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Hi

 

Given the HS2 Review thread has been shut down, just when it is starting to get interesting, I thought I would start a new one.

 

Three items for a kick off:

 

http://www.infrastructure-intelligence.com/article/jan-2020/national-audit-office-slams-basic-failings-hs2-being-over-budget-and-behind

 

http://www.infrastructure-intelligence.com/article/jan-2020/hs2-right-project-wrong-pitch-public

 

https://www.nao.org.uk/report/high-speed-two-a-progress-update/

 

These would seem to highlight a basic deficit between:

 

a) treasury rules on the allowance for contingency at an early stage of major projects

b) the rules between advocacy between HMG and HS2 Ltd

c) the difference between the certainty of costs for Phase 1 & 2A, and Phase 2B.

 

Certainly, one aspect that shouts out is that the £88 billion (or £106 billion - take your pick) consists of 40% contingency now. NAO now seems satisfied that this is adequate (with caveats) for Phase 1 & 2A) but may prove inadequate for Phase 2B.

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Some interesting reading. At least some people are getting the message, that the line is more than just shaving a few minutes of the London-Brum time and more about the additional capacity that it will release on exsisting lines.

 

 

 

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Additional services on the wcml but given how long it takes to commission rolling stock wonder if they will happen?

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1 hour ago, Siberian Snooper said:

Some interesting reading. At least some people are getting the message, that the line is more than just shaving a few minutes of the London-Brum time and more about the additional capacity that it will release on exsisting lines.

 

 

 

But is it too late?

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A second cabinet minister is now on record this week saying it’s going ahead ‘in their view’

 

Based on the emails I get direct from HS2 for Aylesbury area which have ramped up massively in past 10 days, I’d say phase 1 is safe as a minimum

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3 hours ago, lmsforever said:

Additional services on the wcml but given how long it takes to commission rolling stock wonder if they will happen?

When you think about it, and although the timescales might not match, in theory opening HS2 will create redundant stock  (Pendolinos) on the WCML.  while they are hardly suitable for medium distance commuting they probably would be ok (maybe with interior refit?) for longer distance working making more stops and running below maximum speed where necessary for pathing reasons>

 

But whichever way you look at it with the opening of HS2 some way off there is time to design and build trains for other routes and provided it is kept going with a wider range of orders in the meanwhile there might well be UK factory capacity to build them.

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3 hours ago, ess1uk said:

But is it too late?

 

It's never too late! But once the official announcement is made DafT need to get their act together and start working out what the next bum numbing rolling stock will be required by the TOCs and start the procurement process, so that it's available when it's needed.

 

 

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HS2 might start paying landowners now a site near me has only had half of money paid and they threatened  baillifs and no notice of final money payment.

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1 hour ago, The Stationmaster said:

When you think about it, and although the timescales might not match, in theory opening HS2 will create redundant stock  (Pendolinos) on the WCML.  while they are hardly suitable for medium distance commuting they probably would be ok (maybe with interior refit?) for longer distance working making more stops and running below maximum speed where necessary for pathing reasons>

 

But whichever way you look at it with the opening of HS2 some way off there is time to design and build trains for other routes and provided it is kept going with a wider range of orders in the meanwhile there might well be UK factory capacity to build them.

By the time HS2 gets to fruition the Pendolinos will be nearly life expired, if run at a lower speed the tilt will be a heavy redundant component.

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6 hours ago, lmsforever said:

Additional services on the wcml but given how long it takes to commission rolling stock wonder if they will happen?

By the time HS2 is ready to start running trains the 350s will be nearly at the end of their service life.

They will just have to build a few more of whatever is going to replace them.

Bernard 

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Just seen and heard at PMQ time Bojo giving IMHO the clearest indication yet that HS2 will be given the go ahead..in answer to a plant question from the Conservative back bench.

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28 minutes ago, Ian Hargrave said:

Just seen and heard at PMQ time Bojo giving IMHO the clearest indication yet that HS2 will be given the go ahead..in answer to a plant question from the Conservative back bench.

 
IIRC the matter of “capacity “ was mentioned  in the member’s question.

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BBC now reporting that Laura Kuensberg expects an announcement tomorrow, Thursday, and that she expects a "yes" for the project to go ahead.

 

John.

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19 minutes ago, John Tomlinson said:

BBC now reporting that Laura Kuensberg expects an announcement tomorrow, Thursday, and that she expects a "yes" for the project to go ahead.

 

John.

In its entirety?

 

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29 minutes ago, 62613 said:

In its entirety?

 

She mentioned that it is likely to subject to certain conditions.

We will have to wait and see.

Bernard

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6 hours ago, Bernard Lamb said:

She mentioned that it is likely to subject to certain conditions.

We will have to wait and see.

Bernard

 

Is it "Let's spend 5 to 10 billion on detailed design work for all of these capacity improvements that would otherwise be needed on the WCML, before conducting like for like comparison...?"

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2 minutes ago, 298 said:

 

Is it "Let's spend 5 to 10 billion on detailed design work for all of these capacity improvements that would otherwise be needed on the WCML, before conducting like for like comparison...?"

I thought that had been done some years ago with Crossrail to Tring and it was ruled out as not providing value for money, Apart from being political suicide due to the number of people affected in a bad way.

Bernard

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7 hours ago, Bernard Lamb said:

She mentioned that it is likely to subject to certain conditions.

We will have to wait and see.

Bernard

 

It will probably be assessed at various points along the way to make sure it is not above budget but realistically once it goes further it`s too far gone to cancel. Probably an option to cancel 2b if it gores over budget before they reach that stage ?

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Lunchtime news, the decision has been deferred yet again. Although the chancellor is backing the scheme. 

 

 

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So the cost will go up a few more percent, partly for inflation and partly to pay for the inevitable further review(s).

Jonathan

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38 minutes ago, Siberian Snooper said:

Lunchtime news, the decision has been deferred yet again. Although the chancellor is backing the scheme. 

 

 

Tin can, long grass & kick comes to mind.

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45 minutes ago, Siberian Snooper said:

Lunchtime news, the decision has been deferred yet again. .....

 

4 minutes ago, melmerby said:

Tin can, long grass & kick comes to mind.

 

Despite the media telling everyone that a decision was going to be made at this week's meeting, Grant Shapps did say earlier this week that a final decision wouldn't be forthcoming for another couple of weeks.

Accusations of "kicking the can..." are typical of media reaction when their speculation turns out have been nonsense.

 

 

.

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2 hours ago, Ron Ron Ron said:

 

 

Despite the media telling everyone that a decision was going to be made at this week's meeting, Grant Shapps did say earlier this week that a final decision wouldn't be forthcoming for another couple of weeks.

Accusations of "kicking the can..." are typical of media reaction when their speculation turns out have been nonsense.

 

 

.

He also told the Midlands Today transport correspondent that it was "imminent" a week or so ago.

Imminent to me means almost immediately, not a few weeks hence.

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