Corona-virus - Impact of the Health Situation worldwide

[Ozexpatriate]

5 minutes ago, black and decker boy said:

... their unusual statistics and low death rate are a result of very widespread community testing ...

Meanwhile officials in the US are still saying "not everyone needs to be tested".

[APOLLO]

 

Brit15

[LBRJ]

42 minutes ago, jcredfer said:

 

What surprises me is the  sheer number, of those elected to support / protect their electorate, who manage to miss / avoid the clear known facts, in preference to attempting to imagine that keeping those facts quiet, might make them go away.....  at the cost of blood on their hands!!

 

Other polite comment is beyond my capabilities of self control.

 

Julian

 

 

Which is part of the reason why one could say that our own dear Government are not making the worst fist of it possible.

Lets hope they keep on  relying on the words and advice of those who actually know what they are talking about (as far as anyone can know about a totally new situation)

[Metr0Land]

43 minutes ago, black and decker boy said:

Germany have suggested their unusual statistics and low death rate are a result of very widespread community testing which started quite early too

 

 

 

One of the things that might be looked at if the dust ever settles is just how Germany managed to test so many people so quickly.  They were not only streets ahead of us, but as far as I can see streets ahead of any nation.

 

Just how did they do it so quickly with such a new virus?

[LBRJ]

5 hours ago, jjb1970 said:

If the virus was suppressed by to heat we might not have expected to see outbreaks in South East Asia where the temperatures are warm year round (at times very warm).

 

 

Is it not the differential between warm an cold that makes the difference?

[robert17649]

1 hour ago, Oldddudders said:

Sadly familiar long before any of us had heard of Covid-19. There are places where ambulance crews will often be attacked, and overt racism has been enjoying a revival since a certain referendum. In every society there will be those who do not accept its values. But even in this thread, people are questioning the Government's right to do this or do that - use of drones for example. For many, life has become such a stroll in the park that anything that impinges on their freedom to do as they wish is regarded with suspicion - and to be resisted if necessary. Entitlement is today's watchword. 

More and more I find myself agreeing with you I once stopped to assist at an accident to be warned off by an aggressive driver even though I had iD confirming my medical quals and status because he had a first aid cert from the st johns ambulance and I have nothing against them. At the time I was An A&E registrar with aCLS and ATLs certification. later the gent was breathalysed and was OTL big time

[friscopete]

16 minutes ago, Metr0Land said:

 

One of the things that might be looked at if the dust ever settles is just how Germany managed to test so many people so quickly.  They were not only streets ahead of us, but as far as I can see streets ahead of any nation.

 

Just how did they do it so quickly with such a new virus?

They saw Italy and  were warned of what was coming if they didnt test .We didnt test ..........

[jcredfer]

10 minutes ago, LBRJ said:

 

 

Is it not the differential between warm an cold that makes the difference?

I'm sorry, I don't quite understand what the differential between which warm and cold you are identifying, which might make the difference.

 

Julian

 

[LBRJ]

Just now, jcredfer said:

I'm sorry, I don't quite understand what the differential between which warm and cold you are identifying, which might make the difference.

 

Julian

 

The weather and / or climatic changes we have in the temperate zones compared to places like SE Asia.

 

[LBRJ]

 A question I have recently wondered about...

When did the Covid 19 virus first appear in Europe / UK?

 

I am only asking because after talking to a friend earlier today (on the phone of course) he reminded me that  I had something that now seems to have been remarkably similar to a fairly mild dose round about Christmas time.

 

A fever, cough (not that thats too unusual cos I smoke) and a feeling of general malaise strong enough that I spent nearly all of  the traditional Xmas hols either in bed asleep, or very close to it.....

 

[jcredfer]

3 minutes ago, LBRJ said:

The weather and / or climatic changes we have in the temperate zones compared to places like SE Asia.

 

Indeed, the climate differences between the wide range of countries {and therefore climates} would have been taken into account.  My question was what Covid-19 differential you might be referring to, as a result of this range of climates.

 

Julian

 

[LBRJ]

2 minutes ago, jcredfer said:

Indeed, the climate differences between the wide range of countries {and therefore climates} would have been taken into account.  My question was what Covid-19 differential you might be referring to, as a result of this range of climates.

 

Julian

 

 

The point someone made that the fact that Covid 19 is alive and well in SE Asia implied that it was warmweather resistant.

My point was to aks whether the virus (as many things) acclimatised to its environment, and a change in the temperature made  it harder to "survive" 

[jjb1970]

If the virus has jumped from china in winter to countries like Singapore and Malaysia that would indicate that it can survive big climate swings.

[jcredfer]

6 minutes ago, LBRJ said:

 

The point someone made that the fact that Covid 19 is alive and well in SE Asia implied that it was warmweather resistant.

My point was to aks whether the virus (as many things) acclimatised to its environment, and a change in the temperature made  it harder to "survive" 

Given that Covid-19 has only been around for a few months, the human recipient has not yet developed any "pack" resistance / immunity, so temperature, or climate, which may well eventually be relevant factors, but are not yet so influential as the lack of time for human adaptive capability.  This is the big worry for world governments, presented with the new virus, which can effect at will, whilst they have no remedy, except keeping people apart, far enough for the virus to fail to make the distance of transit between hosts.

 

Julian

[LBRJ]

9 minutes ago, jjb1970 said:

If the virus has jumped from china in winter to countries like Singapore and Malaysia that would indicate that it can survive big climate swings.

 

I was asking not contesting.

[Reorte]

44 minutes ago, friscopete said:

They saw Italy and  were warned of what was coming if they didnt test .We didnt test ..........

 

We didn't or couldn't? Testing capacity is finite. Maybe it's a valid criticism that we haven't been expanding it fast enough or maybe it simply isn't possible to expand it any faster, I don't know.

[lapford34102]

My point was to aks whether the virus (as many things) acclimatised to its environment, and a change in the temperature made  it harder to "survive" 

 

I posted back on page 90 a link to a BBC article regarding the possible effect of climate

HTH

Stu

 

Edited March 28, 2020 by lapford34102
Quote didn't appear

[Reorte]

35 minutes ago, LBRJ said:

 A question I have recently wondered about...

When did the Covid 19 virus first appear in Europe / UK?

 

I am only asking because after talking to a friend earlier today (on the phone of course) he reminded me that  I had something that now seems to have been remarkably similar to a fairly mild dose round about Christmas time.

 

A fever, cough (not that thats too unusual cos I smoke) and a feeling of general malaise strong enough that I spent nearly all of  the traditional Xmas hols either in bed asleep, or very close to it.....

 

 

My parents were hit pretty hard by something just before Christmas (my mum was still a bit on and off ropey over Christmas). However that is also ordinary seasonal flu time so there will probably have been lots of cases of ordinary flu shortly before Covid19 arrived here.

[Liam]

25 minutes ago, jjb1970 said:

If the virus has jumped from china in winter to countries like Singapore and Malaysia that would indicate that it can survive big climate swings.

Perhaps, but as of today Malaysia has 2,320 cases, and 27 death, and when here in the UK we had a similar number of infections the death toll was around 100, so warmer weather, if it doesn’t delay the spread of the virus, may lead it to mutate into a less fatal virus. 
 

I’ve used this news article here, and the graph by Peng Wu, a student at Leeds who everyday converts the latest figures from the Department of Health & Social Care into a graph.

 

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/malaysia-new-covid-19-cases-mar-28-12585940

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1243901924786790400

[Andy Hayter]

We have to be very careful comparing infection rates and death rates between countries.

 

Firstly the measurements can be very different between countries depending on whether you measure solely hospital admissions or all cases.  Do you proactively go out and test populations, test close contacts or just hospital admissions?   This impacts on how quickly victims can be identified, isolated and where necessary treated.  What resources are available for treating victims?  One reason I have seen for the relatively low death rate in Germany ( and probably why they are now offering beds to Italian victims) is that they have a very high proportion of ITU beds and ventilators - and I assume staff to man them.

 

What we can say is that Malaysia  is now suffering a marked increase in infections despite having kept a tight hold on the disease in the early stages.  At the moment the number of cases is not swamping their ability to provide high level treatment.

[Dava]

UK Govt figures on COVID19 deaths as well as infections are not to be relied on and may well be higher than reported. There are reports that only hospital deaths are included. Death is in the community generally reported as pneumonia or other cause, not COVID19.

 

There is also a media ploy attributed to Cummings to argue that, as 'most COVID19 deaths would have occurred anyway within 24 months, the lockdown can be relaxed'. This is specious  but Sky News have already started to pick up on it.

 

It is necessary to be very sceptical about what is reported.

 

Dava

[maico]

On 28/03/2020 at 06:34, Ryde-on-time said:

Just wondered where your figures came from as the latest data released from the government yesterday gives the number who have sadly dies as 759?

 

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public

 

Worldometer updates the UK figures late afternoon and the French and Italian early evening. US figures seem to updated hourly or so. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Edited March 29, 2020 by maico

[maico]

24 minutes ago, Dava said:

UK Govt figures on COVID19 deaths as well as infections are not to be relied on and may well be higher than reported. There are reports that only hospital deaths are included. Death is in the community generally reported as pneumonia or other cause, not COVID19.

 

 

 

Dava

 

Unlikely given all autopsies in the UK test for COVID-19.

[EddieB]

26 minutes ago, Dava said:

 

It is necessary to be very sceptical about what is reported.

 

Seeking to attribute manipulation or spin to the figures is unnecessary and does no one any good.  All I will comment is that I noticed the number of fatalities started to be prefixed by the phrase “at least” (began on LBC Radio a couple of days ago), which is quite worrying.

 

1 hour ago, Nearholmer said:

Yet more doomy numbers - I took what I'd done earlier, and attempted to calculate possible UK fatalities. 

 

Kevin, I know you mean well, but please be cautious when presenting your findings.  These figures largely confirm what was painfully obvious at the time the Government announced its first “strategy”.  As you conclude, it will be at least another two weeks before any impact of the “stay home” policy will start to be felt.

[Dava]

52 minutes ago, maico said:

 

Unlikely given all autopsies in the UK test for COVID-19.

 

Autopsies are not performed on on all deaths and increasingly will not be.