Corona-virus - Impact of the Health Situation worldwide

[jonny777]

1 minute ago, Nearholmer said:

Jonny

 

There is a lot more detail of the subject covered in the link you posted in a report linked from the BBC website, all kosher stuff. Unfortunately, I can’t find it again among the huge amount of material!

 

It looks at the role of symptomless carriers in spreading the virus, which seems, in summary to be Very Important.

 

K

 

 

Thanks, I will have to dig the BBC article out somehow. 

 

I was wondering if there were two variations or strains of the virus, but they are all lumped as one when the testing is done? 

 

 

[Nearholmer]

This is a couple of weeks old, but should interest you https://www.newscientist.com/article/2236544-coronavirus-are-there-two-strains-and-is-one-more-deadly/

[jonny777]

Thanks, that is very interesting. 

 

[Ron Ron Ron]

86 & 85 year old in-laws were visited today by a community nurse and asked what their preferences were regarding falling victim to the Coronavirus. Apparently they both elected DNR and no ventilation.

Is this now policy?

 

FiL is in poor health following a stroke and other issues.

MiL is very fit and well for her age, but had breast cancer 10 years ago.

Mrs. Ron, who is medically trained, is quite upset at the moment.

 

This very issue has just been discussed on Radio 4 in the last 10 minutes.

 

Meanwhile, the partner of one of Mrs. Ron’s  friends has been taken to hospital late this afternoon, suffering from suspected COVID-19 .

We’re waiting for news.

 

 

.

 

 

[robmcg]

1 hour ago, 'CHARD said:

 

I think the nuance to this is the impact of something happening to you in a remote location.  Not only are you more at risk of a road accident the further you go, but any response from medics out in the wilds is stretching their scarce resource unnecessarily. 

 

FWIW NZ has total lock-down apart from health and essential service workers and supermarkets where under strict 2m separation you can buy things under supervision.

 

No aimless driving, no hunting, fishing, track-walking, in other words stay at home, only exercise near your home and 2m distancing from all others.  Shops are closed, as are most businesses. People who have lost jobs and income receive 80% for at least the next 4 weeks

 

Known infections are still in the hundreds from a population of about 5m . Exponential rise will occur, but the nature of the outbreak, we don't know yet. We are lucky to be relatively isolated, almost zero international flights now except freight, and we have pretty good hospital capacity with I think over a thousand intensive care beds if pushed, the aim being to flatten the curve.

 

Many questions still unanswered of course.

[melmerby]

Meanwhile as Nero Trump fiddles Rome America  Burns:

American deaths rise:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/27/trump-ventilators-coronavirus-cuomo-new-york

[jcredfer]

15 minutes ago, melmerby said:

Meanwhile as Nero Trump fiddles Rome America  Burns:

American deaths rise:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/27/trump-ventilators-coronavirus-cuomo-new-york

 

I wonder how many families will be forced to grieve as a direct result of this man's ignorance?

 

Julian

 

[Dunsignalling]

3 hours ago, boxbrownie said:

John, out of interest what area would this be?

Devon

[melmerby]

12 minutes ago, jcredfer said:

 

I wonder how many families will be forced to grieve as a direct result of this man's ignorance?

 

Julian

 

IMHO his approach is based on "saving" the US economy from wipe out and therefore saving his chances of re-election, nothing else matters.

From what we hear in the news from over there he is rapidly becoming public enemy No.1

[teaky]

He's not alone.  The president of Tanzania is refusing to close churches and mosques because that's where there is "true healing" !

 

Also "Last week, President John Magufuli ordered measures to be taken against those who spread fake information."  Beyond irony.

 

I'm not having a go at religion here, it is a crime to encourage people to cram together in this way.  Even the Vatican and Mecca are shut to keep people away.

[teaky]

In good news though...

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-52068520?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world&link_location=live-reporting-story

 

Another inspirational story.  Current events are bringing out the best and the worst in humans.

[maico]

On the 24th I listed the daily number of deaths in the EU countries and UK being just over a thousand for the first time. Some modelling was predicting a doubling of the daily total in 3 days. This has turned out to be accurate, today's total is 2237.

It's worth pointing out that the UK's total COVID-19 deaths per capita is still only 11 per million. Italy has the highest rate at 151 and Germany at low end with 4 deaths per million people.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[LBRJ]

36 minutes ago, melmerby said:

IMHO his approach is based on "saving" the US economy from wipe out and therefore saving his chances of re-election, nothing else matters.

From what we hear in the news from over there he is rapidly becoming public enemy No.1

 

Would that not be better off in the US Presidential Elections thread?

[boxbrownie]

47 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

Devon

Not heard of that here, then again Police are rarer than vegetarian Pasty on a trawler here 

Edited March 27, 2020 by boxbrownie

[Nearholmer]

11 minutes ago, maico said:

It's worth pointing out that the UK's total COVID-19 deaths per capita is still only 11 per million.

 

But, like Italy and other countries, concentrated in particular areas.

 

The bit I find rather chilling is that the UK curves of cases and fatalities map quite closely onto those for Italy, lagging by 14 days, so that one can almost "see the future" .......... I hope to goodness all this avoiding one another has the desired affect.

[Nearholmer]

58 minutes ago, melmerby said:

From what we hear in the news from over there he is rapidly becoming public enemy No.1

 

From what I read in the news, his "approval rating" has actually risen, to the point where 48% of respondents "approve of him" (46% don't; I'm not sure about the rest).

 

Because the USA is so physically large, and so diverse in perspectives, I'd guess that he's in with a more than even chance of keeping enough of the populace happy to fulfil his purpose of getting re-elected,

 

He doesn't need to please all of the people all of the time, in fact he seems to specialise in polarising all of the people all of the time, but always having a few more on his side than the opposite ....... that's the modern way to win elections, referenda, etc.

[Andy Hayter]

51 minutes ago, maico said:

On the 24th I listed the daily number of deaths in the EU countries and UK being just over a thousand for the first time. Some modelling was predicting a doubling of the daily total in 3 days. This has turned out to be accurate, today's total is 2237.

It's worth pointing out that the UK's total COVID-19 deaths per capita is still only 11 per million. Italy has the highest rate at 151 and Germany at low end with 4 deaths per million people.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The problem is that the UK is reckoned to be 14 days behind Italy in the development of the disease.  If the numbers do indeed double every 3 days, after 3 days the 11 deaths per million become 22, 44 after 6 days, 88 after 9 days 176 after 12 days.  Will we still be feeling so smug in comparing with Italy then? 

[jcredfer]

6 minutes ago, Andy Hayter said:

 

The problem is that the UK is reckoned to be 14 days behind Italy in the development of the disease.  If the numbers do indeed double every 3 days, after 3 days the 11 deaths per million become 22, 44 after 6 days, 88 after 9 days 176 after 12 days.  Will we still be feeling so smug in comparing with Italy then? 

 

I see no evidence of "smug", worried yes, but "smug" doesn't describe the reaction to the dreadful news for the Italian people.

 

Julian

 

[Nearholmer]

Italy does now seem to be achieving a reduction in the rate of increase, as a result of locking-down, and I think that the UK has locked-down earlier on the curve than they did (its a bit hard to tell, because the locking down processes were different), so hopefully we will see the curves slowly turning before the numbers get to where Italy is now. My back of a fag packet guess is that they will get to c170k confirmed cases, and we will get to c130k (using the present definition of confirmed cases, which amounts to hospitalised cases plus unwell VVIPs).

 

 

Edited March 27, 2020 by Nearholmer

[melmerby]

21 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

 

From what I read in the news, his "approval rating" has actually risen, to the point where 48% of respondents "approve of him" (46% don't; I'm not sure about the rest).

 

 

When was that taken?

Even some of the staunch republican politicians are questioning his response to CV, which really has been woeful.

I can see as more people get infected and there are more casualties his approval rating plummeting as the US is rapidly approaching an apocalypse unless something really serious is done very quickly and Trump appears not to care.

 

[Nearholmer]

They can't spell polarising, but here it is reported today in the NY Times https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/27/us/politics/trump-polls-coronavirus.html

 

 

 

Edited March 27, 2020 by Nearholmer

[melmerby]

1 minute ago, Nearholmer said:

They can't spell polarising, but here it is reported today in the NY Times https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/27/us/politics/trump-polls-coronavirus.html

 

 

 

That's absolutely incredible. There's no hope.

They must actually believe his "back to normal by Easter" claim.

That will soon unravel at the current case rate increase.

[Nearholmer]

38 minutes ago, melmerby said:

That will soon unravel at the current case rate increase.

 

Which said rate of increase is pretty similar to ours at the moment, and they are now, at last, beginning to throw everything they've got at it, which is a lot. 

 

I am very definitely not a Trump fan, but I don't think you can write him off yet.

[Reorte]

1 hour ago, Nearholmer said:

Italy does now seem to be achieving a reduction in the rate of increase, as a result of locking-down, and I think that the UK has locked-down earlier on the curve than they did (its a bit hard to tell, because the locking down processes were different), so hopefully we will see the curves slowly turning before the numbers get to where Italy is now. My back of a fag packet guess is that they will get to c170k confirmed cases, and we will get to c130k (using the present definition of confirmed cases, which amounts to hospitalised cases plus unwell VVIPs).

 

They keep talking about more testing being available shortly and that'll increase the number of confirmed cases even if it doesn't increase the number of actual cases, so just something to look out for there.

[Ryde-on-time]

8 hours ago, maico said:

On the 24th I listed the daily number of deaths in the EU countries and UK being just over a thousand for the first time. Some modelling was predicting a doubling of the daily total in 3 days. This has turned out to be accurate, today's total is 2237.

It's worth pointing out that the UK's total COVID-19 deaths per capita is still only 11 per million. Italy has the highest rate at 151 and Germany at low end with 4 deaths per million people.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Just wondered where your figures came from as the latest data released from the government yesterday gives the number who have sadly dies as 759?

 

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public