Mike Storey Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Hi Given the HS2 Review thread has been shut down, just when it is starting to get interesting, I thought I would start a new one. Three items for a kick off: http://www.infrastructure-intelligence.com/article/jan-2020/national-audit-office-slams-basic-failings-hs2-being-over-budget-and-behind http://www.infrastructure-intelligence.com/article/jan-2020/hs2-right-project-wrong-pitch-public https://www.nao.org.uk/report/high-speed-two-a-progress-update/ These would seem to highlight a basic deficit between: a) treasury rules on the allowance for contingency at an early stage of major projects b) the rules between advocacy between HMG and HS2 Ltd c) the difference between the certainty of costs for Phase 1 & 2A, and Phase 2B. Certainly, one aspect that shouts out is that the £88 billion (or £106 billion - take your pick) consists of 40% contingency now. NAO now seems satisfied that this is adequate (with caveats) for Phase 1 & 2A) but may prove inadequate for Phase 2B. 2 3 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Premium Siberian Snooper Posted January 28, 2020 RMweb Premium Share Posted January 28, 2020 Some interesting reading. At least some people are getting the message, that the line is more than just shaving a few minutes of the London-Brum time and more about the additional capacity that it will release on exsisting lines. 1 3 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
lmsforever Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Additional services on the wcml but given how long it takes to commission rolling stock wonder if they will happen? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ess1uk Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 hour ago, Siberian Snooper said: Some interesting reading. At least some people are getting the message, that the line is more than just shaving a few minutes of the London-Brum time and more about the additional capacity that it will release on exsisting lines. But is it too late? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
black and decker boy Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 A second cabinet minister is now on record this week saying it’s going ahead ‘in their view’ Based on the emails I get direct from HS2 for Aylesbury area which have ramped up massively in past 10 days, I’d say phase 1 is safe as a minimum 3 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Gold The Stationmaster Posted January 28, 2020 RMweb Gold Share Posted January 28, 2020 3 hours ago, lmsforever said: Additional services on the wcml but given how long it takes to commission rolling stock wonder if they will happen? When you think about it, and although the timescales might not match, in theory opening HS2 will create redundant stock (Pendolinos) on the WCML. while they are hardly suitable for medium distance commuting they probably would be ok (maybe with interior refit?) for longer distance working making more stops and running below maximum speed where necessary for pathing reasons> But whichever way you look at it with the opening of HS2 some way off there is time to design and build trains for other routes and provided it is kept going with a wider range of orders in the meanwhile there might well be UK factory capacity to build them. 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Premium Siberian Snooper Posted January 28, 2020 RMweb Premium Share Posted January 28, 2020 3 hours ago, ess1uk said: But is it too late? It's never too late! But once the official announcement is made DafT need to get their act together and start working out what the next bum numbing rolling stock will be required by the TOCs and start the procurement process, so that it's available when it's needed. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
lmsforever Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 HS2 might start paying landowners now a site near me has only had half of money paid and they threatened baillifs and no notice of final money payment. 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
woodenhead Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 hour ago, The Stationmaster said: When you think about it, and although the timescales might not match, in theory opening HS2 will create redundant stock (Pendolinos) on the WCML. while they are hardly suitable for medium distance commuting they probably would be ok (maybe with interior refit?) for longer distance working making more stops and running below maximum speed where necessary for pathing reasons> But whichever way you look at it with the opening of HS2 some way off there is time to design and build trains for other routes and provided it is kept going with a wider range of orders in the meanwhile there might well be UK factory capacity to build them. By the time HS2 gets to fruition the Pendolinos will be nearly life expired, if run at a lower speed the tilt will be a heavy redundant component. 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bernard Lamb Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 6 hours ago, lmsforever said: Additional services on the wcml but given how long it takes to commission rolling stock wonder if they will happen? By the time HS2 is ready to start running trains the 350s will be nearly at the end of their service life. They will just have to build a few more of whatever is going to replace them. Bernard 3 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Gold Ian Hargrave Posted January 29, 2020 RMweb Gold Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just seen and heard at PMQ time Bojo giving IMHO the clearest indication yet that HS2 will be given the go ahead..in answer to a plant question from the Conservative back bench. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Gold Ian Hargrave Posted January 29, 2020 RMweb Gold Share Posted January 29, 2020 28 minutes ago, Ian Hargrave said: Just seen and heard at PMQ time Bojo giving IMHO the clearest indication yet that HS2 will be given the go ahead..in answer to a plant question from the Conservative back bench. IIRC the matter of “capacity “ was mentioned in the member’s question. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Tomlinson Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 BBC now reporting that Laura Kuensberg expects an announcement tomorrow, Thursday, and that she expects a "yes" for the project to go ahead. John. 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Premium Siberian Snooper Posted January 29, 2020 RMweb Premium Share Posted January 29, 2020 Hurrah!! 2 4 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
62613 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 19 minutes ago, John Tomlinson said: BBC now reporting that Laura Kuensberg expects an announcement tomorrow, Thursday, and that she expects a "yes" for the project to go ahead. John. In its entirety? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bernard Lamb Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 29 minutes ago, 62613 said: In its entirety? She mentioned that it is likely to subject to certain conditions. We will have to wait and see. Bernard 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
298 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 6 hours ago, Bernard Lamb said: She mentioned that it is likely to subject to certain conditions. We will have to wait and see. Bernard Is it "Let's spend 5 to 10 billion on detailed design work for all of these capacity improvements that would otherwise be needed on the WCML, before conducting like for like comparison...?" 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bernard Lamb Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 2 minutes ago, 298 said: Is it "Let's spend 5 to 10 billion on detailed design work for all of these capacity improvements that would otherwise be needed on the WCML, before conducting like for like comparison...?" I thought that had been done some years ago with Crossrail to Tring and it was ruled out as not providing value for money, Apart from being political suicide due to the number of people affected in a bad way. Bernard 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
class26 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 7 hours ago, Bernard Lamb said: She mentioned that it is likely to subject to certain conditions. We will have to wait and see. Bernard It will probably be assessed at various points along the way to make sure it is not above budget but realistically once it goes further it`s too far gone to cancel. Probably an option to cancel 2b if it gores over budget before they reach that stage ? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Premium DavidLong Posted January 30, 2020 RMweb Premium Share Posted January 30, 2020 (edited) https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/jan/29/sajid-javid-expected-to-back-hs2-despite-spiralling-costs If the Treasury is onside . . . David Edited January 30, 2020 by DavidLong 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Premium Siberian Snooper Posted January 30, 2020 RMweb Premium Share Posted January 30, 2020 Lunchtime news, the decision has been deferred yet again. Although the chancellor is backing the scheme. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Premium corneliuslundie Posted January 30, 2020 RMweb Premium Share Posted January 30, 2020 So the cost will go up a few more percent, partly for inflation and partly to pay for the inevitable further review(s). Jonathan 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Premium melmerby Posted January 30, 2020 RMweb Premium Share Posted January 30, 2020 38 minutes ago, Siberian Snooper said: Lunchtime news, the decision has been deferred yet again. Although the chancellor is backing the scheme. Tin can, long grass & kick comes to mind. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ron Ron Ron Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 45 minutes ago, Siberian Snooper said: Lunchtime news, the decision has been deferred yet again. ..... 4 minutes ago, melmerby said: Tin can, long grass & kick comes to mind. Despite the media telling everyone that a decision was going to be made at this week's meeting, Grant Shapps did say earlier this week that a final decision wouldn't be forthcoming for another couple of weeks. Accusations of "kicking the can..." are typical of media reaction when their speculation turns out have been nonsense. . 2 2 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Premium melmerby Posted January 30, 2020 RMweb Premium Share Posted January 30, 2020 2 hours ago, Ron Ron Ron said: Despite the media telling everyone that a decision was going to be made at this week's meeting, Grant Shapps did say earlier this week that a final decision wouldn't be forthcoming for another couple of weeks. Accusations of "kicking the can..." are typical of media reaction when their speculation turns out have been nonsense. . He also told the Midlands Today transport correspondent that it was "imminent" a week or so ago. Imminent to me means almost immediately, not a few weeks hence. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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