HS2

[Pete the Elaner]

On 04/08/2021 at 09:01, corneliuslundie said:

Much of the discussion on fares seems to be about destinations on HS2. However, since for some destinations all the express long distance services to further destinations now using the WCML will switch to HS2 I am sure that there would be outrage if they were hiked above general national levels.

I regard HS2 as the alternative to widening the WCML. If that had been done instead there would have been no thought of premium fares. I am afraid that the branding as "High Speed" has done more harm than good.

However, I agree with DY144 that post Covid and renationalisation we are in uncharted waters. Another Beeching ahead? I hope not but it depends whether the Treasury or those looking at the future win the arguments.

Jonathan

 

Making a big thing about the high speed aspect of the line was a huge mistake.

I constantly hear "just to save 10 minutes from London to Birmingham" from nay-sayers. They are not interested to hear how moving the fast trains away from the WCML will create more space for slower trains & also freight.

A more regular service attracts passengers.

[melmerby]

1 hour ago, Pete the Elaner said:

 

Making a big thing about the high speed aspect of the line was a huge mistake.

I constantly hear "just to save 10 minutes from London to Birmingham" from nay-sayers. They are not interested to hear how moving the fast trains away from the WCML will create more space for slower trains & also freight.

A more regular service attracts passengers.

Even on a recent BBC update report on it started with:

"HS2, being built to cut the journey time from London to Birmingham to 49 minutes" or words to that effect.

[class26]

1 hour ago, melmerby said:

Even on a recent BBC update report on it started with:

"HS2, being built to cut the journey time from London to Birmingham to 49 minutes" or words to that effect.

I would be interested to see the services today that do Brum to London in 59 minutes ! 

[woodenhead]

15 minutes ago, class26 said:

I would be interested to see the services today that do Brum to London in 59 minutes ! 

I am sure there are a few BMW owners who can

[caradoc]

On 04/08/2021 at 11:21, SamThomas said:

Many of the discussions regarding HS2/classic routes/fare structions are the same as those applied to the Birmingham Toll Relief Road some years ago. The junction layouts were arranged to "encorage" you to easily end up on the toll road if you did not really want to use it.

 

Strange; I've used the M6 Toll northbound and southbound, through choice, many times, but I certainly don't recall any lack of signage resulting in people being forced onto it, quite the opposite.  

[RJS1977]

49 minutes ago, caradoc said:

 

Strange; I've used the M6 Toll northbound and southbound, through choice, many times, but I certainly don't recall any lack of signage resulting in people being forced onto it, quite the opposite.  

 

I don't think Sam is referring to signage.

 

At any motorway junction there is a 'straight ahead' route and a divergence.

 

I think what Sam means is that the junction has been designed so that the 'straight ahead' route leads directly on to the toll road.

[phil-b259]

On 04/08/2021 at 09:01, corneliuslundie said:

.

However, I agree with DY144 that post Covid and renationalisation..

 

 

Can we please drop this 're-nationalisation nonsense!

 

The creation GBR is NOTHING OF THE SORT!

 

(1) Train operations will still be contracted out to the private sector - all that has changed is the financial arrangements

(2) Operational staff will still work for SEPARATE companies (i.e. South Eastern, GWR, TPE, Network Rail etc). This limits the disruption from trade union action as well as preserving a mix of staff contracts and avoids needing to address issues of harmonising them

(3) Trains will still be leased from private sector ROSCOs / banks

(4) Train maintenance will still be contracted out to Siemens and Hitachi and further 'manufacture maintains' deals will be encouraged.

 

It other words apart from some tinkering with the ticketing system GBR is a triumph of style over substance designed to get the politicians off the hook while keeping the Treasury and private business happy by allowing them to continue to convert taxpayers money into health share dividends.

Edited August 5, 2021 by phil-b259

[1E BoY]

Arriving back at Kings Cross this evening from a day out in the Cambridge area, we were met by HS2 protestors at the front of the station who were beating drums and parading a white elephant around with a £170 billion price tag on its trunk!

 

HS2 had an information stand outside the station - so the protestors were out in force.

[melmerby]

4 hours ago, woodenhead said:

I am sure there are a few BMW owners who can

Usually while on the phone, fiddling with the audio, having a kip etc...........

[melmerby]

59 minutes ago, phil-b259 said:

 

Can we please drop this 're-nationalisation nonsense!

 

The creation GBR is NOTHING OF THE SORT!

 

(1) Train operations will still be contracted out to the private sector - all that has changed is the financial arrangements

(2) Operational staff will still work for SEPARATE companies (i.e. South Eastern, GWR, TPE, Network Rail etc). This limits the disruption from trade union action as well as preserving a mix of staff contracts and avoids needing to address issues of harmonising them

(3) Trains will still be leased from private sector ROSCOs / banks

(4) Train maintenance will still be contracted out to Siemens and Hitachi and further 'manufacture maintains' deals will be encouraged.

 

It other words apart from some tinkering with the ticketing system GBR is a triumph of style over substance designed to get the politicians off the hook while keeping the Treasury and private business happy by allowing them to continue to convert taxpayers money into health share dividends.

AFAIAC passenger trains have never been privatised.

The Government owns the rights to the services and lets them to private companies.

These are concessions in normal business parlance. The companies sell their (partially regulated) product in someone else's (HM Government's) space. A bit like perfumes in a department store.

If it were fully privatised anybody could operate any service they wanted, anywhere, but they can't.

 

IMHO it's an idiotic mish mash.

[Edwin_m]

45 minutes ago, melmerby said:

Usually while on the phone, fiddling with the audio, having a kip etc...........

At least they're not distracted by trying to use the indicators.  

[caradoc]

11 hours ago, RJS1977 said:

 

I don't think Sam is referring to signage.

At any motorway junction there is a 'straight ahead' route and a divergence.

I think what Sam means is that the junction has been designed so that the 'straight ahead' route leads directly on to the toll road.

 

OK, but given the relative quietness of the M6 Toll compared to the M6 proper the cunning plan doesn't appear to have worked !

[corneliuslundie]

"Train operations will still be contracted out to the private sector - all that has changed is the financial arrangements". Agreed that in fact the railway system was never privatised, so I made a bad choice of words.

But the big difference, from what I have read, is that previously the franchise operator was taking the risk, deciding services etc (though with a great deal of interference from DaFT), whereas in future the franchise operator will simply provide what DaFT asks for with little risk. Certainly, in Wales the relationship between ATW and government, for example, and TFW and the Welsh Assembly, is different, with a management contract now rather than a franchise under the previous system.

But the unknowns are still there whatever terms we use for the relationship. And the Treasury can still not see more than about five minutes into the future. While of course we have the politicians we deserve (so I am told though I don't know what bad things I ever did to deserve those we have).

Jonathan

[Pandora]

On 05/08/2021 at 20:48, 1E BoY said:

Arriving back at Kings Cross this evening from a day out in the Cambridge area, we were met by HS2 protestors at the front of the station who were beating drums and parading a white elephant around with a £170 billion price tag on its trunk!

 

HS2 had an information stand outside the station - so the protestors were out in force.

There is a piece in Private Eye published 6th August 2021, titled "Red Alert"   reporting the opinion of the  Govt  infrastructure and Projects Authority,   phase 1 is status Red-Amber meaning delivery status "in doubt"  phase 2 is full red,  "unachievable".  assumptions in the HS2 business case  were 2% annual growth of the economy from 2015 to 2035, a figure somewhat  dubious due to Covid and the great reset of a post-covid economy. Private Eye's assessment  of HS2 Status "White Elephant"

[Pandora]

On 05/08/2021 at 20:48, 1E BoY said:

Arriving back at Kings Cross this evening from a day out in the Cambridge area, we were met by HS2 protestors at the front of the station who were beating drums and parading a white elephant around with a £170 billion price tag on its trunk!

 

HS2 had an information stand outside the station - so the protestors were out in force.

There is a piece in Private Eye published 6th August 2021, titled "Red Alert"   reporting the opinion of the  Govt  infrastructure and Projects Authority,   phase 1 is status Red-Amber meaning delivery status "in doubt"  phase 2 is full red,  "unachievable".  assumptions in the HS2 business case  were 2% annual growth of the economy from 2015 to 2035, a figure somewhat  dubious due to Covid and the great reset of a post-covid economy. Private Eye's assessment  of HS2 Status "White Elephant"

[mdvle]

38 minutes ago, Pandora said:

There is a piece in Private Eye published 6th August 2021, titled "Red Alert"   reporting the opinion of the  Govt  infrastructure and Projects Authority,   phase 1 is status Red-Amber meaning delivery status "in doubt"  phase 2 is full red,  "unachievable".  assumptions in the HS2 business case  were 2% annual growth of the economy from 2015 to 2035, a figure somewhat  dubious due to Covid and the great reset of a post-covid economy. Private Eye's assessment  of HS2 Status "White Elephant"

 

Ignoring your 2 posts, there are another 2 posts in this thread in the last week reporting the exact same story - thus it has already been covered.

 

As for Private Eye and/or whoever is commenting on the growth projections - if they could in 2015 accurately predict what has happened, both to the economy and to the passenger numbers, in 2020 and 2021 then I might think they should be given some serious consideration as to what will happen in the next 15 years of that business case period.

 

But I suspect I am safe that they didn't predict the last 18 months, and thus any of their predictions for the next 15 years can safely be ignored - as can any conclusions made based on those predictions.

 

(hint: the HS2 business case based on 2% annual growth from 2015 to 2035 doesn't actually predict an exact 2% of growth each year for 20 years - it is based on an average growth of 2% per year for that 20 years precisely because in long term guessing you can expect both bad years and good years - more precisely, in a 20 year period you can expect at least one if not two recessions).

[corneliuslundie]

And if you decide to "re-assess" a project you delay it and surprise, surprise, it is now late. And will cost more because of the delay. So on their calculation method it eventually automatically becomes "red". And when you show that the re-assessment has caused an increase in costs and a delay, you then demand a re-assessment, and so on. If you want to scupper a public sector project that is the easy way to do it, regardless of its merits.

Cynical? Moi? Surely not.

Jonathan

 

[Northmoor]

59 minutes ago, corneliuslundie said:

And if you decide to "re-assess" a project you delay it and surprise, surprise, it is now late. And will cost more because of the delay. So on their calculation method it eventually automatically becomes "red". And when you show that the re-assessment has caused an increase in costs and a delay, you then demand a re-assessment, and so on. If you want to scupper a public sector project that is the easy way to do it, regardless of its merits.

Cynical? Moi? Surely not.

Jonathan

 

I remember an academic on the radio a few years ago describing the impact of recording statistics in the public sector.  He was talking about the impact on the NHS but it could just as easily have been public infrastructure projects; the analogy was with waiting staff in a restaurant.

 

There has been a complaint from a customer about one of the dishes served.  The waiter now needs to return to the kitchen and fill in a form recording the nature of the complaint, who made the dish and where the ingredients came from etc.  Having completed the form(s), the waiter now serves the dishes which have been standing for 4-5 minutes.  Half the customers complain these are cold. so the waiter returns them to the kitchen and completes the forms for each.  There are now a dozen more customers complaining that their meals are taking too long, but the forms must be completed as they are a mandatory legal requirement.........

[melmerby]

On 06/08/2021 at 07:19, caradoc said:

 

OK, but given the relative quietness of the M6 Toll compared to the M6 proper the cunning plan doesn't appear to have worked !

It always amuses me that lorries generally won't use it because of the costs.

But we are told that time is money and late deliveries cost lots.

So for a relatively small upfront cost which they refuse to pay, transport companies are prepared to drive through Brum on the M6 with all it's delays, arriving at their destination up to an hour later, presumably having added considerably to the cost of the delivery!

Edited August 7, 2021 by melmerby

[Arun Sharma]

29 minutes ago, melmerby said:

It always amuses me that lorries generally won't use it because of the costs.

But we are told that time is money and late deliveries cost lots.

So for a relatively small upfront cost which they refuse to pay, transport companies are prepared to drive through Brum on the M6 with all it's delays, arriving at their destination up to an hour later, presumably having added considerably to the cost of the delivery!

Apropos of nothing whatsoever and slightly OT, I have occasional reason to travel along the M42/M6 through Brum as well as the M6 toll.

Regarding the true cost of transporting 'stuff' by HGV as opposed to rail, there are various extrapolations on Wiki that suggest the  damaging impact of a 30ton plus HGV on a concrete road surface [compared to a family car] is somewhere vastly in excess of a simple comparison of their axle loadings and/or weight.

The M6[T] obviously records how many private cars and HGVs use the road. Accepting that the HGVs tend to stay in the inside line, it ought to be possible to compare the damage rates per mile of comparable lengths of M6 and M6 [T]  over time [as well as comparing inside with centre lane damage] to work out any excess damage caused by HGVs  using a road. Whether such could be used as a basis for taxing vehicles by weight/damage caused is something best left to the Treasury.

If we are to claim that it makes more sense to transport goods by rail than by HGV, then we need to start thinking about using actual costs to prove it.

 

[Northmoor]

Since suspension works on the basis of a damped spring and an oscillating spring "accelerates" to its no-load state, you can assume that the damage to a road is a function of the square of the axle load.  However, I seem to remember that its actually proportional to the cube of the load, so a truck at maximum load could easily do 500 times as much damage to the carriageway compared with a car.

[corneliuslundie]

My removal man was obviously more sensible than many. When he brought our things from Kent (in store) to Newtown he used the M6 Toll. He explained that it was cheaper overall.

A bit off topic though. But a chance to thank RonRonRon for his photographic updates of progress. Rather more useful than endless pontification by everyone (including me, and not the best word but I can't think of a better one) about the future phases.

Jonathan

[boxbrownie]

12 hours ago, melmerby said:

It always amuses me that lorries generally won't use it because of the costs.

But we are told that time is money and late deliveries cost lots.

So for a relatively small upfront cost which they refuse to pay, transport companies are prepared to drive through Brum on the M6 with all it's delays, arriving at their destination up to an hour later, presumably having added considerably to the cost of the delivery!

Anytime we’ve ever had to go that way we always use the toll route, so much more pleasant and easier, but it’s a very occasional usage pattern, no way would I use it on a regular basis…..if we did we’d probably find a long way around using minor roads just to avoid the old M-Way traffic.

 

I wonder if a lot of the truck deliveries are using contract drivers who if they took the toll would be liable to pay themselves rather than the company so are just happy to sit in traffic?

[Ron Ron Ron]

On my half dozen or so  journeys each year from the South Coast to Cheshire, I always use the M6 Toll without fail.

The price is worth it for the relatively relaxed and pleasurable driving experience, which is a welcome break from the much busier, demanding and fatiguing majority of the route (M27, M3, A34, M40, M42 and the M6 north of Brum), all of which can be incredibly busy.

If only the whole journey was on such a pleasant length of motorway. I'd gladly pay for using it, but sadly it will probably never happen in my lifetime.

 

As for lorries on the M6 Toll, these have noticeably increased in number over recent years, particularly at peak times when the M6 (and M5)  through Birmingham are congested.

Clearly some drivers, or their companies, value the time saving.

The other thing that's changed are the long queues for the tolls at busier times. That never used to be the case.

 

 

.

[SamThomas]

Always seem to get the "lorries are more harmful to the road surface" comments. HGV's pay an obsence amount of Road Fund Licence & Duty on diesel which (in theriory) pays for the use of the roads.

Most HGV's thesedays have air suspension which is kinder to the roads.

Poor maintence of the road contributes to it's own demise - the smoother the road suface the less vibration.

Mass transfer of goods back to the rail network will never happen - the infrastructure is no longer there & will never have the flexibility of a truck which can be re-routed for the cost of a message to the on-board telematics.

We can also aportion some of the blame to ourselves because we want everything "next day" - road transport from HGV's to white van man gives us that.