Corona-virus - Impact of the Health Situation worldwide

[beast66606]

My Mrs' academy (in Norfolk) has just banned all (official) travel outside of Norfolk and Suffolk

[sharris]

21 minutes ago, AY Mod said:

...It's an Admin function to stop people blowing their own toes off...

 

Too many medical problems to think about!

It was bad enough with the virus. Do we need to start worrying about auto-toe-ectomies now too? 

[Guest Lyonesse]

21 minutes ago, AY Mod said:

...

 

I certainly didn't intend to cause offence in the York show thread and when I found that people had taken offence I apologised.

 

> Oh boo hoo...

I didn't think it was part of the moderator's duties to take the lead in abusing posters.

 

Please delete my account.

[HonestTom]

14 minutes ago, jjb1970 said:

 

The economic impact is a separate but linked matter to the virus outbreak itself. It has been obvious for a few weeks that the cost to the global economy of this outbreak would be significant. The economic impacts are the result of disruption to supply chains, trade, staff getting to work etc and perhaps general societal reactions, those impacts (at least to date) are disproportionate to the medical problems. It's a complex issue, I have been told by certain medical agencies that improvements in local air quality and reductions in related health impacts could outweigh the negative impacts of the virus (although no doubt things will very quickly return to normal.

 

While I believe that many of the cases of self-isolation are a case of locking the stable door after the horse has bolted, I do find myself wondering if the small silver lining will be less transmission of other diseases. For instance, fewer colds because those who would normally fight their way into work are now isolated while they recover.

[Reorte]

Just now, HonestTom said:

 

While I believe that many of the cases of self-isolation are a case of locking the stable door after the horse has bolted, I do find myself wondering if the small silver lining will be less transmission of other diseases. For instance, fewer colds because those who would normally fight their way into work are now isolated while they recover.

 

That's a good point which will probably lessen the overall economic impact slightly (as well as the upsides of simply not catching a cold).

 

I doubt self-isolation is entirely locking the stable door after the horse has bolted either, because whilst it won't completely eliminate transmission it should at least slow it down.

[HonestTom]

1 minute ago, Reorte said:

 

That's a good point which will probably lessen the overall economic impact slightly (as well as the upsides of simply not catching a cold).

 

I doubt self-isolation is entirely locking the stable door after the horse has bolted either, because whilst it won't completely eliminate transmission it should at least slow it down.

 

True, and I am firmly in favour of taking reasonable precautions to slow the virus down - I don't think self-isolation is a bad idea per se. But I do take the view that if the virus is infectious for two weeks before symptoms show, I reckon that's the time when it's most likely to be dangerous. People who are symptomatic aren't likely to be seeing too many people whether they have COVID-19 or a heavy cold.

[AY Mod]

4 hours ago, HonestTom said:

As I mentioned earlier, I work for the NHS in an institution that is very much at the eye of the storm.

 

It's something I should have said earlier before getting bogged down in numbers and negating sensationalism but I think we all owe you and everyone else within the Health Service and supporting scientific bodies a huge debt of gratitude for working at the sticky end of one of the biggest pressures known. It's fine saying there's a bottomless purse at the moment but that translates into people, hours and stress and hopefully everyone can get to the other side of it.

[HonestTom]

2 minutes ago, AY Mod said:

 

It's something I should have said earlier before getting bogged down in numbers and negating sensationalism but I think we all owe you and everyone else within the Health Service and supporting scientific bodies a huge debt of gratitude for working at the sticky end of one of the biggest pressures known. It's fine saying there's a bottomless purse at the moment but that translates into people, hours and stress and hopefully everyone can get to the other side of it.

 

Many thanks, although I must admit that the people who really have the short end of the stick are in the high consequence infectious diseases team. My department isn't as directly affected as some, but we are certainly feeling the impact - I'm having to field calls from people asking what they should be doing, whether they should attend clinic, etc etc. And as I say, we're getting some absolute toerags who feel justified in stealing our hand sanitiser, toilet paper etc. So much for the national unity people were preaching about a month ago, and I'm sure you can understand why I get so irritable about panicky speculation.

 

But on the whole, I have it easy compared to many in the service. HCID are basically saints at this point.

[Oldddudders]

A great piece of news that the NHS will get extra funding - but what is in the shop? There may be more supplies and equipment that can be purchased at short notice, which is good, but building hospitals in the UK takes a lifetime, so the Wuhan option isn't on the table. As for human resources, you can't bring in extra nurses and doctors overnight, plus a percentage of the NHS workforce is under threat of deportation due to not holding citizenship and not earning enough to reach a threshold, like the girls who took Sherry's mammogram last week. Leaning on the Home Office might ease that? 

[Bernard Lamb]

Two points from "my" news today.

SWMBO is going to Germany next week and has been told that the concert that she was going to has been cancelled, as have many other events.

In a café this morning there was a note on the door asking you to wash your hands before entering and to wait for a table to be swabbed down before sitting down. It also asked you to use a piece of paper towel to turn off the tap rather than touching the tap with your bare hands.

Bernard 

[The Stationmaster]

1 hour ago, beast66606 said:

My Mrs' academy (in Norfolk) has just banned all (official) travel outside of Norfolk and Suffolk

The (Swiss) company. my son works for banned all official travel from several weeks ago up until early May.  They have now extended the ban and his trip to see his boss in Geneva in mid May was cancelled yesterday.  So far the company had, up to yesterday, only one reported sufferer (in. Spain) but I wouldn't be surprised to see then introduce home working for as many staff as possible before too long.

 

Incidently lest anybody start talking about percentage death rates in the UK somebody involved in the epidemiology was speaking yesterday on R4 and explained that the first round of testing in the NHS was carried out on patients in intensive care units and was then extended to other very ill patients.  And some of the provinces in Italy with high death rates have disproportionately above average numbers of residents aged over 65 when compared with other countries.

 

In the meanwhile I wonder if attendance at various upcoming model railway exhibitions might be hit if those of us above a certain age, particularly those of us with colds etc. are told to keep out of social contact etc or decide to do so of our own volition.?

[Ron Ron Ron]

A Pandemic has been declared by the WHO

 

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-outbreak-declared-pandemic-by-who-11955521
 

 

 

....The WHO. ...”I hope I die, before I get old....”.  !!!!!

 

 

 

.

Edited March 11, 2020 by Ron Ron Ron

[The Stationmaster]

4 minutes ago, Oldddudders said:

A great piece of news that the NHS will get extra funding - but what is in the shop? There may be more supplies and equipment that can be purchased at short notice, which is good, but building hospitals in the UK takes a lifetime, so the Wuhan option isn't on the table. As for human resources, you can't bring in extra nurses and doctors overnight, plus a percentage of the NHS workforce is under threat of deportation due to not holding citizenship and not earning enough to reach a threshold, like the girls who took Sherry's mammogram last week. Leaning on the Home Office might ease that? 

One possibility that goes through my minds is that a number of hospitals - as ours here - have empty spaces  which have either never been used ot r once were wards which have been closed in the past.  So provided equipment is available in the form of beds and bedding etc it might be possible to create additional ward accommodation relatively easily.  Here for example two wards totalling 18 beds could be created overnight provided the equipment is available but that obviously then requires staffing.

 

But the big problem is inevitably going to be staffing although there is presumably a theoretical pool of recent retirees and other leavers who might be prepared to come back plus qualified staff who are currently in admin jobs who could be moved into more useful roles? 

[Legend]

8 minutes ago, The Stationmaster said:

The (Swiss) company. my son works for banned all official travel from several weeks ago up until early May.  They have now extended the ban and his trip to see his boss in Geneva in mid May was cancelled yesterday.  So far the company had, up to yesterday, only one reported sufferer (in. Spain) but I wouldn't be surprised to see then introduce home working for as many staff as possible before too long.

 

Incidently lest anybody start talking about percentage death rates in the UK somebody involved in the epidemiology was speaking yesterday on R4 and explained that the first round of testing in the NHS was carried out on patients in intensive care units and was then extended to other very ill patients.  And some of the provinces in Italy with high death rates have disproportionately above average numbers of residents aged over 65 when compared with other countries.

 

In the meanwhile I wonder if attendance at various upcoming model railway exhibitions might be hit if those of us above a certain age, particularly those of us with colds etc. are told to keep out of social contact etc or decide to do so of our own volition.?

 

Attendances almost certainly affected I would say as people make up their own minds .

 

My company has already banned non business critical travel and suggested working from home wherever possible . Seems eminently sensible to me .

[jjb1970]

In our place non-business critical travel was suspended a couple of weeks ago and all travel to Asia quite a while ago. 

 

The big problem for us now is that IMO are suspending meetings. This could have quite significant impacts as the Organisation really needs to take some big decisions on GHG matters this year as well as the usual stuff on safety and environmental regulation. The consequences of some of these decisions slipping could be significant.

 

 

[Ron Ron Ron]

6 hours ago, Ron Ron Ron said:

Mrs Ron has travelled by train from the Southampton area, up to London Waterloo this morning........ etc, etc,

 

An update on this earlier post.

Just spoke to Mrs Ron, who reports the Covent Garden area in London is almost spookily quiet.

Cafe’s, restaurants and bars are not busy at all. 
3 weeks ago it was absolutely throbbing with people, even on a dull, cold Monday afternoon and evening.

 

 

.

[Ron Ron Ron]

Italy has reported an increase of almost 23% in the number of confirmed cases, since yesterday.

 

Up by 2,313 cases to a total of 12,462

Deaths up by 196 to a total of 827

 

Recovered = 1,045

Critical cases = 1,028

 

 

Sweden, Norway and the Netherlands have more cases than the U.K. at the moment.

 

 

 

.

 

 

[Ravenser]

1 hour ago, Oldddudders said:

A great piece of news that the NHS will get extra funding - but what is in the shop? There may be more supplies and equipment that can be purchased at short notice, which is good, but building hospitals in the UK takes a lifetime, so the Wuhan option isn't on the table. As for human resources, you can't bring in extra nurses and doctors overnight, plus a percentage of the NHS workforce is under threat of deportation due to not holding citizenship and not earning enough to reach a threshold, like the girls who took Sherry's mammogram last week. Leaning on the Home Office might ease that? 

 

Anyone who is already here ought to get "settled status" or at least "pre-settled status" and therefore would not be deported. That was agreed under the Withdrawal Agreement , and the process is already far advanced, with well over 2 million already registered . The salary threshold would only apply to new arrivals entering the UK after 1st Jan 2021 

 

The French media may possibly be representing otherwise , but if so, incorrectly. The question that has been raised has been a continuing supply of new recruits for the NHS from overseas in future - those already working in the NHS will be fine.

 

One practical solution  would be to requisition hotels for use as temporary basic hospitals /isolation facilities . It was done in both World Wars , and I would imagine that in a full-blown outbreak most hotels would be nearly empty. A requisitioned Travelodge or Premier Inn in every large town would offer the NHS some emergency extra capacity 

[TheQ]

Our senior (in both meanings) engineer has self isolated, he's a bit of a world globe trotter with his job. All International travel was banned at the beginning of last week.  Reminders have been sent to all engineers to take their laptops home each night. ( I get the emails because I'm in the same department, but many grades lower) .

The worrying thing by a coincidence of areas his seat is just the other side of a 5 ft partition ..

[sharris]

1 hour ago, Ron Ron Ron said:

Sweden, Norway and the Netherlands have more [reported] cases than the U.K. at the moment.

 

That might depend on reporting times and daily increases - the global dashboard at https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 still has yesterday's UK figures while the UK's dashboard at https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14 has today's UK figures (yesterday and today being relative terms as they represent the previous day's reporting).

 

Current global dashboard figures - reported cases:

Sweden 477

Norway 440

Netherlands 503

UK 384

 

Current UK dashboard figure: 456

 

Within the limits of statistical reporting, I'd say they're all pretty close and wouldn't want to judge one country as doing particular better or worse than another. 

Edited March 11, 2020 by sharris

[Oldddudders]

44 minutes ago, Ravenser said:

 

Anyone who is already here ought to get "settled status" or at least "pre-settled status" and therefore would not be deported. That was agreed under the Withdrawal Agreement , and the process is already far advanced, with well over 2 million already registered . The salary threshold would only apply to new arrivals entering the UK after 1st Jan 2021 

 

The French media may possibly be representing otherwise , but if so, incorrectly. The question that has been raised has been a continuing supply of new recruits for the NHS from overseas in future - those already working in the NHS will be fine.

 

One practical solution  would be to requisition hotels for use as temporary basic hospitals /isolation facilities . It was done in both World Wars , and I would imagine that in a full-blown outbreak most hotels would be nearly empty. A requisitioned Travelodge or Premier Inn in every large town would offer the NHS some emergency extra capacity 

Nothing to do with France. Sherry enquired of the ladies while her mammogram data was being processed, in the trailer in the car park of B&Q Torquay. They seemed quite unsure of tenure. Mammograms are never fun for the patient, yet Sherry felt this one was undertaken particularly comfortably. The sort of people the NHS should be proud of. 

[Ron Ron Ron]

9 minutes ago, sharris said:

.....Current UK dashboard figure: 456 
 

Already out of date, as the figure was 460 a few minutes ago and 2 more deaths.

 

I’m guessing that the reporting of cases on different data bases will differ and leapfrog each other until the rate of rise stabilises.

 

.

[sharris]

2 hours ago, Oldddudders said:

plus a percentage of the NHS workforce is under threat of deportation due to not holding citizenship and not earning enough to reach a threshold, like the girls who took Sherry's mammogram last week. 

 

If the Metro is to be believed on salary thresholds the NHS is one of those special cases where the threshold has been dropped from £25,600 to £20,480 for new immigrants - those already with settled status should be ok ('should' as anything to do with Brexit seems to be on shifting sand).

https://metro.co.uk/2020/02/29/post-brexit-immigration-rules-12324404/

 

What is probably more significant to NHS staffing levels is the number of EU NHS workers who have been disincentivised to stay in the UK and decided to leave anyway.

[Ravenser]

2 hours ago, Oldddudders said:

Nothing to do with France. Sherry enquired of the ladies while her mammogram data was being processed, in the trailer in the car park of B&Q Torquay. They seemed quite unsure of tenure. Mammograms are never fun for the patient, yet Sherry felt this one was undertaken particularly comfortably. The sort of people the NHS should be proud of. 

 

The Agreement is quite clear, but there seems to be a lot of suspicion among EU nationals (including at our place) that Britain does not intend to honour the agreement, and that in a couple of years time the country will repudiate their residency and expel them. Since we aren't Idi Amin's Uganda, that won't happen, and we've never kicked out anyone with permanent residency unless they were convicted criminals or had joined ISIS.

 

But unfortunately there seems a widespread belief among EU nationals that any Government reassurance on residency is bound to be a lie, and that the Government would love to expel everyone at the first possible opportunity. I've heard at least one EU national directly and explicitly liken Britain's current policy towards EU nationals to the Nazi Party's policy towards the Jews in the 1930s - despite massive legal protection in the Withdrawal Agreement and nobody at all in Britain suggesting it shouldn't be honoured in full

 

 Hence, although there is no possibility whatsoever they will be deported,  the only thing that will convince many EU nationals of that is a couple of years practical experience that it simply won't happen. Further official reassurances will be dismissed with contempt by many, and may even heighten suspicion

Edited March 11, 2020 by Ravenser

[Tom F]

Evening all!

This has been of great concern to me recently (and I'm sure to others). I am a peripatetic music teacher and I'm only paid for what I teach. If schools are forced to close, I will begin to worry.

Thankfully I have my weathering business, but the main reason for this was to tide me over the school holiday period when I have little income coming in.

 

Worrying times (and I'm trying to use the hobby for escapism....rather unsuccessfully at the moment)

Edited March 11, 2020 by Tom F