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Exhibition cancellations (not much to do with that anymore!)


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9 minutes ago, PenrithBeacon said:

Now we appear to be in the second wave of Covid-19,  these speculations seem to be irrelevant.

 

No; just further away than they could have been if behaviours, rules and enforcement had been better.

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The key here is not the second wave as such but more that really everyone needs to catch the bug and then get rid of it if we are to get anywhere near normal again, of course whilst the Government needs us all to contract it, no one in the population actually wants it!!  Yes the infection detection rate is on the rise as expected but the death rate is flat.

 

Those vulnerable will of course need to continue to be cautious and shield where necessary, really everyone else should exercise common sense and carry on as normal as possible.

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12 minutes ago, John M Upton said:

that really everyone needs to catch the bug and then get rid of it if we are to get anywhere near normal again,

Do you know anyone who’s had the ‘long tail’ version? A colleagues wife is still crippled by it six months later and she was very fit hiker, those people aren’t represented in the figures, it really isn’t that simple. The recovery just stalls after a couple of weeks and she’s not alone read this:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54031587

If you get ‘long tail’ loading up your layout for a show could leave you knackered and going to bed unable to do the show! A 200yd walk is now more tiring than a day walking in the hills. It just shows how poor the understanding of it is. 
 

Edited by PaulRhB
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No John death rate is not flat.  It is low, but it has doubled in 14 days*.  Sadly it will slowly follow the infection rate.  It will not be a pleasant autumn.

 

Those who are vulnerable will die (not all but quite a few) - along with quite a number who did not know they were vulnerable.

 

* The infection rate also doubled in about the same timescale.  It is now doubling every 7 days or so - watch in fear what happens to the death rate.

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35 minutes ago, John M Upton said:

quite frankly the last one didn't do anything other than delay things a bit so they may as well just carry on as is.

 

Yes to the first part; very definitely no to the second.

 

"Delaying it a bit", or put another way controlling the rate at which people become ill and need hospital treatment, is vital, because if the bug is given free-rein all the doctors, nurses, beds, machines that go 'ping', ventilators etc will be used-up very quickly indeed. 

 

When the next seriously ill person turns up, the choice will be whether to let that person quietly fade away under pain-killers and sedation, or to turf-out the least-likely-to-survive patient already present, and sedate them until they fade away.

 

And then the next person turns-up, and the next, and the next. Same choice each time, until people stop bothering to go to hospital to die in a neon-lit side room, and stay at home to die in the comfort of their own bed instead.

 

The net affect is a very large pile of bodies in an ice-rink, the vast majority being people who could have been saved if the hospitals hadn't been deluged with too many very ill patients, too fast.

 

Spread it out thinly, fewer people die overall. 

 

Added to which, there is no guarantee that accepting a high body count in order to get it done with quickly would minimise broader economic damage - it could well result in a great many people who get very ill, but don't die, having chronic, long-term health damage, costing fortunes to care for for decades to come.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Nearholmer
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8 hours ago, Gilbert said:

Tennis Courts and Five a side pitches are relatively level........

But you won't be thanked for driving loads of ruddy great tent pegs into them, or killing the grass by covering it in floor panels....

 

John

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11 hours ago, John M Upton said:

The key here is not the second wave as such but more that really everyone needs to catch the bug and then get rid of it if we are to get anywhere near normal again, of course whilst the Government needs us all to contract it, no one in the population actually wants it!!  Yes the infection detection rate is on the rise as expected but the death rate is flat.

 

Those vulnerable will of course need to continue to be cautious and shield where necessary, really everyone else should exercise common sense and carry on as normal as possible.

It's also becoming clear that catching and recovering from Covid-19 will probably not confer indefinite immunity for most. It may reduce the severity of subsequent re-infections, but that effect is also likely to fade over time. It is thought that the safe(r) period will vary, depending on the strength of ones immune response.

 

Chinese reports have described repeat infections and suggest that 3-4 months may be as long as one can be reasonably certain of not getting it again, and there has been at least one reported instance of a patient becoming re-infected in as many weeks.

 

John

Edited by Dunsignalling
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3 hours ago, Dunsignalling said:

But you won't be thanked for driving loads of ruddy great tent pegs into them, or killing the grass by covering it in floor panels....

 

John

 

The rest of my sentence...."Artificial pitches MAY be an option but like you I am sceptical..."

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9 hours ago, John M Upton said:

The key here is . . . that really everyone needs to catch the bug and then get rid of it . . .

 

If life were only that simple!

 

If you are being serious, and it is difficult to believe that you are, I sincerely hope the people responsible for determining national policy do not heed your advice.  

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14 hours ago, PenrithBeacon said:

Now we appear to be in the second wave of Covid-19,  these speculations seem to be irrelevant.

Second wave, first wave - doesn't really matter.

 

We just need to find a way to live with this virus until it burns itself out or morphs into something less virulent.

 

Hiding in our houses hoping for a miracle cure isn't the answer it's just a reaction.

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30 minutes ago, woodenhead said:

Second wave, first wave - doesn't really matter.

 

We just need to find a way to live with this virus until it burns itself out or morphs into something less virulent.

 

Hiding in our houses hoping for a miracle cure isn't the answer it's just a reaction.

Agree with this, but I object to the implementation of the third paragraph that I'm hiding away. Last week Tesco and gardening Monday, Axminster Tools Wycombe Tuesday, roofer Wednesday to do essential repairs, trip to Minehead to visit grandchildren Thursday, knackered Friday, cleaning today.

Not a bad week for a 76 yr old. :sadclear:

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25 minutes ago, PenrithBeacon said:

Agree with this, but I object to the implementation of the third paragraph that I'm hiding away. Last week Tesco and gardening Monday, Axminster Tools Wycombe Tuesday, roofer Wednesday to do essential repairs, trip to Minehead to visit grandchildren Thursday, knackered Friday, cleaning today.

Not a bad week for a 76 yr old. :sadclear:

Apologies I was more aiming for a third person sentence about us being regularly confined to homes rather than at you.

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6 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

Trouble is, that one act of folly/stupidity/reckless-selfishness by one person can undo all the good work done by the stoical carefulness of thousands of people.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-54205353

All too true and not enough people, particularly the younger generation, are wearing masks/shields and such attitudes could cause havoc in the enclosed space of a model railway exhibition.

 

I didn't observe this first hand, but I understand that at a recent event at Duxford an unusual aeroplane landed and those present just threw caution and social distancing to the wind and rushed to get that vitally important photo. Now no more events at Duxford even though they're mostly outdoors. A shame, but it does illustrate the need for constant vigilance and how easy it is to forget

 

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On holiday in a cottage last week near Glenfinnan we went down to photograph The Jacobite.  Thinking we would have the place to ourselves for a picture of it on the viaduct, this was the sight that met us.  Social distancing eh?  (AM) 

IMG_0803.jpg

IMG_0808.jpg

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15 hours ago, John M Upton said:

The key here is not the second wave as such but more that really everyone needs to catch the bug and then get rid of it

 

Problem there is it can leave you with damage to various organs. My daughter had Covid in April which has affected her heart and now needs medication every day.

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On 18/09/2020 at 17:42, Geoff Endacott said:

Please can someone remind me which exhibition was due to be held at the school in Bacup.

 

Geoff Endacott

 

Geoff

 

Thats probably the MIOG show which you are referring to, it was held in a school in Rawtenstall, a few miles down the Valley from Bacup and an altogether more civilised place. Bacup is a town where men are men and sheep are worried, and everyone is related to each other in some way. An odd place.

 

To my knowledge there's never been a show in Bacup.

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