advice...

 

Have they given up ?

 

The FCO did not issue advice against visiting northern Italy, until this past Sunday afternoon (2 days ago), when the cases had reached over 7,000 and deaths had risen to over 300.

Their earlier advice only covered the tiny original group of 10 small towns and villages SE of Milan, that the Italian government locked down almost 2 weeks ago, despite the fact that the vast increase in cases had already occurred over a far wider area of Lombardy and surrounding regions.

Totally useless advice covering a very small geographical area of the province, where very few if any British citizens were likely to visit.

At the same time, several other European countries has issue advice against travelling to the whole of northern Italy.

Lagging behind? 
Totally useless IMHO.

 

We were due to visit family near Bergamo over the weekend and cancellation of the trip would not have been covered by travel insurance, in light of the FCO’s lack of appropriate advice.

We decided to cancel regardless.

It was only BA cancelling our return flights at the last minute, that allowed us to get a full refund on our air fares.
 

At least the FCO has finally caught up today, but are being quite vague on advice for travelling to France, Spain and Germany.

 

 

.

[sharris]

The figures are worrying, but:

 

Italy hadn't had a sustainable birth rate since about 1975, so it now has an aging population - the demographic most at risk, which might help to explain the higher mortality figures.

 

In terms of recovery, it might be too early to confirm many as fully recovered yet.

 

 

[gordon s]

Just heard on the news that Nadine Dorries has tested positive for Corona virus and had attended recent Government functions and meetings.

No doubt more info will follow tomorrow.

[EddieB]

22 minutes ago, melmerby said:

Unfortunately from earlier news that came out of China, it would appear that local officials suppressed early reports of Covid-19, so the 40 cases is probably a grossly underreported figure.

A local Medic was even sacked for trying to make people aware of the disease.

"Spreading false facts" of something like that was used for the reason for his removal.

Once central government realised the seriousness of the situation, it threw all it's resources into it.

 

Agree but for the last statement.  It’s easy for Central Government to blame (and sack) local officials when the true situation can no longer be suppressed.

 

Of course, with this in the news, there’s not so much about the Uighur people’s “mass re-education” nowadays.

Edited March 10, 2020 by EddieB

[Ravenser]

1 hour ago, adb968008 said:

Italys death rate seems a bit concerning.

China went from 40 cases to 11,000 in 2 weeks, and by Jan 31st had 258 dead.

Korea went from 20 cases to 7500 in the same two weeks and 54 dead.

 

However italy is tonight is at 10k cases, and 631 dead.. against only 1004 recovered....  its 6% (and 60% mortality against current recovered)

indeed China has 3000 deaths on 80k cases... italys 20% of that already on just 10k cases.

 

I wonder if the state of the health system is a player here, China could call on resources for 1bn people, and build a hospital in Wuhan, Italy is tiny by comparison to China.

 

To be losing 1 in 3 is a bit worry some... i know you can only measure at the finish, but comparing against other regions, your chances in Italy don't look good...

 

FCO advice ssems to be lagging behind, when Italy was around 100 cases they advised against Northern Italy travel, yet here we have France, Spain, Germany at over 1500, Netherlands, Switzerland at c500...

 

clusters seem to be on the go on the borders between France & Germany 

 

no advice...

 

Have they given up ?

 

 

 

In China , and specifically Hubei province, the number of cases filling the hospitals far outstripped their ability to test. We know that , because of the spike when they started to include the "clinical diagnosis" cases - those where the doctors could see it was coronavirus but had no test result

 

The study of the first 44,000 cases from which most of the estimates derive reported a mortality of about 5%, though there seems to be a strong conviction amongst the medics that the true rate is around 1% , and the difference is accounted for by mild cases not picked up

 

In Italy clearly  they are still able to test everyone who reaches hospital , but with so many cases now they probably can't test all the contacts who are feeling a bit under the weather - assuming they have time left to chase them. That would mean , in effect, only the more serious cases are getting a test - the mild or asymptomatic cases aren't being picked up. This would skew the mortality rate.

 

Also Italy has a very old population and the mortality is very skewed towards the old. The old get the virus , get seriously ill, go to hospital and are tested. Most of the younger infected don't get ill enough to be admitted to hospitals under serious pressure so won't be tested and therefore aren't in the count. It was quoted that the average age of the dead in Italy is 81.4

[melmerby]

43 minutes ago, EddieB said:

Agree but for the last statement.  It’s easy for Central Government to blame (and sack) local officials when the true situation can no longer be suppressed.

 

 

It was not central government who sacked the medic but a local administrator.

[Ravenser]

3 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

My concern is its already too late.

 

news continually trickles around the world of cases exported from the UK.

i am left wondering that its already out of control, its just the testing hasnt kept up and is hiding the reality.

 

Ive heard tonight, what kind of amounts to confirmation of the rumours aluded to last night... St Heliers death was not isolated so patients, staff, their families are at risk... But still our local school insists once a day washing hands before lunch will suffice.

 

Now we have the health minister with Coronovirus...fell ill friday, 5 days on is diagnosed.. thats 5 days of exposure before diagnosis.. if it takes that long to test an MP, theres no hope the rest of us. If incubation is 5 days and testing takes 5 days, by the time contact tracing Is done, those patients have probably already will have symptons and be active spreading, if not already on the road to recovery.

 

that war is lost...
 

As long as the doors are open and 60k goto to the Cheltenham gold cup etc etc..its an explosion waiting to go..

 

in the US whole towns are now being shut down for less than 10 cases.

The UK will need to take drastic action,  that many will see as draconian, but it needs to be done...time and again the virus shows in the battle of virus vs economy virus wins...its about how much national pain you will be willing to accept before getting on with it... sometimes winning the war requires admitting defeat in a battle.

 

 

 

We have done 10x more tests than the US. We've done over 26,000 tests for 373 positives. UK coronavirus numbers The Yanks have done about 2500 tests. This piece may well be too negative - but it does cast Britain as one of the few places testing seriously us test limitations  

 

It takes 48 hrs to get test results no matter who you are, so Nadine Dorries will have been tested on Sunday and the results came back this afternoon... No doubt she has been self isolating since before she was tested.  One political correspondant (TomNewton Dunne) has  has just tweeted 

 

Quote

Tom Newton Dunn✔@tnewtondunn

I understand Nadine Dorries only tested positive for coronavirus late this afternoon, but had not been in contact with any other ministers since Friday when she started to show symptoms.

Nadine Dorries

 

It is unfortunately a reality that those with coronavirus are infectious before they have symptoms, and only when symptoms emerge are they tested, even if they have been self-isolating before that. It is not realistic to assume that cases will be isolated before they can infect others (by the time you've worked out they are a contact they have been infectious for a while) , especially if they are found when they arrive sick at hospital. I doubt there was much isolation in Wuhan hospitals as patients arrived

 

A steady trickle of Continental politicians have been diagnosed with the virus, as have 2 attendees at an EU Ambassador's meeting

 

And no the Americans are not isolating towns or shutting them down for ten cases

Quote

New York state has 173 active cases, the most in the US, and 108 of them are in Westchester County, where New Rochelle is located.

New York City, 25 miles (40km) south of New Rochelle, has 36 confirmed cases of the virus in its population of eight million people.

Full link - US measures

 

If one London borough had 108 cases, then I think we would see more drastic  action there- but that's  not what the figures show. The cases are thinly spread, and we are not seeing those concentrations and hotspots . Whereas in Italy the vast majority of cases are in one region, and I have seen it said  that in Spain half the cases are around Madrid

[Craigw]

13 minutes ago, melmerby said:

It was not central government who sacked the medic but a local administrator.

 

Different feet of the same Centipede.

[Ron Ron Ron]

I don’t think it’s worth mulling over what happened in China, with regard to openness and the government’s initial handling of the situation.

We should be more concerned with the here and now and trying to learn lessons day by day, hour by hour, about how other countries are dealing with the epidemic and how our own government’s advisors and experts are able to adapt and change their advice in light of a rapidly changing scenario.

 

It’s only right that the government and senior health officials are guided by “the science”,  but having followed events unfolding elsewhere, I’m becoming a little edgy about all this.
I’m just an ordinary ignorant citizen with regard to these matters, but  my gut feeling is that the “experts” might be caught with their pants down and may have misjudged the speed and severity of infection across the UK population.

Having close family right in the heart of it in northern Italy, my view may be a little coloured though.

I hope I completely wrong

[Reorte]

14 minutes ago, Ron Ron Ron said:

I’m just an ordinary ignorant citizen with regard to these matters, but  my gut feeling is that the “experts” might be caught with their pants down and may have misjudged the speed and severity of infection across the UK population.

 

What isn't all that clear at the moment (at least I've not heard all that much) is what proportion of existing and new cases are from people coming back to the UK from elsewhere (or from direct contact with such people) and how many have picked it up more or less at random in the UK.

[Andy Hayter]

5 hours ago, Lantavian said:

 

I wonder if that local administrator was a member of the Communist Party....

 

What is to wonder?  China is a one party state.

[EddieB]

7 hours ago, melmerby said:

It was not central government who sacked the medic but a local administrator.

I wasn’t referring to the doctor, but the local officials who were “blamed” for suppressing the facts.

[John M Upton]

The problem is you cannot physically stop anyone from travelling and or visiting anywhere, similarly you cannot enforce anyone to stay at home.

 

Closing schools for example will just result in thousands of school kids wandering the streets, they aren't going to sit at home and parents who have to work to pay the Bill's whether they have a sniffle or not are not going to be able to lock them in are they?

 

If this bug is to be allowed to run its course I would rather they just got on with and get it over with than delay. 

[AY Mod]

51 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

finally, don't forget our national news is now subject to official censorship...its officially branded as “teaming up NHS with Google, Facebook” etc, its ostensibly to counter fake news.. but the information flow is now understate control to decide what news is fake and what they want you to know.

 

Whilst accepting that we may not know true and up to date statistics every minute of the day (and that any reported cases lag behind immediate reality) I am pleased that some form of control may be exercised. I reported a couple of things to Facebook at the weekend (one claimed completely false figures as part of a low-life clickbait link) and they go for inspection - Facebook say you won't see the post again so you haven't got a clue if the crap is still circulating. I don't think the information is 'state-controlled' as there are plenty of independent news sources but it will help if people read and share less fake rubbish - the online version of your village rumour-mill.

[spikey]

Cheer up chaps.  At least we don't have Trump running the show here ...

 

[Ryde-on-time]

54 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

It happens too here..trying getting to the truth of what happened at St Helier’s case last week... even the newspaper is questionable, there was a dozen comments yesterday.. today they are all removed.

 

i’ll not share more than I have (apparently not isolated, a chain of transmission discussed), but theres much more being said.

 

local rumours are awash with what happened. All the staff are terrified right now and chirping in school playgrounds every morning. One bland statement from officials isn't sufficient to stop a cover up or scotch rumours, which are growing faster than the virus.

 

Perhaps you have been told the truth but don't want to accept it. You seem to believe rumor rather than facts from health professionals. Your actions seem to be exactly what they are advising again because of the effect it can have on ones mental health

 

It is obviously a serious situation which will get worse but I have been quite impressed with the UK response. There is obviously an army of people working away unseen who have traced, tested and cleared tens of thousands of people, a far higher proportion compared to those affected compared to the USA (UK has tested 10x more)

 

You keep suggesting the government should take action but what? My mum had an eye operation last Friday after waiting since last August. She was warned before hand that it would not go ahead if the government shut schools, Chatting with the medical staff during the op, they made it clear there would be a huge negative impact on the health service if schools were closed and I think there would have been far more deaths than the half dozen we have had from the virus

 

So I will continue to listen to the facts because i feel that the info given by the likes of Sir Chris Whitty (Who is not a politician) has been very clear, factual and helpful

[jjb1970]

I'd like to think that parts of the media are perhaps recognizing that some of the headlines and click bait we've seen recently that were just feeding panic and fear were perhaps irresponsible and are now trying to adopt a more measured position.

 

I feel a lot of sympathy for the WHO and other health agencies that are trying to provide balanced and scientifically valid information and updates in the face of the culture we are seeing.

[Ravenser]

32 minutes ago, Ryde-on-time said:

Perhaps you have been told the truth but don't want to accept it. You seem to believe rumor rather than facts from health professionals. Your actions seem to be exactly what they are advising again because of the effect it can have on ones mental health

 

It is obviously a serious situation which will get worse but I have been quite impressed with the UK response. There is obviously an army of people working away unseen who have traced, tested and cleared tens of thousands of people, a far higher proportion compared to those affected compared to the USA (UK has tested 10x more)

 

You keep suggesting the government should take action but what? My mum had an eye operation last Friday after waiting since last August. She was warned before hand that it would not go ahead if the government shut schools, Chatting with the medical staff during the op, they made it clear there would be a huge negative impact on the health service if schools were closed and I think there would have been far more deaths than the half dozen we have had from the virus

 

So I will continue to listen to the facts because i feel that the info given by the likes of Sir Chris Whitty (Who is not a politician) has been very clear, factual and helpful

 

 

And here is a detailed report on the situation in La Rochelle NY La Rochelle

 

at least 70 cases in a town of 77,000. National Guard activities:

 

Quote

The National Guard will be deployed to help clean schools and public spaces as well as deliver food.

But Mr Cuomo stressed there would be no travel restrictions in the town.

 

[Oldddudders]

10 hours ago, gordon s said:

Just heard on the news that Nadine Dorries has tested positive for Corona virus and had attended recent Government functions and meetings.

No doubt more info will follow tomorrow.

I hear she had been at No 10 on Thursday, and Boris has been with HM Queen this week, among other dignitaries. Some of this may be about to concentrate minds. 

[AY Mod]

3 minutes ago, Oldddudders said:

Some of this may be about to concentrate minds. 

 

Absolutely, I'll tell Bungle, Phil and Madge that they're excluded from RMweb Towers.

[tomparryharry]

I was minding my own business,

sitting on the Po,

Up popped a little Gnome,

He said to me:- Hello!

 

" I'm selling lots of toilet rolls,

"they're terribly soft,

"There's  fifty thousand of them,

"Crammed up in the loft!

 

"How many do you want? (He said),

"With easy ways to pay!

"At only 20 quid a throw,

"I'm giving them away!

 

With profiteering hereabouts,

And other heinous crimes,

I popped down to the newsagents,

And stocked up on The Times! 

 

"Oh dearie me!

Said the Gnome,

"How about some bread?

"With panic buying going on,

"You've got to keep ahead!

 

"With all the hoarding I have done,

"I've covered all the bases,

"With dated soup in dodgy tins,

"We've got it by the cases!

 

"Look here Gnome!

I said, putting down my paper,

"Life is going on OK, 

"We're all wise to your caper!

 

 

And so, the Gnome, forlorn,

He didn't want a fuss,

He went and had a look outside,

And got knocked down by a bus.

 

And so, this little ditty, 

Every word is true,

To wonder about toiletries,

Whilst stuck here on the loo...

 

Well, not the bus. I made up that bit.......

 

 

 

 

[APOLLO]

Interesting infographic (if it works)

 

 

Brit15

[sharris]

3 minutes ago, Lantavian said:

 

Perhaps the comments were 1) wrong or 2) defamatory. Or both.

 

Public comments on a newspaper website - surely not?! 

[adb968008]

I lost my father to a H virus, Ive suffered something broadly similar.

I humbly apologise for being scared.

 

ive taken a lot of hits and a lot of insensitive comments in this thread.

I hope you are all right and I wish you the best

 

I will retire from the thread and remove my previous contributions also.

 

 

 

Edited March 11, 2020 by adb968008