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23 minutes ago, Northmoor said:

It will be worth it ...

 

Thank you. At last a post to show me a promising future and that the loss of a much-loved wood is going to be worth it in the long run.

 

Instead of a dozen posts jumping on me for even daring to question HS2.

 

I have been in favour of building railways rather than roads all along -- just beginning to wonder if this is the right one. I suspect I'm not the only one.

 

Martin.

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12 minutes ago, Trog said:

The WCML crosses another Grims Dyke

 

That was Grim's Dyke, this is Grim's Ditch. A Ditch is worth more than a Dyke, as any fool knows. A well-known Prime Minister was prepared to die in one. :)

Edited by martin_wynne
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34 minutes ago, martin_wynne said:

 

 

I have been in favour of building railways rather than roads all along -- just beginning to wonder if this is the right one. I suspect I'm not the only one.

 

Martin.

Look, they are not going to cancel phase 1, too much invested and too many jobs now engaged. Much work is visible now around me in the Chilterns. Even if they did cancel it, those “precious woods” are now gone.

 

phase 2a to Crewe is moving forward with tendering underway for the initial packages  

 

we don’t need another mixed traffic railway, we need the best use of capacity for the least intervention. A high speed line gives that as a uniform fleet of high speed services generates the best capacity on the 2 track railway. This in turns releases paths on existing lines which also gain capacity from having a more matched service & speed profile.

 

the sad alternative with no HS2 would undoubtedly be more roads, wider motorways and less freight on rail as DfT prioritised paths for passenger use.

 

the fundamentals of domestic travel aren’t likely to diminish, just look at how busy the motorways are now. HS2 is about the long game. It will not open before 2028. Population grow is predicted to continue. People continue to want to travel. Not everyone can work from home. 

Edited by black and decker boy
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46 minutes ago, black and decker boy said:

Look, they are not going to cancel phase 1, too much invested and too many jobs now engaged. Much work is visible now around me in the Chilterns. Even if they did cancel it, those “precious woods” are now gone.

 

phase 2a to Crewe is moving forward with tendering underway for the initial packages  

 

we don’t need another mixed traffic railway, we need the best use of capacity for the least intervention. A high speed line gives that as a uniform fleet of high speed services generates the best capacity on the 2 track railway. This in turns releases paths on existing lines which also gain capacity from having a more matched service & speed profile.

 

the sad alternative with no HS2 would undoubtedly be more roads, wider motorways and less freight on rail as DfT prioritised paths for passenger use.

 

Yes, but. It all assumes that enough people will want to get from London to Leeds and back in a day. In 50 years time, what for? What will they be doing when they get there?

 

I just don't believe it. The robots building the combine harvesters in Crewe will be controlled from Exeter. And the MD will appear life-size on the video wall.

 

While the grandparents visiting grandkids, students going to uni, backpackers heading for the hills, will all be on the cheaper off-peak services on the WCML.

 

Martin.

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1 hour ago, Northmoor said:

 

It will be worth it, when you hear that airlines are withdrawing Heathrow - Manchester/Birmingham flights (there is a precedent, Inter-City saw off Liverpool flights in the 1980s) due to declining traffic from modal transfer; when you hear of stopping and semi-fast services between Birmingham and Euston being increased from two to three per hour; when towns along the route are growing because of the all the part-time commuters who are moving out of London as the travel (which they are only doing some days of the week) has become tolerable; when traffic on the M40 and M1 is measurably falling in holiday periods because people are getting to Heathrow by rail instead of road.

The Birmingham - Heathrow air service has never been a major route and there have been long periods when there wasn't any at service all.

I suspect it's more a convenient connecting service than a stand alone route.

More people travel to many continental cities than travel to London.

 

Pre-covid there were 7 trains a hour from Birmingham to London most of the day.

3 West Coast, 2 West Midlands Railway & 2 Chiltern (Snow Hill/Moor Street - Marylebone), giving a choice of fast but expensive (WC), slowish and cheapest (WMR) with Chiltern in the middle for speed and cost.

 

As an aside I noticed in the latest Network Rail figures 2019-2020, New Street has now (pre Covid again) more passengers than Euston and is up to 5th busiest station in the UK with the other 9 of the top 10 in London.

The 4 above it all have a load more platforms!

Edited by melmerby
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2 minutes ago, martin_wynne said:

 

Yes, but. It all assumes that enough people will want to get from London to Leeds and back in a day. In 50 years time, what for? What will they be doing when they get there?

 

I just don't believe it. The robots building the combine harvesters in Crewe will be able to be controlled from Exeter. They can now.

 

Martin.

All such things were considered, in depth, as part of the HS2 act passing before parliament. Nothing has changed on that 50 year baseline.

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39 minutes ago, melmerby said:

The Birmingham - Heathrow air service has never been a major route and there have been long periods when there wasn't any service all.

I suspect it's more a convenient connecting service than a stand alone route.


(My Bold)

Its the reverse. There was only a very short period of time from the very the late 70’s or 1980 ‘ish to the mid/late 80’s when LHR-BHX air services were operated, as a feeder service to Heathrow flights. The aircraft were generally small commuter airliners, 19 seater and later on 30 seater. 
There was very low demand and they were never at any point a competitor to rail.

Increased services from BHX to hubs like Amsterdam, Frankfurt and Paris, a vastly improved roster of scheduled direct services to European destinations and the opening of the M40 and M25 to Heathrow killed them off.

 

 

.

Edited by Ron Ron Ron
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9 minutes ago, Ron Ron Ron said:


(My Bold)

Its the reverse. There was only a very short period of time from the very the late 70’s or 1980 ‘ish to the mid/late 80’s when LHR-BHX air services were operated, as a feeder service to Heathrow flights. The aircraft were generally small commuter airliners, 19 seater and later on 30 seater. 
There was very low demand and they were never at any point a competitor to rail.

Increased services from BHX to hubs like Amsterdam, Frankfurt and Paris, a vastly improved roster of scheduled direct services to European destinations and the opening of the M40 and M25 to Heathrow killed them off.

 

 

.

I was going on Northmoor's comment as I am not familiar with the current airline schedules.

 

IIRC also BEA (original) did operate them for a while in the distant past (60s?)

 

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8 hours ago, Ron Ron Ron said:


(My Bold)

Its the reverse. There was only a very short period of time from the very the late 70’s or 1980 ‘ish to the mid/late 80’s when LHR-BHX air services were operated, as a feeder service to Heathrow flights. The aircraft were generally small commuter airliners, 19 seater and later on 30 seater. 
There was very low demand and they were never at any point a competitor to rail.

Increased services from BHX to hubs like Amsterdam, Frankfurt and Paris, a vastly improved roster of scheduled direct services to European destinations and the opening of the M40 and M25 to Heathrow killed them off.

 

 

.

 

For the sake of accuracy it should be pointed out that British Midland operated the BHX - L:HR service with ATP`s with 64 seats. They also used the DC9 on this service with c 90 seats

You are thinking of the Brymon service from BHX to LGW which used Twin Otters which did have c.20 seats 

Whatever , it is true that BHX has services to numerous European hubs.

I lived in brum for 30 years and often hubbed through Frankfurt, Munich , Amsterdam, Copenhagen, Zurich  etc and on these flights I would the bulk of the pax were transiting onwards. Using LHR is a royal pain from brum. 2 hours drive, park up, check in and half a day is lost so the european hub is an attractive alternative if on business. 

Edited by class26
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33 minutes ago, class26 said:

 

For the sake of accuracy it should be pointed out that British Midland operated the BHX - L:HR service with ATP`s with 64 seats. They also used the DC9 on this service with c 90 seats

You are thinking of the Brymon service from BHX to LGW which used Twin Otters which did have c.20 seats .....

 

Sorry I'd forgotten the ATP's being used for a while. Before that they used Sheds (Shorts 330 and 360 - the ugliest passenger aircraft ever and the one least liked by passengers).

I don't recall DC9's being used, at least not normally as opposed to replacing a sick ATP.

Whatever, these services were predominantly used for connecting passengers, routing through Heathrow.

 

.....and yes I was thinking of the Twin Otters (well, it was 35 years ago and more!).

 

 

 

.

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10 hours ago, martin_wynne said:

 

Thank you. At last a post to show me a promising future and that the loss of a much-loved wood is going to be worth it in the long run.

 

Instead of a dozen posts jumping on me for even daring to question HS2.

 

I have been in favour of building railways rather than roads all along -- just beginning to wonder if this is the right one. I suspect I'm not the only one.

 

Martin.

Martin,

You are doing it again. The small area of woodland was inaccessible to the general public, unlike some other better preserved sections of the ditch. If it was much-loved it was so by only a very few people who could ever visit it.

As for a dozen posts jumping on you. You have entered  the discussion very late in the day and have quite clearly not read and understood the data that has been produced in respect of the need for HS2. I would suggest that you study the published information, in particular that on projected population growth. The decision has been taken. Learn to live with it.

Bernard

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47 minutes ago, Ron Ron Ron said:

 

Sorry I'd forgotten the ATP's being used for a while. Before that they used Sheds (Shorts 330 and 360 - the ugliest passenger aircraft ever and the one least liked by passengers).

I don't recall DC9's being used, at least not normally as opposed to replacing a sick ATP.

Whatever, these services were predominantly used for connecting passengers, routing through Heathrow.

 

.....and yes I was thinking of the Twin Otters (well, it was 35 years ago and more!).

 

 

 

.

In those days I was a spotter down at BHX. The DC9 did 3 rotations a day between BHX and Brussels and in between fitted in a peak BHX - Heathrow service. In reality the distance between BHX and LHR is just too small for this service to be viable these days. Recently BA gave up on Leeds - LHR, a significantly greater distance than between Brum / Heathrow  

Edited by class26
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9 minutes ago, Bernard Lamb said:

The decision has been taken. Learn to live with it.

 

That's hardly a ringing endorsement, is it? Are you having doubts too?

 

I am aware of all the data. I'm just no longer sure that I agree with the conclusions. Am I not allowed to say so?

 

Martin.

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49 minutes ago, martin_wynne said:

 

That's hardly a ringing endorsement, is it? Are you having doubts too?

 

I am aware of all the data. I'm just no longer sure that I agree with the conclusions. Am I not allowed to say so?

 

Martin.

I think the crucial point re HS2 is that it is a very long term piece of infrastructure. Suppose the Victorians in the 1800`s had the same doubts then the ECML, WCML , MML GWML etc, etc probably would not be here now.

 

We, in 2020 can have no idea what demand will be in 50, 75 even 100 + years time but it is highly likely that -

Few, if any more motorways will be built

The population will continue grow there roads will become MORE congested

Rail traffic will grow again after C19, even if there is working from home, this will only slow the growth. Zoom will not replace meeting face to face. I speak personally but in my business we have already discounted Zoom going forward for the bulk of our meetings.

 

I don`t have figures but I suspect that as our existing Victorian rail infrastructure ages it gets more expensive to maintain and a new line would have been needed in the not too distant future. If you accept this then HS2 , as one line it will take vast amount of express traffic OFF existing lines freeing up paths for slower stopping services which will get people out of cars thus saving tons and tons of CO2 

Edited by class26
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33 minutes ago, class26 said:

I speak personally but in my business we have already discounted Zoom going forward for the bulk of our meetings.

 

In 50 years time, why would you need meetings? It will be AI software making the decisions.

 

Martin.

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2 minutes ago, class26 said:

 That is your opinion., it is NOT fact

 

Of course. Likewise all the HS2 projections. Almost nothing about 50 years time is fact.

 

We can probably be fairly sure about the time of high tide at Swansea. Which is why tidal power is the one predictable source of natural energy.

 

Martin.

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Maybe in 50 to 100 years time, the robots will want to travel down to London themselves, to catch up with their mates, maybe buy some extra RAM in the sales and visit the historical sites where the humans once controlled life and carried out their primitive economic activities.

 

 

.

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5 minutes ago, martin_wynne said:

Of course. Likewise all the HS2 projections. Almost nothing about 50 years time is fact.

 

So your solution is to do nothing.

 

On that basis, the entire world would stagnate - no project can happen if someone is able to say "But next week we might not need it. so don't bother". Infrastructure requires long-term thinking and so yes, you do have to take a best guess on the future. We might all be killed by an asteroid strike in 10 years time. Or we might not. Demand for travel in all forms has been rising for decades so is it really so far-fetched to say this won't continue? We are certainly going to ship goods around more and more so if traffic is to be moved from road to rail, we need more rail.

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6 minutes ago, Ron Ron Ron said:

Maybe in 50 to 100 years time, the robots will want to travel down to London themselves, to catch up with their mates, maybe buy some extra RAM in the sales and visit the historical sites where the humans once controlled life and carried out their primitive economic activities.

 

Only the boss robots will be on HS2. The worker robots will have standing room only on the off-peak services on WCML.

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9 minutes ago, martin_wynne said:

 

Of course. Likewise all the HS2 projections.

 

Martin.

Except it was based on facts.

The WCML was overcrowded and business was growing, so some method of increasing capacity was needed.

Lengthening trains, upgrading current tracks & new tracks alongside the old were all considered.

They were all rejected as at least second best or extremely disruptive it was decided a new line away from the original would bring the best results.

Edited by melmerby
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Just to enter the discussion rather late, but the talk of HS2 is ironic as HS1 (the Channel Tunnel rail link) is struggling because of the decline in passengers on Eurostar, an article makes interesting reading.

 

Hopefully it's short term, but it illustrates the effect of "events, dear boy" (to misquote Macmillan).

 

jch

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1 hour ago, martin_wynne said:

 

That's hardly a ringing endorsement, is it? Are you having doubts too?

 

I am aware of all the data. I'm just no longer sure that I agree with the conclusions. Am I not allowed to say so?

 

Martin.

No and no. Please go back and read my posts and those by others, who use the bottom end of the WCML as to the need for HS2. It is clear from your remarks that you are not aware of the data so please do not say that you are. I am not going to repeat what was said long ago.

It was you who posted the video. A video made for an extreme political pressure group I might add with an out-right lie as a title. 

My understanding is that we do not do politics on the forum, so people are going to jump on you and tell you to shut up when you act in such a manner. 

Bernard

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