Corona-virus - Impact of the Health Situation worldwide

[Doncaster Green]

I have followed this thread with interest in all posts, concern with some, horror at some suggestions and, every now and then, a small leavening of amusement.   I have not posted anything as I felt I had nothing to add to the discussion and no constructive suggestions to make nor could offer any reasonable interpretation of the mumblings and ramblings coming from all sides of the political divide that are effectively, for me, clouding and confounding the views of the 'experts' (even though they can't seem to agree with each other).

 

The proposal that the over 70's may be asked (or required) to effectively self-isolate for a considerable period actually causes me some concern.  I am not quite 70 and my wife has just passed 70 and the thought of a couple of months of no shopping, etc. does not actually fill me with dread, it would make a pleasant change.  I, as far as I am aware, have no underlying health issues.   My wife, however, has a number, one of which would make isolation impossible.   For a number of years she has had to undergo kidney dialysis 3 times a week since loosing both kidneys to cancer.   This requires travel to a dedicated unit that is not part of a hospital complex, takes patients from a wide area and of varying ages and infirmities and utilises contract staff that also travel from far afield.  To not go to the unit would, automatically, be a death sentence (without treatment survival would not be much more than a week -10 days), but to go would also seem to do the same, but not in such a short timescale.  The staff do not appear to be aware of any planning as to what happens if one or more patients or staff contract the virus and there are very limited isolation facilities in the unit.  There are, I believe, around 65000 people across the country who depend on this treatment, I trust that somebody, somewhere, remembers they are there!

 

John

[John Tomlinson]

29 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

IIRC, world deaths from Spanish Flu were estimated at 30 to 50 million, with a mortality rate of 2.5% of those infected.

 

Figures coming out of Italy suggest this Coronavirus roughly matches that percentage and some UK government projections have suggested that as many as 70% of the population will eventually get it. Judging from the recent acceleration in new cases, it does seems to be quite easy to catch so that figure seems credible. 

 

Doing the maths: 60 million x 70% x 2.5% comes to a possible UK-only worst-case-scenario of around a million dead, so it's easy to see why HMG are going in hard on pushing back peak infection rates to warmer months. 

 

 

PERSONAL OPINION

 

1. I accept the WHO's word that Covid-19 is extremely dangerous.

 

2. By now, medical advisers probably have a better handle on exactly how lethal it is than they state publicly.

 

3. Politicians are telling us enough to stimulate us to take strong precautions but not to cause mass panic. 

 

John

Whilst your maths may have some value in giving a worse case, it does seem to me to be very much that. Surely we should bear in mind the general health and well being of the population at the onset?

 

The UK in 2020 is a developed first world country, with generally high standards of nutrition across the population, far higher than in 1918 at the end of a dismal war with four years of shortages, and that compared to a low base. On a world comparitive, you are bringing in the population of all countries, in which both then and now, the general populace are far poorer than in the UK. We also have functioning clean water and sewage systems, essential to personal hygiene and washing. These were not general in the UK in 1918, nor are they today in large swathes of Africa and Asia. It does seem to me that real apocalypse will ensue in 2020 if the virus starts to get a grip in many of the poorer countries, and there will be little hope for those at the bottom end, for example in shanty towns with none of the facilities we take as read.

 

John.

[Torper]

33 minutes ago, jjb1970 said:

 

I think the true infection rate is massively higher than confirmed cases, as was pretty much admitted by the government this week.  So far it appears that initial assurances that most people will suffer either mild or unpleasant but not abnormally so symptoms (and in some cases no symptoms) were correct. Which means numbers are essentially guessed and so is the mortality rate. However if infection rates are indeed much higher then that infers that mortality rates are probably a lot lower than if calculated from confirmed  cases.

 

So am I right in thinking that the figures that the UK governments give us relate only to confirmed cases, i.e. those which are serious enough to have necessitated admission to hospital?  And if that is the case it presumably follows that the Government has no real idea as to how many people actually have been infected.  And the point you make about mortality rates is a good one - if the mortality figures quoted by the Government are based solely on the confirmed hospital cases, then it follows that the true mortality rate for all those who have been infected must be much lower than the ones normally quoted.

 

DT

[4630]

Coronavirus advice from Network Rail Wessex;

 

https://twitter.com/SteveWhiteRail/status/1239240404719095817?s=20

[jcredfer]

Gov't advice, as is now.

 

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-stay-at-home-guidance/stay-at-home-guidance-for-people-with-confirmed-or-possible-coronavirus-covid-19-infection 

 

Julian

 

[Grovenor]

1 hour ago, Torper said:

Another question that is currenntly bothering me is how do people know if they actually have Cov-19?  It seems that no-one is being tested for it unless they become seriously ill and go into hospital.  So how do those people who feel a bit unwell, have some symptoms just a bit like ordinary flu or even a minor cold and cough and just self isolate for a week and follow advice not to call 111 or see their doctor know if they've had Cov-19 or not?  And if they don't know, how does the Government know?  This is particulalry important if, as is claimed, people who've had Cov19 once won't get it again.

 

DT

And how are these people self isolating and told that they should not contact their doc etc for 7 days manage to get hold of the sick pay that the gov just said they would pay from day 1?

[black and decker boy]

Based on confirmed cases, mortality rate across various countries is up to 5%
 

our government keep quoting around 1% and I’ve not heard them say 2% yet so they are clearly making assumptions about wider infection.

 

there are many countries which are testing far more widespread In the community than we are so statistical data will be available though clearly as the virus has only existing 3 months, the true accuracy of those statistics, across varied cultures & climates, could be somewhat lacking.

 

lets hope we can look back, alive, at the end of 2020 and Analyse the actual statistics, actions taken and success / failure 

[Captain Kernow]

1 hour ago, JSpencer said:

Regulary drinking water (small doses but often), especially gassy kind, can wash down the virus to your stomach where the acids will kill it (I guess as long as you don't dilute it with too much water)

That's potentially quite useful, as I always drink fizzy water every day!

 

1 hour ago, JSpencer said:

Maybe gargling in your throat with an anti septic solution can help too.

Absolutely agree with this. Whilst I cannot vouch for how efficacious it may be with regard to Coronavirus, my wife swears by the gargling of TCP (diluted) whenever she detects the signs of a sore throat. Might not get rid of the sore throat completely, but she is convinced that it mitigates the effects of it. Tastes horrible, but from my own experience, I wouldn't dismiss it either.

 

[Dave 46]

22 hours ago, Andy Hayter said:

Dave you could send her this link

http://www.leparisien.fr/societe/coronavirus-edouard-philippe-annonce-la-fermeture-des-lieux-publics-non-essentiels-14-03-2020-8280051.php

 

It includes a video of part of the announcement.  Timing of 20:05 means it will have missed many early evening broadcasts - perhaps deliberately.

 

Edit to add:

I am trying to find out whether the announcement used devoir or n'est pas permit to indicate must not.  For the non French speakers the difference is must not go out ( as in should avoid at all costs) versus are not permitted to go out.  It may seem a mute point but trust me it isn't.

Thanks for that.  I have sent it on to her.  She is booked on the overnight ferry from St Malo on Thursday night, so I'm hoping there will be no problems with the 2.5 hour drive.

 

Dave

 

[Jonboy]

Personally I cannot stand carbonated water, makes me want to gag in normal times...

 

do we think gargling whisky would help, i normally swear by it for normal sore throats?

[Gilbert]

1 minute ago, Jonboy said:

Personally I cannot stand carbonated water, makes me want to gag in normal times...

 

do we think gargling whisky would help, i normally swear by it for normal sore throats?

 

I suggest you try it and report back...please...

[black and decker boy]

48 minutes ago, Grovenor said:

And how are these people self isolating and told that they should not contact their doc etc for 7 days manage to get hold of the sick pay that the gov just said they would pay from day 1?

You self-cert for 7 days.

 

After 7 days you are supposed to be cured or in hospital 

[Andy Hayter]

2 hours ago, antrobuscp said:

 

Fully agree with this, particularly as, if you think you've had the virus and you haven't, you may relax precautions a little, and then end up catching it. I can understand that testing large numbers of people will divert some effort from front-line caring, but if you don't track the situation, how do you know you're plan is working? 

Just to be clear, if you have had the virus you should not relax precautions.  Just because you won't get it again does not mean that you cannot pass it on to someone else because for example you have the virus on your hands.

Academic at this stage of the infection but it will become important as time goes on.

[Anglian]

2 hours ago, JSpencer said:

The other thing to note is that it seems to infect the throat first, causing a slight sore throat before going down to the lungs. This will be the outer layer of skin, and while you may not be able to stop infection, you can hit that area, and hit it hard, with some hope of maybe slowing the infection down buying your immune system time. 

Regulary drinking water (small doses but often), especially gassy kind, can wash down the virus to your stomach where the acids will kill it (I guess as long as you don't dilute it with too much water). Maybe gargling in your throat with an anti septic solution can help too.

(Some advice has been to drink hot soup as well, though you need 60 degress to kill it which is hot enough to burn you).

Finally, don'r drink alcohol. That will weaken your defense system.

 

There are a lot of these myths circulating online. Whilst staying hydrated is always a good thing the notion of the virus being washed down by drinking water to be destroyed by stomach acid is simply laughable. 

https://www.england.nhs.uk/2020/03/nhs-takes-action-against-coronavirus-fake-news-online/

Edited March 15, 2020 by Anglian

[jcredfer]

50 minutes ago, Jonboy said:

Personally I cannot stand carbonated water, makes me want to gag in normal times...

 

do we think gargling whisky would help, i normally swear by it for normal sore throats?

 

In desperation [from lack of TCP supply in the French Alps] I found a triple Gin gargle to be almost as efficacious.  No ice, no tonic and no lemon, just the Gin - the triple dose was to make up for the reduced antiseptic strength of the Gin, compared to the TCP - Honest!!  Slow gargle and even slower trickle down the throat, for complete rinse...   one shot, then repeated for the other two shots.  Not just effective but much more sociable than the TCP odour.

 

Julian

 

[JSpencer]

16 minutes ago, Anglian said:

There are a lot of these myths circulating online. Whilst staying hydrated is always a good thing the notion of the virus being washed down by drinking water to be destroyed by stomach acid is simply laughable. 

https://www.england.nhs.uk/2020/03/nhs-takes-action-against-coronavirus-fake-news-online/

 

 

Maybe. But you've nothing to loose on this one unlike say drinking alcohol or whiskly which will definately weaken the defense system. 

 

 

[JSpencer]

Now here is a report (sorry in French but must exist in English), which shows how disasterous this is.

 

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-agissez-aujourdhui-2bd1dc7838f6

 

In a nutshell, the Chineese province had 60 million people which went into complete shut down and isolation after just 400 confirmed cases. The following weeks eventually showed 80,000 confirmed cases, the bulk of these infections having already been made before the isolation shut down was made.

 

The UK has 1200 confirmed cases which means 240,000 people probably carrying it. Italy went into shut down after 15000 confirmed cases which means probably millions are infected. Those hospitals are going to be very busy.

[BWsTrains]

5 hours ago, Torper said:

 

Here in Tayside there are 15 cases out of a population of 416,080 - that's 0.0036%.  And for that supermarket shelves are being emptied and they're shutting the place down and talking of imprisoning elderly people in their own homes.  I still fail to understand why it is being put about that this epidemic will infect more people then Spanish flu (c.25% in 1918/19 when there was no NHS, no remotely suitable drugs and a hugely depleted medical service) or Asian flu (18% in 1957).

 

DT

It's all in the numbers. UK has grown from 23 to 1144 cases in 15 days, a daily compound rate of 29.7%!

 

Apply that compopund growth rate to Tayside and your modest 15 cases WOULD become 37109 after 30 days. That is why the authorities are acting so forcefully, this is no joke.

 

Go to https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

and look at South Korea, with good management they have halted the spread in less than that same period of 30 days.

 

22 Feb - 204 Cases,  10th March 7513 cases, now 8162 cases and barely growing.

 

Time for some serious commonsense here

 

 

 

[Reorte]

1 hour ago, Jonboy said:

Personally I cannot stand carbonated water, makes me want to gag in normal times...

 

do we think gargling whisky would help, i normally swear by it for normal sore throats?

Some smell like TCP anyway.

[Reorte]

1 hour ago, black and decker boy said:

You self-cert for 7 days.

 

After 7 days you are supposed to be cured or in hospital 

 

Looking at the number of cases vs recoveries it seems to be rather longer than 7 days to recover.

[Dunsignalling]

3 hours ago, John Tomlinson said:

Whilst your maths may have some value in giving a worse case, it does seem to me to be very much that. Surely we should bear in mind the general health and well being of the population at the onset?

 

The UK in 2020 is a developed first world country, with generally high standards of nutrition across the population, far higher than in 1918 at the end of a dismal war with four years of shortages, and that compared to a low base. On a world comparitive, you are bringing in the population of all countries, in which both then and now, the general populace are far poorer than in the UK. We also have functioning clean water and sewage systems, essential to personal hygiene and washing. These were not general in the UK in 1918, nor are they today in large swathes of Africa and Asia. It does seem to me that real apocalypse will ensue in 2020 if the virus starts to get a grip in many of the poorer countries, and there will be little hope for those at the bottom end, for example in shanty towns with none of the facilities we take as read.

 

John.

Agreed, in the case of the 2.5% quoted for Spanish Flu, but the same sort of figure has been coming out of Italy in respect of Covid-19.

 

Moreover, two thirds of the Italian outbreak has been centred on Lombardy, which is pretty much the richest region of the country, on a par with affluent parts of the UK, and has extremely good healthcare provision.

 

As someone who is probably on the edge of vulnerability purely on age (though my general health is good), It's that comparison with the UK that I find concerning and, like you, I dread to contemplate the potential effects in less developed parts of the world.

 

Governments across the planet are turning accepted economic practice on its head in order to rein-in this virus, and that can only indicate a calculation that the cost of not doing so would be far higher. 

 

It's possible that an effective vaccine may become available late this year or early next but, until it does, or the pandemic subsides of itself, we may be in for a very rough ride.

 

John

 

 

 

 

Edited March 15, 2020 by Dunsignalling

[melmerby]

6 hours ago, Torper said:

 

Here in Tayside there are 15 cases out of a population of 416,080 - that's 0.0036%.  And for that supermarket shelves are being emptied and they're shutting the place down and talking of imprisoning elderly people in their own homes.  I still fail to understand why it is being put about that this epidemic will infect more people then Spanish flu (c.25% in 1918/19 when there was no NHS, no remotely suitable drugs and a hugely depleted medical service) or Asian flu (18% in 1957).

 

DT

Because it has been found to be more contagious. More contagion more cases.

Does that satisfy you?

 

[Andy Hayter]

In comparing with the 1918/19 flu outbreak the truth is no one really has any idea of the infection level or indeed the number of deaths - put variously between 25m and 100m depending on your source.  People do not usually die of influenza, they die of heart failure pulmonary complications, pneumonia etc.  So guestimating the death rate is a game for any number of players.

 

What is important is that C-19 virus is showing all the signs of being a serious cause of debilitating the population and causing a significant number of deaths.  Arguing about whether it is worse better or the same as the Spanish flu epidemic has no meaning to someone laying on a gurney gasping for breath and waiting for someone else on  ventilator to die.

 

Anyone who saw tonight's BBC news and the bereaved Spanish woman sat gasping for air outside of a hospital, too sick to move and too well to be admitted, will begin to understand the levels of distress this virus is going to cause.

 

In the posts on this site and also in the wider world I see far too much about how the virus is not going to be a big problem and "I" am going to weather it out.  WE need to stop thinking about I and start thinking of the others in our midst who are far less fortunate and likely to badly impacted directly or indirectly.

[robmcg]

Well it looks like the UK is aiming at herd immunity in the medium-long term. With isolation in the meantime for the most vulnerable.

 

Much of the rest of the world, Australia, NZ, Poland and others are going for total attempted isolation from exposure.

 

I have no idea which is the better course, but I am assuming that I will be exposed to covid-19 or a variant of it in my future, being 69 yrs but healthy it is no great comfort either way.

 

The economic costs are already huge, and I do rather admire the UK approach.

[monkeysarefun]

15 minutes ago, robmcg said:

Well it looks like the UK is aiming at herd immunity in the medium-long term. With isolation in the meantime for the most vulnerable.

 

Much of the rest of the world, Australia, NZ, Poland and others are going for total attempted isolation from exposure.

 

I have no idea which is the better course, but I am assuming that I will be exposed to covid-19 or a variant of it in my future, being 69 yrs but healthy it is no great comfort either way.

 

The economic costs are already huge, and I do rather admire the UK approach.

 

I undertand the herd immunity concept when it comes to vaccinations - enough  people are immunised against something so that the pathogen has trouble finding a victim, but in this case, the immunity seems to be based upon enough people catching Covid 19  that eventually the pathogen cannot find new subjects. 

Hence the need for all the vulnerable people - the over '70's etc - to lock themselves away for months cos if they get it the NHS will be filled with all the young. so they will probably be left to die. . 

 

Brave call by the UK government, personally I prefer the Aust NZ etc  approach and am glad I live way down here.

 

We also led the world in toilet paper hoarding!

 

Edited March 16, 2020 by monkeysarefun