Corona-virus - Impact of the Health Situation worldwide

[antrobuscp]

21 hours ago, Lantavian said:

 

 

 

Thank you for the link - I did explore this a little more some time after my post, and found something similar to this elsewhere. The only additional information there was that the earlier vaccines might help if the patient were to develop an "old style" pneumonia as a secondary infection, although that was not considered to be very likely. Thanks again.

[StevieD71]

13 minutes ago, Sprintex said:

 

Depends on whether your asthma is considered "severe" or not? 

 

Like you I've had asthma since birth and I'm 50, but it's not considered to be chronic. I have a salbutamol inhaler mainly used on very cold mornings or before exercise, but rarely at other times, and only for a brief period years ago did I have a brown steroid inhaler to use daily. I also usually have a bout of flu once a year, but I don't consider myself to be high-risk in terms of this virus.

 

Paul

Hence my confusion. I take Symbicort morning and evening which is the steroid controller and have Salamol easibreathe which I use at least once every day. 

The pleurisy I had when I was in my early 20's wiped me out for almost a month and I've had the flu jab ever since.

I feel that my asthma is kept in reasonable check by the inhalers, but do the other factors make it severe or chronic?.

 

[John Tomlinson]

4 minutes ago, Andy Hayter said:

 

You are right John it is the Chinese data, and there is a problem that we do not know the level of mild or asymptomatic cases, neither for China nor for any other country.  The Italian data is however highly supportive of the general trend, with a massive increase in severe infection as age increases.

 

The percentages are in any case of little importance to an individual.  If you are 70 and if as suggested the chances of catching the virus at some stage is 80% then you have (according to the numbers) a 6.4% chance of dying.  If you do catch the virus that chance rises to 8% and if you die it is 100%.

No, my point is that there are a whole set of cases out there that are never recognised, the people involved feel slightly / moderately ill and recover. Your number of 8% deaths for age 70-79 is the number of deaths divided by the cases that heve been tested and confirmed, in other words 8 per 100. If actually there are another 900 cases out there that never were recorded, the deaths become 8 per 1000 actual cases, even though 900 of them have never been recognised, and the actual mortality is 0.8%.

 

John.

[LBRJ]

I have always wanted to type this line...

 

It would seem that around here at least, the older people are revolting

 

and it would appear to be true!

 I run the Sunday night quiz in the local, and last night expected something close to no one to be there - takings were up by about 50%.

Same story in a couple of places I call in at on a Monday too.

 

The Blitz Spirit appears to (at least temporarily) to have morphed into something like

 

if they are going to make me stay inside for four months, I may as well be gone anyway

 

I wouldn't dare go as far as to say if that good or bad, but I certainly admire the stance

 

[Mike Storey]

Well, here in France, as of tomorrow (Tuesday), NOBODY is allowed out of their house/flat, unless going to essential work, going shopping or for medical attention, or for brief outdoor exercise or dog walking, but alone. No socialising. No sport. No nothing. Just as we are due for a spell of good weather. Apparently, according to M. Macron, around 25% of people were ignoring recent advice on social distancing etc. So they have made it mandatory now.

 

You need to print out a form explaining the reason for your journey and carry it with you. (As all bars, cafes, restaurants, cinemas, shops except those selling food, and similar, were already shut down from last weekend, and all football, rugby and other sports have basically ceased, there is little to go out for anyway). If caught playing hookey, the fine starts at 38 euros, up to 1,000 euros. Some 100,000 cops to be used to monitor and enforce, including road blocks on all main and secondary routes.

 

On the other hand, Macron also announced massive bailout funds for companies and individuals affected, plus other fiscal measures.

 

This is supposed to last for 15 days, which is probably a bit optimistic.......

 

We thought we were well out of it here in very rural Western France, but only yesterday, we found out someone had tested positive in a village just eight miles down the road (which, here, is like next door). 

[Ozexpatriate]

1 hour ago, Andy Hayter said:

Agree John (Dunsignalling) except for your 10% for over 65s

 

The stats I have show

60 - 69 3.6%

70 - 79  8%

80 and over  14.8%

 

1 hour ago, John Tomlinson said:

Andy, I think these are the Chinese numbers, based on deaths as a percentage of confirmed cases - I say this as they look remarkably familiar from something I saw elsewhere.

They are the Chinese numbers, through February 11, 2020.

 

You can find them near the bottom of this page.

 

50-59: 1.3%

40-49: 0.4%

 

Also included are fatalities by underlying conditions which to my thinking are even scarier.

[maico]

If you look at the active cases chart for China it's fallen rapidly to 9000 now, from a peak of 58.000 on the 17th of Feb. Strict lockdown in the hotspots has clearly worked. No fancy modelling required.....

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/

 

(note: do not confuse total cases graphs with active cases graphs as some in the media do)

[robmcg]

NZ has just announced a package of wage subsidies etc amounting to 4% of GDP   I think it's NZ$ 1.2 billion  and pretty much guarantees an income for those laid off, up to NZ$575/wk (£287) , and relief for employers who are still paying staff on extended leave or are losing business as a result of Covid-19.  

 

Air NZ which is one of the few profitable airlines in the world and is 51% Govt. owned is reducing flights by 80%.  The expectation is that many other big airlines will be bankrupt by May unless subsidised. 

 

All to be reviewed in some weeks from now.

 

Printing 4% of GDP is practical for us because we are starting with Govt debt at 18.5%, where many countries run nearer 40%    and such as  Japan much higher debt still.

 

The new money is targeted to those who are suffering directly, e.g. travel, hospitality, there are increases in welfare too, to keep local spending ticking over. 

 

I think if governments can take on debt, and the health-management crisis can be managed, there may be hope, but equity markets are still in no-mans-land.

 

The broad aim is to prevent the hospital system being overwhelmed with high-need patients, similar I presume to the UK?.

 

Voluntary isolation and cleanliness is the current tool of choice for infection control, no large crowds, sports etc.  Mandatory isolation for the infected.

 

How people living in crowded homes will cope is unclear.

 

Again this NZ action may or may not be useful for the UK or the EU or the USA. Some students are openly flouting the recommendations and rule of 'under 500 people' citing some uni lectures with 600+  saying they will 'continue to party', but by-and-large the message is obeyed.

[gismorail]

Something that has been wandering through my mind recently is the fact that we have not had any news regarding the situation in Russia has anyone any info 

[maico]

7 minutes ago, gismorail said:

Something that has been wandering through my mind recently is the fact that we have not had any news regarding the situation in Russia has anyone any info 

 

93 cases 8 recovered

[Joseph_Pestell]

2 hours ago, gismorail said:

Something that has been wandering through my mind recently is the fact that we have not had any news regarding the situation in Russia has anyone any info 

There was a TV report about it a couple of days ago.

Supposedly very few cases there but some suspicion that the Russkies not telling the whole truth.

[Joseph_Pestell]

2 hours ago, robmcg said:

 but equity markets are still in no-mans-land.

 

 

One thing that this episode certainly teaches us is that equity markets have no valid place in the modern world. They do little or nothing to serve their original purpose of raising finance for business. Mostly it is just a transfer of wealth from one body to another. Some people will make huge fortunes from the stock markets during this period. Most of us will lose greatly.

 

The markets should have been shut down for a long period until this blows over.

[robert17649]

50 minutes ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

 

One thing that this episode certainly teaches us is that equity markets have no valid place in the modern world. They do little or nothing to serve their original purpose of raising finance for business. Mostly it is just a transfer of wealth from one body to another. Some people will make huge fortunes from the stock markets during this period. Most of us will lose greatly.

 

The markets should have been shut down for a long period until this blows over.

all markets are is but relatively sophisticated and stonking expensive gambling

[Joseph_Pestell]

Just now, robert17649 said:

all markets are is but relatively sophisticated and stonking expensive gambling

Most gambling involves risking one's own money.

 

I don't gamble but stock markets allow someone else to gamble with my money.

[Dunsignalling]

7 hours ago, LBRJ said:

I have always wanted to type this line...

 

It would seem that around here at least, the older people are revolting

 

and it would appear to be true!

 I run the Sunday night quiz in the local, and last night expected something close to no one to be there - takings were up by about 50%.

Same story in a couple of places I call in at on a Monday too.

 

The Blitz Spirit appears to (at least temporarily) to have morphed into something like

 

if they are going to make me stay inside for four months, I may as well be gone anyway

 

I wouldn't dare go as far as to say if that good or bad, but I certainly admire the stance

 

We all have the right to go to hell in the handcart of our own choosing...

 

Because the development of this outbreak seems to be behind the curve in the UK, I think there's a "phoney war" feeling around, but that will be rudely shattered as soon as someone we know cops it.

 

I've a regular pub lunch on Tuesdays with a couple of pals (one over 70) which looks like being the last for a while, if we even go ahead with it today. I'm awaiting a decent hour to check.

 

If there is any vestige of positivity to be had, those of us with an absorbing hobby have a better chance than most of emerging from any lockdown with our psychological wellbeing intact. 

 

John

[jjb1970]

I know this is a gruesome thought but 12 weeks isolation may well be the equivalent of incarceration for life for some elderly people. Given that the measures being instigated are primarily to protect the elderly and those with pre-existing medical conditions I am not sure that isolating them for 12 weeks with the attendant risks for mental health under threat of fines and prison is appropriate.  I think many will self isolate out of choice, but i could understand octogenarian deciding that walking the dog is a risk they would rather take than basically being placed under home detention for what could be a significant part of their remaining time. I guess the counter argument is strain on healthcare but I tend to find the idea of turning countries into police states with civil rights and freedom suspended to be more worrying than the health crisis. Call me a cynic but when the health crisis blows over ( and it will) and the world is left with the mother of all economic hang overs I bet some of these emergency powers remain in statute books just in case.

[tractionman]

Social distancing does not mean "incarceration", just reducing face to face contact, so walking the dog is not ruled out under the current guidance according to the government advice here

 

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-guidance-on-social-distancing-and-for-vulnerable-people/guidance-on-social-distancing-for-everyone-in-the-uk-and-protecting-older-people-and-vulnerable-adults

 

Cheers,

 

Keith

[jjb1970]

3 minutes ago, tractionman said:

Social distancing does not mean "incarceration", just reducing face to face contact, so walking the dog is not ruled out under the current guidance according to the government advice here

 

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-guidance-on-social-distancing-and-for-vulnerable-people/guidance-on-social-distancing-for-everyone-in-the-uk-and-protecting-older-people-and-vulnerable-adults

 

Cheers,

 

Keith

 

Not yet, but I suspect we will see that escalate and measures get steadily harder. 

[Hal Nail]

7 minutes ago, jjb1970 said:

 

Not yet, but I suspect we will see that escalate and measures get steadily harder. 

Still, nice problem to have given I was told at school we'd all die in a nuclear war sooner or later.

[Joseph_Pestell]

9 hours ago, Ron Ron Ron said:

 

 I can't see how any government could afford to deal with all of the financial consequences resulting from this disaster.

 

 

But they can't afford not to either. Deal with the short-term consequences now or deal with much more difficult long-term consequences later.

 

It will be done (here and elsewhere) by "printing money". Not of course real printing these days. Normally that would lead to massive inflation. But with many of us unable to shop, that won't be the case here.

 

The issue, some months down the line, is to then reign back that money supply when things are returning to normal.

[4630]

1 hour ago, jjb1970 said:

I guess the counter argument is strain on healthcare but I tend to find the idea of turning countries into police states with civil rights and freedom suspended to be more worrying than the health crisis. Call me a cynic but when the health crisis blows over ( and it will) and the world is left with the mother of all economic hang overs I bet some of these emergency powers remain in statute books just in case.

 

Absolutely.  The need for Government to take these additional powers is worrying and I share your cynicism, given that I understand the emergency legislation will effectively pass through both Houses of Parliament 'on the nod', without the usual scrutiny and I would imagine also without it containing any form of 'sunset' clause.  

 

I was always under the impression that the Civil Contingencies Act 2004 was the piece of legislation, which contained comprehensive provisions, was intended to cover just the sort of significant issues that the country now faces.  

Edited March 17, 2020 by 4630

[tractionman]

51 minutes ago, jjb1970 said:

 

Not yet, but I suspect we will see that escalate and measures get steadily harder. 

 

I fear so, this is now reported on BBC this morning

 

8:26

 

'Stronger' advice for UK's vulnerable to come

 

England's deputy chief medical officer, Professor Jonathan Van-Tam, has been speaking about the measures announced by PM Boris Johnson last night.

 

On stay-at-home advice,he said new "strong advice" for the UK's "extremely vulnerable" will be coming in the next week or so. The over-70s, and those vulnerable irrespective of their age, would be asked to remain in their homes and ask friends or neighbours to do food shopping for them.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-51921683

 

If / when that comes into force in the coming weeks my concern will be for the very many folks for whom--like my dad--become isolated in their own homes. He's in his 80s, lives alone a long way from me and my siblings, reliant not on social media and gadgets (eg yesterday, over the phone, my attempt to help him set up Skype failed), and reliant much more so on the tele. I wish there was wall-to-wall classic films or old sport on the TV (Freeview) at the moment, to occupy him and help him pass the time, rather than being drawn into the 24-hours news coverage which is just too alarming. 

 

Meanwhile I am encouraging him to get outside, potter round the garden (thankfully he has one), and go for a short walk (but keeping a distance), rather than feeling he has to stay indoors.

 

all the best,

 

Keith

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Dunsignalling]

35 minutes ago, jjb1970 said:

I know this is a gruesome thought but 12 weeks isolation may well be the equivalent of incarceration for life for some elderly people. Given that the measures being instigated are primarily to protect the elderly and those with pre-existing medical conditions I am not sure that isolating them for 12 weeks with the attendant risks for mental health under threat of fines and prison is appropriate.  I think many will self isolate out of choice, but i could understand octogenarian deciding that walking the dog is a risk they would rather take than basically being placed under home detention for what could be a significant part of their remaining time. I guess the counter argument is strain on healthcare but I tend to find the idea of turning countries into police states with civil rights and freedom suspended to be more worrying than the health crisis. Call me a cynic but when the health crisis blows over ( and it will) and the world is left with the mother of all economic hang overs I bet some of these emergency powers remain in statute books just in case.

The evidence of the Italian experience (so far) is that over-80s who get the virus while infection is running at a high rate are extremely unlikely to receive any treatment.  Even without, it seems likely that over 80% will get through it.

 

It may well be that some will find risking infection (without being reckless about it) more acceptable than the prescribed method of avoiding it - some I know clearly hold the view that "I've had a good run and if it gets me, it gets me".   

 

Rightly or wrongly, the worldwide priority that has emerged is achieving the highest possible survival rate, at almost any cost. Whether that will, in the fullness of time, prove to be the wisest course, remains to be seen. However, even totalitarian states like China clearly regard "letting it rip" as unacceptable (though, as ever, what North Korea does will be anybody's guess).

 

I've always held the opinion that in order to worry about "freedom" (within the definition of which almost everyone will have slightly different views on the relative merits of the priorities) you first need to be alive and well enough to strive for your version of it. Freedom has never been absolute, and hopefully never will be. Past civilisations are judged by how, why and where they placed limits upon it, and our own will be no different.

 

As in war, perhaps we should start worrying about what comes next once victory is on the horizon.  

 

John

[Dunsignalling]

As an aside, the room I'm typing this in overlooks the road (which is usually fairly busy during commuting hours) and I've barely seen or heard a car go by so far this morning...  

 

John

 

PS. No sooner do I say that and three go by in a line. 

Edited March 17, 2020 by Dunsignalling

[melmerby]

20 minutes ago, tractionman said:

 

 I wish there was wall-to-wall classic films or old sport on the TV (Freeview) at the moment, to occupy him and help him pass the time, rather than being drawn into the 24-hours news coverage which is just too alarming.

Keith

Talking Pictures is just that

24hr classic movies on Freeview Ch81 (Or Freesat 306)

 

There's also Sony Movies on Freeview Ch32 and Sony Movies Classic* on Freeview Ch50 and always Film 4 on Freeview Ch14

 

*Sony Movies Classic is not on all Freeview transmitters, if you have a local TV service on channels 7 or 8 you should be able to get it.