HS2

[billbedford]

16 minutes ago, John Tomlinson said:

I too saw this rather amazing set of forecasts for global population.

 

Both Japan and Italy were forecast to have around 50% falls from their present level to 2100, with China not far behind, which does rather make you wonder why the UK holds fairly constant. I suspect as you say it is something to do with predictions on net inward immigration, which may well prove completely wrong over such a long period. Worth mentioning that the major growth area is Africa, tripling from now to around 3 billion in 2100 - without this the total global number would be contracting.

 

 

The fertility rate, ie the average number of children each woman produces, in Japan, Italy and Germany is around 1.4. In the UK it's around 1.8, this more or less explains the differences in projected populations. 

 

If African countries follow those in Asia then their fertility rate will fall as they industrialise. The two drivers of population decline are an increase in affluence and education, and thus high value work, for women.  

[corneliuslundie]

In the UK we have had at least two occasions when the population dropped drastically, ie something like 30% - the Black Death and Bubonic Plague. In each case it took time but the population bounced back, and not all because of immigration though that helped. I suspect that there would be an increase in birth rates if living conditions and health provision deteriorated a great deal.

But I can safely make this suggestion knowing I shall not be around when I am proved wrong.

Of course in the end all Brits are immigrants anyway, it is just that some arrived many centuries years ago. So perhaps there will be another wave to refill for the empty parts of the country.

Even London has had its ups and down since the Romans ;left, but it has always bounced back bigger and "better".

But even if the population figures for the UK are optimistic it will be some time before there is a drop in population past current levels, and hopefully HS2 and the other planned projects will be operational a long time before that happens.

Jonathan

[Zomboid]

22 minutes ago, corneliuslundie said:

In the UK we have had at least two occasions when the population dropped drastically, ie something like 30% - the Black Death and Bubonic Plague

Aren't they the same thing?

[Ron Ron Ron]

45 minutes ago, corneliuslundie said:

In the UK we have had at least two occasions when the population dropped drastically, ie something like 30% - the Black Death and Bubonic Plague......

 

Aye ! The good old days.

 

Speaking personally, I think a reduction in the size of the UK population would probably be a good thing.

However, even if these latest predications turn out to be accurate, there appears to be little chance of the population size reducing below its current levels, for many decades into the future; barring some sort of catastrophe.

 

 

.

[DK123GWR]

39 minutes ago, Zomboid said:

Aren't they the same thing?

I assume that 'bubonic plague' refers to the Great Plague of 1665, while the Black Death was an earlier outbreak of the same disease in 1348.

[Zomboid]

So it's the same thing and a different thing at the same time. I didn't know there has been two instances of it in the UK - at school when we learnt these things we used "Black Death" and "Bubonic Plague" synonymously.

[melmerby]

14 minutes ago, Zomboid said:

So it's the same thing and a different thing at the same time. I didn't know there has been two instances of it in the UK - at school when we learnt these things we used "Black Death" and "Bubonic Plague" synonymously.

Also 1430-80

In fact it recurred regularly for centuries and only the severest spikes are generally noted.

Edited July 17, 2020 by melmerby

[Tom D]

It is interesting to note, that just in the last few weeks, cases of Bubonic Plague were reported in China and USA, in the case of the USA it was a squirrel that had the disease. However, it was also reported that since 1900, the US has between 1 and 17 cases  every year, of Bubonic Plague  (in people). 

[bimble]

31 minutes ago, Tom D said:

It is interesting to note, that just in the last few weeks, cases of Bubonic Plague were reported in China and USA, in the case of the USA it was a squirrel that had the disease. However, it was also reported that since 1900, the US has between 1 and 17 cases  every year, of Bubonic Plague  (in people). 

 

That's because the bubonic plague is endemic in prairie dogs (I believe) in the US, and so there is occasional crossover.

[corneliuslundie]

I think they are two names for the same thing but there have been at least two really major epidemics, plus several which mainly affected London.

There is a lot in a library book I have recently been reading: "The making of the British landscape" by Nicholas Crane.

Jonathan

Edited July 17, 2020 by corneliuslundie
So the post made sense

[Trog]

Although there is a suspicion that the Black Death was not Bubonic Plague, as the rate of spread was wrong. The last big outbreak of Bubonic Plague started in China and spread across country at a rate of about ten miles a year. The Black Death however managed to get from the Near East to the north of Norway in about three years. That was despite the Black Death having to use medieval transport while the last Bubonic Plague out break could use early modern transport. There is also apparently little evidence in the fossil record and the way buildings were constructed to suggest the existence of suitable rats as well.

[melmerby]

1 hour ago, bimble said:

 

That's because the bubonic plague is endemic in prairie dogs (I believe) in the US, and so there is occasional crossover.

Also Marmots in Asia, fortunately modern treatments are pretty effective in fighting the disease.

[melmerby]

32 minutes ago, Trog said:

Although there is a suspicion that the Black Death was not Bubonic Plague, as the rate of spread was wrong. The last big outbreak of Bubonic Plague started in China and spread across country at a rate of about ten miles a year. The Black Death however managed to get from the Near East to the north of Norway in about three years. That was despite the Black Death having to use medieval transport while the last Bubonic Plague out break could use early modern transport. There is also apparently little evidence in the fossil record and the way buildings were constructed to suggest the existence of suitable rats as well.

The same bacterium (Yersinia Pestis) was responsible for both as has been determined by DNA analysis.

[Trog]

https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg17223184-000-did-bubonic-plague-really-cause-the-black-death/

 

Article on the behaviour of the Black Death, one of the points is that there is a lack of DNA from Bubonic Plague where remains from plague pits have been tested.

[Mike Storey]

Hopefully, we can get back to somewhere near the subject of the thread? Please!!

[lmsforever]

The design of the proposed bridge outside of Wendover looks to be a good one and will eventually blend into the scenery.Also did not realise that the line would be veering away from the bypass ,lot of ground clearence on the left of Oxford Rd Aylesbury you can see the route clearly but no trees taken down beside the road.No disruption yet by works so no complaints in the paper!

[melmerby]

19 hours ago, Trog said:

https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg17223184-000-did-bubonic-plague-really-cause-the-black-death/

 

Article on the behaviour of the Black Death, one of the points is that there is a lack of DNA from Bubonic Plague where remains from plague pits have been tested.

Quote

"Definitive confirmation of the role of Y. pestis arrived in 2010 with a publication in PLOS Pathogens by Haensch et al.[8][j] They assessed the presence of DNA/RNA with polymerase chain reaction (PCR) techniques for Y. pestis from the tooth sockets in human skeletons from mass graves in northern, central and southern Europe that were associated archaeologically with the Black Death and subsequent resurgences. The authors concluded that this new research, together with prior analyses from the south of France and Germany, "ends the debate about the cause of the Black Death, and unambiguously demonstrates that Y. pestis was the causative agent of the epidemic plague that devastated Europe during the Middle Ages".[8] In 2011, these results were further confirmed with genetic evidence derived from Black Death victims in the East Smithfield burial site in England. Schuenemann et al. concluded in 2011 "that the Black Death in medieval Europe was caused by a variant of Y. pestis that may no longer exist."

 

Back to HS2, I hope

Edited July 18, 2020 by melmerby

[Arun Sharma]

1 hour ago, melmerby said:

Quote

"Definitive confirmation of the role of Y. pestis arrived in 2010 with a publication in PLOS Pathogens by Haensch et al.[8][j] They assessed the presence of DNA/RNA with polymerase chain reaction (PCR) techniques for Y. pestis from the tooth sockets in human skeletons from mass graves in northern, central and southern Europe that were associated archaeologically with the Black Death and subsequent resurgences. The authors concluded that this new research, together with prior analyses from the south of France and Germany, "ends the debate about the cause of the Black Death, and unambiguously demonstrates that Y. pestis was the causative agent of the epidemic plague that devastated Europe during the Middle Ages".[8] In 2011, these results were further confirmed with genetic evidence derived from Black Death victims in the East Smithfield burial site in England. Schuenemann et al. concluded in 2011 "that the Black Death in medieval Europe was caused by a variant of Y. pestis that may no longer exist."

 

Back to HS2, I hope

As those of us who were 'involved' in the first [and subsequent] Gulf Wars know, there are readily available preventive inoculations against Y.pestis these days so less of a problem assuming that you are otherwise healthy. 

Edited July 18, 2020 by Arun Sharma

[melmerby]

Although not HS2 but other railway related, DNA from bodies excavated from sites during Crossrail construction in 2016 found DNA of bubonic plague in victims of the "black death".

I don't know where that New Scientist article is from but it is out of date.

[melmerby]

5 minutes ago, Arun Sharma said:

As those of us who were 'involved' in the first [and subsequent] Gulf Wars know, there are readily available preventive inoculations against Y.pestis these days so less of a problem assuming that you are otherwise healthy. 

It's like many killers of the past.

Modern treatments have made them far less deadly.

Much better general health of populations also plays a big part.

Many victims of the black death were also suffering from the debilitating effects of other endemic infections, such as syphilis which had already compromised their immune systems.

[Arun Sharma]

7 hours ago, melmerby said:

Many victims of the black death were also suffering from the debilitating effects of other endemic infections, such as syphilis which had already compromised their immune systems.

Interesting - The evidence for Syphilis existing in Europe prior to 1492 is scant. The first recognised cases of syphilis are believed by most authorities to have been brought back to Genoa by Columbus and his crewmen on return from the New World. There is interesting circumstantial evidence that some American Indian tribes were pretty much immune to Treponema pallidum infections and may well have carried the bacterium. There again, the T. pallidum that was endemic in North and Central America may well have been one of the other widespread sub-species that caused [and still do cause] the diseases 'Yaws', 'Pinta' and 'Bejel'. This would make a sort of sense as these aren't lethal whereas Syphilis was lethal [less so now if treated] from the outset as it couldn't be treated. Thus one hypothesis is that Syphilis was the infection resulting from a mutation of one of the N. American native forms of T.pallidum.

 

All of which suggests that it is probably inaccurate to suggest that syphilis contributed to death from Y.pestis infection earlier than 1492-4.

Edited July 18, 2020 by Arun Sharma

[corneliuslundie]

My apologies for starting this "slight" diversion from the topic of the thread. I assume that there is nothing new to say about HS2.

Jonathan

[Edwin_m]

It's more interesting than having yet another person complaining about the cost to save 10min to Birmingham or why they didn't re-open the Great Central instead!  

[jamie92208]

I assume that the Chiltern South Portal is inaccessible for amateur photographers.  I fear that most other sites will be difficult to photograph due to the extensive environmental boundaries around the new line.  However I do hope that we will be be able to see some views.

 

Jamie

[melmerby]

1 hour ago, jamie92208 said:

I assume that the Chiltern South Portal is inaccessible for amateur photographers.  I fear that most other sites will be difficult to photograph due to the extensive environmental boundaries around the new line.  However I do hope that we will be be able to see some views.

 

Jamie

Maybe somebody might be able to get a drone up?

As long as they don't overfly the site boundary they might be OK.