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I reckon it will reach Crewe and go north from there on normal lines, the line to Manchester may be completed but via Crewe.  The leg through the East Midlands to Leeds will be sacrificed or use HS3 from Manchester to Leeds as an alternative.

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2 hours ago, John Tomlinson said:

I wonder if anyone can shed light as to the significance of this -

 

https://www.constructionnews.co.uk/hs2/major-projects-body-brands-hs2-phase-2b-unachievable-19-07-2021/

 

John.

 

The House of Commons Transport Select Committee received an update and raised various questions with Mark Thurston (HS2) and Andy Street (W. Midlands Mayor), a couple of weeks ago.

 

There is a great degree of confidence that the western leg will be completed, to both Manchester and the northern link to the WCML.

Without it, the business case for Phase 1 (under construction) and Phase 2A (surveys and enabling work started), falls apart.

 

The eastern leg part of 2B is another matter.

W.Midlands are battling for the eastern leg as part of their larger regional development plan.

 

 

.

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2 hours ago, woodenhead said:

I reckon it will reach Crewe and go north from there on normal lines, the line to Manchester may be completed but via Crewe.  The leg through the East Midlands to Leeds will be sacrificed or use HS3 from Manchester to Leeds as an alternative.

 

1 hour ago, Ron Ron Ron said:

 

The House of Commons Transport Select Committee received an update and raised various questions with Mark Thurston (HS2) and Andy Street (W. Midlands Mayor), a couple of weeks ago.

 

There is a great degree of confidence that the western leg will be completed, to both Manchester and the northern link to the WCML.

Without it, the business case for Phase 1 (under construction) and Phase 2A (surveys and enabling work started), falls apart.

 

The eastern leg part of 2B is another matter.

W.Midlands are battling for the eastern leg as part of their larger regional development plan.

 

 

.

 

 

Thank you both for your answers.

 

I'd always understood that the project had to be completed mainly if not 100% for the business case to work.

 

It will be interesting to see if shorter term financial expediency from the Treasury wins out.

 

John.

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Very detailed article in Modern Railways August issue on Calvert and general area  also piece in press today saying the route to Leeds will   not happen because of cost .At least the Leeds station is being rebuilt and they are getting more trains from KX.

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So East Midlands is stuffed yet again with neither HS2 nor full electrification. Birmingham & Manchester get all they want. Leeds gets…? Just shows the value of elected city-region mayors. 
 

Dava

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11 hours ago, John Tomlinson said:

I wonder if anyone can shed light as to the significance of this -

 

https://www.constructionnews.co.uk/hs2/major-projects-body-brands-hs2-phase-2b-unachievable-19-07-2021/

 

John.

 

One of the drawbacks of projects that take decades is that there is time for games and drama.

 

As such I wouldn't necessarily read too much into it yet.

 

For now the Treasury is winning the game, with Covid creating repercussions and ripples.

 

A year from now, hopefully post Covid and with a major election closer, could yet see more twists and turns as politicians attempt to buy votes and that takes the upper hand over those who don't want to spend money.  If commuters and travellers return to the railway that would put additional pressure on the politicians in the future - and if the railways remain empty then the decision will be the correct one.

 

So, don't panic, but if you live in those areas be prepared to put pressure on those who want your votes...

Edited by mdvle
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9 hours ago, Dava said:

So East Midlands is stuffed yet again with neither HS2 nor full electrification. Birmingham & Manchester get all they want. Leeds gets…? Just shows the value of elected city-region mayors. 
 

Dava

Upside is they dont have to move those 60’s from Toton.

:D

 

 

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11 hours ago, Dava said:

So East Midlands is stuffed yet again with neither HS2 nor full electrification. Birmingham & Manchester get all they want. Leeds gets…? Just shows the value of elected city-region mayors. 
 

Dava


I think MML electrification will happen.  The bi-modes gave them the excuse to cancel it but they also give the opportunity to do the rest a section at a time.  Market Harborough is coming.  It's then only 16 miles to Leicester (and I don't subscribe to the view that the bridge at Leicester is an insurmountable problem - that's an excuse from those looking to justify not doing it).  You can then extend in stages to Trent Jn, Nottingham, Derby and finally Sheffield.  It's not if it's when.

 

I'm not sure about the HS2 eastern section.  It has always struck me as a bit of a compromise compared to the western sections.  The latter serves central Birmingham, central Manchester, the major rail interchange at Crewe, the NEC/Birmingham Airport complex and Manchester Airport.  The Eastern leg doesn't quite do that though in that it by-passes most of the traffic centres of the East Midlands. 

 

Leicester aside (which becomes the Coventry of the East Midlands by missing out altogether), Toton is a classic fudge which ends up serving neither Nottingham or Derby adequately nor is there anything close by in contrast to say Birmingham Interchange.  It will thus suffer from the classic provincial parkway station problem which is that it is fine for those who would otherwise drive to say Derby but inconvenient for those going the other way wanting to be in the City Centre.  It's analogous in my mind to building a big parkway station at say Mill Hill and then wondering why no-one from the provinces wants to go there.  Originally Sheffield was going to be in the same boat but the solution to that involves a detour over the existing line thus eating away at the journey time improvements and, as with anywhere on a loop, making it less attractive for trains to points beyond to stop there. 

 

That leaves Leeds, York and the North East essentially carrying the bulk of the justification for the line.  *If* a 125mph line was built across the Pennines with access to the southbound HS2 somewhere around Manchester, would the Leeds to London journey time via that route be so much more as to justify the HS2 Eastern leg?  I don't know but a line that doesn't serve the centres of Leicester, Nottingham or Derby and requires a trundle through Chesterfield, Dronfield, Dore etc to serve Sheffield isn't ticking the right boxes on the face of it.

Edited by DY444
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This week there was a "market engagement" event for MML electrification, which isn't a go-ahead by any means, but does mean that someone is seriously looking at extending it northwards.  The northern end of this scheme would be needed in any case for the HS2 trains looping off via Sheffield.  

 

London-Manchester-Leeds would probably be slower than London-Leeds via HS2 eastern leg, but not by much. However London-Manchester and London-Leeds trains are both planned to be the maximum length HS2 can operate, and there's no capacity to run any more trains via Manchester, so it probably isn't capacity to run it.  The other problem with the esatern leg is that London-York is less than 30min quicker via HS2 than via ECML, and the latter will probably improve a bit with new timetables.  So the journey time case for the HS2 eastern leg is worse than for the west, because ECML is quite fast anyway and more direct.  The eastern leg is however very beneficial for Birmingham-Leeds journey times - but perhaps those could run via Manchester if NPR is built instead of the eastern leg.  

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13 hours ago, Dava said:

So East Midlands is stuffed yet again with neither HS2 nor full electrification.
 

 

 

The best bet for the East Midlands is to decouple itself from Leeds and destinations northwards.

 

There is a compelling case to bring HS2 as far as Derby / Nottingham (and Sheffield via the MML) - the flying junction near Birmingham is being built under phase 1, the length of new railway needed would be relatively short, etc...

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Winding the clock back a bit for a little perspective.

Going back to the original concept and justification for HS2, the stations for the East Midlands (Toton) and Sheffield were deliberately not part of the plan at all.

The eastern leg was originally added to solely provide a significant capacity enhancement to the London - Leeds route.  

Nothing more.

It was not intended that HS2 should serve other destinations on that branch, nor provide further access onto the "classic" network beyond Leeds, to York or the NE (although the latter option was considered).

The secondary benefit of including an eastern branch, was the provision of a HS link between Birmingham and Leeds.

 

Once the HS2 project was formally launched and put into motion, the scope was widened (some may regard it as mission creep?) to include the East Midlands, Sheffield and a link onto the classic network, beyond Leeds.

That extra provision is a bonus for those areas now included in the plan. Something they weren't going to get anyway, had the original concept been kept to.

 

Journey times to/from London shouldn't really be an issue here, as the eastern leg is primarily a capacity enhancement.

The real casualty if the eastern leg is not built, is the loss of the Birmingham - East Midlands -Sheffield - Leeds high speed rail link.

 

 

.

Edited by Ron Ron Ron
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Reading the article the in latest Modern Railways on the report on the future of GB rail you really do wonder just where some or most of the ideas come from. One comment says that there to many different units on the rails quoting bus operators as a guide but as is said by MR the life of a rail unit is far longer than buses etc .Comments by Shapps are purely for political reasons and evidently the treasury has not even commented on the report.HS2 is a project that will either succeed or become a white elephant it could go either way due to government interference, treasury duplicity, plus will traffic levels rise back to pre covid.Its all in the future and who knows what will happen, the doctors are saying covid will always be here so will people travel again. The future of high speed is going to be something that will not be decided for at least thirty years and many of the people involved now will not have any input then.Leeds has many fast services already  and just how far north HS2 will go Scotland do not want to pay for a line and the higher speeds will be no benefit once the dedicated line is left so I hope that the future is one of progress and that HS2 will work stimulating growth. Back to what is being carried out locally (Aylesbury)    prep work for rail bridge over A413 outside Wendover ,pep for moving rail line at Marsh Crossing ,prep for cement making unit beside Wendover bypass and ground work increasing around Aylesbury towards Waddesdon.  Thats it for the moment  lets hope it remains on time as I would not want to working up to my knees in the mud post heavy rain now falling  !!

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Article in the Time this morning (and I'm pretty sure elsewhere) about using giant 3D printers to form pre-cast concrete sections on site, to avoid having to transport them in from elsewhere. Reported it will keep costs down.

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36 minutes ago, eastglosmog said:

Article in the Time this morning (and I'm pretty sure elsewhere) about using giant 3D printers to form pre-cast concrete sections on site, to avoid having to transport them in from elsewhere. Reported it will keep costs down.

Wrong month, surely? April was 5 months ago!

 

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I don't post often on these types of threads as i freely admit to having neither the knowledge nor the background to question those in the know.

 

However...as discussion of the eastern leg progresses, I would like to know why the same reasons for building it as are applied to the Birmingham leg, are not being applied?

 

I was under the impression that the main driving force is capacity, not decreasing journey times.

 

Yet journey times seem the main driver for the eastern leg?

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Or not! The way i see it it, the first phase, the west side, removes two Manchester's an hour, two west mids, all Liverpools, Glasgows, Prestons etc from the west coast main line southern end. Leaving a rump of fast'ish hourly services to serve the likes of Chester, Rugby, Coventry and Milton Keynes. All these diverted trains also have large time improvements, except the Scots ones possibly as they lose tilt!

 

The eastern side on the other hand costs a lot for less time saving, as the east coast route is already pretty fast. You may gain ECML capacity by sending everything from north of Leeds down it, but would an hourly York/Leeds-KX stopper be enough. And the midland main line will still need the same service south of Derby/Notts due to the population centers on route.

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4 hours ago, JeffP said:

I don't post often on these types of threads as i freely admit to having neither the knowledge nor the background to question those in the know.

 

However...as discussion of the eastern leg progresses, I would like to know why the same reasons for building it as are applied to the Birmingham leg, are not being applied?

 

I was under the impression that the main driving force is capacity, not decreasing journey times.

 

Yet journey times seem the main driver for the eastern leg?

 

If the journey time is no quicker, there's no real reason for people to use it, so it won't relieve capacity.  HS2 doesn't serve Leicester, journey times to central Derby and Nottingham will be little faster than today due to the change at Toton, Sheffield requires a lengthy detour off the high speed route, so these major centres don't benefit as much as otherwise similar places further west.  

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