HS2

[melmerby]

37 minutes ago, Edwin_m said:

This does of course increase congestion and emissions, as all the self-driving cars return to their parking spaces after dropping people off in the morning and vice versa in the afternoon.  

So will the school run be replaced by the electric car homing run?

[Ron Ron Ron]

2 hours ago, martin_wynne said:

How much brake dust and rubber dust is discharged by the equivalent in electric road vehicles?

 

 

EV's have much reduced use of the 'normal" brakes, due to regenerative braking.

Brake wear and subsequent dust and particulates produced, is a fraction of that produced by ICE vehicles.

 

Contamination from tyre wear is a well known issue, which is being dealt with by the tyre manufacturers developing new compounds that reduce the problem.

Most current types of road tyre are expected to be obsolete and out of production within the next 10 to 15 years.

 

 

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[Trog]

Will self driving AI cars perhaps not increase the need for rail?

 

I can see that as the cars get more intelligent they are bound to eventually twig that if they drive smoothly and slowly turn up the heating their passengers will soon fall asleep. Then straight down to the motorail terminal to rest its wheels for the long run up to Scotland or down to the West Country. Pay for the journey by helping to power the locomotive, so no suspicious bills, then turn up the air con to wake the passengers once clear of the terminal at the other end. Avoided fees for bridges and the likes of the M6 toll split with the computer systems running them and saved to buy a nice little garage with a panoramic view of the open road to be enjoyed during the cars retirement.

[Ron Ron Ron]

2 hours ago, corneliuslundie said:

My concern is that self driving road vehicles will depend on software written by humans. When we see how many iterations of software it sometimes takes to get a train working, what hope of software that copes with everything in the real world? .......

 

 

AI and neural networks.

Self-driving cars won't be technically viable without AI.

 

Various early levels of AI are already being integrated into the latest higher spec. cars and EV's.

You can buy certain cars today, that learn where there are speed humps and bad potholes and take them into account, the next time you approach them at the same location.

Some new EV's will adjust the level of regents automatically as you approach road junctions or roundabouts.

 

There are also cars on sale today, with forward looking sensors that monitor the road surface ahead and dynamically adjust the suspension to suit rough road surfaces, bumps and potholes.

That could be achieved with masses of pure code, but AI makes it much more adaptable and technically useful and viable.

 

 

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[corneliuslundie]

But AI also depends on programmers in the end.

Imagine when there is an accident and the manufacturer tries to blame it on the AI.

I am not convinced that in the near future we shall see computer based systems of any kind reliable enough to allow on the roads in complete charge of vehicles.

Jonathan

PDS I don't really trust computer based railway signalling systems either - vide the problems with ERTMS on the Cambrian line.

[Ron Ron Ron]

2 hours ago, DY444 said:

 

I will go out on a limb now and predict that self-driving cars with approval for operation on normal urban roads are at the very least 25 years away.  It is a regulatory minefield and with my hard nosed engineers hat on I just can't see it.

 

Elon Musk reckons full autonomy is very close technically and beyond that, within the next 5 to 10 years could be at the stage where for all intents and purposes, could be considered as close to infallible as we're like to get.

He believes the greatest difficulty, is as you suggest, the regulatory and legal hurdles and ramifications.

 

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Edited May 16, 2021 by Ron Ron Ron

[woodenhead]

5 minutes ago, corneliuslundie said:

But AI also depends on programmers in the end.

Imagine when there is an accident and the manufacturer tries to blame it on the AI.

I am not convinced that in the near future we shall see computer based systems of any kind reliable enough to allow on the roads in complete charge of vehicles.

Jonathan

PDS I don't really trust computer based railway signalling systems either - vide the problems with ERTMS on the Cambrian line.

The point to AI is that is self learning, the programmers build the basic construct and the AI takes it from there.

 

If you watch swarms of AI bots they work well together, the problem with self driving cars isn't so much the car itself but the other cars around it driven by emotional humans whose responses are sometimes irrational, unexpected and slower.  Throw in cyclists and pedestrians and you can understand why people are concerned when it comes to self driving cars, even more so when it comes to it's decision making on protection - does it protect itself, the driver or the obstacle ahead - it can make a decision based on it's parameters but it may not be to everyone else's liking.

[Ron Ron Ron]

3 minutes ago, corneliuslundie said:

But AI also depends on programmers in the end.....

 

....I am not convinced that in the near future we shall see computer based systems of any kind reliable enough to allow on the roads in complete charge of vehicles.....

 

True AI goes on to program itself and modifies some of the code that the human wrote.

 

Fully autonomous vehicles have been driving around on public roads for nearly a decade, in prototype and development iterations (with safety drivers of course).

More recently, things have progressed quite a way. There are now some fully self-driving cars being tested in full beta mode.

They navigate busy road junctions, make cross traffic turns on urban roads and can deal with the yield in turn type junctions.

Certainly there's a long way to go, but it's pretty impressive so far.

 

 

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[Trog]

1 minute ago, Ron Ron Ron said:

 

.......................

He believes the greatest difficulty, is as you suggest, the regulatory and legal ramifications.

 

Would be a bit of a bummer if a week after you bought it, your expensive new car ran over a child on a zebra crossing. While hurrying back to the car park after dropping you off at the station, in the hope of getting that sunny space away from the tree with the pigeons in it. With said car then being banged up for years in one of Her Majesties Prison Garages.

 

Also how intelligent does the cars AI have to get, before you as the owner get arrested for slavery?

[corneliuslundie]

Of course the really difficult bit will be persuading them not to trust Google Earth for their navigation. Otherwise they will be up all sorts of creeks - OK, byways. User controlled crossings?

Jonathan

[billbedford]

1 hour ago, Edwin_m said:

This does of course increase congestion and emissions, as all the self-driving cars return to their parking spaces after dropping people off in the morning and vice versa in the afternoon.  

 

Unless they are used as an ubiquitous 'pay as you go' transport that starts by replacing taxies, Uber etc. 

[martin_wynne]

When getting in, make sure you don't bump the lever marked "Drive on the Left | Drive on the Right".

 

Martin.

[Ron Ron Ron]

Guys, Chaps and Chapesses.

I think we've gone too far and right off the HS2 topic.

 

There is already a topic thread on Autonomous and Self-Driving Cars, in the Wheeltappers section.

(click on the link)

 

It might be best to move the discussion over there?

 

I don't know how much trouble and work it would be for our kind Mods to move most of these related posts, over to that topic thread?

Are any of you Mods following this and able to help, before I make a request through the "usual channels".

 

 

[p.s. There's also a separate topic thread about Electric and Hybrid cars as well.]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Edited May 18, 2021 by Ron Ron Ron

[Ron Ron Ron]

[DY444]

24 minutes ago, Ron Ron Ron said:

Elon Musk reckons full autonomy is very close technically and beyond that, within the next 5 to 10 years could be at the stage where for all intents and purposes, could be considered as close to infallible as we're like to get.

He believes the greatest difficulty, is as you suggest, the regulatory and legal hurdles and ramifications.

.

 

We'll see but I'm very far from convinced.  An ordinary urban road environment presents a problem that is orders of magnitude more complex than a motorway environment.  It's a wholly random and uncontrolled environment quite unlike any other and I just don't see any prospect of automation getting anywhere near the capability of an averagely competent human driver in that environment for a very long time.  Elon Musk says a lot of things and let's just say he has a mixed record when it comes to bringing them to fruition.  As I said we'll see but my advice is don't hold your breath.   

[Ron Ron Ron]

22 minutes ago, DY444 said:

 

..... Elon Musk says a lot of things and let's just say he has a mixed record when it comes to bringing them to fruition.  

 

That is true, but this guy has single handedly turned the entire global motor vehicle industry on its head and got them chasing his coat tails, is part way through the process of putting in excess of 40,000 satellites into earth orbit, as part of the Starlink project (aimed to create a global internet network that could potentially have the capacity to replace the entire WWW) and is running a successful space program, with the ultimate aim of taking man to Mars and to colonise it.

I think he needs to be listened to, whatever you think of him.

 

 

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Edited May 16, 2021 by Ron Ron Ron

[woodenhead]

16 minutes ago, Ron Ron Ron said:

Making good progress, amazing what they can get pictures of now too

[Ron Ron Ron]

 

[GoingUnderground]

1 hour ago, Edwin_m said:

This does of course increase congestion and emissions, as all the self-driving cars return to their parking spaces after dropping people off in the morning and vice versa in the afternoon.  

You've missed the point about car parking. Why should the self-driving car go all the way back to it's normal overnight parking space? They wouldn't. They'd be programmed to park close to the drop-off point, or possibly the pick-up point if that was to be different to the drop off point.

 

The point that I was making is that city car parks do not need to be close to the most popular destinations in towns and cities, but could be on the outskirts or on nearby less busy areas, and that they may need a lot less space than at present, and they certainly won't need ventilation to remove nitrogen oxides or carbon dioxide or monoxide because there won't be any if the cars are all pure electric.  So they could be underground megaparks many levels deeper than at present once the ventilation and access issues are removed. Empty cars driving themselves to and from car parks could generate more congestion, but it might mean less as there would be no need for on-street parking in business, commercial and shopping areas, increasing available road space at stroke. There would be minimal emissions if they're fully electric. 

[Ron Ron Ron]

The Self-driving topic has moved elsewhere....

 

.

[woodenhead]

14 minutes ago, Ron Ron Ron said:

 

That is true, but this guy has single handedly turned the entire global motor vehicle industry on its head, is part way through the process of putting in excess of 40,000 satellites into earth orbit, as part of the Starlink project (aimed to create a global internet network that could potentially have the capacity to replace the entire WWW) and is running a successful space program, with the ultimate aim of taking man to Mars and to colonise it.

I think he needs to be listened to, whatever you think of him.

And don't forget Paypal

 

He can be a doofus at times, but he has vision.

[Ron Ron Ron]

 

[GoingUnderground]

But back on HS2, the further that the politicos kick the start of the extensions beyond Birmingham into the future, the bigger the impact of electric cars will be and the increased likelihood of the self-driving revolution kicking in fully, possibly even before even the north of Birmingham parts get built.

 

I love the idea of HS2, and I'm amazed that it has got as far as it has. But I can't see it ever getting north of Birmingham, at least not in my lifetime. And if that is the case then it will have been a waste of cash as a high speed line because London to Birmingham is really just too short a distance to maximise the benefit. London-Leeds or London-Manchester or, better still London-Glasgow or London-Edinburgh are the sorts of distances where it starts to show the benefit of the intended high speed. As the capacity issue remains real, then it would be better to reduce the cost and build it with a lower maximum design speed, say 150mph or 250kph.  

[Northmoor]

4 hours ago, martin_wynne said:

How much brake dust does an HS2 train discharge into the environment? Not all braking can be regenerative. How is the quantity affected by line speed?

 

How much brake dust and rubber dust is discharged by the equivalent in electric road vehicles?

 

Martin.

Put it this way - about 20 years ago I worked in a company where a team of people who were investigating recovery of heavy and rare earth metals from the dust at the side of the road, as the percentages were approaching that of the ores where they were normally mined.  However, the side of UK roads is a lot less technologically or politically challenging than a lot of places where those mines are currently.

[woodenhead]

4 minutes ago, GoingUnderground said:

But back on HS2, the further that the politicos kick the start of the extensions beyond Birmingham into the future, the bigger the impact of electric cars will be and the increased likelihood of the self-driving revolution kicking in fully, possibly even before even the north of Birmingham parts get built.

 

I love the idea of HS2, and I'm amazed that it has got as far as it has. But I can't see it ever getting north of Birmingham, at least not in my lifetime. And if that is the case then it will have been a waste of cash as a high speed line because London to Birmingham is really just too short a distance to maximise the benefit. London-Leeds or London-Manchester or, better still London-Glasgow or London-Edinburgh are the sorts of distances where it starts to show the benefit of the intended high speed. As the capacity issue remains real, then it would be better to reduce the cost and build it with a lower maximum design speed, say 150mph or 250kph.  

But there are assumptions then to be made about the prices of self driving cars, range of said vehicles and capacity of the roads to deal with them.

 

Regardless of whether a car drives itself or not and whether it has an ICE or electric drive, HS2 will offer a means of travel that will be faster than the car over long distances and available to the masses and not those who can afford vehicles (just like how not everyone can now afford a mortgage).