HS2

[caradoc]

2 hours ago, Trog said:

By the time you had built a new line to bypass sharing the old Met tracks into London,  a connection into Brum from somewhere south of Rugby and opened up all the tunnels and bridges to a suitable loading gauge what would the likely saving be?

 

Not to mention bypassing Leicester and Nottingham (or rebuilding the line right through those cities, which would make HS2 opposition look like a tea party) and destroying the Great Central Railway and the GCR (N); We're as well with a purpose built new railway, which will serve, just as the WCML has, for decades and centuries to come. 

[Tricky-CRS]

6 hours ago, Hibelroad said:

I must say I am no big fan of HS2 but I am appalled at the ever spiralling cost, pushing 150bn now. The original estimate was 33bn and I remember some head of HS2 recently saying something like it will not go a penny over 48bn or strike me dead. Surely if there was ever a business case it has long gone. 

So my prediction, it will not go beyond Birmingham and other works will be abandoned by a future government. It will never be high speed, just a relief line which gets sold off to private investment  for a £1. Time will tell. 

 

 

I must say never heard the 150 billion number, cost has gone up as from my understanding rollingstock now included, more tunnelling to keep parts of the country quiet, land and property price increases, inflation etc. 

 

Your prediction is also wrong already, as it has approval to Crewe which is North of Birmingham. I suspect it might get to Manchester but eastern leg hangs in the wind.

[Pandora]

1 hour ago, Tricky-CRS said:

 

 

I must say never heard the 150 billion number, cost has gone up as from my understanding

 

 

I have never seen £150bn in print,  Lord Berkeley of the Oakervee  Committee quotes a figure of  £142bn in a recent letter to the Cabinet office

[jamie92208]

2 hours ago, Pandora said:

I have never seen £150bn in print,  Lord Berkeley of the Oakervee  Committee quotes a figure of  £142bn in a recent letter to the Cabinet office

I'm afraid that Lord Berkeley has very little credibility and I would not not believe any estimate that he publishes.

 

Can we please stick to the actual constructjon of HS2 and not constantly rehash the whys and wherefores.

 

Jamie

Edited August 28, 2021 by jamie92208

[Pandora]

On 27/01/2020 at 20:19, Mike Storey said:

Hi

 

Given the HS2 Review thread has been shut down, just when it is starting to get interesting, I thought I would start a new one.

 

Three items for a kick off:

 

http://www.infrastructure-intelligence.com/article/jan-2020/national-audit-office-slams-basic-failings-hs2-being-over-budget-and-behind

 

http://www.infrastructure-intelligence.com/article/jan-2020/hs2-right-project-wrong-pitch-public

 

https://www.nao.org.uk/report/high-speed-two-a-progress-update/

 

These would seem to highlight a basic deficit between:

 

a) treasury rules on the allowance for contingency at an early stage of major projects

b) the rules between advocacy between HMG and HS2 Ltd

c) the difference between the certainty of costs for Phase 1 & 2A, and Phase 2B.

 

Certainly, one aspect that shouts out is that the £88 billion (or £106 billion - take your pick) consists of 40% contingency now. NAO now seems satisfied that this is adequate (with caveats) for Phase 1 & 2A) but may prove inadequate for Phase 2B.

The above is post 1 of the thread for HS2, it seems the originator of the thread  did  not constrain posts to  the bricks and mortar of the construction of HS2, note the first two of the three links.  Recent posts have  concerned the issue of the budget for the project, the rumours of the   mothballing of the Leeds phase to save £40bn

[pete_mcfarlane]

2 hours ago, jamie92208 said:

I'm afraid that Lord Berkeley has very little credibility and I would not not believe any estimate that he publishes

And it's standard operating procedure for opponents of Government projects to produce exaggerated cost figures. 

[Northmoor]

13 hours ago, Hibelroad said:

I must say I am no big fan of HS2 but I am appalled at the ever spiralling cost, pushing 150bn now. The original estimate was 33bn and I remember some head of HS2 recently saying something like it will not go a penny over 48bn or strike me dead. Surely if there was ever a business case it has long gone. 

So my prediction, it will not go beyond Birmingham and other works will be abandoned by a future government. It will never be high speed, just a relief line which gets sold off to private investment  for a £1. Time will tell. 

Sir, may I recommend listening to "The Briefing" on the BBC? 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000z0rh 

It was R4 this morning, when coincidentally I was driving up the M40 which approximately follows the route of HS2.  It will answer a lot of your points on costs, why they are what they are and explained by people who understand how large construction projects are completed, how government works and how the two are not always compatible.  Crucially the people explaining these issues have no axe to grind for/against HS2.

[Pandora]

Lord Berkeley is pro-HS2,  but objects to the current form of the project,  reading  his personal  "Oakervey Review" his stance being  the project is over-specified and therefore of excessive cost,. His vision is an HS2 with a modest reduction in line speed  with a reduction  to  14 trains per hour capacity  to save £40 bn , an HS2 of   14 trains per hour and a line speed reduction  would align  HS2 with other world-class high-speed lines and  In the light of the risk to the  HS2 leg to Leeds, slated for cancellation to save money,  the Berkeley specification would permit the retention of the Leeds facility within reduced budget.

Edited August 29, 2021 by Pandora

[62613]

8 minutes ago, Pandora said:

Lord Berkeley is pro-HS2,  but objects to the current form of the project,  reading  his personal  "Oakervey Review" his stance being  the project is over-specified and therefore of excessive cost,. His vision is an HS2 with a modest reduction in line speed  with a reduction  to  14 trains per hour capacity  to save £40 bn , an HS2 of   14 trains per hour and a line speed reduction  would align  HS2 with other world-class high-speed lines and  In the light of the risk to the  HS2 leg to Leeds, slated for cancellation to save money,  the Berkeley specification would permit the retention of the Leeds facility within reduced budget.

If we can afford to spend £130 billion in a single year on the NHS, or £50 billion a year (?) on defence, we can afford to spend £140 billion over 20 years on HS2; particularly as HS2 in not being paid for up front, like so many of the costs for the two items mentioned, but by loans which can be spread over longer periods (a bit like the first Severn bridge). 

[Mike Storey]

1 hour ago, Pandora said:

Lord Berkeley is pro-HS2,  but objects to the current form of the project,  reading  his personal  "Oakervey Review" his stance being  the project is over-specified and therefore of excessive cost,. His vision is an HS2 with a modest reduction in line speed  with a reduction  to  14 trains per hour capacity  to save £40 bn , an HS2 of   14 trains per hour and a line speed reduction  would align  HS2 with other world-class high-speed lines and  In the light of the risk to the  HS2 leg to Leeds, slated for cancellation to save money,  the Berkeley specification would permit the retention of the Leeds facility within reduced budget.

 

Berkeley 's "vision" is only for freight and in the past he wanted billions spent on freight routes and facilities,  rightly or wrongly.  His stance against the settled plan for HS2 goes right back to the beginning and his tactic of overestimating that to which he objects and underestimating his own versions, using suspect disaffected "experts", makes his opinions questionable, at best.

 

The key issue for Phase 2b surrounds the inclusion of NPR or HS3 if you prefer. Until we have clarity on that later this year (we are told), every other speculation is just that.

[Edwin_m]

1 hour ago, Pandora said:

Lord Berkeley is pro-HS2,  but objects to the current form of the project,  reading  his personal  "Oakervey Review" his stance being  the project is over-specified and therefore of excessive cost,. His vision is an HS2 with a modest reduction in line speed  with a reduction  to  14 trains per hour capacity  to save £40 bn , an HS2 of   14 trains per hour and a line speed reduction  would align  HS2 with other world-class high-speed lines and  In the light of the risk to the  HS2 leg to Leeds, slated for cancellation to save money,  the Berkeley specification would permit the retention of the Leeds facility within reduced budget.

If the service is reduced to 14 trains per hour then which ones do you cut?  Probably those going to York and beyond, because they are only half an hour or so quicker on HS2 than the existing ECML times.  A reduction in HS2 line speed (along with likely minor ECML accelerations) would reduce or eliminate that differential.  This would of course weaken the case for the eastern leg by removing some of the trains that would use it.  

Edited August 29, 2021 by Edwin_m

[Pandora]

A Paper from the University of Birmingham  concerning the technicalities of High Speed Train Operation and line capacity with a references to UK HS2 is attached, the author promotes the opinion, HS2 have used an too high a figure for braking deceleration, and considers considers 16 tph to be a sensible  figure for HS2 operation

high-speed-railway-capacity.pdf

Edited August 29, 2021 by Pandora

[Stevebr]

This is an interesting paper.  The latest timetable information from HS2 is that overall, the overall time from HS2 Euston to Birmingham Curzon Street is 48.5 minutes with 2 minutes recovery time included. I enclose a simulation which I ran a while ago which shows a time of a whisker under 47 minutes inclusive of the stops at Old Oak and Birmingham Interchange which uses the characteristics of the AGV11 high speed train and the published line speed limits (max 360 kph/224 mph) and gradients. The maximum acceleration achieved was 5%g or 0.49m/s2 (4% up to 10 mph) while the maximum deceleration was capped at 4% g or 0.39 m/s2.  The 2018 HS2 train technical specification requires the unit to be able to achieve a time of 45 minutes 30 seconds which the simulation indicated would require acceleration and deceleration rates of 6% g (0.59 m/s2).  The 18 trains per hour still looks do-able with 17 being currently forecast with 1 spare path.  Train headway is 3 minutes with every 3rd train followed by a 4-minute gap. The confirmation of a grade separation at Birmingham Interchange makes the schedule look possible. Note that for Phase 1 and 2a the maximum is 10 trains per hour.

[Stevebr]

The real question is whether there is the traffic for 17 or 18 trains per hour. 3 trains per hour to Birmingham with no intermediate calls looks optimistic for most of the week post COVID if business traffic does not improve.

[corneliuslundie]

I have been assuming that "levelling up" is likely to lead to an increase in travel between London and the "north" (even if just politicians making sure they are seen there!!!). Seriously, it does not really matter what the situation is now or in the next five years. What matters is the amount of travel when the line opens and no-one has a clue whether that will be more or less than predicted when the project started. But it would be extremely foolish to base maximum capacity on what is needed this week, or even this year, not really this decade.

Jonathan

[Mike Storey]

21 minutes ago, Stevebr said:

The real question is whether there is the traffic for 17 or 18 trains per hour. 3 trains per hour to Birmingham with no intermediate calls looks optimistic for most of the week post COVID if business traffic does not improve.

 

This was covered several pages back. In any event, it is about demand in 20-40 years,  not next week.

 

[martin_wynne]

56 minutes ago, Stevebr said:

The real question is whether there is the traffic for 17 or 18 trains per hour. 3 trains per hour to Birmingham with no intermediate calls looks optimistic for most of the week post COVID if business traffic does not improve.

 

 

 

[billbedford]

Who decided to give the driver a milkman's uniform?

[Ron Ron Ron]

9 hours ago, Stevebr said:

……. 3 trains per hour to Birmingham with no intermediate calls looks optimistic for most of the week post COVID if business traffic does not improve.

As already said, it’s about providing capacity for the coming decades.

Not all intercity rail travel is business travel either.

Then consider the growing population. The UK population has grown by 10 million in the last 20 years and despite fluctuating predictions, is expected to pass 70m, sometime later this decade. 
With that population growth, will come an increased demand for travel, even if people are individually making fewer journeys.

 

Note there are currently 3 fast trains per hour between London and Birmingham (2 from Euston + 1 from Marylebone), plus 2 stoppers ( one from each London terminus).

 

 

 

.

[woodenhead]

I am constantly surprised how many people travel from Manchester to Birmingham and they currently have to make do with only Cross Country doing direct services, most of this appears to be leisure.  A HS2 service that stops at Birmingham (is that planned or will north services just by-pass Brum?) would be good.

[Ron Ron Ron]

9 hours ago, woodenhead said:

…..A HS2 service that stops at Birmingham (is that planned or will north services just by-pass Brum?) would be good.

Services between London and points north of Birmingham, will not stop at Birmingham.

Some will stop at Birmingham Interchange, near the airport and NEC, but not all.

 

There will be Birmingham to Manchester services and also Birmingham to other destinations to the north.

 

 

.

Edited August 31, 2021 by Ron Ron Ron

[Bernard Lamb]

Goods news and bad news.

The remains of a Saxon church have been found while investigating the area around St Mary's old church Stoke Mandeville. There are several open days coming up.

Travelling into Euston the other day I noticed a series of large circular holes in the blue engineering brick walls visible as you approach the station from Camden.

Expert care and conservation work on the one hand and blatant vandalism on the other.

Bernard

[Ron Ron Ron]

South Ruislip.

 

 

 

.

[Edwin_m]

8 hours ago, Ron Ron Ron said:

South Ruislip.

 

 

 

.

Looks like they've opened up a big tin of track colour and got together some aerosols for weathering it.  

[JeffP]

On 30/08/2021 at 22:53, billbedford said:

Who decided to give the driver a milkman's uniform?

Or make the blue pullman sound like an early Black and Decker drill?