Corona-virus - Impact of the Health Situation worldwide

[Ozexpatriate]

7 hours ago, melmerby said:

They must actually believe his "back to normal by Easter" claim.

Not the people in urban areas in states with "stay at home" orders.

 

7 hours ago, melmerby said:

That will soon unravel at the current case rate increase.

Don't underestimate the power of cognitive dissonance. Many people treat politics like religion and willfully accept anything said by "their side". (Britain is no different in this regard - particularly with a certain unmentionable and divisive issue.)

 

Having said that, the US is far from monolithic. Don't listen to the man behind the podium. He equivocates on everything he says and frequently makes contradictory statements in consecutive sentences, which may or may not make the edited sound bites in news packages. And of course he constantly "ad libs" as he goes along. The daily briefings are surreal.

 

Reagan-era Speaker of the House Tip O'Neill famously said "all politics is local". The response to the COVID-19 crisis is local and managed by local politicians. States like California (population 39m) and New York (19m) are as large as many countries. The real influence of state governments is considerable.

[Dunsignalling]

9 hours ago, boxbrownie said:

Not heard of that here, then again Police are rarer than vegetarian Pasty on a trawler here 

They've been mostly active around the approaches to Exeter and Plymouth AIUI, but sporadic checks are being made elsewhere. High profile and well publicised on local TV for the deterrent effect.

 

A few odd caravanners heading your way have been turned back and the traffic cameras no doubt direct attention to such vehicles PDQ. Unbelievable they've still been trying it.

 

John

[robert17649]

I live just across the river from the Tamar bridge, and am surprised each day as I watch a steady stream of traffic crossing in both directions, including campers and caravans. Abit like the Ghost Train   "where do ee go? Where do ee come from?

[Dunsignalling]

1 hour ago, Lantavian said:

 

How do you know it hasn't?

 

Sky and the BBC have 24-hour TV news.

 

Then there's ITV news bulletins, C4 news, C5 news, plus the Today programme, World at One, PM and the World Tonight on Radio 4, and there's Five Live, etc, etc.

 

You might be right. But you can't really claim that something hasn't been mentioned on the national news unless you have monitored all of it.

 

 

And, most of the time, only the style of presentation changes.

 

In more normal circumstances the output of "24-hour News" stations usually seems to consist of about 30 minutes of material being continuously recycled, with not-especially-current snippets of nothing-very-interesting being inserted to make it less obvious.

 

I always get the impression the presenters are just trying to stay awake on the off-chance that a major item of hard news might kick off one night.

 

Right now, they are living off information emerging from different time-zones while those of us in the UK who can sleep, are doing so.

 

John

Edited March 28, 2020 by Dunsignalling

[Ron Ron Ron]

2 hours ago, Ryde-on-time said:

Just wondered where your figures came from as the latest data released from the government yesterday gives the number who have sadly dies as 759?

 

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public

I think he might have been referring to the total for countries in the EU and the U.K.

 

 

 

.

[F-UnitMad]

1 hour ago, Dunsignalling said:

A few odd caravanners heading your way

Are there any other type of caravanners..??  

 

Hat, coat, etc.....

[Oldddudders]

2 hours ago, Ryde-on-time said:

Just wondered where your figures came from as the latest data released from the government yesterday gives the number who have sadly dies as 759?

 

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public

Umm. My calculator says that 759 deaths in 67 million people is about 11 per million. 

[robert17649]

1 minute ago, Oldddudders said:

Umm. My calculator says that 759 deaths in 67 million people is about 11 per million. 

funny that I got much the saame result but ran out of fingers, and toes.

[Nearholmer]

The trouble with Maico’s post, I think might be that he elides between numbers of cases and numbers of fatalities, without making that crystal clear.

 

Anyway, counting bodies at this stage doesn’t really tell you very much - it’s more enlightening, in a rather bleak sort of way, to focus on case numbers, because that tells you where a country is “on the curve” (with limitations, given different testing regimes).

 

If you want an accurate UK misery count, this is the one that is updated daily https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ae5dda8f86814ae99dde905d2a9070ae
 

There are Wikipedia pages for each country with accurate data too.

 

You really need to look at the curves, though, rather than point data, to get any idea what is going on ....... our growth curves follow Italy’s very closely, day upon day, currently increasing 20-25% each day, so unless we are very lucky we will get to c18000 confirmed cases and c900 fatalities today.

 

 

Edited March 28, 2020 by Nearholmer

[boxbrownie]

1 hour ago, Dunsignalling said:

They've been mostly active around the approaches to Exeter and Plymouth AIUI, but sporadic checks are being made elsewhere. High profile and well publicised on local TV for the deterrent effect.

 

A few odd caravanners heading your way have been turned back and the traffic cameras no doubt direct attention to such vehicles PDQ. Unbelievable they've still been trying it.

 

John

On our local FB pages the holiday home renters and camp/holiday sites have been putting out warnings about holidays are all cancelled (and they are happy to give the same terms timings next year in exchange) and they have been getting real grief and quite nasty reactions from emmets that are still intent on coming down, it’s unbelievable as you say that people still want to come for a holiday.

 

[Oldddudders]

1 minute ago, boxbrownie said:

On our local FB pages the holiday home renters and camp/holiday sites have been putting out warnings about holidays are all cancelled (and they are happy to give the same terms timings next year in exchange) and they have been getting real grief and quite nasty reactions from emmets that are still intent on coming down, it’s unbelievable as you say that people still want to come for a holiday.

 

Not unbelievable. People want to isolate in more salubrious surroundings than their flat. Sherry has a holiday cabin on the edge of Dartmoor. Being holed up there, with rabbits nibbling the grass outside, might seem serene, but residents have been asked to move out. How this will affect those who illegally live there 365 I know not. Another brown envelope to the site manager, no doubt. I am just being told about Gill, English, but French resident with 6 kids and an estranged husband. She is currently on a campsite somewhere in England with her lover. It is closed but they are in residence. I have a pic of the lover scraping leaves off the pool, presumably this morning. 

[boxbrownie]

22 minutes ago, Oldddudders said:

Not unbelievable. People want to isolate in more salubrious surroundings than their flat. Sherry has a holiday cabin on the edge of Dartmoor. Being holed up there, with rabbits nibbling the grass outside, might seem serene, but residents have been asked to move out. How this will affect those who illegally live there 365 I know not. Another brown envelope to the site manager, no doubt. I am just being told about Gill, English, but French resident with 6 kids and an estranged husband. She is currently on a campsite somewhere in England with her lover. It is closed but they are in residence. I have a pic of the lover scraping leaves off the pool, presumably this morning. 

What’s unbelievable is they are still coming despite being told by their booked holiday let that it is closed, of course everybody wants to SI in comfort but if there’s no where to stay it is bit daft coming.

[Nearholmer]

Continuing to bang-on about doomy numbers, I think that they indicate that the effective capacity of the NHS will be exceeded within a week, even with the new capacity that they are bringing-on, and even with the benefits of SD hopefully beginning to show within that week, so that thereafter they will have to go on to the most distressing kind of triage for several weeks.

 

Lest members think I’m merely a back-bedroom scaremonger, listen to this chap https://www.channel4.com/news/i-have-no-doubt-at-all-that-we-will-be-unable-to-cope-professor-of-intensive-care-medicine-hugh-montgomery who is a professional.

 

 

 

Edited March 28, 2020 by Nearholmer

[Ozexpatriate]

26 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

our growth curves follow Italy’s very closely, day upon day, currently increasing 20-25% each day, so unless we are very lucky we will get to c18000 confirmed cases and c900 fatalities today.

Our local news has been reporting case and fatality count in Oregon, Washington and the nation to lead off the news. It's starting to feel like the daily casualty bulletin from the front.

 

Far back in this thread I linked to the State of Washington's weekly influenza update. (I'd link to it here, but the whole site appears to be down - it's probably in the middle of a weekly update here in the wee hours of Saturday morning.)

 

I noticed a few days ago that the number of COVID-19 deaths in Washington (now 175 with 3,700 cases), has exceeded influenza deaths over the whole 'flu season which started last October 1 (88* when I last checked) and  influenza cases are declining dramatically.

 

* from memory

[Baby Deltic]

For those of you not already wearing gloves as a precaution when filling up, here's another reason to wear them other than COVID-19!

[Oldddudders]

You are piling it on here, Lloyd.

[Baby Deltic]

32 minutes ago, Oldddudders said:

You are piling it on here, Lloyd.

I know. I've got an arse like a ton of chewed bubblegum. (If you are inferring that it is me in that picture)

Edited March 28, 2020 by Baby Deltic

[woodenhead]

I don't think tracking the number of fatalities helps any of us other than to worry - it is the effective capacity of the NHS to deal with the severe cases that has true bearing on how bad this will get because if it cannot cope then less people will recover.

 

The Government are very careful not to share this second statistic, they talk of coping, putting more beds in place, ordering ventilators and isolation to help keep numbers down.  The imagery of the new warehouse facilities full of beds shows what they expect the situation to look like in the next month, I wonder what the plan for May and June is.

 

I don't think we will all be down the pub breathing a big sigh of relief at Easter.

[Baby Deltic]

[Nearholmer]

Isn’t this over with?

 

You made your point many posts back, and I haven’t seen any sign of cause to reopen the wound.

[Nearholmer]

24 minutes ago, woodenhead said:

The Government are very careful not to share this second statistic

You can piece together the figures quite easily from official statements that have been made.

[Southernman46]

1 hour ago, Baby Deltic said:

For those of you not already wearing gloves as a precaution when filling up, here's another reason to wear them other than COVID-19!

Errrugh - that is disgusting on so many levels …………………. these people can barely understand or manage proper hygiene during normal circumstances …………………. 

 

RANT ON

 

A woman has just turned up to the bungalow over the road - to deliver a newspaper - a newspaper !!!!!! to the very old lady who lives there - which means she's been somewhere to buy it  - exposing herself and the vendor - these f#ckers have no idea what is happening outside their own stupid little world …………. pig-ignorant !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

and now someone else has just turned up to deliver a dog that she will walk later (this has happened a few times this week) …………….. un--believable …………………………….

 

RANT OFF

 

There have been a CONSIDERABLE number of expletives auto-deleted from the above - just blowing off some steam …….…………. no replies or comments required.

Edited March 28, 2020 by Southernman46

[Nearholmer]

3 minutes ago, Lantavian said:

It was the post about Diamond Princess.

The detail behind the report that Jonny linked to is readily discoverable by googling, and I thought he was very judicious in how he raised it.

 

https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.10.2000180

 

[Oldddudders]

If we thought that the virus might make even a tiny hole in the overpopulation of the planet, think again. There is a world shortage of condoms. The principal supplier in Malaysia has been closed for a while, China and other places have reduced output. One thing that isolated couples are likely to be enjoying is more time together, and these little items help that. If you have enough. Midwifery may not be going out of fashion in 9 month's time. And in certain parts of the community, and certain countries, the spread of disease will get a boost. All bad news. 

[Nearholmer]

Aren’t all our paranoias our own business, unless we are in positions of power sufficient to allow us to inflict them on everyone else? 
 

You can usually spot the next fellows paranoia and tune it out; I find that it’s factoring out my own that is difficult.