Exhibition cancellations (not much to do with that anymore!)

[TheQ]

6 minutes ago, Andy Hayter said:

 

Some interesting theories Pete, but they are just that; theories.

 

An alternative scenario:

The first wave rapidly got into hospitals (pre-segregation of C19 and non-C19) and care homes.  It attacked those weakest in society.  The death rate and hospitalisation rate we saw then is therefore an overstatement of the death and hospitalisation rate in the population as a whole.

 

I the second wave, it is the younger less vulnerable group of society that has been shown to be less likely to need hospitalisation and much less likely to die.  

 

Additionally there is an enormous time lag between the infection setting off and people ending up in hospital, let alone dying.   I did some rather simple calculations based on the virus having free run and an infection rate of 3 (probably much higher than currently).  Taking asymptomatic cases into account a single person would have infected over 6000 people after 7 weeks but the number of hospitalisations would be around six!  One of the reasons for that is simply that the 4000 infected in the last week would not have developed symptoms let alone become ill enough to need hospitalisation.  That 7 weeks is a huge time lag between infection in a group and the impact on hospitalisation.  Lower infection rates will stretch still further that time lag.  Don't however be fooled that the virus is necessarily less virulent because of the delays in cause and effect.

 

The recent increase in cases should at least make people, who think we can just start to free up further and have exhibitions in the near future, just have a second think about that.  

Those of us on the periphery of the UK have not had much of the Virus at all . There are still many of the older generation who could still get it in a bad way. The average age on the periphery is older too and many retire to the coast..

[298]

12 minutes ago, TEAMYAKIMA said:

Personally, speaking as someone who has a layout which needs a team of six to work together in a confined space, I cannot see how exhibitors like me would get anything from exhibiting until a 'normal' way of life returns. Running a big layout at a show is WORK and if we don't get the payback of social interaction I can see a number of exhibitors not wanting to bother until 'normality' returns.

 

I know what you mean as I have had enjoyable social weekends away with friends and a large layout, and Mrs298 when we had time to exhibit a layout.

 

But the payment of expenses can be a touchy subject in other hobbies, anyone who volunteers on a preserved railway might get a few subsidised offerings but they're pretty much paying for everything, which can include materials and PPE, and are surprised by the free weekends away model railwayists get. I actually felt guilty about doing a show last year that involved one night away in a Premier Inn and adjusted my expenses claim accordingly. There is obviously the attraction of a good quality layout that punters will want to pay to see justifying it's cost, but then again some exhibitions seem to thrive on average OO layouts from the local big four company that are a step up from the average train set because they don't go round and round, and anything else isn't worth looking at. 

 

When the new normal arrives I fear a dearth of hastily built "Furloughtons" as there will be lots of new unseen debut layouts available to book and less shows for them to appear at...

 

 

[Enterprisingwestern]

21 hours ago, AY Mod said:

There's been plenty of consideration and discussion about what can be done but there's not much in the way of practical evidence that can be learned from yet, few things are absolutely comparable and any that are haven't been held either; yet.

 

 

Just copy whatever IKEA do, nearest thing to a model railway exhibition I've ever seen, especially at the weekend.

 

Mike.

[AY Mod]

12 minutes ago, Enterprisingwestern said:

Just copy whatever IKEA do

 

I only go for the pencils.

[Enterprisingwestern]

Just now, AY Mod said:

 

I only go for the pencils.

 

Me?, for the meatballs!

 

Mike.

[Gilbert]

15 minutes ago, Enterprisingwestern said:

 

Just copy whatever IKEA do, nearest thing to a model railway exhibition I've ever seen, especially at the weekend.

 

Mike.

I beg to differ - there are more places to sit down at IKEA.....

[TEAMYAKIMA]

6 minutes ago, Enterprisingwestern said:

 

Just copy whatever IKEA do, nearest thing to a model railway exhibition I've ever seen, especially at the weekend.

 

Mike.

 

Not a bad idea at all, but again I feel we need to look at model railway exhibitions in a slightly different way.

 

The owners of Ikea want to open in order to make money and stay in business.

 

The workers at Ikea (I assume) need the money and so they want to keep their jobs and so they have to override their fears and concerns - or leave!

 

That does not apply to unpaid volunteers at a model railway exhibition.

 

And on that subject, we seem to mainly be seeing posts from exhibition visitors- some of whom are very keen to get back to visiting shows. I haven't seen much from exhibitors desperately looking to exhibit.

[298]

39 minutes ago, Enterprisingwestern said:

 

Just copy whatever IKEA do, nearest thing to a model railway exhibition I've ever seen, especially at the weekend.

 

Mike.

 

Like close my local one for good...?  It used to be handy to nip in for stuff so largely standardised on IKEA stuff at home. Now we'd have to allow for an hour's travelling, each way. If no more IKEA means no more exhibitions and no more exhibiting, I'll have to rethink home projects and the space they occupy.

 

(We tried to red pen their newest one on holiday (no.16 for us), but the queue was too long so went home).

Edited September 7, 2020 by 298

[APOLLO]

51 minutes ago, Enterprisingwestern said:

 

Just copy whatever IKEA do, nearest thing to a model railway exhibition I've ever seen, especially at the weekend.

 

Mike.

 

 And give every layout a silly name !!

 

Quote

I only go for the pencils.

 

I like the free paper measuring tapes - quite handy, fold one up and keep in your wallet.

 

Brit15

[stan williams]

In the UK, they say that three out of every five babies  are conceived in a IKEA bed.

 

Which is strange, because those stores are very well lit  !!

 

Stan.

[DutyDruid]

48 minutes ago, TEAMYAKIMA said:

 

And on that subject, we seem to mainly be seeing posts from exhibition visitors- some of whom are very keen to get back to visiting shows. I haven't seen much from exhibitors desperately looking to exhibit.

 

 

Very true, and truthfully I'm not entirely sure I would want to get thrust back into the exhibiting - and more specifically in my case demonstrating - until things have subsided to a much lower level than they are at the moment.  Was it a month or so ago we were talking about sweaty bodies and rucksacks here?  Well, during the summer I work as one of the medical team coordinators at medium sized (~4500 attendee) hippy festivals and if we think we have to deal with the "great unwashed" at exhibitions you should see what I sometimes have to deal with after a week on a festival field.  In both cases, much as I miss "the scene" I am in absolutely no hurry to get back to either of them, simply because making people who are "caught up in their moment" realise the potential impact their lack of infection control precautions is going to have on my wellbeing is frankly like trying to kick dead whales up a beach.

[PenrithBeacon]

3 hours ago, Pete the Elaner said:

 

...

That's a very polarised view. Is reality a little more complex?

...

No it isn't, absolutely not. If I don't take all precautions to avoid this disease then I invite death and grief into the family, no ifs no buts.

Nobody yet has proposed how a model railway exhibition can be arranged that conforms to social distancing rules and how visitors, exhibitors and traders can be protected from Covid. And notwithstanding an awful lot of propaganda there are reports this morning of staff at schools coming down with the infection and at least one school being closed  .  We only ito the first full week of term!

 

So, stop all the faffing and denial, if shows are going to start, how are people going to be protected? My answer is, they can't unless there is a vaccine: what's yours?

Edited September 7, 2020 by PenrithBeacon

[Pete the Elaner]

1 hour ago, Dunsignalling said:

 

Agreed, but the people who ought to know seem to have clustered around an estimate that (at least) one is likely to become available by roughly the middle of next year.

 

 

The latest I have heard is another 18 months away but has this been stated by the actual scientists, their management or their customer (the government)? This can make a big difference.

 

The normal published figure will be the most optimistic. The most realistic will be kept under wraps. It is not like there is a late contract delivery clause on something like this.

['CHARD]

7 minutes ago, Pete the Elaner said:

 

It is not like there is a late contract delivery clause on something like this.

 

Working in the opposite direction, though, there's no consequential damages liability clause (for AstraZeneca at least) either, which I for one find extremely troubling:

 

'(Reuters) - AstraZeneca has been granted protection from future product liability claims related to its COVID-19 vaccine hopeful by most of the countries with which it has struck supply agreements, a senior executive told Reuters.' 

 

Source: Reuters, July 30th 2020 here: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-astrazeneca-results-vaccine-liability/astrazeneca-to-be-exempt-from-coronavirus-vaccine-liability-claims-in-most-countries-idUSKCN24V2EN

 

Without opening up the 'to vax or not to vax' debate here, such relaxations as this are likely to speed up the vaccine.

[Pete the Elaner]

4 minutes ago, PenrithBeacon said:

 

So, stop all the faffing and denial, if shows are going to start, how are people going to be protected? The answer is, they can't unless there is a vaccine.

 

Maybe you should have read my entire post before jumping at the first line, particularly about reducing the strength of infection...& also that the situation is changing rapidly so needs to be regularly re-assessed, not judged on the situation a few weeks or months ago.

I asked more questions than I answered because there are still plenty of unknowns (see the bit about re-assessing). Learning more & adapting is more useful right now than waiting for a vaccine. I've said several times before that a vaccine does not currently exist & may not be possible, so other possibilities must be considered.

 

Accepting that an exhibition is not feasible AT THIS TIME is completely different to waiting for something which may not exist.

 

There have been many diseases which have been a major problem in the past: Spanish Flu, Cholera, SARS, TB, Tetanus are just some. They are not considered a major threat now for one reason or another. Maybe they have been beaten by herd immunity, knowledge, or by some drug. Maybe the virus simply got weaker? Who knows how this one will be beaten?

[woodenhead]

7 minutes ago, Pete the Elaner said:

 

Who knows how this one will be beaten?

It will be beaten when the media have something else to talk about, Government are making real efforts at present to conjure a new crisis and it looks like it is just weeks away now.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54051933

 

We've had wall to wall coverage, heck not even Civil Rights in America could keep Covid off the number one spot for the media for long.

 

If all the media does is talk death then what else is the general public going to be thinking about, but it's OK as Boris is here and he is going to transport us right back to June 2016 any day now.

[Phil Parker]

28 minutes ago, PenrithBeacon said:

So, stop all the faffing and denial, if shows are going to start, how are people going to be protected?

 

And how are the to be protected from accidents on the road? Statistics said that yesterday, 9 people died on the roads and 2 from Covid - and before anyone says "You can't catch road deaths" there is a good chance that those who died were in accidents caused by someone else. They could also be involved in an accident at the show - someone stumbles on the stairs, accidentally shoves someone else down the stairs and cracks their head open. Or maybe while repairing a model, the grubby screwdriver slips, cutting the finger of a modeller and they die of sepsis (100 a day in the UK).

 

The stats would also say that at some point, either a visitor or exhibitor to a show has ben killed because they chose to go to a toy train event. Ultimately, every decision is down to the individual and their personal assessment of risk. Your assessment is that you will never go out again, at least until a vaccine that you have assessed is safe and effective is available. That's fine - but it's your choice. Others will decide differently.

[Dunsignalling]

6 minutes ago, woodenhead said:

It will be beaten when the media have something else to talk about, Government are making real efforts at present to conjure a new crisis and it looks like it is just weeks away now.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54051933

 

We've had wall to wall coverage, heck not even Civil Rights in America could keep Covid off the number one spot for the media for long.

 

If all the media does is talk death then what else is the general public going to be thinking about, but it's OK as Boris is here and he is going to transport us right back to June 2016 any day now.

Pays not to watch too many news programmes. 

 

It's easy to forget they are telling us the same stuff over and over.

 

I try to ration myself to once a day, either lunch time or 6pm depending what I'm doing. Did notice the breaking report on the possibility of a vaccine early 2021, though.

 

John

 

 

[woodenhead]

39 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

Pays not to watch too many news programmes. 

 

It's easy to forget they are telling us the same stuff over and over.

 

I try to ration myself to once a day, either lunch time or 6pm depending what I'm doing. Did notice the breaking report on the possibility of a vaccine early 2021, though.

 

John

 

 

I tend to avoid news, my wife detests it and I used to be glued to it.  Early on in the pandemic I did watch more news but as time has gone on I've retreated more into Netflix, so much good content.

 

Now I tend to scan the BBC news site.

[Dunsignalling]

55 minutes ago, Phil Parker said:

 

And how are the to be protected from accidents on the road? Statistics said that yesterday, 9 people died on the roads and 2 from Covid - and before anyone says "You can't catch road deaths" there is a good chance that those who died were in accidents caused by someone else. They could also be involved in an accident at the show - someone stumbles on the stairs, accidentally shoves someone else down the stairs and cracks their head open. Or maybe while repairing a model, the grubby screwdriver slips, cutting the finger of a modeller and they die of sepsis (100 a day in the UK).

 

The stats would also say that at some point, either a visitor or exhibitor to a show has ben killed because they chose to go to a toy train event. Ultimately, every decision is down to the individual and their personal assessment of risk. Your assessment is that you will never go out again, at least until a vaccine that you have assessed is safe and effective is available. That's fine - but it's your choice. Others will decide differently.

All true, but we have, for months, been having it drummed into us that this particular bullet can be dodged if we adopt certain behaviours. Some found this harder than others, and some ceased caring altogether. I've been to the seaside a few times, and on a couple of occasions, taken one look and turned around without so much as opening a car window. 

 

In my case, and many others, it was pretty hard going to begin with, but we persevered and (so far) it's paid off. In the process, we're habitually managing our lives more cautiously than before and are reluctant to put our efforts in jeopardy by loosening up too much, too soon. Manageable risks, I'm still managing, (and more things are becoming manageable), but I'm continuing to avoid the avoidable! 

 

Government advice/propaganda over Covid19 clearly worked more effectively than they could have imagined on a significant percentage of the population, but that "new normal" is not going to be undone easily.

 

The only certain route to speeding-up the process will be the arrival of vaccines, and that will apply as much to those considering mounting events as it will to those of us deciding whether to attend them. 

 

John

Edited September 7, 2020 by Dunsignalling

[caradoc]

1 hour ago, PenrithBeacon said:

So, stop all the faffing and denial, if shows are going to start, how are people going to be protected? My answer is, they can't unless there is a vaccine: what's yours?

 

And what if there proves to be no effective vaccine - The end of normal human socialisation ? No thanks. 

 

[woodenhead]

5 minutes ago, caradoc said:

 

And what if there proves to be no effective vaccine - The end of normal human socialisation ? No thanks. 

 

There was plenty of socialisation in Newcastle on Saturday and that was in the daytime when i was about.

 

Mrs Woodenhead reports that down the gym apart from the cleaning regimes between classes (shes an instructor) then as a punter it is pretty much business as usual and no-one distances in the changing rooms.  Despite there being a pseudo ban on showering, people still use them cos you don't want to stink of the pool or sweat at work.

 

Just to demonstrate though that I am not just dissing any concerns about risk, because both myself and Mrs W had been well outside our normal bubbles on Saturday up in Darlington & Newcastle, we are now applying extra care for the next couple of weeks with her parents who are both vulnerable with one awaiting an operation imminently.

[Giles]

54 minutes ago, Phil Parker said:

 

And how are the to be protected from accidents on the road? Statistics said that yesterday, 9 people died on the roads and 2 from Covid - and before anyone says "You can't catch road deaths" there is a good chance that those who died were in accidents caused by someone else. They could also be involved in an accident at the show - someone stumbles on the stairs, accidentally shoves someone else down the stairs and cracks their head open. Or maybe while repairing a model, the grubby screwdriver slips, cutting the finger of a modeller and they die of sepsis (100 a day in the UK).

 

The stats would also say that at some point, either a visitor or exhibitor to a show has ben killed because they chose to go to a toy train event. Ultimately, every decision is down to the individual and their personal assessment of risk. Your assessment is that you will never go out again, at least until a vaccine that you have assessed is safe and effective is available. That's fine - but it's your choice. Others will decide differently.

 

But i think the bigger problem isn't that 'I might be killed',  but that 'I might kill others' - and in potentially significant numbers.

In normal life - driving for instance - we DO have mechanisms to control and mitigate this. We make dangerous driving illegal, we ensure people are licenced and insured, we prosecute and jail people for drink driving etc.. similarly, if I push someone down stairs I can be prosecuted etc.....

 

My next-door neighbour came down with Covid a couple of months ago, and an old friend (only about 40) died from it - so it's not always an academic discussion.

 

Sadly, one absolutely can't rely on every individual to be honest and sensible about the risk they pose others, and one sees that demonstrated daily.

 

With schools and universities returning I think we will learn a whole lot more about transmission in the next couple of months which will be very informative. People are rightly commenting on the relatively low death numbers of circa 65,000 but of course this is achieved having put control measures in place (lock-down etc.). The USA shows the other side to this coin. Keeping control of it in a balanced fashion would seem be be the logical approach - the last thing anyone wants is very high infection rates as this inevitably brings things to a standstill again, or some sort of Orwellian philosophy of allowing Covid to sweep through and cull whoever.

 

[woodenhead]

3 minutes ago, Giles said:

 

Orwellian philosophy of allowing Covid to sweep through and cull whoever.

 

Or Darwinian unless you think this is some sort of 'World Government' takeover manufactured pandemic.

[DutyDruid]

12 minutes ago, Giles said:

 

Sadly, one absolutely can't rely on every individual to be honest and sensible about the risk they pose others, and one sees that demonstrated daily.

 

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1329512/London-news-anti-maskers-London-tube-boris-johnson-face-masks-mandatory