HS2

[RJS1977]

57 minutes ago, phil-b259 said:

 

Rail operators provide the service levels people want!

 

We are not living in the 1950s - people EXPECT frequent trains and not to have to fit their entire day around catching the one or two express services on offer.

 

Evidence PROVES that a more frequent service attracts more users - the psychological angle of having a turn up and go train service cannot be ignored.

 

 

I understand that when Virgin replaced hourly HSTs on the Cross country network with half-hourly Voyagers, ridership went up by something like 40%.

[melmerby]

3 minutes ago, RJS1977 said:

 

I understand that when Virgin replaced hourly HSTs on the Cross country network with half-hourly Voyagers, ridership went up by something like 40%.

And immediately caused overcrowding which wasn't planned for as the total number of seats per day per route hadn't increased by sufficient numbers i.e. from one HST per hour to two 5 car voyagers per hour.

We soon had calls for "why can't they put another carriage on?"

[phil-b259]

3 minutes ago, RJS1977 said:

 

I understand that when Virgin replaced hourly HSTs on the Cross country network with half-hourly Voyagers, ridership went up by something like 40%.

 

Precisely - and thats the problem behind the Voyagers. They were effectively designed on the assumption that the passengers in the 7 coach HST would split in half - each portion getting one of the new half hourly services instead with a modest number of new passengers.

 

Had things worked out that way then there would have been no issues - but the massive boost in frequency attracted vast numbers of new users and the Voyagers couldn't cope!

 

Given the nature of Franchising there was nothing Virgin could do to fix it (i.e. order more trains / lengthen the units),  not helped by the fact the new intensive service required the use of short bay platforms or platform sharing with shorter local trains at key hubs like Reading or Birmingham New Street.

 

[Northmoor]

Just now, melmerby said:

And immediately caused overcrowding which wasn't planned for as the total number of seats per day per route hadn't increased by sufficient numbers i.e. from one HST per hour to two 5 car voyagers per hour.

We soon had calls for "why can't they put another carriage on?"

That 40% rise happened in about 3 months, I know as I had shares in Stagecoach at the time!

The problem is that while the frequency has doubled, regular travellers don't change their habits, so while there is a growth of 40% across the board, the already 90% full train on the hour is now overfull while the train on the half hour (which the regulars do not schedule their day around, and aren't aware is much quieter) runs only part-loaded.  It takes time for these things to even out.

[adb968008]

On 30/01/2021 at 12:53, Tricky-CRS said:

 

Odd thing about this article is that DfT can't predict travel post pandemic reasonable but the anti-lobby can with so called money in the bank guaranties. The fact is no one knows, facts are that post Spanish Flue live carried on as normal, people moved around, economies recovered and eventually grew. After the black death society didn't stop it took time to recover but still moved forward as it was or similar to before. 18 months pent up demand for expression and freedom, I am optimistic we will return to normality eventually, history tells us that.

 

 

Between 1914-1939.. 25 years, the UK had 2 world wars, a Pandemic and a Depression... all 4 of which are “once in a life time events, 3 of which occured in 11 years between 1918 and 1929, subsequently followed by collapse of empire, manufacturing economy, huge inflation, ballooning debt and dependance on overseas influences, it took arguably until the 1990’s to recover from and build a new financial services sector.

 

Since 2008 we've had Austerity, Brexit, Covid, also 3  “once in a lifetime events” in 12 years. Without Manufacturing, an Empire and already ballooned inflation, why are you expecting life to be back to normal in 2022.. ? .. indeed we are the only country who is giving away a vaccine we developed without profit, and i’m not expecting the financial services industry to survive beyond a decade... 

 

post covid, we have to face the realities that were staring at us pre-covid.. so better make that overdue summer holiday a good one, after ABC (Austerity, Brexit, Covid) comes D and E, i’m hoping thats not Depression and Economic collpase... as the international money markets need to have confidence in our abilities to pay our debts.

 

So enlighten me as to the golden nugget / new industry i’m missing, very least just to cheer me up with some optimism.

 

Edited January 31, 2021 by adb968008

[RJS1977]

The other problem being that as the line between Coventry and Leamington is constricted as to how many trains it can handle, still only one train an hour calls at Coventry and Birmingham International (the other going via Solihull), which contributes to the imbalance of loadings between the two services.

 

 

[phil-b259]

1 hour ago, Arun Sharma said:

I fear not. After the black death in 1384, Society did not revert to normal.

 

It depends on what you define by 'normal'.

 

Yes the Black death changed the relationship between workers and their bosses but it didn't elimate the fundamentals in that the work needed to be done - its just the terms which changed.

 

With the current Pandemic I think its pretty clear that when the restrictions end there will be an explosion of people wanting to travel - living like a Hermit for well over a year is not a lifestyle people enjoy and its obvious that the population at large are desperate for the opportunity to be able to be 'out and about' again. There is a massive pent up demand for pleasure travel and as attractions re-open there are lots of opportunities for the railways to benefit from that.

 

Commuting for work in offices will obviously be permanently impacted as working from home has been embraced by so many firms - but equally not everything can be done from home - and nor does everyone have the spare bedroom to turn into a home office! Persons involved in sensitive work or who require access to physical things like laboratories will still need to travel to a company workplace, not to mention the thousands involved in making physical things. Yes many of those will still be travelling to work - but they may have switched to the private car and for the sake of the environment and urban air quality we need to try and attract them back.

 

As such its accepted that things will be different from before - but that does not mean railway travel will never recover to pre-pandemic levels.

[Ron Ron Ron]

52 minutes ago, Fat Controller said:

I believe the main station in Antwerpen/Anvers is to this sort of design.

Indeed. A beautiful station.

 

Wikipedia says....

 

The station has four levels and 14 tracks arranged as follows:

 

Level +1:   The original station, 6 terminating tracks, arranged as two groups of three and separated by a central opening allowing views of the lower levels

 

Level 0:   Houses ticketing facilities and commercial space

 

Level −1:   7 m below street level, 4 terminating tracks, arranged in two pairs separated by the central opening.

 

Level −2:   18 m below street level, 4 through tracks, leading to the two tracks of the tunnel under the city (used by high-speed trains and domestic services towards the north).

 

.

[adb968008]

8 minutes ago, phil-b259 said:

 

 

There is a massive pent up demand for pleasure travel and as attractions re-open there are lots of opportunities for the railways to benefit from that.

 

How long will that last for though...

 

3-6 months as everyone goes out, spends up, gets the credit card bill and returns to work in order to face realities.

 

Life isnt going to be a vacation afterwards... its going to be back to 4-6 weeks a year.

my wife is interviewing right now, every interview asks the same question.. “ Are you planning a summer vacation”... This question is going to be a barrier to employment in the short term, and you can bet come spring employers are going to be bearing down on vacation freedoms quite rapidly...indeed I think short term there maybe a number of employees quitting and a moderate short term hiring market later in the year.

 

Edited January 31, 2021 by adb968008

[Northmoor]

5 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

How long will that last for though...

 

3-6 months as everyone goes out, spends up, gets the credit card bill and returns to work in order to face realities.

 

Life isnt going to be a vacation afterwards... its going to be back to 4-6 weeks a year.

my wife is interviewing right now, every interview asks the same question.. “ Are you planning a summer vacation”... This question is going to be a barrier to employment in the short term, and you can bet come spring employers are going to be bearing down on vacation freedoms quite rapidly...indeed I think short term there maybe a number of employees quitting and a moderate short term hiring market later in the year.

 

Yes and no.  I agree people won't suddenly have more leave - this is the flaw in the assumption of continued exponential growth in aviation - but people will certainly get out and do things on their weekends. 

You say they'll max out the credit card, but it has been noted (and I'm lucky enough to have experienced this personally) that a lot of people who are still in work have saved a lot of money on travel and daily discretionary expenses over the last 10 months.  

[phil-b259]

26 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

How long will that last for though...

 

3-6 months as everyone goes out, spends up, gets the credit card bill and returns to work in order to face realities.

 

Life isnt going to be a vacation afterwards... its going to be back to 4-6 weeks a year.

my wife is interviewing right now, every interview asks the same question.. “ Are you planning a summer vacation”... This question is going to be a barrier to employment in the short term, and you can bet come spring employers are going to be bearing down on vacation freedoms quite rapidly...indeed I think short term there maybe a number of employees quitting and a moderate short term hiring market later in the year.

 

 

 

Remember visitor attractions, and entertainment venues employ an awful lot of people - serving coffee clearing tables, cooking food, etc. As UK manufacturing jobs have declined over the decades much the slack in terms of jobs has been taken up by these service sector ones.

 

As such the Government will be keen to make sure that the inevitable boom in demand for leisure activities once restrictions are eased is sustained because all the time people are earning they are not dependent on benefits.

 

 

 

 

[adb968008]

2 hours ago, phil-b259 said:

As such the Government will be keen to make sure that the inevitable boom in demand for leisure activities once restrictions are eased is sustained because all the time people are earning they are not dependent on benefits.

Priti’s international vacation ban maybe a long term thing then ? Perhaps related to the international recognition of our new Post EU passport.

 

I’m sorry, but come July, the demand for Chav to Spain will resume as soon as its allowed. you cant change some peoples DNA, not Austerity, Covid or Brexit will do that, and even as the Spanish civil war in the 1930’s showed.. people still went there then.

 

Edited January 31, 2021 by adb968008

[phil-b259]

Just now, adb968008 said:

I’m sorry, but come July, the demand for Chav to Spain will resume as soon as its allowed, you cant change some peoples DNA.

 

 

However even that helps create jobs - airport shops, cafes cleaners, parking firms, etc will all need to employ people to service said Chavs.

[Phil Parker]

Road transport has already bounced back, why won't rail do the same? As for WFH it stopped being a novelty some time ago, there will be a lot of people happy to head back to the office at least some of the time. Even if they don't, only 40% of the workforce can work this way. 

 

I agree life won't be a vacation though. The laws on working conditions are already under "examination" so I'd expect us to move to the US model of no paid holiday in the next few years. 

[black and decker boy]

I speak to a lot of managers in a lot of diverse organisations.

 

whilst WFH is very much possible and does bring benefits, 12 months of solid WFH is exposing the downsides.

 

there is a loss of creativity, in spontaneous discussion and problem solving, there is an increase in isolated thinking (and do all the pitfalls that brings) and most of all, a massive increase in fatigue and overwork. Little disagreements & misunderstandings seem to develop more often and fester longer.

 

the benefits of regular co-location of teams is, from the conversations I have, more than recognised now.

 

so I think WFH is definitely here to stay but as a niche perk not as the mainstay of daily work.

 

personally, I’ve been an agile worker for over 4 years, hot desking in our regional office or in project offices, WFH 1 day a week, work at a clients office 1 day a week and also using communal office space / cafes / motorway services too. I’ve relied more on rail doing that than I did when I had a fixed office desk.

[Edwin_m]

4 hours ago, JeffP said:

Just reading up again, and I've noticed quite a few referrals to lines being full.

Forgive me if this is ridiculous, but isn't that the fault of the rail operators, who replaced ten, eleven, coach and longer trains, which could even be strengthened when needed, with, first eight coach, now five coach FIXED formations?

They then ran more frequent trains, effectively using up the pathing?

In the case of the Midland Main Line, which I presume sparked this comment, I think it's entirely reasonable in this day and age for Leicester to have fast services to London, Derby and Nottingham.  People don't want to hang around for an hour for a journey that may take less than half that.  And if the frequency was reduced, I'm not sure what else the capacity could be used for anyway, as the MML will also have a half-hourly service to intermediate stations so doesn't suffer from the sort of issues the WCML has.  

 

Many HS2 services will be two units coupled at the maximum length of 400 metres, which is longer than any passenger train on the UK domestic network.  Some will be a single unit at 200m, including most of those running through onto the classic network, although some may split and join to run at full length on the busier parts of HS2.  

4 hours ago, Ron Ron Ron said:

I've seen artist's graphic images showing a proposed below ground HS2 station at Piccadilly, as opposed to the current plan for an elevated station, alongside the existing Piccadilly station.

What I've not read is any discussion or suggestion that a parallel double deck station might be a possible solution, with the NPR through platforms at the lower, below ground level.

The southern approach tracks having diverged into high (terminus) and low (NPR through platforms), where they emerge from the long tunnel into the city centre.

I believe something like this has also been considered for Piccadilly.  The local council wants the through option, but that would mean diverting the tunnel from the south to run further west and swing eastwards under the city centre to enter Piccadilly from the west and at an elevation that pushes the whole station underground.  I think that re-design would delay the Manchester route by the best part of a decade as well as adding a lot of extra cost.  

[Ron Ron Ron]

12 minutes ago, Edwin_m said:

........I believe something like this has also been considered for Piccadilly.  The local council wants the through option, but that would mean diverting the tunnel from the south to run further west and swing eastwards under the city centre to enter Piccadilly from the west and at an elevation that pushes the whole station underground.  I think that re-design would delay the Manchester route by the best part of a decade as well as adding a lot of extra cost.  

 

I've seen that idea, which to me, a pure layman, seems like lunacy.

 

There are alternative ideas for an underground station, keeping the same approach and alignment from the south, plus the same station surface footprint.

The only difference to the approach lines from the south, is that they stay in a tunnel, rather than emerge from the tunnel and climb onto a viaduct into the new terminus platforms.

 

 

 

 

 

.

[Tricky-CRS]

On 30/01/2021 at 14:43, KeithMacdonald said:

 

@Tricky-CRS - "Facts" are a tricky thing, one has to be careful not to construct a Straw Man argument by using facts that have no contextual relevance.

e.g. there was no Lockdown during the Spanish Flu, so how's that a good example?

 

It's also a "fact" that there wasn't much demand for rail travel before or after the Black Death (1346-53), and it took about 200 years for the size of population to recover to pre Black Death levels.

https://www.thegreatcoursesdaily.com/how-europes-population-in-the-middle-ages-doubled/

 

Granted, they didn't have telecommuting back then either, which would have probably been seen as a form of witchcraft and got you burnt alive as well.

 

Thank you, to you and others who pointed out my errors, I have retracted my original post. I have re-read my post I made assertions that are not facts, just opinions I also forgot a few details. I must be more careful in the future, I usually am, never been quoted this many times before. 

 

[RJS1977]

1 hour ago, black and decker boy said:

 

personally, I’ve been an agile worker for over 4 years, hot desking in our regional office or in project offices, WFH 1 day a week, work at a clients office 1 day a week and also using communal office space / cafes / motorway services too. I’ve relied more on rail doing that than I did when I had a fixed office desk.

 

Whilst not to the same extent, I'm in the process of transferring back to a job I had on temporary promotion a while back. This job involved occasional travel to customer project sites so that we could sign off that the project had been completed successfully before we released the final amount of grant funding. That (for me) involved rail journeys which will be nice to get back to once it is safe to do so.

[adb968008]

1 hour ago, Phil Parker said:

I'd expect us to move to the US model of no paid holiday in the next few years. 

UK holidays are quite generous, when compared to global standards.
Even some EU countries you’ll find health and holidays as a bit of a luxury.. not everyone has French vacations.
I have found the US is increasingly moving towards 4 weeks in professional occupations.

For the first time in my career I am working for a UK company, the position offers “unlimited vacation” and freedom to work remotely, any place I chose ... a big perk when they hired me, but currently a bit pointless.

 

I suspect “unlimited” paid vacation will replace the “20 days” in the future in more companies in the UK, it frees a company from a debt obligation when you leave/rollover. Of course, nothing is unlimited, it still has to be approved.

 

 

[Phil Parker]

3 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

suspect “unlimited” paid vacation will replace the “20 days” in the future in more companies in the UK, it frees a company from a debt obligation when you leave/rollover. Of course, nothing is unlimited, it still has to be approved.

 

Unlimited holidays, but only if approved by your boss. So just as likely no holidays. Add in the removal of the working time directive, minimum wage a roll back of much H&S legislation, all of which would be popular with many MPs and the newspapers...

 

However, I'm depressing myself and getting well off topic. 

[Fenman]

3 hours ago, black and decker boy said:

...

so I think WFH is definitely here to stay but as a niche perk not as the mainstay of daily work.

...

 

It will vary hugely. My organisation has gone to 100% home working, and frankly it's working out pretty well. When we can, we will arrange regular in-person team meetings where we all meet up for a couple of days in a nice hotel somewhere, but the future of the rather nice office in central London is... pending.

 

We can do WFH, some (many) can't. But I'm not sure WFH will in future be as limited as you suggest.

 

The other thing to consider is the staggeringly rapid death of the High Street. Huge numbers of those retail jobs are disappearing, and a chunk of those will have been served by the railway network: most of the replacement jobs in vast Amazon warehouses in the middle of nowhere will be much less likely to be served by rail. That may be a lot of commuters lost to the railway.

 

Paul

 

 

 

Edited January 31, 2021 by Fenman
Clarity

[adb968008]

31 minutes ago, Fenman said:

 

It will vary hugely. My organisation has gone to 100% home working, and frankly it's working out pretty well. When we can, we will arrange regular in-person team meetings where we all meet up for a couple of days in a nice hotel somewhere, but the future of the rather nice office in central London is... pending.

 

We can do WFH, some (many) can't. But I'm not sure WFH will in future be as limited as you suggest.

 

 

Completely agree, our company is exiting every building as the lease expires. 1500 of us will be working from home fulltime.

 

They do have exciting plans for 1/4ly get togethers, it will be hotels, out side adventure parks, even a Safari once its allowed... tbh its sounds pretty fun compared to 200 slide powerpoints in a stuff central london office.

For “in person” meetings, office day rentals, private club rooms (not as exotic as it sounds), hotel meeting rooms etc will be the longer term plan.

 

I think preserved railways even have an opportunity here..a railway for a day, catering and a suitably renovated goods depot conference room doesnt sound too shabby... to put in perspective, Ive regularly done speaking at Hotel conference rooms, which Ive spent well over £10k for a day to hire the venue, catering etc, a few hundred and it will soon top £50k for a day.

 

Edited January 31, 2021 by adb968008

[Ron Ron Ron]

2 hours ago, Phil Parker said:

 

......Add in the removal of the working time directive, minimum wage a roll back of much H&S legislation, all of which would be popular with many MPs and the newspapers......

 

Just the way to get voted out by an unhappy electorate then?

 

Are you suggesting there's an intention to reduce the UK minimum wage to similar levels of many of our European neighbours, Phil ?

 

Monthly (in Euro).

UK  -            1598.69 €    (£8.72 p.h.)

Germany -  1584.20 €.   (£8.26 p.h.)

France -      1539.42 €

Spain -           950 € 

Czech Rep. -  576 €

Portugal -      775.80 €

 

Or maybe match those countries that don't have a minimum wage, like...

Sweden, Denmark, Italy, Finland, Austria, Cyprus

 

.

[62613]

7 hours ago, Arun Sharma said:

I fear not. After the black death in 1384, Society did not revert to normal. The death of between 20 and 40% of the working population spelt the de facto end of the feudal age for all time in England. The shortage of manpower in fields meant that for the first time ever in England, a peasant could charge for his labours  and the 'lords of the manors' had little choice but to pay the going rate - either that or plough their fields themselves. That's not to say that the peasants didn't still have obligations like going to war for their liege lord as locally raised yeomanry but no longer were they serfs. And the rest, as they say, is history.

Invisible ink!