Corona-virus - Impact of the Health Situation worldwide

[Rugd1022]

[Neil]

Further to testing, both Robert Peston (ITV) on twitter and Norman Smith (BBC) one o'clock news have reported that the governments claim that testing is being held back because of insufficient supplies of reagents doesn't hold water. The Norman Smith piece starts at 8:20.

[Nearholmer]

Seems to be a complex topic, because the next guy in the twitter feed advances what reads like a knowledgeably-based reason why the governments statement may be correct.
 

[jjb1970]

There are probably two kinds of people in the world, those who understand the concept of confirmation bias and who acknowledge that they suffer from it, and those in denial of the concept. People gravitate towards media sources that tend to reinforce their existing world view and political sensibilities. Many of those who deride certain papers (such as the Daily Mail, Guardian) tend to be oblivious to the fact that others have exactly the same feelings towards papers they read. Ditto, what is propaganda is news to some, one persons news might be another’s tin foil hat material.

 

I have to admit I find the media reporting of the current situation disappointing. We have endless rolling news trying to fill 24 hours with what is actually not a great deal of material (certainly not that much actual news or analysis) yet very little effort to look beyond headlines. The best example is the daily head count for people dying, it has almost become a sort of grotesque curtain raiser to wave the latest mortality figures in the air with near glee. How many stories are trying to look beyond raw figures, Italy published a report a couple of weeks ago which broke down the Italian figures and gave some good indications why their headline figure is so high, it was reported in the media but I’m not sure many really picked up the story properly and we are still seeing deaths of people with COVID implicitly presented as a running total of people of deaths from COVID. A few days ago I saw stories that Imperial were claiming without lockdown COVID would kill 40 million, the figure was just accepted in the stories I saw yet I have reservations about the Imperial modelling and not many in the media are pushing Imperial to explain the basis of their claims. The Oxford modelling was reported but few really seemed to ask the obvious question – what is the basis of the two models that give such different results and is either of them right? Then there is the glee in sneering at Donald Trump and America which might have a bit more force if other countries had been perfect in their response, you don’t have to pick very far below the surface to find some unpleasant attitudes towards China and Chinese people (and I’m not talking about those lumped by some into the lower strata of society), I honestly find it a mess. And then there is the post 9-11 culture of you’re either with the program or against us. Anyone questioning the restrictions on freedom seems to be being marginalized as a tin foil hat wearing crank (I quite liked to be in agreement with people I might not always be agreeing for once - https://www.lawgazette.co.uk/law/lawyers-echo-sumptions-police-state-warning/5103700.article ). I find something really rather insidious about a lot of it.

[boxbrownie]

2 hours ago, robert17649 said:

I get the impression that there is a slight oddness about testing.

 

The purpose is to identify the victim , trace contacts isolate and treat. This approach which has been used effectively in the smallpox outbreak in the70's in Birmingham, and for goodness sake at least twice in Uganda, both events when I lived there, and as a medical student in the 70's. This process was abandoned pretty quickly in this out break, very possibly as a blind side to the fact that there were not enough testing kits available.

 

now testing is just a question of who should be off work or who can go back when self isolating. This is important but a bit like pig weighing, but there are about 25% of NHS staff off for self isolation or sick untested and undiagnosed, who should be tested yesterday.

 

I think that we owe them that at least

They are, my Son was tested yesterday (day after he got back from a week off) and two of his colleagues were tested on Monday.......apparently there will be a lot more in his hospital this week......oh yes and the nurses have all got the appropriate PPE but the Doctors are still awaiting theirs with only one full outfit available presently, he is not taking any chances on our orders.....well our daughter in laws orders really!

[Reorte]

8 minutes ago, jjb1970 said:

There are probably two kinds of people in the world, those who understand the concept of confirmation bias and who acknowledge that they suffer from it, and those in denial of the concept. People gravitate towards media sources that tend to reinforce their existing world view and political sensibilities...

(small part quoted just to illustrate the post I'm replying to)

 

I couldn't agree more strongly with this post, which I think really digs into the heart of reporting and attitudes around this issue.

[boxbrownie]

24 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

Seems to be a complex topic, 
 

At only 117 pages so far I cannot imagine what you mean........if only the Government had access to the information within this thread 

[robert17649]

If you ask 117 lawyers or doctors their opinion about something you will get234 answers and they will all be different

[chris p bacon]

2 minutes ago, robert17649 said:

If you ask 117 lawyers or doctors their opinion about something you will get 234 answers

 

And a very large bill.

[Nearholmer]

1 hour ago, jjb1970 said:

Anyone questioning the restrictions on freedom seems to be being marginalized as a tin foil hat wearing crank

Where? By whom? 
 

What I’ve observed over the past few days is some ploddish coppers overstep the mark, followed by a strong steer towards sensiblenesses from their bosses, and few idiots flouting the legal limits of SD, and in the most extreme cases getting fined or imprisoned for it by the courts.

 

The crazy plods, and the crazy flouters are the outliers.

 

In the middle, a great stodge of sensible police officers, and sensible citizens, all negotiating their way through exceptionally difficult times.

 

Yes, mega important to reset to normal, repeal the ‘lockdown’ laws, return to normal policing as fast as possible when circumstance permits (remember how it all went wrong during and after the miner’s strike?) etc etc, but it seems a bit soon to get exercised about the loss of our liberties yet. Most people are more concerned about the loss of their loved ones.

 

As for the difference between the guidance and the law: the law normally acts as a fence at the outer-edge of social conventions, the problem is that we didn’t have a set of social conventions suitable to ensure collective wellbeing during a very-threatening pandemic, so we have government guidance instead.

 

Social conventions are ‘self policing’, social pressures keep most of the order, and until the government guidance “embeds”, and become social conventions, or until society tacitly decides that actually it wants to establish some other set of ‘pandemic conventions’ (which could happen .... the country could ‘wave two fingers’ at the guidance as currently set), there is bound to be a bit of a settling-down period.

 

 

 

Edited April 1, 2020 by Nearholmer

[Oldddudders]

The NY Times has concluded that 40% of renters in that city will struggle to pay their rent today, even more so in a month's time. And not all the landlords will be rich people, either. Plus their mayor seems to be in ongoing frustrated dialogue with Trump.

[Matt C]

4 hours ago, Lantavian said:

 

So how do you get your information? How do you find your sources, and how do you decide whether they are trustworthy?

 

I consult the tea leaves. . . Just as much chance of being right and zero b¥!!$&!t

[Oldddudders]

3 minutes ago, Mattc6911 said:

 

I consult the tea leaves. . . Just as much chance of being right and zero b¥!!$&!t

And, actually, if your reading proves to be awfully wrong, no-one else will contract the virus as a result. This is the social section of a model railway forum. Those looking for absolute truth may be better advised to look elsewhere. 

[raymw]

3 hours ago, Lantavian said:

 

And your source for this allegation is?  Or are you relying on 56-year-old memories?

I am not relying on 56 year old detail memory as to which paper said what, however, at the time, I certainly assessed the situation with a few of my friends (they had different newspapers), and we definitely came to the conclusion I previously stated. I do not think there has been an improvement since then, of course you are entitled to think otherwise.

[raymw]

.

Edited April 1, 2020 by raymw
duplicated

[Nearholmer]

4 minutes ago, Oldddudders said:

Those looking for absolute truth may be better advised to look elsewhere. 

If any of us could find absolute truth, we really would be in a position to change the human condition.

 

I advise against watching the video message from Prince Charles. The poor chap looks and sounds really vexed by everything, tired, and generally rather fed-up. I think it might work better if we all sent him messages of hope, rather than the other way round.

[raymw]

3 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

If any of us could find absolute truth, we really would be in a position to change the human condition.

 

I advise against watching the video message from Prince Charles. The poor chap looks and sounds really vexed by everything, tired, and generally rather fed-up. I think it might work better if we all sent him messages of hope, rather than the other way round.

But just think of the field day the Roundheads would have, if he came across all chipper.

[Nearholmer]

I am a Roundhead, but I can still spot a chap who needs cheering-up.
 

[Rugd1022]

 

Edited April 1, 2020 by Rugd1022

[BigMal]

6 minutes ago, Rugd1022 said:

 

Sgt Pepper's Lonely Self-isolating Band

[NIK]

Hi,

 

I've been having a look at the graphs put up during the UKs government's TV coronavius briefing this evening.

 

There was concern that motor vehicle use had gone up yesterday and the graph shown showed various types of transport as a percentage. I just wanted to ask does anybody know as a percentage of what - the graph says percentage change and the lines for the various sub sets start around but not exactly 100% on the first day of the graph - the first of March. I guess they mean percentage estimated on a daily basis referenced to some set of figures.

 

Also is there anybody out there statistically minded who finds the graph shown for the Chinese deaths per day to be too smooth for the sample size per day?. Maybe someone possibly in a hurry has taken possibly sporadic reports of Chinese deaths and has applied a fitting algorithm and then displayed the resulting extra points on the graph rather than showing it as a smaller number of points joined by longer lines. It would be a bit like like during WWII Battle of Britain the UK newspapers reporting 14.5 Nazi bombers were shot down yesterday.

 

Take care.

 

Nick

[Nearholmer]

The transport one I read as % of typically daily use, or % of actual use on first day of counting.

 

The Tube data are dead-easy to source, because the ticketing system counts entries and exits to very high accuracy, it being a (nearly) fully gated system. I worked for the Tube for very many years, and we used to know our daily traffic patterns, leadings etc, and could track it very exactly.

 

The car one is probably done using ANPR cameras and an algorithm that checks numbers against DVLA data for vehicle-type, to filter out lorries and vans.

 

I agree about the China curve  - looks smoothed.
 

[maico]

Talking of autopsies, here's a German Doctor at work on suspected COVID-19 victims. I'm surprised that he is not wearing a N95 or FPP3 grade mask rather than a general issue tissue type. The rib cage requires considerable force to open up to inspect the lungs which are huge in size, hence the tools including chisels and spreader.

The virus must still be alive in the body? https://www.bild.de/bild-plus/regional/hamburg/hamburg-aktuell/koryphaee-prof-dr-klaus-pueschel-ich-untersuche-die-corona-leichen-69776182,view=conversionToLogin.bild.html

Edited April 1, 2020 by maico

[Nearholmer]

Now something simultaneously very sobering, and raising all sorts of questions about taste in an age of ‘phone cameras and social media.

 

There are photos ‘doing the rounds’ on the local community Facebook group (the one used to arrange fetes and PTA meetings etc) that my good lady belongs to, showing ambulances and a hearse attending a house in the area. The pictures are very obviously taken from the upper floor of a house nearby, and the account talks of a body-bag being carried out, and the undertaker’s staff being hosed-down in the street (they can be seen in the photos wearing “white boiler suits”) - thankfully whoever circulated didn’t include everything in the pictures.

 

Stuff like that makes the stats all too real.

 

[jcredfer]

7 minutes ago, NIK said:

Hi,

 

I've been having a look at the graphs put up during the UKs government's TV coronavius briefing this evening.

 

There was concern that motor vehicle use had gone up yesterday and the graph shown showed various types of transport as a percentage. I just wanted to ask does anybody know as a percentage of what - the graph says percentage change and the lines for the various sub sets start around but not exactly 100% on the first day of the graph - the first of March. I guess they mean percentage estimated on a daily basis referenced to some set of figures.

 

Also is there anybody out there statistically minded who finds the graph shown for the Chinese deaths per day to be too smooth for the sample size per day?. Maybe someone possibly in a hurry has taken possibly sporadic reports of Chinese deaths and has applied a fitting algorithm and then displayed the resulting extra points on the graph rather than showing it as a smaller number of points joined by longer lines. It would be a bit like like during WWII Battle of Britain the UK newspapers reporting 14.5 Nazi bombers were shot down yesterday.

 

Take care.

 

Nick

 

Bingo on reporting of statistics,  I'm sure you will know that there was no supplied answer to your questions.  The information you require to make any sense of the graphs, is simply omitted.....   not there.....   it's called bad / biased reporting, quite common amongst many of our media outputs and politicians.  To some extent it isn't very important, if all that is intended is some sort of a trend, but I prefer my trends to have bounds defined.

 

Agree with Nearholmer on the possible sources of the daily data for vehicles on the road, which is limited by the places the ANPR cameras are located, unlike Tube ticketing.  Certainly, I have travelled some distance in the period concerned and have seen no sign of any additional forms of traffic counting.  We have to assume some sort of start point for those percentages, but there are a number of options and the actual base is not stated.  As for the Chinese curves, they are rather dependant on what "they" decide those statistics will be...  your choice as to the amount of salt to take with them. 

 

Julian