Corona-virus - Impact of the Health Situation worldwide

[Ozexpatriate]

1 hour ago, jjb1970 said:

Indonesia has the answer, they're being protected by God...…. it must be true because their health minister said so.

I see the Jakarta Post reporting that World Dream cruise liner crew will be quarantined on an uninhabited island.

 

[Ron Ron Ron]

The title of this thread might need updating.

 

 

 

.

[jjb1970]

7 hours ago, Ozexpatriate said:

I see the Jakarta Post reporting that World Dream cruise liner crew will be quarantined on an uninhabited island.

 

 

I suspect that the health and well being of ships crews is more at risk from the consequences of reactions to this pandemic than from the virus itself. 

[The Stationmaster]

Interesting looking at shipping movements etc at a couple of Chinese ports -

 

Shanghai,

one vessel currently alongside, 11 arrivals expected 26.02, 8 arrivals expected 27.02. 1 only currently listed for 28.02.  

Considerable number of vessels arriving and departing in recent days.

Since the beginning of February the arrival of cargo vessels, excluding tankers, has varied between one and ten per day with the busiest days being 9, 10. and 23 February

Source Shanghai Port Authority

 

Zhuhai

No vessels currently alongside, 2 arrivals expected 26.02, 9 expected 27.02, 2 expected 28.02, 1 expected 29.02

1 vessel departed 25.02,  3 departed 24.02, 4 departed 23.02, steady pattern of arrivals and departures back to 19.02 (which is as far as I bothered to look)

The number of cargo vessels arriving per day has only been one or two with none at all on some days since the beginning of February

Source Port Authority but also checks against current movements showing on AIS

 

I don't know what might or might not have been in any of the ships involved in the movements listed above but it is pretty clear from those two ports that movements in and out of port and berthing alongside have been going on although the quantity of traffic is obviously not known.   These two ports may of course be exceptional but equally they might be typical.  equally as it is China there could well be accusations that the information might not be correct however as noted above I have cross checked Zhuhai today against AIS and unless there are a lot of fake AIS transmission (which I doubt the port's own information is validated by that.

 

I cannot really believe that all these vessels - of various nationality's flags including GB - simply went alongside, did nothing and then left; they'd have to be ptr retty desparate to pay hefty port fees simply to take on stores and water.

[Ron Ron Ron]

30 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

....This isn't a normal virus.

If its this efficient at spreading, containment has little chance, its natures lottery and not much anyone can do about it, and it could be around us for much of the year and next.
 

Sadly I don't think any countries health system will be ready for it.

 

Unless immediate action is taken to restrict travel (road, rail and air), there's no hope of containment.

It's probably too late to stop its spread to most parts of the "western world".

European governments, including our own, will act when the horse has bolted.

 

We have a personal dilemma.

My wife and I, plus our adult kids and my elderly mother, are all due to fly to Lombardy next week, to join my sister and her Italian family, for a significant family celebration.

My sister lives about 30 miles north of the hot spot, where small towns have been sealed off.

I'm in daily contact with her and we're both monitoring the situation.

A decision to cancel will be quite costly and very disappointing, but may be the wisest decision.

However, my sister reminds me that the population of Lombardy is something like 10 million and only a few hundred people have tested positive for the virus, so far.

 

 

 

.

[Colin_McLeod]

The Irish acting minister for health has RECOMMENDED that the forthcoming match between Ireland and Italy in Dublin should be cancelled in the interest of public health since many of the Italian supporters would be coming from the effected area of Italy.  This is wholly sensible except for one thing:- it's a recommendation and not a directive.

 

The Irish Rugby Football Association says it will follow any DIRECTIVE it receives but is not happy with having to make a decision.

 

While all this Irish nonsense continues the risk of people entering Ireland without any screening continues.

 

The recommendation should be turned into a directive asap.

Edited February 26, 2020 by Colin_McLeod
I confused football and rugby. It's the game played by men with funny shaped balls.

[Chamby]

An interesting aspect of this nasty soon-to-be-pandemic is that it is proving to be a wake-up call for modern business practices.  With global trade working on a just-in-time basis, it is proving that a sneeze in China really does have consequences across the planet, and quickly.  Maybe even Hornby might be tempted to start making things themselves, in Margate again???

 

I fully expect model railway supplies to be delayed, perhaps substantially.      From the reports from areas more deeply affected by Covid-19, it would seem that we will however be more concerned about our local shops running out of basic foodstuffs and toilet rolls.  Two-week ‘self isolation’ will become commonplace, until the point is reached where the virus is endemic.  

 

Putting all this together, the scenario is clear.  Stock up the larder and just stay at home.  Communicate with family, friends and work colleagues over the interweb.   Time to catch up on all those modelling jobs that have been put off for too long, rather than be preoccupied with the latest new stuff!

 

life could be a lot worse.

[Philou]

For what it's worth - as soon as the US decided to evacuate their Consulate staff from the Wuhan area - I did think 'that's it, genie is out of the bottle'. Stupid is as stupid does .

[AY Mod]

10 minutes ago, Chamby said:

Stock up the larder and just stay at home.  Communicate with family, friends and work colleagues over the interweb.   Time to catch up on all those modelling jobs that have been put off for too long, rather than be preoccupied with the latest new stuff!

 

That's quite appealing at other times too. 

[Oldddudders]

20 minutes ago, Colin_McLeod said:

The Irish acting minister for health has RECOMMENDED that the forthcoming match between Ireland and Italy in Dublin should be cancelled in the interest of public health since many of the Italian supporters would be coming from the effected area of Italy.  This is wholly sensible except for one thing:- it's a recommendation and not a directive.

 

The Football Association of Ireland says it will follow any DIRECTIVE it receives but is not happy with having to make a decision.

 

While all this Irish nonsense continues the risk of people entering Ireland without any screening continues.

 

The recommendation should be turned into a directive asap.

Unfortunately since sport became a business, and a very lucrative one in many cases, governments find they have important people looking daggers at them when such a decision may be due. Money talks, political parties need funding allies, and businesses are at the core of that. Fingers in pies everywhere. 

 

The Chinese F1 race has been postponed, in theory, but as there is very little chance of finding another slot this year, Coronavirus or not, cancellation looms. That will cost the promoting F1 business at least £30m, and other races are looking a bit dodgy. After all, of a 22-race calendar, the virus has now been declared in 17 of those countries. 

[jjb1970]

I am not an expert on (or even knowledgeable about) medical matters, however we have just had a briefing and meeting with one of the worlds principal bodies for such matters and a few take away's are provided below:

 

• Coronavirus discovered in December and primarily affecting China.
• Factories are starting to reopen now and the situation is improving in China. A team from WHO have recently returned and are reporting that the control measures put in place are starting to have a significant affect. All the trends in China are pointing downwards.
• Unfortunately that is not the case elsewhere. 11 new countries report cases in last 7 days.
• The outbreaks are maintaining a ‘cluster’ like quality rather than widespread infection throughout population so perspective is needed.
• Virus is spread primarily through close contact. If clusters are not picked up quickly then there is a risk of community infection however it can be controlled if detected early enough.
• It is a ‘relatively’ severe disease with a mortality rate of 2 to 3% but this is based on confirmed cases. Although there are pickets of higher mortality (eg South Korea) it is thought that the actual mortality rate is lower due to the suspected large numbers of unconfirmed cases.
• The majority of people only experience mild symptoms.
• Of the 78k cases in china about 30k have now fully recovered.
• No evidence of disease being spread by cargo.
• Cruise lines are particularly vulnerable and it is very difficult to quarantine large numbers of passengers on board as ships are not designed for this. Most large cruise vessels have facilities to quarantine properly a few people.
• Travel restrictions do not make a lot of sense and are not appearing to work very well.
• Coronavirus is not an airborne disease so unless you are a health professional or a patient being treated by them it then wearing a mask will have little value.
• It is not about having sophisticated healthcare facilities but more about basic infection control including hygiene (wash you hands, use a hankie etc.)
• Local risk assessments are key in managing the problem. It is impossible to have a zero risk environment. Responses should be proportionate and based on sound advice. There is a perception of fear monger in going on right now.
• IATA have issued a detailed Q and A on the virus for their members which was reviewed by WHO.

 

Overall, there was s a sense of over reaction by some and that good basic measures would go a long way to addressing the problem.

[jjb1970]

2 hours ago, The Stationmaster said:

Interesting looking at shipping movements etc at a couple of Chinese ports -

 

Shanghai,

one vessel currently alongside, 11 arrivals expected 26.02, 8 arrivals expected 27.02. 1 only currently listed for 28.02.  

Considerable number of vessels arriving and departing in recent days.

Since the beginning of February the arrival of cargo vessels, excluding tankers, has varied between one and ten per day with the busiest days being 9, 10. and 23 February

Source Shanghai Port Authority

 

Zhuhai

No vessels currently alongside, 2 arrivals expected 26.02, 9 expected 27.02, 2 expected 28.02, 1 expected 29.02

1 vessel departed 25.02,  3 departed 24.02, 4 departed 23.02, steady pattern of arrivals and departures back to 19.02 (which is as far as I bothered to look)

The number of cargo vessels arriving per day has only been one or two with none at all on some days since the beginning of February

Source Port Authority but also checks against current movements showing on AIS

 

I don't know what might or might not have been in any of the ships involved in the movements listed above but it is pretty clear from those two ports that movements in and out of port and berthing alongside have been going on although the quantity of traffic is obviously not known.   These two ports may of course be exceptional but equally they might be typical.  equally as it is China there could well be accusations that the information might not be correct however as noted above I have cross checked Zhuhai today against AIS and unless there are a lot of fake AIS transmission (which I doubt the port's own information is validated by that.

 

I cannot really believe that all these vessels - of various nationality's flags including GB - simply went alongside, did nothing and then left; they'd have to be ptr retty desparate to pay hefty port fees simply to take on stores and water.

 

Indeed, ships are continuing to operate and transport their cargo around the world. There has been a big dip in certain trade volumes and cancelled sailings in liner segments but that is very different from the industry freezing.

[adb968008]

On 26/02/2020 at 13:09, Ron Ron Ron said:

 

 

It's probably too late to stop its spread to most parts of the "western world".

European governments, including our own, will act when the horse has bolted.

 

 

Deleted

 

Edited March 11, 2020 by adb968008

[Wheres_Wally]

42 minutes ago, jjb1970 said:

Overall, there was s a sense of over reaction by some and that good basic measures would go a long way to addressing the problem.

 

My entirely unscientific observations would be that this is bad news for model railway shows where nearly half those using the gents don't bother washing their hands. An even lower figure was noted a large toyfair, which made me wary of handling items for sale later!

[Ron Ron Ron]

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/coronavirus-seems-unstoppable-what-should-world-do-now
 

 

 

 

.

 

[Gibbo675]

34 minutes ago, Wheres_Wally said:

 

My entirely unscientific observations would be that this is bad news for model railway shows where nearly half those using the gents don't bother washing their hands. An even lower figure was noted a large toyfair, which made me wary of handling items for sale later!

Hi Wally,

 

I once worked with a chap that had been part of the development team of the Prototype HST and he told of what came about when the question of toilet discharge at 125mph was asked.

He told me that they filled up the toilet bowl in the leading coach with white wash and at 125mph flushed the toilet, here are the results of where it ended up:

1. All over the leading bogie.
2. All along the underframe valance.
3. Mostly over the next pair of bogies.
4. Mostly over the head-stocks and ends of the second coach
5. A suitable misting of all the leading edges of all door handles and grab rails all along the train.

Makes you think !

 

My question would be how many people that work in restaurant kitchen would you have brew up for you if you actually met them ?

 

Gibbo.

[adb968008]

1 hour ago, Gibbo675 said:

Hi Wally,

 

I once worked with a chap that had been part of the development team of the Prototype HST and he told of what came about when the question of toilet discharge at 125mph was asked.

He told me that they filled up the toilet bowl in the leading coach with white wash and at 125mph flushed the toilet, here are the results of where it ended up:

1. All over the leading bogie.
2. All along the underframe valance.
3. Mostly over the next pair of bogies.
4. Mostly over the head-stocks and ends of the second coach
5. A suitable misting of all the leading edges of all door handles and grab rails all along the train.

Makes you think !

 

My question would be how many people that work in restaurant kitchen would you have brew up for you if you actually met them ?

 

Gibbo.

Where did it go at 60mph ?

 

Theres a reason why theres so many Tomato plants alongside the rail network.. but I wont be eating them.

 

I wonder why people buy used railway sleepers in their garden.

 

on a lighter note, on a trip up the mosul valley to Koblenz, a German passenger told me, that when steam finished in the valley, the following year the wine taste changed.... the effects of nearly 200 steam movements a day on heavy coal trains emitting dust onto the hillside affected the soil, and hence the grapes.

 

 

 

 

[Pandora]

On 27/01/2020 at 21:43, phil-b259 said:

 

 

Please remember China is a communist country.  Democracy is terrible if you want things done - all those pesky rules and judges getting in the way - and of course the need to be 'popular' at election time.

 

 

 

As is normal in Communist societies, those who resist will face sanctions, fines, arbitrary arrest, etc while at the same time the state propaganda will extol the virtues of those working to build the hospital.

 

Don't let China fool you - for all its apparent charm it remains a deeply repressive regime which is only able to do lots of the things is does because it tramples all over those who do not 'confirm' to what the ruling Communist party tells them. If you don't then... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-sh/China_hidden_camps

 

So while we might well praise Chinas swift response to the outbreak - the fact remains that they can only react as fast as they have done because they are a repressive state that tramples over basic human rights. That rather takes the sheen off things....

 

Agreed , China is still a deeply rooted   Police state

Read about their advanced digital surveillance system being tested and implemented to condition the activities of their population, so close to the George Orwell

book  "1984"

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Credit_System

Edited February 26, 2020 by Pandora

[Gibbo675]

Hi Folks,

 

Here is a little light reading :

 

https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a523781.pdf

 

Gibbo.

[Pandora]

Reading about the virus,  and the emphasis on hand washing,  i'n switching over  from domestic soap to  carbolic soap for a time.

Carbolic soap dates back to the Victorians, still extremely  effective as a disease spread control today, one of the Victorians  better hand downs that  has probably saved more lives than we can count .

Bath time with carbolic soap  halted the bacteria of  the deadly 1920s smallpox epidemic in Britain

[Andy Hayter]

5 hours ago, The Stationmaster said:

Interesting looking at shipping movements etc at a couple of Chinese ports -

 

Shanghai,

one vessel currently alongside, 11 arrivals expected 26.02, 8 arrivals expected 27.02. 1 only currently listed for 28.02.  

Considerable number of vessels arriving and departing in recent days.

Since the beginning of February the arrival of cargo vessels, excluding tankers, has varied between one and ten per day with the busiest days being 9, 10. and 23 February

Source Shanghai Port Authority

 

Zhuhai

No vessels currently alongside, 2 arrivals expected 26.02, 9 expected 27.02, 2 expected 28.02, 1 expected 29.02

1 vessel departed 25.02,  3 departed 24.02, 4 departed 23.02, steady pattern of arrivals and departures back to 19.02 (which is as far as I bothered to look)

The number of cargo vessels arriving per day has only been one or two with none at all on some days since the beginning of February

Source Port Authority but also checks against current movements showing on AIS

 

I don't know what might or might not have been in any of the ships involved in the movements listed above but it is pretty clear from those two ports that movements in and out of port and berthing alongside have been going on although the quantity of traffic is obviously not known.   These two ports may of course be exceptional but equally they might be typical.  equally as it is China there could well be accusations that the information might not be correct however as noted above I have cross checked Zhuhai today against AIS and unless there are a lot of fake AIS transmission (which I doubt the port's own information is validated by that.

 

I cannot really believe that all these vessels - of various nationality's flags including GB - simply went alongside, did nothing and then left; they'd have to be ptr retty desparate to pay hefty port fees simply to take on stores and water.

 

Mike

I am not sure what this proves.  Ships are moving, no one has said they aren't.  I suggested that they might be moving more slowly (at least that is what I wanted to convey).  Without historic data we cannot say whether these numbers are normal, down on average or maybe up on average.  What I will say is one (1!) ship docked in Shanghai does not sound like business as normal, even if there are a lot scheduled for today and tomorrow.  Perhaps (let's hope)things are getting back to normal.

 

 

As for the comments on Slavic Europe earlier, Croatia and North Macedonia have now confirmed cases.   It is likely that most countries will have cases in the coming weeks.

[Nearholmer]

5 hours ago, Ron Ron Ron said:

Unless immediate action is taken to restrict travel (road, rail and air), there's no hope of containment.

I’m amazed (well, actually, no I’m not; I’m saddened) that there hasn’t been a severe crack-down on air-travel already, given that (opinion coming-up) 95% of air travel serves no other purpose than the happiness of the traveller or their friends and family. Even a very high % of business travel is ‘avoidable with some consequences’.

 

Suspending international air travel wouldn’t have prevented the spread entirely, but it might have bought useful time.

 

 

Edited February 26, 2020 by Nearholmer

[BoD]

39 minutes ago, Gibbo675 said:

Hi Folks,

 

Here is a little light reading :

 

https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a523781.pdf

 

Gibbo.

Life’s too short to wait for it to load let alone read it.  

[Phil Parker]

4 hours ago, jjb1970 said:

• It is a ‘relatively’ severe disease with a mortality rate of 2 to 3% but this is based on confirmed cases. Although there are pickets of higher mortality (eg South Korea) it is thought that the actual mortality rate is lower due to the suspected large numbers of unconfirmed cases.
• The majority of people only experience mild symptoms.
• Of the 78k cases in china about 30k have now fully recovered.

 

If you have a mild sniffle or even flu, how many people ring the doctor? I suspect that the number of cases is much larger than the official numbers. This might change in the UK after several weeks of hysterical coverage from the media. We hear how many people have been infected, never how many recovered. Read the tabloids and interweb and you think we are facing the end of the world. However, even China is starting to get back to normal life. Assuming things work for other illnesses, those who recover will have some immunity.

 

I remember, when working for MAFF, reading the official rabies plans. At the time, the idea was to hype the disease (which is admittedly, horrible) to ensure people obeyed the 6 month quarantine rules for pets at the time. If it came to the UK, this was to go into reverse to avoid panic. Once we get Coronavirus in the UK, I suspect a similar about-face will take place. Look out for "It's no worse than flu" appearing everywhere.

[Andy Hayter]

Recovery rates are there if you seek them Phil.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

 

Perhaps not as high as we would wish given the virus has been around since December.

As with all of these statistics please take with a good helping of salt.

Asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic people who just stay at home will probably not be recorded.

Equally influenza (and today Corvid19) may not be recorded as cause of death over perhaps heart failure, pulmonary failure etc..