Exhibition cancellations (not much to do with that anymore!)

[Captain Kernow]

On 15/05/2020 at 14:16, PaulRhB said:

Yep and why not get on with some actual modelling

I would do, but I'm waiting for some varnish to dry!

 

[JohnDMJ]

 

 

59 minutes ago, Phil Parker said:

 

That may be true, but your "suspicion" isn't the same as a definite ban by the government. The venue hire isn't going to hand back cash on anything other than a definite ban. That's how contracts work.

 

I agree, but given the furlough situation, there could be a major influence!

 

[D6775]

Posting here as well as in our own thread:

 

***Important Information below***

 

Given the world crisis with Coronavirus we have had numerous discussions amongst the MIOG team and from theses discussions we feel that we now have no alternative but to cancel the show for the;

 

24th/25th of October 2020. 

 

We feel that we will not be able to offer an exhibition that would be not only safe, for exhibitors & traders, but also safe for visitors to the exhibition. We don’t have the space to allow us to comply with social distancing regulations that are currently being enforced by the government. We’ve been exploring various options regarding this, and unfortunately we feel that it would not be safe to hold the exhibition at the end of the year. Combined with the none guarantee that the tourism trade will be back open. Which could make booking exhibitors and traders into nearby hotels difficult. It could also affect visitor numbers to the exhibition, and would mean the show could potentially run at a loss, and traders would be out of pocket. 

 

We hope that everyone who was signed up and planned to attend the show in 2020 will understand the difficult decision that we’ve had to make. It’s certainly not one that we’ve taken lightly.

We endeavour to work with our sponsors, traders & exhibitors to confirm a new date for 2021 at the new venue of Crewe Heritage Centre, once we deem it safe to restart and run the exhibition in a safe manner. We will be contacting Traders & Exhibitors later in the year to book for our new 2021 exhibition once we have confirmed these details with the venue.

 

We hope that you’ll understand our decision and continue to support the Modern Image O Gauge show & venture. If you have any further questions regarding this year's show, please don’t hesitate to contact us at modernimageogauge@gmail.com

 

Edited May 17, 2020 by D6775

[Deltic]

22 hours ago, Phil Parker said:

 

That may be true, but your "suspicion" isn't the same as a definite ban by the government. The venue hire isn't going to hand back cash on anything other than a definite ban. That's how contracts work.

One item that seems to not have been raised is Public Liability Insurance.  Even if a Venue is available, can suitable insurance been obtained. Without insurance cover I doubt many would wish to hold an event - they become liable for all claims made. Which at this time is a rabbit hole that Club and Group Officers would not want to dive into, To prove or disprove that an infection was contracted at an event will not be an easy task.

 

Whilst that may not part of the Contract with the Venue it is a good piece of reasoning to approach a Venue to either offer a Refund or time shift the booking to say 2021.  An example being the Cruise Industry, many are offering free booking transfer to 2021 - normaly there would be a Fee for such an amendment. Some Venues actually wish sight of suitable Insurance Cover, so perhaps another option for seeking a refund, if cover cannot be obtained.

 

In addition it has been stated at numerous briefings that Social Distancing will be required until a vaccine has been deployed.  Which will impact on attendance figures and therefore revenue, that is even before you look at how to provide catering to all involved , let alone the Public.

 

Yes, we all wish to see a return to events great and small - but a good many will hold back on their attending until there is clear evidence that infections are under control.

 

[caradoc]

19 minutes ago, Deltic said:

In addition it has been stated at numerous briefings that Social Distancing will be required until a vaccine has been deployed.  Which will impact on attendance figures and therefore revenue, that is even before you look at how to provide catering to all involved , let alone the Public.

 

Personally I don't see how social distancing can possibly maintained until a vaccine has not only been developed, but tested and proved to be safe, and manufactured and distributed in huge quantities sufficient to treat millions of people, and not just in the UK either ! The present lockdown has effectively ended normal life for most people, and sooner or later the resulting adverse effect on health and wellbeing will outweigh the risk from Coronavirus. The difficulty all politicians of whatever hue have is deciding when and how to relax or abolish the restrictions.

 

 

[woodenhead]

1 minute ago, caradoc said:

 

Personally I don't see how social distancing can possibly maintained until a vaccine has not only been developed, but tested and proved to be safe, and manufactured and distributed in huge quantities sufficient to treat millions of people, and not just in the UK either ! The present lockdown has effectively ended normal life for most people, and sooner or later the resulting adverse effect on health and wellbeing will outweigh the risk from Coronavirus. The difficulty all politicians of whatever hue have is deciding when and how to relax or abolish the restrictions.

 

Things will loosen when enough of us have had it and they can prove it - the vaccine will be the icing on the cake if they can develop one.  When there is a vaccine it will be administered to those most at risk first and then down from there - we might not even all need it.

 

My employers are currently looking at the current situation with regards letting people come back into the office, pretty much the whole organisation decamped to home working - pretty amazing and with some fortitude because we'd only just changed telephony systems to one that was wholly cloud based just a month before.  We provide council services and kept everything running as it should and in line with council requirements opened new services around covid assistance as well as developing some new apps to help bodies dealing with people who are currently in enforced isolation.   For a return to office the company is currently trying to understand the impact on liability insurance of having people in the office though we expect most to remain at home for some people it is almost impossible for them to work at home due to their circumstances.

[PaulRhB]

40 minutes ago, caradoc said:

 

, and sooner or later the resulting adverse effect on health and wellbeing will outweigh the risk from Coronavirus.

 

While I agree with the general thoughts in your post I’m not clear how any other health risk outweighs the risk of possible death from coronavirus! 
Sheer frustration may convince people to take a gamble on what would happen but I wouldn’t call it a risk assessment. 

Our club is already seriously considering when they need to make a decision on possibly cancelling the show in March next year. Personally I  just cannot see how we adapt the layout of the show for distancing as it would halve the number of exhibits and layouts operated from the front are even more difficult.
For now it’s in a bit of limbo because the experts are telling us even if a vaccine is developed now it will take until the end of the year for widespread use. So really we are looking at having to make decisions at least 7-8 months out or you’re taking a huge gamble on supply once it exists if there’s a six month lead time. 

Realistically only once we have a vaccine can we start to plan for shows happening and we will have 6-8 months to prepare. All those bigger shows that have stepped back a year also book 2-3 years in advance so no doubt some of our 2021-23 bookings may well be moved back a year too. 

[Joseph_Pestell]

41 minutes ago, PaulRhB said:

While I agree with the general thoughts in your post I’m not clear how any other health risk outweighs the risk of possible death from coronavirus! 
Sheer frustration may convince people to take a gamble on what would happen but I wouldn’t call it a risk assessment. 

Our club is already seriously considering when they need to make a decision on possibly cancelling the show in March next year. Personally I  just cannot see how we adapt the layout of the show for distancing as it would halve the number of exhibits and layouts operated from the front are even more difficult.
For now it’s in a bit of limbo because the experts are telling us even if a vaccine is developed now it will take until the end of the year for widespread use. So really we are looking at having to make decisions at least 7-8 months out or you’re taking a huge gamble on supply once it exists if there’s a six month lead time. 

Realistically only once we have a vaccine can we start to plan for shows happening and we will have 6-8 months to prepare. All those bigger shows that have stepped back a year also book 2-3 years in advance so no doubt some of our 2021-23 bookings may well be moved back a year too. 

 

There is another possible scenario. If the anti-body test shows that most people have in fact already been exposed to CoViD-19, no real need for a vaccine.

[Dunsignalling]

I think there is a crucial sticking point that will determine when the show circuit can get back to any semblance of the state in which we left it.

 

It seems fairly obvious that, if current social distancing were to be imposed on such gatherings, the effect on hall capacity would be sufficient to render almost all of them financially unviable. 

 

Even if the restrictions were to be lifted for the general population by, say, the end of the year,  the demographic of our hobby is such that many would-be show goers fall within, or uncomfortably close to, groups whose lives are at above-average risk from the effects of this virus. Few of them are likely to be willing to cease social distancing until they have had, and recovered from it or there is a proven vaccine and they have received it.

 

Until one or both applies to the vast majority of us, even in the unlikely event that an unrestricted show were to be arranged, could it possibly attract a level of attendance sufficient to generate a surplus over the cost of mounting it?

 

John

 

 

 

 

Edited May 17, 2020 by Dunsignalling

[Phil Parker]

47 minutes ago, PaulRhB said:

While I agree with the general thoughts in your post I’m not clear how any other health risk outweighs the risk of possible death from coronavirus! 

 

Well, cancer treatment referrals have halved and that's not the only disease people aren't going to the doctor for. Some cancer experts suggest that long term, more people could die from this, because the disease isn't caught quickly enough for treatment, than from Covid. Large numbers of lonely people constantly bombarded by bad news and prophesies are also a significant suicide risk. It's one of the reasons I tend to stamp on competitive doom-mongers on here.

[PaulRhB]

5 minutes ago, Phil Parker said:

 

Well, cancer treatment referrals have halved and that's not the only disease people aren't going to the doctor for. Some cancer experts suggest that long term, more people could die from this, because the disease isn't caught quickly enough for treatment, than from Covid.
 

Yes and hospitals are opening up other departments again because of this now the risks of overwhelming the hospitals are under control and there have already been messages to still call your doctor even with covid as they can assess if a personal visit is necessary. The fog of media sensationalism and bad info has caused that fear and misunderstanding and I know of a couple of people who’ve ended up in hospital as normal because they used the system and were got in urgently. It is complicating recovery as they have to avoid everyone but as with a friend who’s recently had a transplant friends rallied round and did all the shopping for them. 
Stopping the repetitive numbers reporting in the media and doing some interviews as to how our hospitals are separating covid red areas from other functions now would be a far better use of their platform but they are too fixated on the bad stories! 

 

5 minutes ago, Phil Parker said:

 

Large numbers of lonely people constantly bombarded by bad news and prophesies are also a significant suicide risk. It's one of the reasons I tend to stamp on competitive doom-mongers on here.

I can understand that very well from personal experience and appreciate the efforts that have been going in from Andy and you, plus any other less visible BRM mods, in dealing with the frustrations ending up on here boiling threads over more and well outside the working day. 
The suicide issue is all too prevalent in our minds on the railway system too as to the effects on wider employment as we come out of the furlough cover. 
So thanks for what some see as stomping but it is appreciated by most of us  

 

1 hour ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

 

There is another possible scenario. If the anti-body test shows that most people have in fact already been exposed to CoViD-19, no real need for a vaccine.

Corona viruses mutate, as the common cold, it’s highly unlikely we will control it without one and that’s from someone working at Porton. 
It’s about giving those people and the amazing work being done on the wards time by using the social distancing etc that should be featured at the top of the news not whose to blame.

Patience will very probably be rewarded and so far we’ve been in lockdown less time than I had stuck on my back recovering from just a broken leg a few years ago so I tend to think compared to the risk of this, that  was nothing. 

[Joseph_Pestell]

12 minutes ago, PaulRhB said:

 

 

Corona viruses mutate, as the common cold, it’s highly unlikely we will control it without one and that’s from someone working at Porton. 

 

If it mutates, a vaccine is not going to be any more useful than self-produced antibodies. All a vaccine does is cause the body to generate antibodies.

 

And this, of course, why 60 years of research at Porton Down has still not procued a cure for the "common" cold. 

[PaulRhB]

No like flu it will probably require many developments over the years. 
Ok back to exhibitions before we wander miles off course again  

 

More online shows like the members day and our WNGM mini meet yesterday really help. 
We had issues with Zoom wanting passwords that then didn’t work, turned out to be an update yesterday that appears to have invalidated those created a few weeks back!

Anyway 27 minutes of technological frustration getting in for several of us were solved by judicious sharing of the solution via WhatsApp. The first video shown was a members new turntable that was a bit underpowered until he put on a tiny eggerbahn loco. Sensing it was time to strut it’s stuff it span round, like a whirling dervish, lobbing the loco back on shed. Fortunately no damage apart from pride but it certainly made the afternoon’s frustrations go away  

Edited May 17, 2020 by PaulRhB

[DutyDruid]

1 hour ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

 

And this, of course, why 60 years of research at Porton Down has still not procued a cure for the "common" cold. 

 

 

Don't be fooled!  The Common Cold Research Unit at Porton Down is not what it seems...

[woodenhead]

I think regardless of vaccines, infection rates and distancing - exhibitions will restart when sufficient numbers of exhibitors, traders and us, the great unwashed, are ready to all congregate in a cold or stuffy (depending on time of year) hall without fear of catching something awful from the person next to, in front of or behind them.

 

We're a long way of that at the moment.

[Crewlisle]

4 hours ago, Dunsignalling said:

I think there is a crucial sticking point that will determine when the show circuit can get back to any semblance of the state in which we left it.

 

It seems fairly obvious that, if current social distancing were to be imposed on such gatherings, the effect on hall capacity would be sufficient to render almost all of them financially unviable. 

 

Even if the restrictions were to be lifted for the general population by, say, the end of the year,  the demographic of our hobby is such that many would-be show goers fall within, or uncomfortably close to, groups whose lives are at above-average risk from the effects of this virus. Few of them are likely to be willing to cease social distancing until they have had, and recovered from it or there is a proven vaccine and they have received it.

 

Until one or both applies to the vast majority of us, even in the unlikely event that an unrestricted show were to be arranged, could it possibly attract a level of attendance sufficient to generate a surplus over the cost of mounting it?

 

John

 

 

 

 

 

John.

,

There have been quite a number of posts on this forum quoting social distancing, but I think yours is the first to mention 'social groups'.  Among layout operators, traders & of course visitors, about  25% are over 65.  How could an exhibition be financially viable when social distancing is added?

 

In recent days there has been speculation that no theatres or cinemas will be allowed to open until the end of the year.

 

Peter

 

 

Edited May 17, 2020 by Crewlisle
Spelling mistake.

[Erichill16]

One of the issues I have and it’s not just relevant to exhibition is who is responsible if a customer/member of the public doesn’t practice social distancing? I certainly don’t want to spend the weekend enforcing distancing measures. I’m fed up with walking around supermarkets and being followed by a numskull. Sometimes it’s the staff!
At our exhibition we make a good proportion  of our profit from catering and i think that will take a bigger hit than the number of visitors. Punters will risk going to see the models but do without the catering. (If it’s available)

One consideration I have is whether  once deciding to have the exhibition enough exhibitors will still be willing to come when the date finally comes round. It’s bad enough under normal circumstances to find an odd replacement at the last minute.

We are fortunate at our club as the venue has said they will give a full refund if we cancel more than thirty days in advance and our show is not until November. A lot can happen in that time but I think it will get cancelled.

As far as i can see, expenses up, income down = not worth the risk.(or aggravation)

Regards 

Robert

[John M Upton]

Is it vaguely possible to get some positivity and hope into this thread, some of the discussion is getting way too pessimistic for my taste!

[Barry O]

Meanwhile, back at my work bench.. lots of aroundtuits are now being finished.. Still loads kits to get stuck into.. rather than being negative..think positive..think modelling!!

 

baz

[woodenhead]

40 minutes ago, John M Upton said:

Is it vaguely possible to get some positivity and hope into this thread, some of the discussion is getting way too pessimistic for my taste!

I guess because we're still in the middle of this with no sign of a way back to how things used to be.

 

One day we will have some exhibitions again, in the meantime there is still modelling and RMWeb.

 

My layout is making progress, maybe it's the lockdown

[JohnDMJ]

 

 

40 minutes ago, John M Upton said:

Is it vaguely possible to get some positivity and hope into this thread, some of the discussion is getting way too pessimistic for my taste!

 

Sorry, John, but practicality rules here! With furlough extended until October, any talk of shows before then has to be extremely optimistic bordering on the ridiculous.

[Lodekka]

Not if you leave the meter on the DCV RANGES!!

 

or you CURRENTLY won’t have an OHM to go to.

 

OK OK, I’ll get my coat.

keep safe and well all.

[MarcD]

What was it that George Bernard Shaw said "the power of accurate observation is called cynicism by those who do not possess it!"

We can all stick our heads in a bucket this bug isn't going anywhere soon and I fear we aren't either

Marc

[andyman7]

10 minutes ago, JohnDMJ said:

 

 

 

Sorry, John, but practicality rules here! With furlough extended until October, any talk of shows before then has to be extremely optimistic bordering on the ridiculous.

Only because you've mentioned it twice already, can I point out that the furlough scheme gets wound down between August and October. The whole point is that between those times businesses are as far as possible encouraged to restart. I completely understand why exhibition managers and clubs have had no choice but to pull exhibitions, but I remain hopeful that from late summer the possibility exists within the guidance and knowledge that will the apply for at least one or two small events to take place that can perhaps be arranged at shorter lead times. 

 

[Erichill16]

One of the issues is some clubs need their exhibition just to survive and the committee of those clubs have some very big decisions   to make on behalf of the membership. Some call it pessimism but I’d call it realism. People who need to make these decisions need to speak freely to each other to form a consensus. None of us are professional exhibition organisers so every little ‘angle’ may be significant.

Peckers up,

Robert