Corona-virus - Impact of the Health Situation worldwide

[Reorte]

8 minutes ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

 

This makes a lot of sense. It would explain the now reducing curve of new recorded infections and deaths in the countries most affected so far.

 

But we can't know if they are right until there is antibody testing.

 

It would be good news if true - we'd be much closer to being past it all. Being a grumpy so-and-so I can't help feel it's a bit too good to be true, but I'd like to be proved wrong. Wouldn't we already be having the maximum number of reported cases if it was correct?

 

 

[Joseph_Pestell]

9 minutes ago, Reorte said:

 

It would be good news if true - we'd be much closer to being past it all. Being a grumpy so-and-so I can't help feel it's a bit too good to be true, but I'd like to be proved wrong. Wouldn't we already be having the maximum number of reported cases if it was correct?

 

 

We can't know without testing. Korea (both North and South) have done far more testing.

[runs as required]

A lot of the UK domestic bickering about ppe supplies seems to be whether it involves NHS England (as the baddy) or the other Scottish and Welsh versions (I'm not sure about N Ireland).

At other times they just say NHS UK.

Can anyone clarify the chain of command ?

 

By far the most impressive communicator was the Major General on the Today programme this morning who explained in the simplest terms the logistics of setting up a 4000 bed 'Field Hospital' in London Docklands (apparently on the lines of the one at the Warley Exhibition site some years ago!)

 

2

Good to hear the return of "Plus or Minus" on R4 at a new time of 0900h this morning - all about Covid-19

[andyman7]

27 minutes ago, Reorte said:

 

It would be good news if true - we'd be much closer to being past it all. Being a grumpy so-and-so I can't help feel it's a bit too good to be true, but I'd like to be proved wrong. Wouldn't we already be having the maximum number of reported cases if it was correct?

 

 

Because of the shotage of testing resources, the number of people who have been infected and recovered is an unknown. Reported cases are just that - the known ones and there is consensus that the actual penetration of the virus is much greater. Everythings is being tested in real time but what we and a number of other European countries are evaluating is whether strong social distancing measures control the spread enough to load balance ICU admissions with maximum enhanced capacity. You don't want no-one to get it - what you want is to prevent the vulnerable getting it and moderate the spread so that health services can handle the spread in the general population, 90% of whom need no medical intervention.

[Reorte]

1 minute ago, andyman7 said:

Because of the shotage of testing resources, the number of people who have been infected and recovered is an unknown. Reported cases are just that - the known ones and there is consensus that the actual penetration of the virus is much greater. Everythings is being tested in real time but what we and a number of other European countries are evaluating is whether strong social distancing measures control the spread enough to load balance ICU admissions with maximum enhanced capacity. You don't want no-one to get it - what you want is to prevent the vulnerable getting it and moderate the spread so that health services can handle the spread in the general population, 90% of whom need no medical intervention.

 

I appreciate the limits of the testing that can be done, but if the methodology of testing remains the same then whilst it won't give the complete picture it should at least track it, so we'll know whether the big picture is going up or down even if we don't know the size.

 

No-one getting it would be good - it would fizzle out in a couple of weeks then (or even every infected person infecting less than one other on average - once you've got to that stage you're past the worst of it and infections will decrease to, eventually, zero) - but I believe that the view is that simply isn't possible, hence the goal to keep the rate down low enough for the health services to handle.

[jcredfer]

1 hour ago, gordon s said:

 

You'll be fine Ian. Trump says it will all be over by Easter.....

 

Surely a misquote, what he meant was "It will be all over the USA by Easter".

 

Julian

[Nearholmer]

30 minutes ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

We can't know without testing. Korea (both North and South) have done far more testing.

Agreed.

 

What is desperately needed in the UK is randomised sampling of the population at large, on a large enough scale  to get an indication of how many of us have already had it and not noticed.

 

Personally, I’m sceptical about it having been widespread for a long while, because confirmed cases that couldn’t be traced very firmly back to individuals importing it didn’t arise until quite late-on. If it had been here, spreading widely and undetected, surely apparently random severe cases would have occurred earlier ...... not many if it is of lower “punch” than has been assumed, but the odd one here and there.

 

On the other hand, maybe the odd severe case, perhaps even the odd fatal case, was occurring, and they simply weren’t recognised, perhaps being lumped-in as ‘complications of seasonal flu.’

 

My MiL had two or three weeks of some lurgy that caused, among other things, a persistent cough and mild pneumonia, in late Jan/early Feb. She’s a very active person in her sixties, and shook it off after about 2-3 weeks, but I have wondered more recently ........ thinking back, the symptoms were awfully like what is being described now.

 

 

[Reorte]

3 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

My MiL had two or three weeks of some lurgy that caused, among other things, a persistent cough and mild pneumonia, in late Jan/early Feb. She’s a very active person in her sixties, and shook it off after about 2-3 weeks, but I have wondered more recently ........ thinking back, the symptoms were awfully like what is being described now.

 

Similarly both my parents (70) were knocked out by something just before Christmas, my mum more so than my dad. But I'd be more inclined to suspect that that was ordinary seasonal flu, that'll have been going around as it does every year regardless.

 

The ability to do widespread testing, both of the virus directly and of antibodies really would be a godsend though.

Edited March 25, 2020 by Reorte

[Joseph_Pestell]

3 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

Agreed.

 

What is desperately needed in the UK is randomised sampling of the population at large, on a large enough scale  to get an indication of how many of us have already had it and not noticed.

 

Personally, I’m sceptical about it having been widespread for a long while, because confirmed cases that couldn’t be traced very firmly back to individuals importing it didn’t arise until quite late-on. If it had been here, spreading widely and undetected, surely apparently random severe cases would have occurred earlier ...... not many if it is of lower “punch” than has been assumed, but the odd one here and there.

 

On the other hand, maybe the odd severe case, perhaps even the odd fatal case, was occurring, and they simply weren’t recognised, perhaps being lumped-in as ‘complications of seasonal flu.’

 

My MiL had two or three weeks of some lurgy that caused, among other things, a persistent cough and mild pneumonia, in late Jan/early Feb. She’s a very active person in her sixties, and shook it off after about 2-3 weeks, but I have wondered more recently ........ thinking back, the symptoms were awfully like what is being described now.

 

 

 

We don't know how long it was about in Wuhan before it was identified by the unfortunate doctor there.

 

Given that many people are asymptomatic, it could have easily been a month earlier than previously thought. The consequences of that, in terms of spread of the virus, would be immense and could explain why we are seeing a downturn earlier than expected.

 

Your idea of a randomised sampling of the general population is very sound.

[Reorte]

There's quite a bit of talk about construction at the moment - on my lunch break walk I passed a couple of builders having quite a heating bicker with each other as they were trying to lift something and stay away from each other at the same time.

[rocor]

2 hours ago, jjb1970 said:

Being reported via a few news channels:

 

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coronavirus/coronavirus-may-have-infected-half-of-uk-population-—-oxford-study/ar-BB11DVwS?ocid=spartanntp

 

No idea whether this is better or worse than the Imperial modelling as I haven't looked at the models of either. 

 

 

Saw the reference to Imperial modelling, and momentarily thought, S Scale. 

[bourneagain]

2 hours ago, jcredfer said:

 

Surely a misquote, what he meant was "It will be all over the USA by Easter".

 

Julian

Reminds me of that famous quote almost at the end of the 1966 world cup.

[bourneagain]

3 hours ago, gordon s said:

 

You'll be fine Ian. Trump says it will all be over by Easter.....

Didn’t they say something along the same lines at the beginning of WW1? But it lasted another 4 years!

[Reorte]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/25/uk-coronavirus-mass-home-testing-to-be-made-available-within-days

 

Quick and simple and mass-produced testing may be almost here. This might be exactly what we need.

Edited March 25, 2020 by Reorte

[maico]

Some more positive news from the latest Imperial Collage modelling.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/nhs-now-likely-to-cope-with-coronavirus-says-key-scientist-rn5m6nggk

[MJI]

How about vacuum manufacturers?

 

https://www.gtech.co.uk/ventilators

[Joseph_Pestell]

13 minutes ago, MJI said:

How about vacuum manufacturers?

 

https://www.gtech.co.uk/ventilators

GTECH's efforts to invent a new, very simple ventilator, was featured on our TV Regional News a couple of days ago. Great work, not just now but for the future of medicine in less developed countries.

The CEO had his sleeves rolled up and was clearly enjoying a spell back in the workshop. Definite candidate for the next awards in my view.

[jjb1970]

One thing a crisis does is focus minds on what is actually needed as opposed to what customers and manufacturers considered necessary in happier times. Like the liberty ships, wartime emergency program destroyers and corvettes, they would have been derided in peacetime but they did the job they were needed to do. With ventilators we need ventilators that work and will keep people alive,  if that means "austerity " ventilators that the manufacturers and health agencies wouldn't normally touch then so be it as long as they work.

[NIK]

On 24/03/2020 at 01:41, brian777999 said:

In Australia, bottle shops have been classified as ''essential to society'' and are to remain open. I was very surprised at this.  Is it the same in the UK ?

Hi, 

 

Its been reported on our state broadcaster that UK off-licenses (which may be the pom equivalent of bottle shops) have now been allowed to re-open (assuming the owner hasn't drunk the stock).

 

Not sure if they have yet allowed people to leave their homes to shop for alcohol.

I was using beer to get me to sleep even before COVID19.

 

Take care.

 

Nick

[Legend]

34 minutes ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

GTECH's efforts to invent a new, very simple ventilator, was featured on our TV Regional News a couple of days ago. Great work, not just now but for the future of medicine in less developed countries.

The CEO had his sleeves rolled up and was clearly enjoying a spell back in the workshop. Definite candidate for the next awards in my view.

 

Another good news story . This guy is saving lives . Good for him!   OBE MBE whatever , give him it .

[Gwiwer]

33 minutes ago, NIK said:

On 24/03/2020 at 01:41, brian777999 said:

In Australia, bottle shops have been classified as ''essential to society'' and are to remain open. I was very surprised at this.  Is it the same in the UK ?

Hi, 

 

Its been reported on our state broadcaster that UK off-licenses (which may be the pom equivalent of bottle shops) have now been allowed to re-open

 

Bottle Shops (Bottle-o's to many folk) and Off-Licences (Offy's) are one and the same in essence.  Some Australian ones reflect societal differences and are massive drive-thru affairs with people loading their trailers and utes in one hit.  

 

At least two major Australian chains have now limited purchases of alcohol but the limits also reflect those societal differences.  18 bottles of wine per person per day is not what I would call a "limit".  That goes some way towards illustrating the national alcoholism problem faced by Australia which is far more serious than in the UK.  

 

Local off-licences in the UK have mostly closed for the duration.  Supermarket licensed sections never closed.  There is no shortage of alcohol but the individual retailers, or their controlling chains, will have made decisions bearing in mind their duty of care to staff and customers as to whether they open / reopen or remain closed.  

 

And another difference - in the UK you buy your alcohol in with your general shopping in a supermarket.  In Australia you have to go through the separate alcohol register - usually set up as a shop within a shop.  In the UK the till operator can be under 18 and will need to call a supervisor to oversee an alcohol purchase because they are too young to sell it (the same with some other age-restricted items); in Australia they would have to be 18+ to even work there.  

[JeremyC]

6 hours ago, gordon s said:

 

You'll be fine Ian. Trump says it will all be over by Easter.....

Yes, but like "the war will be over by Christmas", he omitted to say which Easter!

[Nearholmer]

I genuinely feel very sorry for people in the USA.

There will doubtless be questions about capability and responsiveness later, but at least the NHS is unarguably universal, and sufficiently centralised to be coordinated, and the government seems full galvanised, all of which are comforting in tough times.

 

What we can see of the US looks scarily dysfunctional

 

Maybe we’re getting biased reporting (somehow, I don’t think so), and maybe the US will do that ‘sudden awakening’ thing that it is capable of, throwing all of its huge resources at the problem and cracking it, but it surely doesn’t look comforting at the moment.

 

 

[jjb1970]

Something to keep in mind about the USA is it is a federal country and states have a lot of autonomy. Many of the things we'd look to Westminster to lead on are state issues and most American's I know want to keep things that way. For example, America is regularly named and shamed on GHG issues yet California is way ahead of almost anywhere else and many states are actively promoting renewable energy so the actual situation can be very different to what we might think is only watching the federal government.

[boxbrownie]

1 hour ago, Legend said:

 

Another good news story . This guy is saving lives . Good for him!   OBE MBE whatever , give him it .

We have two of his “hoovers” and for a good few years they have been better than the Bosch equivalent we have, seems he is a proper engineer.