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57 minutes ago, Flittersnoop said:

So when HS2 inevitably starts (! We're already there, aren't we?) to suffer from massive overruns on time and cost (which is the main achievement of the 21st century rail industry, after all) we can, by your own logic, watch while the government loses patience and trims back HS2 or cancels it altogether!

Here is how projects work in both public & private sectors:

Engineers assess how much it will cost in money & time (cost A). They know that the budget will be cut, so they add some extra to this estimate before submitting the final cost (cost B, higher than cost A).

Those in charge are aware that engineers inflate the cost & cut off what they believe is the excess (cost C, somewhat lower than cost A). They then cut some more off because getting things done more cheaply is seen as good (cost D, lower than cost C & completely unachievable. This is the cost which gets announced).

The final submitted cost is announced (still cost D) & this is a lot lower than the project can possibly be completed for (cost A). The management team are given a nice pat on the back (& probably a big bonus) for getting it done quickly & cheaply.

The project seems to be costing more than (cost D) . There are several alternatives here.

The project can be cancelled. It may have progressed so far that this is considered a waste.

The project can be completed cheaply & quickly. Many aspects will need to be revisited but these can be assigned to other projects, so the main project will not run too far over time or budget.

The project can be completed to the original proposed standards. The total cost would probably be closer to cost A than anything else...what the engineers proposed in the first place.

 

So a project over-running on cost & time really depends on which budget you are using.

Which HS2 budget do you think leaked out to the press? I doubt anyone outside of the project actually knows.

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2 minutes ago, Flittersnoop said:

Yes, HS2 is of a different order, but so is the price tag and scope for delay and cost overrun. All the supposed benefits are pure speculation, so the "we can't afford not to build it" argument is very weak, and since the construction period will stretch way beyond the next general election, tying HS2's future to the political fortunes of Boris Johnson is a very high-risk strategy indeed. Northern MPs will get very little benefit from construction work in Buckinghamshire etc if their constituents still have a chronically overcrowded and inreliable rail commute into Manchester or Leeds.

 

It sounds like you assume all other rail extension/upgrade projects will be put on hold while HS2 is being built?

I have seen no evidence of this.

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1 minute ago, Flittersnoop said:

Yes, HS2 is of a different order, but so is the price tag and scope for delay and cost overrun. All the supposed benefits are pure speculation, so the "we can't afford not to build it" argument is very weak, and since the construction period will stretch way beyond the next general election, tying HS2's future to the political fortunes of Boris Johnson is a very high-risk strategy indeed. Northern MPs will get very little benefit from construction work in Buckinghamshire etc if their constituents still have a chronically overcrowded and inreliable rail commute into Manchester or Leeds.

 

 

 

With his somewhat strange advisors, we can't completely rule out political catastrophe for Boris. But by any normal political forecast, he will comfortably stay in power for at least the next eight years and be in a position to choose his successor. He also seems to be remarkably Teflon-coated like his chum in The White House.

 

Grant Shapps seems to be entirely on board with the improvement to local/regional services in the North as well as HS2. Boris (whose front door is labelled First Lord of the Treasury) has ousted his Chancellor and taken charge of the finances. So no apparent reason to be pessimistic.

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3 minutes ago, Pete the Elaner said:

It sounds like you assume all other rail extension/upgrade projects will be put on hold while HS2 is being built?

I have seen no evidence of this.

 

What concerns me is not the Govt policy on this but whether we have enough available expertise and labour to achieve both at once. From that point of view, the Chinese building HS2 could be very useful if it frees up engineers to do the other projects.

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18 hours ago, Mark Saunders said:

This link makes interesting reading and the attitude of the Prime Minister and the blame culture that exists!

 

https://www.theconstructionindex.co.uk/news/view/johnsons-puts-his-jackboot-into-hs2-engineers?utm_source=taboola&utm_medium=referral

How can you identify cost savings, etc., without having to do detail redesign work? Speaking as someone who has had to do just that many times over the years. Rather the thought the engineers had been ready to go for a few years now, but it was the politicians being distracted by something else that had caused the delay. The points in the article about cost inflation due to the environmental works in Bucks, and wondering if there is anyone in government who can manage a project of this size, are well-made

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49 minutes ago, 62613 said:

How can you identify cost savings, etc., without having to do detail redesign work? Speaking as someone who has had to do just that many times over the years. Rather the thought the engineers had been ready to go for a few years now, but it was the politicians being distracted by something else that had caused the delay. The points in the article about cost inflation due to the environmental works in Bucks, and wondering if there is anyone in government who can manage a project of this size, are well-made

The engineers have been working on it for a decade or more; many of my wife's colleagues from CTRL moved there when that was completed in 2007. She was 'invited to apply' at the time, but, fortunately, found something else.

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1 hour ago, 62613 said:

How can you identify cost savings, etc., without having to do detail redesign work? Speaking as someone who has had to do just that many times over the years. Rather the thought the engineers had been ready to go for a few years now, but it was the politicians being distracted by something else that had caused the delay. The points in the article about cost inflation due to the environmental works in Bucks, and wondering if there is anyone in government who can manage a project of this size, are well-made

 

Indeed, that would be true for Phase 2B. But for Phases 1 and 2A, I believe the gist of his fancifulness is to obtain savings by better contracts, better cost controls, better organisation, better accountability etc etc, and all those unicorn things that make politicians slaver into their mikes. Might get a few tens of millions off the forecasts, who knows? But at least then they can say they have achieved greatness in their own time.

 

But if they start fiddling with the design, then the programme is well and truly ........'d

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2 minutes ago, Pandora said:

The important subject  price of a ticket to travel on HS2  is still unanswered.  Will the operators price tickets for maximising profit   (high ticket prices, but low ridership), or for maximising passenger numbers (high ridership, low prices)?

Good question, but I suspect we'll have to wait a good few years to find out. Another possibility, I suppose, is that there will be a reserved seat system; once all the seats in a train are taken, that's it!

 

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It's not going to open for 10+ years. Ticket pricing is really not an issue for right now, but don't expect it to be super cheap.

 

Obviously they want high prices and high ridership, so it'll expensive as they think they can get away with.

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18 minutes ago, Pandora said:

The important subject  price of a ticket to travel on HS2  is still unanswered.  Will the operators price tickets for maximising profit   (high ticket prices, but low ridership), or for maximising passenger numbers (high ridership, low prices)?

 

I don't know what your perspective is on this, but when that sort of question is aired in the media, by journalists, politicians and members of the general public, it usually supposes, incorrectly, that the HS2 service is some sort of additional, alternative service provision, rather than the reality that it will take over most of the existing IC service on the affected routes

 

What will Premium pricing be a premium over?

 

 

.

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My perspective is this:    ticket revenue is part of the business case and ticket revenue vs ridership is open to conflicting aims and ambitions.

 For a particluar service train  the operators  could go for a  hyperthetical ticketing structure of catering for:

 

1) 1000 passengers @ £10/ticket  = £10000 revenue

2) 100 passengers @ £100/ticket = £10000 revenue

3) 50 passengers @ £300/ticket = £15000 revenue

 

 

 

1) is the option was maximising city to city connectivity and transfer from existing,

3) is the option for maximising operator profits, / minimal public benefit

 

i believe the case for HS2 is to enhance connectivity between  North to South for the many and not the few and that objective is high levels of ridership

 

How achievable is 1),   maximum ridership?

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2 hours ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

 

With his somewhat strange advisors, we can't completely rule out political catastrophe for Boris. But by any normal political forecast, he will comfortably stay in power for at least the next eight years and be in a position to choose his successor. He also seems to be remarkably Teflon-coated like his chum in The White House.

 

Grant Shapps seems to be entirely on board with the improvement to local/regional services in the North as well as HS2. Boris (whose front door is labelled First Lord of the Treasury) has ousted his Chancellor and taken charge of the finances. So no apparent reason to be pessimistic.


Harold Wilson.....remember him ?......once famously pronounced that a fortnight is a long time in politics.Atm Boris is testing the properties of Teflon almost to destruction.Teflon does wear eventually.

 Btw,his “advisors” had history before he crashed the scene and will eventually move on,maybe quoting eugenics to the Chinese.Nothing under the sun is new.....

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39 minutes ago, Pandora said:

My perspective is this:    ticket revenue is part of the business case and ticket revenue vs ridership is open to conflicting aims and ambitions.

 For a particluar service train  the operators  could go for a  hyperthetical ticketing structure of catering for:

 

1) 1000 passengers @ £10/ticket  = £10000 revenue

2) 100 passengers @ £100/ticket = £10000 revenue

3) 50 passengers @ £300/ticket = £15000 revenue

 

1) is the option was maximising transfer from existing,

3) is the option for maximising operator profits, / minimal public benefit

 

 

or.....

4) 1000 passengers @ £100/ticket = £100,000 revenue

5) 1000 passengers @ £300/ticket = £300,000 revenue

 

You can play around like that all day.

 

A more interesting question (IMHO) would concern the availability of tickets if for example, train passenger capacity was to be strictly limited to a set maximum capacity, e.g. seated passengers only.

If so, that would mean reservations only, with up to last minute filling of empty seats, when available.

 

.

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1 hour ago, Pandora said:

The important subject  price of a ticket to travel on HS2  is still unanswered.  Will the operators price tickets for maximising profit   (high ticket prices, but low ridership), or for maximising passenger numbers (high ridership, low prices)?

 

Why is it important right now? I don't know the price if KitKats in a decade, but it doesn't mean they shouldn't make them now.

 

If someone DOES set a price, are they forced to stick to it if something alters the calculations? 

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15 minutes ago, Ron Ron Ron said:

 

or.....

4) 1000 passengers @ £100/ticket = £100,000 revenue

5) 1000 passengers @ £300/ticket = £300,000 revenue

 

You can play around like that all day.

 

A more interesting question (IMHO) would concern the availability of tickets if for example, train passenger capacity was to be strictly limited to a set maximum capacity, e.g. seated passengers only.

If so, that would mean reservations only, with up to last minute filling of empty seats, when available.

 

.

This is game theory to economists and is debated in perpetuum,  the baker in the village , does he bake a daily  quantity of loaves of bread for the sustenance of every family in the village ( all are fed ...philanthropic)  or does he trim back his daily bake so his bread sells at high profit , but there is hunger.

HS2 is puiblically funded  with a public stake of £106 bn,  where are the safeguards of public access to use the asset  they paid for?

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Remember that a section of British politics and the media will have you believe that the current rail system is simultaneously so expensive that nobody can afford to use it, and incredibly over crowded due to all the people using it. I reckon the 'HS2 is going to be an expensive service for the super-rich' notion is coming from the same speakers of nonsense.

 

 

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34 minutes ago, pete_mcfarlane said:

Remember that a section of British politics and the media will have you believe that the current rail system is simultaneously so expensive that nobody can afford to use it, and incredibly over crowded due to all the people using it. I reckon the 'HS2 is going to be an expensive service for the super-rich' notion is coming from the same speakers of nonsense.

 

 

No, it is highly unlikely. Yield management will see to that.

can you imagine the political uproar if, after 100 billion trains were running empty due to high ticket prices?

The same yield management that Ryan air / Easy Jet use to fill their aircraft will be used and that will ensure the fare level is correct

 

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2 hours ago, pete_mcfarlane said:

Remember that a section of British politics and the media will have you believe that the current rail system is simultaneously so expensive that nobody can afford to use it, and incredibly over crowded due to all the people using it. I reckon the 'HS2 is going to be an expensive service for the super-rich' notion is coming from the same speakers of nonsense.

 

 

The media and the general population is quite aware that trains in the UK are simultaneously very expensive to use and also very overcrowded.  It's called "Rip-off Britain".

 

I love the way people on here believe that our rail industry is the victim of some media conspiracy, rather than it being badly run, inept and prone to self-inflicted damage!

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4 minutes ago, Flittersnoop said:

The media and the general population is quite aware that trains in the UK are simultaneously very expensive to use and also very overcrowded.  It's called "Rip-off Britain".

 

I love the way people on here believe that our rail industry is the victim of some media conspiracy, rather than it being badly run, inept and prone to self-inflicted damage!

And there was me thinking you were talking sense and referring to the DfT.....

Then I realised otherwise and switched off.

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6 minutes ago, Flittersnoop said:

The media and the general population is quite aware that trains in the UK are simultaneously very expensive to use and also very overcrowded.  It's called "Rip-off Britain".

But that's not the point I was making, is it? I was claiming that they were pushing two contradictory viewpoints at the same time, to further their own agenda. 

 

I think you'll also find that not all of the population hold the 'rip off Britain' viewpoint. It's far less common in people who've actually been abroad, and seen how much stuff costs there. 

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21 minutes ago, Flittersnoop said:

I love the way people on here believe that our rail industry is the victim of some media conspiracy, rather than it being badly run, inept and prone to self-inflicted damage!

That's very insulting to all the highly skilled, dedicated and very professional railwaymen and women who keep our railways running in good and bad times. Many of them are members of this forum.  I'm afraid that comments like yours are what got the previous thread closed down. Please can we have a bit of respect on here.

 

Jamie

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34 minutes ago, Flittersnoop said:

The media and the general population is quite aware that trains in the UK are simultaneously very expensive to use and also very overcrowded.  It's called "Rip-off Britain".

 

I love the way people on here believe that our rail industry is the victim of some media conspiracy, rather than it being badly run, inept and prone to self-inflicted damage!


Can you please clarify to which group of the industry you are referring....the TOC’s or their long suffering work force?

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