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Exhibition cancellations (not much to do with that anymore!)


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2 minutes ago, PaulRhB said:

The app uses Bluetooth while you’re out to log possible risks, you then only need to check it before going out, it doesn’t need to be in reception all the time ;)

It’s no harder than checking the weather on your phone. 

bluetooth  on my phone ... don't be silly..

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1 minute ago, TheQ said:

bluetooth  on my phone ... don't be silly..

And don’t disparage using the app based on that because it might keep someone at home who might have infected you! ;)
 

No one is suggesting people buy a phone to use it but it might keep those who do from spreading it unknowingly. 

 

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59 minutes ago, TEAMYAKIMA said:

20 traders booked - how many will still be in business in May?

 

Probably all of them and if any do go it may be because they've not adapted to a changed world anyway. Many businesses are doing really very well over the last 6 months; the ones that aren't are more likely to be the ones not ready for change which was going to happen anyway. Covid has accelerated a lot of things (not all bad things either).

 

What will be more of an impact to any shows is the ones that are doing very well without the need to go to the time and expense of attending shows (including the Fri/Mon impacts on their business in doing so). So, the success of many is more likely to have an impact than the problems of a few.

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The new app uses bluetooth to detect other phones not a mobile signal - that is only required to occasionally check in and establish if anyone you have previously come into contact with has now declared they have the virus.

 

Sadly the original NHS version was actually better at utilising the Bluetooth connection to establish who you have been next to and for how long, the Google/Apple version less so and will result in more errors until they decide to update their base software to use whatever algorithms the NHS had.

 

The app is also anonymous, it doesnt want to know your name or contact details and you don't log in to it, it just uses algorithms to generate codes that constantly change to record your locations and close contacts for x days before the data is deleted.  You don't even by the looks of it have to share if you test positive; which seems rather selfish, you want to know if you're infected but wont do the decent thing and tell others.

 

My big concern with the app is actually to do with the users of the app - the system would appear (and rightly so otherwise there would be serious invasions of privacy concerns) to use self reporting of covid as the basis for alerting. i.e. you indicate to the app you are self isolating, this uploads an anonymous notification to a central database which is read by other phones and alerts anyone who has been near to the person alerting within set guidelines.  Sounds perfectly plausible and sound, but what if some idiot decides to visit 20 locations today, mill around in a mask and then go home and alert the system that they are self isolating even though they know there is nothing wrong with them - would that then mean lots of people in those 20 locations suddenly find themselves in self isolation (under threat of a fine now).  Or friends who want a couple of weeks of Government hand outs (for the low paid) using the system to spoof a self isolation and then claim the benefit.  Reading some notes it does appear that the system would link tests to the app if you book the test via the phone, but that would also suggest that you can self report if you've not used the app for the test booking.

 

I understand the system will be useful and when visiting places scanning QR codes is better than giving everyone your name, address and contact number, but I'd rather the government get in place a proper testing regime, get their messaging right, play by the rules themselves and ensure robust contact tracing via traditional methods and not just let an app be the only hope.

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10 minutes ago, AY Mod said:

 

Probably all of them and if any do go it may be because they've not adapted to a changed world anyway. Many businesses are doing really very well over the last 6 months; the ones that aren't are more likely to be the ones not ready for change which was going to happen anyway. Covid has accelerated a lot of things (not all bad things either).

 

What will be more of an impact to any shows is the ones that are doing very well without the need to go to the time and expense of attending shows (including the Fri/Mon impacts on their business in doing so). So, the success of many is more likely to have an impact than the problems of a few.

 

Yes, very good point - but yet another potential problem

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23 hours ago, Phil Parker said:

 

We are never going back to "some sort of normality". The virus will always exist somewhere in the world.

 

I think this is unnecessarily pessimistic.  Of course we will return to normality, and I'm not even gracing it with the nonsensical term so beloved of government and media, 'New Normal.'  Unless there's some other agenda, the profit motive alone will bring about a vaccine in due course and global commerce will crack on as before.

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57 minutes ago, john new said:

 

One or two obvious snags with it though 

  • the many rural places where mobile coverage is still very poor,
  • non-mobile phone users can't use it anyway. Many will be the very vulnerable like my elderly mother, perfectly able to go shopping on her own etc., at 97 but never has got the hang of mobile phones and even if she did buy one and try again coverage in her village area is rubbish (as point above).

 

But you miss the important point John.

 

The reason why there is poor coverage in rural areas is because there are few people there.  If there are few people there is less likelihood of the virus being transmitted there.  It is why the hot spots are in city, densely populated areas and not for example in the Peak district.  

 

It is not the ideal system but like face masks which cannot guarantee you cannot get or pass on the virus, it does help.

 

Let's not be over-critical of the good because it fall short of perfection.   

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27 minutes ago, woodenhead said:

 

 

My big concern with the app is actually to do with the users of the app - the system would appear (and rightly so otherwise there would be serious invasions of privacy concerns) to use self reporting of covid as the basis for alerting. i.e. you indicate to the app you are self isolating, this uploads an anonymous notification to a central database which is read by other phones and alerts anyone who has been near to the person alerting within set guidelines.  Sounds perfectly plausible and sound, but what if some idiot decides to visit 20 locations today, mill around in a mask and then go home and alert the system that they are self isolating even though they know there is nothing wrong with them - would that then mean lots of people in those 20 locations suddenly find themselves in self isolation (under threat of a fine now).  Or friends who want a couple of weeks of Government hand outs (for the low paid) using the system to spoof a self isolation and then claim the benefit.  Reading some notes it does appear that the system would link tests to the app if you book the test via the phone, but that would also suggest that you can self report if you've not used the app for the test booking.

 

 

I can imagine some teenager just getting his / her phone to say they had Covid, and then wandering up and down the high street getting close to people..

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1 minute ago, TheQ said:

I can imagine some teenager just getting his / her phone to say they had Covid, and then wandering up and down the high street getting close to people..

 

They have to hang around with you for 15 minutes or more to generate a report, so if a weirdo starts following you around, that's probably what they are up to.

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9 minutes ago, Andy Hayter said:

 

But you miss the important point John.

 

The reason why there is poor coverage in rural areas is because there are few people there.  If there are few people there is less likelihood of the virus being transmitted there.  It is why the hot spots are in city, densely populated areas and not for example in the Peak district.  

 

It is not the ideal system but like face masks which cannot guarantee you cannot get or pass on the virus, it does help.

 

Let's not be over-critical of the good because it fall short of perfection.   

 

Concur that it is a start and I agree it will definitely help, and essential for urban areas. I may not have defined rural closely enough, semi-rural would probably have been better, plus those people you mention do visit the nearby towns and cities for shopping, vehicle fuel etc.. Where I live could perhaps be defined  as  suburban (IIRC 8,500 pop) but due to the nature of the landform there are several areas of no, or very poor, coverage both on the Island here and elsewhere around this western side of Dorset. In the three locations where my mother and daughters live in N Yorkshire it is even worse, and it isn't that sparse a population in the Vale of York!

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5 hours ago, Neil said:

I could imagine that a good percentage of people would feel inhibited challenging someone in public about mask wearing, but that would be conjecture too.

 

I have seen plenty of folk not wearing a mask, or wearing one incorrectly, on trains, buses, and in shops, for example, but I have not and will not challenge them, because;

 

I don't know whether they are exempt (if no mask at all)

I do not want to risk confrontation (possibly more likely with those not wearing their mask properly ?)

I have no authority over other people. 

 

On the other hand, I have not and will not surreptitiously photograph a non-mask wearer and then publicise it on the internet. 

 

Finally, I agree absolutely that what the MP did was wrong, but I doubt he is the only person not to have worn a mask when required to, and at least (as far as we know) this was an oversight rather than deliberate non-compliance. 

 

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1 hour ago, 'CHARD said:

 

I think this is unnecessarily pessimistic.  Of course we will return to normality, and I'm not even gracing it with the nonsensical term so beloved of government and media, 'New Normal.'  Unless there's some other agenda, the profit motive alone will bring about a vaccine in due course and global commerce will crack on as before.

 

No other disease in  history has ended normality. Not even the Black Death - and that seems to have come back , in murderous force, every 6-8 years in towns, for over 3 centuries. Not Spanish Flu, not smallpox , not Russian Flu , not typhoid, not cholera

 

Eventually coronavirus will either burn out , after a horrifying death toll, or we will get an effective vaccine or treatment. That might well be as early as the spring.

 

While the prospect of the next 6 months is gloomy, we are now probably too pessimistic and are discounting everything completely, whereas in the spring we were unduly optimistic that it would all be over by the autumn.

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1 hour ago, 'CHARD said:

 

I think this is unnecessarily pessimistic.  Of course we will return to normality, and I'm not even gracing it with the nonsensical term so beloved of government and media, 'New Normal.'  Unless there's some other agenda, the profit motive alone will bring about a vaccine in due course and global commerce will crack on as before.

Totally agree, a very pessimistic opinion. We got back to normal after Spanish flu, the SARS pandemic, Aids, Foot and mouth and every other “crisis” which has befallen mankind. It may not exactly match the “ normal” we knew before but ......

Also, I don’t think this forum is the place to make overtly political comments against the present government. No government anywhere in the World has come up with a right way to tackle this pandemic yet and you can’t please everybody all of the time. We know a government advisor stepped over the line but it was 6 months ago, simply repeating it as ad infinitum  will not get rid of Covid. Move on.

if people took more personal responsibility rather than blame government (any government) then perhaps we may get out of this thing quicker. Sorry rant over!

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I thought I understood that disease historically HAD changed 'normality' at least in England in medieval times when the Black Death wiped out a third of the population and finished feudalism making land almost worthless (the primary source of wealth at the time).

 

 

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21 minutes ago, Giles said:

I thought I understood that disease historically HAD changed 'normality' at least in England in medieval times when the Black Death wiped out a third of the population and finished feudalism making land almost worthless (the primary source of wealth at the time).

 

 

 

It took about 30 years and multiple epidemics with heavy loss of life for the feudal system to break down here. There was a long slow slide in population over a century and a half. Land wasn't worthless, but labour became valuable (If you couldn't find enough , you simply turfed out the remaining villagers, hired a couple of shepherds and turned the land over to sheep...Wool was a valuable cash crop)

 

But it didn't end pubs or Christmas celebrations, or cause the end of towns, or of religious services, or mean the  permanent end of normal social life. It didn't even stop the Hundred Years war (Crecy 1346, Poitiers 1356..)

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I think there were a number of plagues that century, with the Black Death arriving in England in June 1348, creating such a shortage of labour that in 1349 King Edward passed the 'Ordinance of Labourers' in an attempt to restore order to the feudal society, and prevent upward movement of the lower classes. This was reinforced by Parliaments 'Statute of Labourers' in 1351. It was certainly a tipping point by any measure.

 

No, it didn't stop Christmas from happening etc.... but it did change (or evolve) things  - and that perhaps is the nature of things. For hundreds of years afterwards, when the Pestilence or Plague came to the cities, the rich would take off for the country till it was over.....

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Just now, Giles said:

 For hundreds of years afterwards, when the Pestilence or Plague came to the cities, the rich would take off for the country till it was over.....

or Barnard Castle........sorry........

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There are now notices up at work telling anyone using the app to turn tracing off when their phone is in their locker (me being in a sub-class that aren't allowed to carry phones at all times). Although with Bluetooth being quite power hungry the phone will quickly run itself down before it finds other comrades also locked up in a metal box.

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8 hours ago, adrianmc said:

And we are now starting to get quite a few cancelled for 2021.

 

https://www.cmra.org.uk/diary21.html

 

Not all shows are listed. Calne (January) wasn't listed which saved the job of cancelling it.

 

Trainwest (April) isn't listed yet and may not be because it is staring to look as though the next show will be delayed until 2022. The layouts are all booked for 2021 and have been placed on standby for 2022. The official position at the moment is wait and see.

 

Geoff Endacott

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1 hour ago, 298 said:

There are now notices up at work telling anyone using the app to turn tracing off when their phone is in their locker (me being in a sub-class that aren't allowed to carry phones at all times). Although with Bluetooth being quite power hungry the phone will quickly run itself down before it finds other comrades also locked up in a metal box.

We aren't allowed phones on in our work for most areas, as they could interfere with the equipment especially in the Cal labs. Phones would have difficulty getting any signal in a metal box. 

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It certainly seems to me that the likelihood of model railway exhibitions anytime before Easter are very slim for many of the reasons stated by many others, which I won't repeat.

 

What does seem clear though is that when we get back to having regular exhibitions (next spring / summer?), then there will be far fewer exhibitions. I know that a number of you would disagree, but I have felt that for a number of years that there are far too many exhibitions, so would a 30% reduction really be an issue?

 

As many shops / traders in both our high streets and model railways have evolved into more internet based shopping, surely fewer traders would want to attend exhibitions? Perhaps more specialist traders could be tempted back to exhibitions to display their products, having been previously out-priced and replaced by 'box-shifters'? Of course, this does affect the income for the organisers and less able to have layouts / operators travelling long distances with the associated travelling expenses and overnight accommodation. Will we see smaller shows with 'local layouts' with only the larger shows able to cover the expenses?

 

One thing is certain though, there has / will continue to be a shift in our lives (I don't like the terms 'social distancing' or 'new-normal') for quite some considerable time. How long that will be is anyone's guess. All the medical 'experts' can do is work on worst case as no one has a crystal ball or indeed any experience of similar events in living memory.

 

Apart from the enjoyment of exhibiting, the main aspect that I miss the most is the social side of the exhibition circuit, but content to wait until we are able to return. 

 

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8 minutes ago, mudmagnet said:

...

 

What does seem clear though is that when we get back to having regular exhibitions (next spring / summer?), then there will be far fewer exhibitions. I know that a number of you would disagree, but I have felt that for a number of years that there are far too many exhibitions, so would a 30% reduction really be an issue? ...

 

It might be for clubs who depend on the annual show to pay the bills for the clubroom. If we see fewer shows we might also see a reduction in the number of clubs

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