HS2

[mdvle]

also consider this list showing government debt to gdp, and note that the UK government at 80.8% is quite low compared to some other countries - France 98.1%, Canada 89.7%, EU 87.9%, US 107%, Singapore 112%, Japan 238%.

 

Nobody is reliably claiming the US/Singapore/Japan are about to default on their debts, and they all have borrowed significantly more than the UK.

[Mike Storey]

6 hours ago, Phaeton said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52209790

 

That's your funding stuffed then, at least there will be some good come out of this horrendous situation, we cannot build our way out of killing the planet we have to come up with other ways to stop people needing to travel, not facilitate the need.

 

Yet again, you are confusing Operational borrowing with Capital borrowing. There is no way a government will stall recovery by cancelling major projects which are ready to go.

 

Just what on earth do you think everyone is going to do post the apocalypse - make more toilet rolls??

[class26]

1 hour ago, mdvle said:

also consider this list showing government debt to gdp, and note that the UK government at 80.8% is quite low compared to some other countries - France 98.1%, Canada 89.7%, EU 87.9%, US 107%, Singapore 112%, Japan 238%.

 

Nobody is reliably claiming the US/Singapore/Japan are about to default on their debts, and they all have borrowed significantly more than the UK.

 

and let`s remember that even such a huge debt can be inflated away over the years to the point it is insignificant. i remember my father telling that in the last year of is mortgage his monthly payment was £4. That no doubt was a big sum when he first borrowed the money and he was earning less than £10 a month but by the 1980`s it was peanuts relatively speaking.  Same for the national debt. 

[Phaeton]

17 hours ago, Mike Storey said:

Just what on earth do you think everyone is going to do post the apocalypse - make more toilet rolls??

 

Not sure I'm at them moment concentrating on being here to find out

 

16 hours ago, class26 said:

 

and let`s remember that even such a huge debt can be inflated away over the years to the point it is insignificant. i remember my father telling that in the last year of is mortgage his monthly payment was £4. That no doubt was a big sum when he first borrowed the money and he was earning less than £10 a month but by the 1980`s it was peanuts relatively speaking.  Same for the national debt. 

 

But that only works if we continue down the invisible money no manufacturing route, but it's just not sustainable, at some point the bubble must burst & the sand that all this wealth is built on will shift, 2 bedroom terrace houses changing hands for over £500,000 in London is just crazy, but this is what is driving the commuting society, if we solve that problem then people won't need to commute. The biggest help to all of this would be birth control, stop the population explosion, stop each of the religions going for domination by having more bodies than the other. China did it well with their 1 child policy, okay they held onto it too long, but it should be what we all aspire to.

[The Stationmaster]

2 minutes ago, Phaeton said:

 

Not sure I'm at them moment concentrating on being here to find out

 

 

But that only works if we continue down the invisible money no manufacturing route, but it's just not sustainable, at some point the bubble must burst & the sand that all this wealth is built on will shift, 2 bedroom terrace houses changing hands for over £500,000 in London is just crazy, but this is what is driving the commuting society, if we solve that problem then people won't need to commute. The biggest help to all of this would be birth control, stop the population explosion, stop each of the religions going for domination by having more bodies than the other. China did it well with their 1 child policy, okay they held onto it too long, but it should be what we all aspire to.

But exactly what has that got to do with HS2?  I doubt the cost of 2 bedroom houses in London has much  bearing on the level of freight traffic on the WCML  although it might influence commuter numbers (but there are of course many other factors which are taken into account when somebody decides where they would prefer to live).  As far as leisure and business travel are concerned the current situation will be no more than blip - maybe a big blip, maybe a long drawn out blip but still a blip, nothing short of a Govt lock down or control order is going to stop people travelling for a multitude of reasons.

 

And don't forget HS 2 is about a lot more than passenger numbers although that is all quite a few commentators - who ought to know better - seem to think.  It is about line capacity - end of.

[Joseph_Pestell]

18 hours ago, mdvle said:

also consider this list showing government debt to gdp, and note that the UK government at 80.8% is quite low compared to some other countries - France 98.1%, Canada 89.7%, EU 87.9%, US 107%, Singapore 112%, Japan 238%.

 

Nobody is reliably claiming the US/Singapore/Japan are about to default on their debts, and they all have borrowed significantly more than the UK.

 

Do you have the figure for PR China? I think that you will find that their economic expansion, high speed rail network (making this relevant to thread) and other huge infrastructure projects take their debt/GDP ratio way above any of these.

[mdvle]

China's debt to gdp is 50%. (*)

 

My superficial understanding of China is that, as the manufacturer to the world, they have benefited from an abundance of money in-flowing to China thus providing the government with money to pursue these various projects (also related to previous discussion, where people have talked about how places like Thailand are building railways and other infrastructure like crazy, Thailand's debt to gdp is around 43%).

 

Where the problems are raised with China isn't the official debt to gdp, but the off-the-books stuff that is going on - the government backed banks that have been a bit too easy with making loans, and what is described as a shadow banking system.  These all have the potential to make the debt to gdp much higher if they were put on the official books.

 

 

 

* - https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/government-debt-to-gdp?continent=g20

[Trog]

47 minutes ago, Phaeton said:

The biggest help to all of this would be birth control, stop the population explosion, stop each of the religions going for domination by having more bodies than the other. China did it well with their 1 child policy, okay they held onto it too long, but it should be what we all aspire to.

 

I thought that the British population would be falling anyway due to our low birth rate, if it was not for the volume of immigration.

[Northmoor]

10 minutes ago, Trog said:

 

I thought that the British population would be falling anyway due to our low birth rate, if it was not for the volume of immigration.

Correct, in fact this applies to most countries in Western Europe (Italy having the lowest birth rate, ironic being the home of the Catholic church....).

 

World population growth is very little to do with birth rates - even though they are dropping fast in the developing world - but mostly to do with reduced death rates as the major diseases are eradicated.  Life expectancy in some Far Eastern countries has increased by something like a decade in one generation.   As always with this subject I recommend the works of Prof Hans Rosling (RIP) to explain the subject without the hyperbole. 

[The Stationmaster]

15 minutes ago, Trog said:

 

I thought that the British population would be falling anyway due to our low birth rate, if it was not for the volume of immigration.

Somewhat OT but prior to a succession of Govts opening the taps for immigration in the past 30 years the UK population was actually beginning to stabilise at near zero growth/zero decline.  It was of course gradually becoming an ageing population which got the politicos thinking immigration would be a good idea in order to bring in younger people.   I think they overlooked the fact that all people age and therefore you would forever be importing more younger people to support (and then add to) the ever growing ageing population.

[melmerby]

4 minutes ago, The Stationmaster said:

Somewhat OT but prior to a succession of Govts opening the taps for immigration in the past 30 years the UK population was actually beginning to stabilise at near zero growth/zero decline.  It was of course gradually becoming an ageing population which got the politicos thinking immigration would be a good idea in order to bring in younger people.   I think they overlooked the fact that all people age and therefore you would forever be importing more younger people to support (and then add to) the ever growing ageing population.

Without sounding racist I understand that the birth rate amongst the so called "Indigenous" population was actually less than zero but is now more than made up for by the new additions to the population who generally have much higher birth rates

[class26]

2 hours ago, Phaeton said:

 

Not sure I'm at them moment concentrating on being here to find out

 

 

But that only works if we continue down the invisible money no manufacturing route, but it's just not sustainable, at some point the bubble must burst & the sand that all this wealth is built on will shift, 2 bedroom terrace houses changing hands for over £500,000 in London is just crazy, but this is what is driving the commuting society, if we solve that problem then people won't need to commute. The biggest help to all of this would be birth control, stop the population explosion, stop each of the religions going for domination by having more bodies than the other. China did it well with their 1 child policy, okay they held onto it too long, but it should be what we all aspire to.

 

You miss the point i was trying to make. London is crazy accepted but my fathers house was in rural Lincolnshire where there is not a great deal of house inflation however there is a degree off inflation in the economy and even low inflation will erode in time, as long as spread over a long enough time frame 

A degree of inflation is acceptable as the opposite , deflation is destructive.  Non of us thankfully have lived through deflation but even at sat 2|% why would you buy a large item like a car or house today when it would be 2% cheaper in a year or 10 % cheaper in 5 years. the economy would grind to a halt. 

So to get back to my point inflation the dept of HS2 will not be as bad as we think today in 30 years time. 

[Edwin_m]

2 hours ago, melmerby said:

Without sounding racist I understand that the birth rate amongst the so called "Indigenous" population was actually less than zero but is now more than made up for by the new additions to the population who generally have much higher birth rates

The mind boggles as to how one can achieve a birth rate of less than zero.  I thought eating babies was illegal.  

[billbedford]

2 hours ago, melmerby said:

Without sounding racist I understand that the birth rate amongst the so called "Indigenous" population was actually less than zero but is now more than made up for by the new additions to the population who generally have much higher birth rates

 

You mean less than replacement? This would be 2.1 to 2.2 depending on country. 

 

The UK birth rate fell to about 1.6 in the late 80s then rose to about 1.9 and recently has started to fall again after Brexit. This contrasts will Japan, Italy and Germany where the birthrate has been around 1.4 for some time. 

[melmerby]

Just now, billbedford said:

 

You mean less than replacement? This would be 2.1 to 2.2 depending on country. 

 

The UK birth rate fell to about 1.6 in the late 80s then rose to about 1.9 and recently has started to fall again after Brexit. This contrasts will Japan, Italy and Germany where the birthrate has been around 1.4 for some time. 

Yes  0 equals equilibrium a positive number means an increase, a negative number means a decrease over the balancing figure.

[black and decker boy]

With thanks to a post on WNXX, here is the written judgment against Packham

 

https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/R-Packham-v-SST-final-approved-jdugment-for-hand-down-06-04-2020.pdf

[melmerby]

Wow. That's a bit of a legal put down.

I was taken by what seemed to be a bit of a ticking off for including a wodge of irrelevant papers in the pile that were submitted in evidence.

 

 

 

[Edwin_m]

39 minutes ago, melmerby said:

I was taken by what seemed to be a bit of a ticking off for including a wodge of irrelevant papers in the pile that were submitted in evidence.

I wonder how many trees died in vain.  

[pete_mcfarlane]

3 hours ago, Edwin_m said:

The mind boggles as to how one can achieve a birth rate of less than zero.  I thought eating babies was illegal.  

 

Jonathan Swift would approve though.  

[Mike Storey]

7 hours ago, The Stationmaster said:

 

And don't forget HS 2 is about a lot more than passenger numbers although that is all quite a few commentators - who ought to know better - seem to think.  It is about line capacity - end of.

 

I get why you say that Mike, but in reality, apart from freight services, it is all about passenger numbers.

 

For example, of the many variants tested originally, capacity increases were included that increased train lengths, or increased train lengths across all three primary routes, or increased service frequencies by incremental upgrades. These were all to allow an increase in passenger numbers, not just paths. But ultimately, HS2 was chosen as the most promising solution, cost wise, time wise and future demand wise.

 

Line capacity is about running a certain number of (extra) trains. Running a certain number of trains does not define passenger carrying capacity, as high density stock can be used (as per CrossRail), or double deck stock. But running a certain number of trains at higher speeds can increase passenger carrying capacity, because you can have more paths. And so on.

 

The release of train paths, by building HS2, from the classic WCML, and to an extent from the MML and ECML, means they can carry more passengers from other origins (and freight) but will still have the same number of paths.

[pete_mcfarlane]

1 hour ago, black and decker boy said:

With thanks to a post on WNXX, here is the written judgment against Packham

 

https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/R-Packham-v-SST-final-approved-jdugment-for-hand-down-06-04-2020.pdf

It's pretty damning for Lord Berkley as well. 

 

And the last sentence is spot on. 

 

Quote

In any event, the clearance works were long ago authorised by Parliament and there is a strong public interest in ensuring that, in a democracy, activities sanctioned by Parliament are not stopped by individuals merely because they do not personally agree with them.

 

 

[jamie92208]

Having read the judgement  as quickly as I could I see thst it authirised tree felling to start on 3rd April. Can anyone tell us if the work actually took place.

 

Overall it is a very clear and well written judgement and as mentioned above nonebof the clai ants comebout if it very well.  I would be interested as to how costs are being allocated.

 

Jamie

[corneliuslundie]

In recent years there have been increases in life expectancy which have led to increased total population despite dropping birth rates, even allowing for immigration, as the tendency is that over generations as one becomes more prosperous (such as by coming to the UK) birthrates drop. But that increase has now stalled, and may even go into reverse thanks to increased obesity etc.

So it is apparently predicted that total UK population will stabilise and then begin to fall over the next two decades (i think that was the timescale). So eventually the age distribution of the population will settle down. But that will not directly feed into reduced demand for travel, even assuming that individuals do not travel more than at present, There is also a continuing slow flow from the country to the cities, as there has been since Dick Whittington's time. This will probably lead to some increase in demand for transport.

But the whole effect will to be honest be small. 

As will the effect of Covid 19, even at worst predictions. Currently, thanks to increasing life expectancy our 66 million population has about 600,000 deaths annually, or 1500 a week. That is less than one would expect taking a life expectancy of about 80 years, so the number of deaths will increase over the next decade or so.

Some countries have  been suffering birthrates of less than the replacement rate for decades. One example I know of is Serbia.

The problem is that our conventional approaches to economies are based on continually increasing population - as is our funding of the health service, social care etc.

So it is not just railways which may find a falling population a problem.

Jonathan

[david.hill64]

2 hours ago, corneliuslundie said:

So it is apparently predicted that total UK population will stabilise and then begin to fall over the next two decades (i think that was the timescale).

 

Not according to the Office of National Statistics:

 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/nationalpopulationprojections/2018based

 

4,5% growth to 69.4 million by 2028, passing 70 million by 2031 and up to 72.4 million 25 years from now. The projections have come down a little since 2016 estimates. Noteworthy that the proportion of over 85's will double. These, if wanting to be mobile, are less likely to be driving and will likely desire public transport provision.

 

Agreed that the pandemic may amend matters.

[John Tomlinson]

8 hours ago, david.hill64 said:

 

Not according to the Office of National Statistics:

 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/nationalpopulationprojections/2018based

 

4,5% growth to 69.4 million by 2028, passing 70 million by 2031 and up to 72.4 million 25 years from now. The projections have come down a little since 2016 estimates. Noteworthy that the proportion of over 85's will double. These, if wanting to be mobile, are less likely to be driving and will likely desire public transport provision.

 

Agreed that the pandemic may amend matters.

If memory serves, 80% of the increase to 2028 is forecast to come from net immigration, so 20% only from an excess of births over deaths. I would have thought that the immigration figure is subject to considerable variance, in the light of Brexit and the Governments stated intention to reduce immigration significantly from historic levels.

 

John.

 

P.S. Having now read the start of the document, it's 73% net immigration, 27% net births over deaths.

Edited April 10, 2020 by John Tomlinson
P.S.