Corona-virus - Impact of the Health Situation worldwide

[Platform 1]

Rather like telephone sanitisers and hairdressers on the B Ark.

 

[teaky]

Wakefield has been touring the US for a while now and regularly crops up at alt med snake oil events plus pre-election and inaguration parties for the orange one.

[Baby Deltic]

[Oldddudders]

According to this French website, https://www.lci.fr/fil-info/ which is providing detailed daily updates on the virus, the Fed seems to be forecasting up to 47 million US jobs are under threat. If that happens, it will be 32% unemployment, up from 3.5% in February. The fallout from that will not be good for anyone. 

[Gwiwer]

5 minutes ago, Oldddudders said:

According to this French website, https://www.lci.fr/fil-info/ which is providing detailed daily updates on the virus, the Fed seems to be forecasting up to 47 million US jobs are under threat. If that happens, it will be 32% unemployment, up from 3.5% in February. The fallout from that will not be good for anyone. 

 

Meanwhile despite an upturn in mortality in the past 24 hours the Downing Street team was making what they could of the news tonight and saying publicly what anyone following the statistics and trends is beginning to see.  That the UK rates of infection and mortality may be slowing.  Already.  And on that point there was an encouraging comment to the effect that the current regime is working and the effects are already being seen.  

[Oldddudders]

If the data on this page is to be believed https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14 then today's new cases are only about as many as five days ago. Never mind that the intervening days showed fewer. This is promising. The deaths will continue to rise simply because death always lags diagnosis by at least a few days, while the medics do their best. 

[John Tomlinson]

17 minutes ago, Oldddudders said:

According to this French website, https://www.lci.fr/fil-info/ which is providing detailed daily updates on the virus, the Fed seems to be forecasting up to 47 million US jobs are under threat. If that happens, it will be 32% unemployment, up from 3.5% in February. The fallout from that will not be good for anyone. 

I seem to remember from somewhere the statistic that in the US a 1% rise in unemployment correlated with with an increase of around 40,000 deaths per annum, due presumably to poverty, rising infant mortality etc. I wonder if this rings any bells with anyone else. As you say, not good at all.

 

On the UK stats from today I understand that the leap in mortality reported is in part due to a different way of doing the numbers, apparently up to yesterday the number was for deaths in hospital only attributable to Covid-19, now they are bringing in all deaths from cause, with the added complication that some home deaths may be several days behind in reporting. Life's not simple for us amateur forecasters!

 

John.

Edited March 31, 2020 by John Tomlinson
typo

[Reorte]

1 minute ago, Oldddudders said:

If the data on this page is to be believed https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14 then today's new cases are only about as many as five days ago. Never mind that the intervening days showed fewer. This is promising. The deaths will continue to rise simply because death always lags diagnosis by at least a few days, while the medics do their best. 

 

I'd like them to be at around the same level for a week before I feel reasonably confident in saying we've reached peak infection rate but it certainly looks promising.

[TheQ]

As someone susceptible to malignant hyperpyrexia under anesthesia,  I suspect a Cpap machine will be much more use to me than a ventilator which requires being put into a coma.  

 

The above condition is not on the list of self isolate conditions because it's rare,  if they found everyone in the UK with it the estimate is there would only be about 1000.

 

I do wonder how many other unlisted conditions should be self isolating.

[Reorte]

1 minute ago, TheQ said:

I do wonder how many other unlisted conditions should be self isolating.

 

It's one of those areas where people need to realise that it's not possible to list everything and should therefore see the underlying message and go with that (just realised that that might read as a personal criticism, it's a general point in reply, not one directed at you personally).

[robert17649]

SWMBO wont let me go out as I'm nearly 71 with an interesting medical history I feel quite guilty but we are down to once a week and online stuff .I bought a hair strimmer which about sums it up

[AY Mod]

9 minutes ago, robert17649 said:

hair strimmer

 

This I must see, video footage please!

[Dunsignalling]

53 minutes ago, Reorte said:

 

I'd like them to be at around the same level for a week before I feel reasonably confident in saying we've reached peak infection rate but it certainly looks promising.

I think I saw somewhere that HMG's judgment of having passed the peak will be dependent on two consecutive weeks level or falling.

 

John

 

 

[Nearholmer]

58 minutes ago, John Tomlinson said:

Life's not simple for us amateur forecasters!

Indeed not, but I’d say that there seems to be space for very, very, very, very cautious optimism.

 

The numbers I’m getting now are at the very bottom-end of the range of the credible that I got when I tested sensitivity to time lag in SD and effectiveness of SD.

 

If this comes good, the exit strategy will have to be stunningly good, because such a small % of the population will have acquired immunity.

[Andy Hayter]

5 hours ago, Gwiwer said:

 

Asthma is one of the listed underlying conditions which should give reason to self-isolate for a 12-week period.  A good friend is 22 and a severe asthmatic; naturally she is worried sick about what might happen if she went down with the virus.  She has had two extended stays in hospital in the past two years due to her ongoing breathing difficulties.

 

The key here is severe asthma - mild asthmatics have not yet been identified as a 3 month self exclusion group.  That of course may prove to have been a failure/error/oversight.

[Baby Deltic]

[Ramblin Rich]

Sorry I'm very late coming to this.

Has anyone else linked to the FT tracker? I have a certain morbid fascination with the graphs.

https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

This plots the cases on a logarithmic scale, so if the cases are rising exponentially (doubling every 'x' days) it gives a straight line graph. The slope of the graph relates to the rate of doubling and the graphs have dotted lines showing doubling every day, 2 days, 3 days, 1 week. If the rate of growth is slowing, the line will start to curve down away from straight; if the rate is increasing, the line begins curving upward. Different countries (and certain badly affected areas) are plotted for comparison. You really want a near horizontal line to show no increase in cases.

In the UK as a whole, there is a hint that the line for total cases is easing down away from doubling every 3 days, but the increase in number of deaths is not really changing yet.

I do fear for the US as it's growth rate and total numbers are well above others at this stage.

 

[Mark Saunders]

6 hours ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

 

Please, name and shame. I am not a cruise ship person but I would certainly campaign for a boycott of any cruise company that gives Andrew Wakefield a platform.

given the number of cruise ships that are not allowed to dock would you consider joining one currently or in the near future?

[Nearholmer]

There are quite a few log plots around, and they do make it easier to see what is going-on.

 

The best ones plot all countries from a common starting point, say 100 cases, and I think the government scientist showed such a plot at the 1700 briefing today.

 

To be really illustrative, the figures really need to be per capita, because comparing the UK (67M people) with the US (340M people) in raw numbers isn’t really valid.

[Ramblin Rich]

3 minutes ago, Mark Saunders said:

given the number of cruise ships that are not allowed to dock would you consider joining one currently or in the near future?

Never. Never before, never after. Wouldn't touch with a barge pole.

[Rugd1022]

[Reorte]

37 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

I think I saw somewhere that HMG's judgment of having passed the peak will be dependent on two consecutive weeks level or falling.

 

Makes sense. One week I'd feel confident that it was but two weeks for actually making plans or decisions based on it sounds reasonable.

[Mark Saunders]

1 minute ago, Ramblin Rich said:

Never. Never before, never after. Wouldn't touch with a barge pole.

can’t find any Bargepoles currently there must be a shortage of them!

 

[Reorte]

2 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

To be really illustrative, the figures really need to be per capita, because comparing the UK (67M people) with the US (340M people) in raw numbers isn’t really valid.

 

There are so many factors involved that it's really hard to make valid comparisons at all. Certainly an initial spread will not really be affected by the overall population, that only comes into play once it is pretty widespread, so the initial stages will probably be quite different. Population density probably plays a big part in the speed of spreading too. And in any case every country is measuring things differently anyway.

[Nearholmer]

Yes, and if, for instance, the UK testing regime changes, that will complexificate things.

 

The Chinese way of counting changed twice, but at least the better graphs mark the change points!