Panic buying

[kevinlms]

On 03/06/2020 at 16:53, monkeysarefun said:

yay us! 

 

 And yay for university researchers, what can they not research!

 

(From Sydney Morning Herald):

 

'Panic index' shows Australians were the world's best panic buyers

 

Australia outperformed most of the world dealing with the coronavirus pandemic - and the nation's consumers out-shopped their international counterparts when it came to panic buying.

New research by two University of New South Wales academics into coronavirus-related panic shopping shows that Australian consumers were the quickest in the world to raid supermarket aisles in search of toilet paper and canned soup.

 

Mike Keane and Tim Neal from the university's school of business used Google search data from 54 countries, covering January to late April, to pinpoint the scope and intensity of panic buying in response to the coronavirus outbreak.

Consumers in almost every nation stockpiled goods as governments shut down key parts of their economies. These included internal and external travel bans such as Australia's decision to close the borders to non-nationals travelling from China on February 1.

 

Panic buying escalated through March in Australia. Sales of canned and dry soup surged by 180 per cent, purchases of toilet and tissue paper doubled while there were also short-term shortages of flour, rice and pasta.

While panic buying was common, Australian shoppers took it to an extreme level. In a "panic index" created by Professor Keane and Mr Neal, Australia eclipsed shoppers from around the world.

 

"The experience of Australia is notable for the incredible speed and scale with which panic took hold in early March," they found.

"Unlike in other countries, the escalation in panic does not appear to correspond with any significant increase in domestic COVID-19 cases."

So extreme was domestic panic buying, the researchers had to modify the graphs in their paper to show the extent of Australians' efforts to find sought-after goods.

 

Neal and Prof Mike Keane from the UNSW business school developed an index to measure panic buying across 54 countries during the pandemic. The researchers analysed Google search data for words like “toilet paper”, “panic buying”, “hoarding”, “supermarket”, “recession” and “unemployment” in various languages.

 

Their report found that Australia was “notable for the incredible speed and scale with which panic took hold in early March,” backed up by sales data that shows supermarket spending rose 24.1% that month.

Australia peaked at a panic level of 0.79 on the research’s index, while the UK peaked at approximately 0.175, Italy at 0.15, and France at 0.09.

“When you look at March and April, Australia was far and away the most panicked country,” Neal said. “We haven’t calculated who came second, who came third – it wasn’t a close contest. Japan had a big spike but it very quickly disappeared.

 

Professor Keane and Mr Neal said it was likely panic buying was associated with border bans, but Australia was an international outlier. They found Australians may have reacted to restrictions in other countries.

Both warned there were economic and medical repercussions from panic buying.

"Shortages created by panic buying also force consumers to devote extra time and effort to shopping, diverting time away from welfare-improving activities like work, leisure, and sleep, as well as generating psychological costs by inducing anxiety and stress," they found.

Australian National University marketing lecturer Andrew Hughes said it appeared Australians had been overwhelmed with FOMO, the fear-of-missing-out.

"Once one person misses out on something, the FOMO principle kicks in. In this day and age, once people think they are going to miss out on something, it triggers a fear that they'll miss out on it," he said.

"It could be an iPhone or it could be toilet paper."

While panic buying has subsided, some spending habits have changed since the coronavirus outbreak.

NAB's measure of online shopping, released on Tuesday, showed cyber-sales grew 16.2 per cent in April, the single largest monthly increase on record. Annually, online sales were up a record 58.5 per cent.

 

An interesting article on how Australian supermarket chains colluded on their supply chains, on everything except prices, with government approval. Even to the extent of diverting their own stock to competitors.

Well done to all parties.

 

https://www.theage.com.au/business/companies/inside-story-how-woolworths-and-coles-joined-forces-to-avert-covid-19-disaster-20200611-p551lk.html

 

Reading through the problems that the UK experienced (lots of trouble with deliveries, for instance), it looks like there is a lesson to be learnt from the colonies!

[melmerby]

IMHO The Aussies were streets ahead in bog roll snaffling because off the perceived shortage caused by a fire (?) at one of their major suppliers just before Covid-19 struck.

( I wonder whether that guy who stockpiled hundreds of toilet rolls and tried to return them when he couldn't sell them on e-bay ever got rid of his ill gotten gains?)

 

Social media has a part to play in creating panic buying as, not being on Twitter or Facebook, I didn't even know it was happening until on our weekly shop we suddenly found empty shelves where the previous week they had been full.

It did prompt us to use up some very out of date pasta and rice that had been sitting in the back of the cupboard since Methusala was a lad!

[Gwiwer]

9 minutes ago, melmerby said:

IMHO The Aussies were streets ahead in bog roll snaffling because off the perceived shortage caused by a fire (?) at one of their major suppliers just before Covid-19 struck.

( I wonder whether that guy who stockpiled hundreds of toilet rolls and tried to return them when he couldn't sell them on e-bay ever got rid of his ill gotten gains?)

 

Social media has a part to play in creating panic buying as, not being on Twitter or Facebook, I didn't even know it was happening until on our weekly shop we suddenly found empty shelves where the previous week they had been full.

It did prompt us to use up some very out of date pasta and rice that had been sitting in the back of the cupboard since Methusala was a lad!

The first image of panic buying seen by many people has been credited to a Facebook post originating in Australia.  The rest is history.  

 

This whole scenario has been driven by huge numbers of fake social media postings, false information and the generation of unnecessary stress, suffering, inconvenience and drama.  At the same time those same social media platforms have served to keep us connected with those we hold dear at a time when no other means was available to do so.  Double-edged sword.  

[kevinlms]

20 minutes ago, melmerby said:

IMHO The Aussies were streets ahead in bog roll snaffling because off the perceived shortage caused by a fire (?) at one of their major suppliers just before Covid-19 struck.

( I wonder whether that guy who stockpiled hundreds of toilet rolls and tried to return them when he couldn't sell them on e-bay ever got rid of his ill gotten gains?)

 

Social media has a part to play in creating panic buying as, not being on Twitter or Facebook, I didn't even know it was happening until on our weekly shop we suddenly found empty shelves where the previous week they had been full.

It did prompt us to use up some very out of date pasta and rice that had been sitting in the back of the cupboard since Methusala was a lad!

Judging by your almost daily posts about how hard it was to get a home delivery slot, so many out of stock items, totally unsuitable substitutions if any, etc, etc, kind of made me glad, that I was going to Australian supermarkets and not a British one.

 

Just saying! 

 

As for old stock in the back of the pantry, that's a self inflicted problem. Always use up the oldest stuff first, or toss it!

[rockershovel]

Received a message from Ocado, to the effect that they are now in a position to allow their regular subscribers a delivery every three days, rather than one a week. I also saw a piece in the news to the effect that they had raised financial backing to build more automated-picking warehouses. 

 

They clearly feel that buy on-Line, deliver to the door is the way ahead. 

[kevinlms]

30 minutes ago, melmerby said:

IMHO The Aussies were streets ahead in bog roll snaffling because off the perceived shortage caused by a fire (?) at one of their major suppliers just before Covid-19 struck.

 

News to me about a toilet paper factory fire in Australia (there was one in the US, I believe).

 

There was a truckload that caught fire in Brisbane, Queensland which may have contributed a little to a panic. Never got to less than 2 spare rolls here and I didn't at any stage have more than 8 in the house.

[Gwiwer]

It is still hard to get a new delivery slot in much of the UK unless you have either loyalty access or are accepted as a vulnerable customer.  There simply isn't the capacity to service all requests.  

 

Those supermarkets who pick from the shelves for home delivery seem to be still experiencing random stock shortages though nowhere near the level that existed briefly.  Ocado - who don't pick from shelves but use their own warehouses - are rather better at fulfilling the complete order.  As examples we have had only a couple of subs across the last several Ocado orders and today's is complete without a single substitution.  

 

It's odd what shows up as out of stock.  This week it seems to be decaf coffee and dried herbs.  Last week it was bacon and white wine.  All a bit random.  Ocado are also beginning to wind down their stock of Waitrose brands ahead of their change of contract; they switch to M&S later in the year though non-Waitrose and own-label items are not affected.  

[kevinlms]

3 minutes ago, rockershovel said:

Received a message from Ocado, to the effect that they are now in a position to allow their regular subscribers a delivery every three days, rather than one a week. I also saw a piece in the news to the effect that they had raised financial backing to build more automated-picking warehouses. 

 

They clearly feel that buy on-Line, deliver to the door is the way ahead. 

Judging by the comments elsewhere in this thread, with too many OOS items and completely unsuitable substitutions (meat products for vegetarians!), I wouldn't consider home delivery as something I'd want to do. If I go to the supermarket, I pick the substitutes. It's a simple as that.

[kevinlms]

3 minutes ago, Gwiwer said:

It is still hard to get a new delivery slot in much of the UK unless you have either loyalty access or are accepted as a vulnerable customer.  There simply isn't the capacity to service all requests.  

 

Those supermarkets who pick from the shelves for home delivery seem to be still experiencing random stock shortages though nowhere near the level that existed briefly.  Ocado - who don't pick from shelves but use their own warehouses - are rather better at fulfilling the complete order.  As examples we have had only a couple of subs across the last several Ocado orders and today's is complete without a single substitution.  

 

It's odd what shows up as out of stock.  This week it seems to be decaf coffee and dried herbs.  Last week it was bacon and white wine.  All a bit random.  Ocado are also beginning to wind down their stock of Waitrose brands ahead of their change of contract; they switch to M&S later in the year though non-Waitrose and own-label items are not affected.  

Sounds like you should consider coming back to Melbourne! Most of the shelves have something on them.

[Gwiwer]

Just now, kevinlms said:

If I go to the supermarket, I pick the substitutes. It's a simple as that.

Indeed.  At that level I agree and I prefer to pick my own fresh items at any time.  Tinned, boxed and jar items are pretty much the same whether you pick your own or have them delivered.

 

But (at least in the London area - other regions may differ) attempting a week's shopping in a supermarket is no an option for everyone now.  Buses are limited to a maximum of 6 - 10 passengers leaving many behind at times, senior citizen free travel has been suspended during the morning "peak" meaning anyone travelling to the "silver" hour at the local shops now has to pay, there are queues of varying lengths but usually in the present weather out in the rain and in my experience with frustrations boiling over into arguments and - on one occasion - a brawl.  And there are one-way systems and arguments over access to shelves when inside. In short what was a chore and never a pleasant experience has become utterly tiresome and given an option to have a delivery instead then deliveries are the way to avoid all of that.  

[spikey]

35 minutes ago, rockershovel said:

... they are now in a position to allow their regular subscribers a delivery every three days, rather than one a week.

 

Who on earth might "need" a delivery every three days?

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

16 minutes ago, Gwiwer said:

...In short what was a chore and never a pleasant experience has become utterly tiresome and given an option to have a delivery instead then deliveries are the way to avoid all of that.  

Interesting. 19 miles North of Trafalgar Square, now that the customer base is largely trained the 'chore' has become a superior experience. Last three weekly visits  - and that's all the grocery shopping I do -  I have been able to blitz round more swiftly because there are far fewer people inside, and the 'metering' queue outside for a 'sanitised' trolley has been very short indeed; about half a dozen folk at a slow walk, no other delay.

 

The direction to a vacant check out from a single queue is also so much better that I have requested this be made permanent. No more delays behind Mrs Dimwit who has discovered halfway through the process that she forgot several items.

 

The only problem that remains to be fixed is those using the scanners, 'unscanning' what's already in their trolley. This activity causes such mental derangement that the trolley and pusher unit end up sideways across the aisle, and none shall pass. My suggestion that the second such cancellation attempt should lock the system and tell the customer to use the till, probably not going to be acceptable.

 

2 minutes ago, spikey said:

Who on earth might "need" a delivery every three days?

Two large extended families I know of for a start. Some (all?) delivery systems set limits on how many discrete items you can order, and with over a dozen people to feed a single delivery per week is insufficient. (This a side effect of the policy to encourage multi-generational use of dwellings, with associated relaxation of planning restrictions to enable sufficient space to be provided.)

[J. S. Bach]

1 hour ago, kevinlms said:

As for old stock in the back of the pantry, that's a self inflicted problem. Always use up the oldest stuff first, or toss it!

FIFO

[rockershovel]

12 minutes ago, spikey said:

 

Who on earth might "need" a delivery every three days?

 

... large families? One of my nieces has seven children, her “weekly shop” looks like a UN relief operation. 

 

Come to that, given the size of a lot of modern housing, storing a week’s supplies at once isn’t always easy. No 1 Son went to Tesco twice a week before lockdown, because it wasn’t far and it was easier to keep house that way. No 2 Son lives on his own in a small flat and shops two or three times a week. 

 

My late mother used to have a weekly delivery of heavy, awkward items like potatoes, apples and tinned goods, and shop for meat and soft fruit every two or three days 

 

Somebody posted about this earlier. 

[melmerby]

1 hour ago, kevinlms said:

News to me about a toilet paper factory fire in Australia (there was one in the US, I believe).

 

There was a truckload that caught fire in Brisbane, Queensland which may have contributed a little to a panic.

There you go.

Had a look on the web found that it was indeed a truck fire, but it seems it got exaggerated in such a way such that a shortage was claimed and hey ho, Panic buying.

 

[melmerby]

1 hour ago, kevinlms said:

Judging by your almost daily posts about how hard it was to get a home delivery slot, so many out of stock items, totally unsuitable substitutions if any, etc, etc, kind of made me glad, that I was going to Australian supermarkets and not a British one.

 

Just saying! 

 

As for old stock in the back of the pantry, that's a self inflicted problem. Always use up the oldest stuff first, or toss it!

After 6 (or 7?) deliveries now, things are settling down, more things ordered stay in stock for delivery, still some iffy subs.

e.g. hand wash dispensers, I haven't yet managed to get one, This week I ordered the cheapest non Asda brand one as a recommended substitute for an Asda own brand that was OOS, on delivery got substituted with two bars of Dove beauty soap! Not quite the the thing for washing your hands after gardening.

 

I have managed to get 4 bottles of wine , on all the previous orders only 1 of 4 various ordered (different each time) ever arrived.

[melmerby]

1 hour ago, spikey said:

 

Who on earth might "need" a delivery every three days?

With some items still restricted in quantity, having a more frequent order would help keep you topped up

I opted for a fortnightly delivery to ensure we (there's just two of us) reached the minimum spend but with some of the limits we couldn't get enough of certain products to last two weeks.

Fortunately most limits are now off but tinned soup is still on a max of three and a missed delivery like the last two when items have gone OOS means we run out.

I wonder why there is still a shortage of tinned soup? Other tinned products seem to be regularly available (but generally at a max buy of 3) but soups still have several OOS at any time.

Pasta and rice seem plentiful now as do most breakfast cereals but Muesli and Granola is still like hen's teeth.

Milk gets substituted regularly but it always the same type and total quantity ordered, just in different bottle sizes.

 

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

13 minutes ago, melmerby said:

...I wonder why there is still a shortage of tinned soup? ...soups still have several OOS at any time.

...Milk gets substituted regularly but it always the same type and total quantity ordered, just in different bottle sizes.

There's always been what is probably a literal ton or two of it on the shelves at 'our' Tesco - I have to walk past it to access other items - but since not buying the stuff I haven't actually looked to see what the choice is like. Is it a case of 'Tomato and' or Minestrone, and that's all the big choice we have got I wonder? (Tinned soup is very seasonal is my recollection, once had a near neighbour who was working his way up the greasy pole at Tesco HQ, often some informative insights.)

 

The standard milk packaging, has been in trouble in recent weeks. Shortage of just the 2 pint size which the 'suit on duty' suspected would be a manufacturing supply failure applying to those specific mouldings, as the filling plant and dispatch process is identical for all the sizes, but he had no specific information so that was his best guess when I asked. Milk aplenty in 1, 4 and 6 pint sizes so not a shortage.

[kevinlms]

1 minute ago, melmerby said:

There you go.

Had a look on the web found that it was indeed a truck fire, but it seems it got exaggerated in such a way such that a shortage was claimed and hey ho, Panic buying.

 

More importantly, it was claimed by an article in the news, that crowds of people were swarming small country town supermarkets, stripping the shelves bare, on organised (mini)bus trips. It was suggested that it was the Asian community to send overseas.

However no evidence was ever produced, by these supermarkets of even car parks with a small number of buses. So fake news.

 

It doesn't matter whether it's true or not, if you see every trolley with even a couple of packs of toilet paper, what are you going to do? - I picked up one.

 

Things like a proper rationing system (such as during WW2), take a little bit of time to set up properly. Indeed the UK rationing of food items didn't start until January 1940.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rationing_in_the_United_Kingdom#Second_World_War_1939-1945

[boxbrownie]

4 hours ago, kevinlms said:

Judging by the comments elsewhere in this thread, with too many OOS items and completely unsuitable substitutions (meat products for vegetarians!), I wouldn't consider home delivery as something I'd want to do. If I go to the supermarket, I pick the substitutes. It's a simple as that.

Before the Covid crisis we had regular deliveries from Waitrose and almost never had a sub or OOS item, it is only the present situation which has caused these issues.

[cctransuk]

3 minutes ago, boxbrownie said:

Before the Covid crisis we had regular deliveries from Waitrose and almost never had a sub or OOS item, it is only the present situation which has caused these issues.

 

Our last weekly Asda delivery, value in excess of £80.00, did not have any substitutes whatsoever.

 

Regards,

John Isherwood.

[boxbrownie]

3 hours ago, 34theletterbetweenB&D said:

I have been able to blitz round more swiftly because there are far fewer people inside

I have no experience as we have been locked down since before the start.....but I thought the whole issue in supermarkets was people had to keep the two meters between and while walking the aisles you had to wait until the shopper in front had moved on, we’re you allowed to “overtake” in effect?

 

That was the annoyance our friends complained about.

[melmerby]

2 hours ago, 34theletterbetweenB&D said:

Milk aplenty in 1, 4 and 6 pint sizes so not a shortage.

I ordered 3 x 4pt & 1 x 2pt and got 2 x 6pt & 2 x 1pt

It's 2 weeks supply and the particular sizes are ordered for best fit in the fridge.

Due to the shape of the fridge door storage 3 x 4pt takes up less room then 2 x 6pt.

 

32 minutes ago, cctransuk said:

 

Our last weekly Asda delivery, value in excess of £80.00, did not have any substitutes whatsoever.

 

Regards,

John Isherwood.

There were substitutes for bread, cheese, margarine & soap as well as the milk

- I also  got a pack of three garlic instead of the singleton ordered.

Edited June 12, 2020 by melmerby

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

36 minutes ago, boxbrownie said:

...but I thought the whole issue in supermarkets was people had to keep the two meters between and while walking the aisles you had to wait until the shopper in front had moved on, we’re you allowed to “overtake” in effect?

 

That was the annoyance our friends complained about.

The impact will obviously vary with the floor layout, and the admissions policy. The one I use has wide enough aisles that you are 2m apart walking past someone if positioned either side of the aisle, there's a clearly marked one way system, and the numbers in store are well controlled (to slightly over 100 if I understand correctly) so most aisles are empty, and one can whizz along. It's only the fresh fruit and veg that always has more than a couple per aisle. And even that is no hold up because I have much to buy there from the broad selection so my own progress is relatively slow.

[ejstubbs]

3 hours ago, 34theletterbetweenB&D said:

Milk aplenty in 1, 4 and 6 pint sizes so not a shortage.

 

Meanwhile, in the supermarkets I shop in I haven't been able to buy milk in 1 pint cartons for the past few weeks, while 2 pint cartons have been in good supply.  Which is annoying because SWMBO occasionally asks for full cream milk for a recipe dish and 2 pints is way more than she needs.  Annoying, but not the end of the world.