Panic buying

[jcm@gwr]

20 minutes ago, PaulCheffus said:

Hi

 

I went to a bee farm (don’t know what else to call it) and they said the BBE was a legal requirement but honey doesn’t actually need one.

 

Cheers

 

Paul

 

Agreed, but there has been talk recently about dropping BBE's for certain things.

honey for a start, but also pasta and instant coffee, I can't remember the others.

[Nearholmer]

26 minutes ago, ikcdab said:

Meanwhile, last year in the USA, 35 million people caught flu and 50000 died from it. Nothing different expected this year. So quite why the panic about coronavirus?

 

Because if 35 Million people caught Covid 19, probably more than 350, 000 (1%) would die.

 

(I'm saying "more than 1%", which seems to be the way the UK Chief Medical Officer expresses it. As Dungrange points out, the overall WHO calculation so far is 3.4% of recorded cases, so I guess "our man" is being cautious on the assumption that quite a few cases have gone un-recorded.)

 

 

 

 

Edited March 8, 2020 by Nearholmer

[hayfield]

1 hour ago, Erichill16 said:

I’m also intolerant of gluten, (can’t eat anything made in a factory that handles gluten) but have avoided panick buying. I went to M and S and Morrison yesterday to do our usual shop and only bought one extra long life loaf to usual. I felt a little guilty about this as though the shelves appear full there’s no stock ‘in the back’ what u see is what there is. With your daughters comments I’m upset about the situation. It doesn’t make me wish I’d bought more, just disappointed about people’s  attitude.

I think pasta is popular at the moment because you don’t need a dirty bit freezer to store it.

Any way we’ll see what pans out,

regards Robert

 

 

Robert

 

Most supermarkets now work on a just in time principal, stores own warehouses actually keep very little stock in them (except for peak seasonal items ), simply because it costs too much to keep excess stock in storage. Stock is sent in on a daily basis, usually taking 3 days to react to fluctuations. The items which are in short supply will over the next week or so settle down back to normal or certainly alternatives will be available. I though the punch up over toilet rolls in a Morrisons branch on Facebook quite amusing (think the wife said both parties were thrown out of the shop empty handed)

[KeithMacdonald]

23 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

Yes, I’ve heard plenty of people say that too, but the facts point to a different conclusion: seasonal ‘flu has a mortality rate <0.1%, while the mortality rate for Covid 19 is at least ten times that, so at least 1%.

 

I have no reason to disgree, based on what we know of what's being officially reported.

 

But when I looked back on the mortality rates for Swine flu, Avian flu and SARS, I was reminded that they were higher in Eastern Asia than in Western Europe. For various reasons, partly lifestyle and partly genetic, not much mentioned on Al Beeb.

 

Of course, one has to be careful how one uses words like "it kills Chinese people more than Caucasians" or one might get accused on being an uncaring racist. But the actual mortality rate did decrease as it spread west, and (as others have already wisely noted) 100s if not 1000s of people are dying every week from "ordinary" seasonal flue and related illnesses. Also not much mentioned on Al Beeb.

 

As all our local supermarkets are clean out of hand cleaner (sic), I am resorting to my medical training and visiting the booze section of the supermarkets. To buy bottles of vodka and gin. Purely for medicinal reasons you understand, even if I do use it as a mouthwash (and swallow). One cannot be too careful.

 

Actually, I better go now and stockpile the tonic water and lemons.

[hayfield]

3 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

 

Because if 35 Million people caught Covid 19, probably more than 350, 000 (1%) would die.

 

 

 

Kevin

 

I think the 1% figure is of confirmed cases, as apparently its mostly a mild virus for most may may have had it without either knowing about it or not being confirmed.

[Ron Ron Ron]

2 hours ago, Clive Mortimore said:

I don't know why people are buying so much bog roll, it is tissues you need. Covid-19 give you a runny nose not a runny bum. 

Clive, I think it might be useful to find out what the symptoms of this virus are.

It is not a cold or the flu.

 

Taken from a report by Italian doctors to the NHS and other European healthcare services....

 

Italian hospitals have seen “a very high” number of intensive care patients who were admitted “almost entirely” for severe lung failure caused by the virus and needing ventilators to help them breathe.

Patients with coronavirus experience a severe infection in all of their lungs, requiring major ventilation support.
The virus affects blood pressure, the heart, kidneys and liver with patients needing sustained treatment.

 

Experience from Italy shows that coronavirus patients suffered a lack of oxygen in their blood, meaning they need a ventilator, with large parts of the lung affected by the virus.

The inflammation in their lungs carries on for a long time.
Patients need strong drugs in high doses to maintain their blood pressure.
Kidney failure requiring a kidney machine is common and the patients later in their stay are starting to have blood tests showing liver damage.

 

Looks like neither toilet roll or tissues are going to be much help if you catch it.

 

 

 

.

[Talltim]

I think people are stockpiling not in case they have to self isolate for a fortnight, but in case the toilet roll delivery drivers have to self isolate for a fortnight.

[Nearholmer]

3 minutes ago, hayfield said:

I think the 1% figure is of confirmed cases, as apparently its mostly a mild virus for most may may have had it without either knowing about it or not being confirmed.

 

Nope, for confirmed cases the figure overall is 3.4% to date - see the rider I added to my post.

 

What many people seem to miss is that:

 

- even small percentages of big numbers (like the population figures of countries) equate to large absolute numbers; and,

 

- if numbers of severely ill people swamps the healthcare system, then the mortality rate rises, because some treatable cases can't be given enough treatment to save them.

 

Which is why I expect to see "limit social contact" measures get introduced in the UK soon, next week I guess, to try to limit the number of people who catch it, especially older people. The language of "protecting the most vulnerable" was already being used last week.

[Erichill16]

10 minutes ago, hayfield said:

 

 

Robert

 

Most supermarkets now work on a just in time principal, stores own warehouses actually keep very little stock in them (except for peak seasonal items ), simply because it costs too much to keep excess stock in storage. Stock is sent in on a daily basis, usually taking 3 days to react to fluctuations. The items which are in short supply will over the next week or so settle down back to normal or certainly alternatives will be available. I though the punch up over toilet rolls in a Morrisons branch on Facebook quite amusing (think the wife said both parties were thrown out of the shop empty handed)

Thanks for information. I bet the supermarkets get deliveries of Hovis bread every day but can’t  imagine they get deliveries from specialist GF  producers every day going on the expiry date of some of the products.  

I work in community pharmacy and now don’t have a stock room, there’s no point as we get upto six deliveries each day. For us it’s not the cost of the stock but the space can be better used. 

Ill see if I can see the video.

 Kind Regards Robert

[Nearholmer]

26 minutes ago, KeithMacdonald said:

But when I looked back on the mortality rates for Swine flu, Avian flu and SARS, I was reminded that they were higher in Eastern Asia than in Western Europe. For various reasons, partly lifestyle and partly genetic, not much mentioned on Al Beeb.

 

Not sure that you should be so comforted.

 

The country with the highest mortality rate among confirmed cases is Italy, which is in Western Europe, probably because they have a an aged population.

 

The statistics suggest that one you reach 50, the older you are the more vulnerable you are, and that being a man doesn't help at all, because mortality rate is higher among men.

 

 

Edited March 8, 2020 by Nearholmer

[Erichill16]

28 minutes ago, hayfield said:

 

 

Robert

 

Most supermarkets now work on a just in time principal, stores own warehouses actually keep very little stock in them (except for peak seasonal items ), simply because it costs too much to keep excess stock in storage. Stock is sent in on a daily basis, usually taking 3 days to react to fluctuations. The items which are in short supply will over the next week or so settle down back to normal or certainly alternatives will be available. I though the punch up over toilet rolls in a Morrisons branch on Facebook quite amusing (think the wife said both parties were thrown out of the shop empty handed)

Not sure if it’s the same one you’ve seen but just seen video of an altercation in a Woolworths store in Australia, glad I wasn’t the store manager or store security officer!

all the best,

Robert

 

[Ron Ron Ron]

The mortality rate of confirmed cases in Italy is indeed currently running at around 5%.

Although most of the most severe cases have involved older people, the age range is now expanding to include people in their 40’s and 50’s, with no underlying health conditions.

 

Maybe the bog roll hoarders have heard this and are s******g themselves with worry? 

 

[Andy Hayter]

13 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

 

 

 

Which is why I expect to see "limit social contact" measures get introduced in the UK soon, next week I guess, to try to limit the number of people who catch it, especially older people. The language of "protecting the most vulnerable" was already being used last week.

 

Limiting social contact will not limit the number of people who get it unless miraculously, self isolation takes a hold and the virus just dies out.  I fear we are beyond that.  Limiting social contact then slows down the spread but not necessarily the extent.  

 

So the options are that perhaps 20m in the UK get it in the next three months and of that, based on the current numbers 600k die as a result - possibly more since the treatment for severe cases is a hospital ventilator and 20m of those just don't exist.

 

Alternatively limiting social contact means that quite probably 20m still get it but over many months.  Availability of ventilators is therefore increased and hopefully more of the serious cases survive.

 

Anyone who thinks this is just going to be like a dose of flu, should read this:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/what-its-really-like-to-catch-coronavirus-first-british-victim-25-describes-how-worst-disease-he-ever-had-left-him-sweating-shivering-and-struggling-to-breathe-as-his-eyes-burned-and-bones-ached/ar-BB10M6p4?ocid=spartanntp

[Busmansholiday]

50 minutes ago, russ p said:

The thing is with big roll, in worst case scenario at home you can use your hand and wash it in boiling water and bleach 

Even better, there's plenty of free newspapers that either drop through your letter box or are piled high in supermarket entrances. Do what everybody did decades ago, cut them into small squares and nail them to the back of the toilet door.

[Nearholmer]

6 minutes ago, Andy Hayter said:

Limiting social contact will not limit the number of people who get it unless miraculously, self isolation takes a hold and the virus just dies out.  I fear we are beyond that.  Limiting social contact then slows down the spread but not necessarily the extent.

 

Agree, but what it can do is control the rate of people catching it, and thereby the rate of people getting severely ill, to something that the healthcare system has half a chance of keeping up with, and thereby control the mortality rate to some degree.

 

(Which is what you say ........ so, yes I agree twice)

 

I think China is busily becoming the test case, by "going back to work", which might be expected to start a 'second wave' there.

Edited March 8, 2020 by Nearholmer

[hayfield]

25 minutes ago, Erichill16 said:

Thanks for information. I bet the supermarkets get deliveries of Hovis bread every day but can’t  imagine they get deliveries from specialist GF  producers every day going on the expiry date of some of the products.  

I work in community pharmacy and now don’t have a stock room, there’s no point as we get upto six deliveries each day. For us it’s not the cost of the stock but the space can be better used. 

Ill see if I can see the video.

 Kind Regards Robert

 

Most supermarkets will have gluten free products delivered daily, the free from sections are an ever expanding part of the business, baked products certainly delivered daily, also the better selling dry products

[Talltim]

16 minutes ago, Andy Hayter said:

 

Limiting social contact will not limit the number of people who get it unless miraculously, self isolation takes a hold and the virus just dies out.  I fear we are beyond that.  Limiting social contact then slows down the spread but not necessarily the extent.  

 

So the options are that perhaps 20m in the UK get it in the next three months and of that, based on the current numbers 600k die as a result - possibly more since the treatment for severe cases is a hospital ventilator and 20m of those just don't exist.

 

Alternatively limiting social contact means that quite probably 20m still get it but over many months.  Availability of ventilators is therefore increased and hopefully more of the serious cases survive.

 

Anyone who thinks this is just going to be like a dose of flu, should read this:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/what-its-really-like-to-catch-coronavirus-first-british-victim-25-describes-how-worst-disease-he-ever-had-left-him-sweating-shivering-and-struggling-to-breathe-as-his-eyes-burned-and-bones-ached/ar-BB10M6p4?ocid=spartanntp

Dread to think what disease he’s saving antibiotics for if pneumonia isn't bad enough for them...

[Clive Mortimore]

27 minutes ago, Ron Ron Ron said:

Clive, I think it might be useful to find out what the symptoms of this virus are.

It is not a cold or the flu.

 

Taken from a report by Italian doctors to the NHS and other European healthcare services....

 

Italian hospitals have seen “a very high” number of intensive care patients who were admitted “almost entirely” for severe lung failure caused by the virus and needing ventilators to help them breathe.

Patients with coronavirus experience a severe infection in all of their lungs, requiring major ventilation support.
The virus affects blood pressure, the heart, kidneys and liver with patients needing sustained treatment.

 

Experience from Italy shows that coronavirus patients suffered a lack of oxygen in their blood, meaning they need a ventilator, with large parts of the lung affected by the virus.

The inflammation in their lungs carries on for a long time.
Patients need strong drugs in high doses to maintain their blood pressure.
Kidney failure requiring a kidney machine is common and the patients later in their stay are starting to have blood tests showing liver damage.

 

Looks like neither toilet roll or tissues are going to be much help if you catch it.

 

 

 

.

Nurse's hat on......

 

From our own Governement website

 

Quote

 

The

The symptoms of coronavirus are:

a cough

a high temperature

shortness of breath

But these symptoms do not necessarily mean you have the illness.

The symptoms are similar to other illnesses that are much more common, such as cold and flu.

of coronavirus are:

a cough

a high temperature

shortness of breath

But these symptoms do not necessarily mean you have the illness.

The symptoms are similar to other illnesses that are much more common, such as cold and flu.

 

 

From 20 years of nursing, people with respiratory disease, or a related problem like heart failure can become seriously unwell if they have a cold or the flu and many die because of their inability to fight the infection. The same has been reported world wide regarding people who have died of Convid-19. 

 

If you are an asthma sufferer or have obstructed airways disease or early stages of lung cancer then you are at far greater risk.

 

With all infections, especially those of the respiratory system when the infection reaches the point where there is the oxygen and blood carbon-dioxide exchange then the pathogen can cross into the blood giving the patient sepsis, which quickly causes other organs to be infected and to start to fail.  

 

Even a common cold to someone with obstructed airways disease will reduce the already low blood oxygen levels to a dangerous point  requiring medical intervention so stating the virus lowers blood oxygen levels is correct for those with an underlying respiratory problem. 

 

The majority of people infected, as keeps being stated have cold like symptoms and make a full recovery.

 

 

[Ron Ron Ron]

I fully understand all that Clive, but the reports say that sufferers are not displaying cold like symptoms.

There was a chap on the radio the other day, who has recovered from this infection and he said that it wasn’t like any flu virus he had had.

 

Anyway, if you are involved in helping deal with this, I wish you well and hope you will be safe.

 

.

[Erichill16]

6 minutes ago, hayfield said:

 

Most supermarkets will have gluten free products delivered daily, the free from sections are an ever expanding part of the business, baked products certainly delivered daily, also the better selling dry products

Certainly agree that the product range is improving. I’ve only be on the ‘diet’ for just over a year but people have told me things have improved dramatically. Still missing Eccles cakes, and jam rolly polly, and stew and dumplings and ........

Anyway thanks for easing my fears.

Robert

[jjb1970]

I suspect part of the problem is that many people confuse flu with a dose of the sniffles or the dreaded "man flu". Flu is a rather nasty illness. 

[BobM]

5 hours ago, Gwiwer said:

 

Honey never spoils.  No-one has yet reported stockpiling of honey.  

 

As a (past) beekeeper myself, I have often pondered if honey would be so popular if it was marketed as basically what it is....'Bee Sick' !

 

Bob

Edited March 8, 2020 by BobM

[Andy Hayter]

19 minutes ago, Talltim said:

Dread to think what disease he’s saving antibiotics for if pneumonia isn't bad enough for them...

 

Covid19 is a virus - antibiotics work against bacteria but not viruses.

It is however quite possible that his pneumonia is a bacterial infection as a result of his virally weakened state.  It is also possible that it is due entirely to the virus in which case his call is indeed the correct one.

 

 

[Rivercider]

8 minutes ago, Erichill16 said:

Certainly agree that the product range is improving. I’ve only be on the ‘diet’ for just over a year but people have told me things have improved dramatically. Still missing Eccles cakes, and jam rolly polly, and stew and dumplings and ........

Anyway thanks for easing my fears.

Robert

I would agree, I have been diagnosed coeliac for 14 years, and the products are much better.

From the experience of the store I have worked in for the last 13 years (though it is not my department) , there is a delivery each day, though not necessarily of all gf lines. 

It is the case in our store that pretty much all stock is on the shelves each day, we hold next to nothing in the warehouse,  

 

cheers

[Dungrange]

53 minutes ago, hayfield said:

I think the 1% figure is of confirmed cases, as apparently its mostly a mild virus for most may may have had it without either knowing about it or not being confirmed.

 

No.  The 1% figure is one that has been made up by that well known expert called Donald Trump.  Toilet paper knows more than he does - perhaps that's why people are buying it.

 

The latest World Heath Organisation estimate is a mortality rate of 3.4% for Coronavirus.  The latest figures for China are 80,703 cases, of which 3,098 have died, which works out at a case mortality rate of at least 3.8%.  57,333 people in China (71%) have recovered, which leaves 20,272 active cases: final outcome unknown.  If the survival rate of these active cases is the same as the closed cases (ie one for which there is an outcome) then that will give a final case mortality rate for China of something around 5%.  However, there will be some under reporting of people who have just mild symptoms and never get tested, which is why the WHO figure is lower.  However, it's pretty clear from China that the mortality impacts of Coronavirus are tens of times greater than for seasonal flu.

 

The figures emerging for Italy are much worse than China.  This could be because Asian people have better immunity than white Caucasians in Europe to this particular virus, or it could be because the population in Europe is older and as has been pointed out males over the age of 60, especially those with pre-existing medical conditions, seem to be the most likely to die.  It could also point to the virus mutating into a more dangerous strain than those who were first affected.  It is really too early to tell.