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Exhibition cancellations (not much to do with that anymore!)


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4 hours ago, Wheres_Wally said:

Until there is a vaccine is developed, and there are plenty on here who say this will never happen, and it is rolled out to at least 65% of the population, then I can't see large indoor gatherings being possible. Even the most optimistic guess for development is the autumn. After that you need to jab 40 million people. How long for that, remembering the low takeup of MMR? A year? Two? Never?

 

I have no idea if or when an effective vaccine will be developed and administered; Hopefully as soon as possible. Regardless of that however, there will come a time, maybe not too far away, when people will simply no longer accept the lack of large gatherings, indoors or outside too; Not just model train shows but events attracting far greater numbers, eg sport, concerts, the theatre, cinema, etc. Very few, if any, of these would be viable with the current social distancing instructions. People will have to decide if they wish to attend, whether working, volunteering or just visiting. The current situation simply cannot, and will not, continue with no end or hope in sight.

 

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4 hours ago, Wheres_Wally said:

Until there is a vaccine is developed, and there are plenty on here who say this will never happen, and it is rolled out to at least 65% of the population, then I can't see large indoor gatherings being possible. Even the most optimistic guess for development is the autumn. After that you need to jab 40 million people. How long for that, remembering the low takeup of MMR? A year? Two? Never?

 

 

 

You seem to be basing your judgement on the availability of a vaccine & the view that we are all doomed without one.

This is very narrow minded & an insult to scientists working hard to find alternatives.

 

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4 minutes ago, Pete the Elaner said:

 

You seem to be basing your judgement on the availability of a vaccine & the view that we are all doomed without one.

This is very narrow minded & an insult to scientists working hard to find alternatives.

 

Doom is a very subjective word..... it seams it depends on your sex, ethnicity, age or health. Life, as it is, might be doomed for some.

 

Griff

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27 minutes ago, caradoc said:

 

I have no idea if or when an effective vaccine will be developed and administered; Hopefully as soon as possible. Regardless of that however, there will come a time, maybe not too far away, when people will simply no longer accept the lack of large gatherings, indoors or outside too; Not just model train shows but events attracting far greater numbers, eg sport, concerts, the theatre, cinema, etc. Very few, if any, of these would be viable with the current social distancing instructions. People will have to decide if they wish to attend, whether working, volunteering or just visiting. The current situation simply cannot, and will not, continue with no end or hope in sight.

 

 

A vaccine is not the only answer.

A breakthrough was made last week with a drug which inhibited the immune system's dangerous over-reaction.

The NHS are taking plasma donations to extract antibodies. If these can be transfused, they may provide protection.

 

How many have recovered without being tested? Testing was only available to the very ill until recently so there may be millions out there who have recovered.

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Have you met Railway Modellers...? They'd rather pay £10 to travel to a show that has 25 local layouts for £6 instead of £8 travel costs for a £7 show with twenty excellent layouts from all over the country. Hence lots of shows have chosen to downsize or move to a different format (ie 1 day) just to cover their costs and make them viable. It'll be a long time before the new normal is an indication of what will work in certain areas and we see how attendance is trending.

 

I did a show in the middle of March on the last weekend before lockdown and to be honest footfall was probably less, but the reinvented format still ensured that it made the efforts of the organisers worthwhile. But I'm sure if they'd have known then what they know now then some last minute publicity of "get your modelling supplies and bargains in because this might be the last show until next year" might have made things different. 

 

And social distancing and sanitation wasn't really a problem (don't forget football matches and the Cheltenham festival were still to happen) until some old soak wandered in from a nearby bar and leant on me because I really needed a go on his guess the team scratch card...

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5 hours ago, Wheres_Wally said:

Until there is a vaccine is developed, and there are plenty on here who say this will never happen, and it is rolled out to at least 65% of the population, then I can't see large indoor gatherings being possible. Even the most optimistic guess for development is the autumn. After that you need to jab 40 million people. How long for that, remembering the low takeup of MMR? A year? Two? Never?

 

 

Two completely different scenarios

 

MMR was subjected to a misguided campaign backed up by false claims and spread by the irresponsible media.

Also it is aimed at children whose parents make the decision and these days often use social media rather than their GP etc. as guidance, for better or worse.

 

A vaccine for Covid-19 will be aimed at vunerable groups (underlying health problems, elderly, susceptability etc.) first who I reckon will gladly partake.

If those of the younger generation who seem to have treated Covid-19 restrictions as an assault on their liberty, refuse, that's up to them.

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Vaccines and treatments, which in either case may or may not prove to be effective, do not provide the only prospect of overcoming the threat of an overwhelming number of cases, which is currently restricting so many aspects of life. If the current level of infection is maintained, with "r" kept close to 1, the virus will eventually creep through most of the active population. So long as infection and recovery provide individuals with a useful period of immunity from reinfection, the virus will find it more and more difficult to find new hosts, the "r" value will dwindle and resumption of life in previously normal ways will be possible.

It is simply too soon to tell what will happen, and too soon to start being adventurous. It is also too soon to claim that the government has got everything wrong, or didn't act soon enough in the earlier stages. It could turn out that their overall package of measures is exactly the right thing. There is certainly the risk that if a financially ruinous lockdown were maintained in order to try to utterly the current wave of the virus, yet no effective vaccine or treatment were ever found, there never would be a "safe" way out of that lockdown because so many in the population would still be susceptible to infection introduced (or re-introduced) from unexpected sources.

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6 hours ago, Wheres_Wally said:

Until there is a vaccine is developed, and there are plenty on here who say this will never happen, and it is rolled out to at least 65% of the population, then I can't see large indoor gatherings being possible. Even the most optimistic guess for development is the autumn. After that you need to jab 40 million people. How long for that, remembering the low takeup of MMR? A year? Two? Never?

 

By that point traders will have evolved their businesses to do without shows. Exhibition stock will have been absorbed into the general stock. How many will want to set up to do shows all over again when they have managed without perfectly well for 12-18 months? Exhibitions are hard work with no guarantee of a financial return. If you don't need them, why bother? 

 

No trade=no show. At least no show of any sice unless people are willing to pay a lot more for admission. Can't see many on here doing that, there's enough moaning about price now!

 

 


I think that you have raised some good points here.

 

i think the trade scene will change as and when we get exhibitions back, I think we will always have the box shifters as they normally also have a good interest presence.  It is the specialist trader that I fear for (the ones who sell the detailing bits and bobs Etc), these normally don’t have such a presence on the internet and rely more on the exhibition circuit for their main income.  Good exhibitions need both types of traders to tempt us fare paying public to attend.  I hope that I am wrong.

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34 minutes ago, griffgriff said:

Doom is a very subjective word..... it seams it depends on your sex, ethnicity, age or health. Life, as it is, might be doomed for some.

 

Griff

Technically, we are all doomed!  We'll all throw a 7 at some point, no escaping that fact!

 

Some groups are at more risk from different things, in reality, we never know when our time is up.  You could be fit and healthy, doing all the things you need to keep yourself alive, but could just die with no warning or explanation.  Or you could be in a vegetative state and live for 5 years.

 

No one knows how long we all have, only your chosen deity, if any.  One thing thats for sure is that we cant go through life avoiding anything that could lead to our demise, otherwise we'd never get out of bed!  Even that could kill us!  Worrying about everything only makes you miserable.

 

 

 

 

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39 minutes ago, Pete the Elaner said:

How many have recovered without being tested? Testing was only available to the very ill until recently so there may be millions out there who have recovered.

Only this week the bbc quoted the statistic 19 out of 20 people recover without hospital intervention.

 

The link for this is further back in the thread.

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There are different types of shows, and different types of traders.

 

Probably the smallest shows are the 009 Society/7mm NGA 'Members Days' (though in practice open to the public) - in a village hall somewhere, all layouts brought by Society members (mostly in the local 'Area Group') who don't charge expenses, costs underwritten by the 009 Society/7mm NGA. Whilst those Societies clearly wouldn't be able to make a loss on shows indefinitely, I understand the 009 Society is in a fairly good position financially, and with over a thousand members, even a complete loss on a couple of shows could be recouped easily with a modest increase in subs. So I can see that sort of event restarting fairly early on even if on an experimental basis.

 

Traders vary. Some traders run their businesses very much as a side line to their day job, so apart from money tied up in stock (some of which they are probably selling on eBay), they're not losing money by a temporary suspension of trade. These are usually also the sort of traders who go along as much for the social side as to make money.

 

At the other end of the scale, you have Hattons, Rails, Kernow etc who already probably do far more trade online than via shows. For them, they go to shows to meet their customers, to support the hobby, and to announce (and allow people to view) their limited edition models.

 

In between, there are the 'cottage industry' type businesses who make kits and other equipment. For them, the shows are an important way of getting their name out there, show people what they do, and allow people to discover their products.

 

How many of us have bought items from shows that we wouldn't have looked up online, because we didn't even know they existed?

 

 

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1 minute ago, woodenhead said:

Only this week the bbc quoted the statistic 19 out of 20 people recover without hospital intervention.

 

The link for this is further back in the thread.

 

That's a dubious statistic because if you don't get medical treatment, you didn't get counted, so it makes the figure no more than an estimate. That is less true now testing is more widely available but there are some who develop no symptoms at all.

We may have more accurate figures if anyone with symptoms was asked to register, but this was not the case. I feel this was a missed opportunity.

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13 minutes ago, Pete the Elaner said:

 

That's a dubious statistic because if you don't get medical treatment, you didn't get counted, so it makes the figure no more than an estimate. That is less true now testing is more widely available but there are some who develop no symptoms at all.

We may have more accurate figures if anyone with symptoms was asked to register, but this was not the case. I feel this was a missed opportunity.

 

I lost my sense of taste for a couple of days in late March. At that time the medics were dismissing these symptoms, saying that you could lose sense of taste through cold or flu. I didn't have a cold or flu. Now, of course, loss of taste is a recognised symptom of covid19. Did I catch it? Until an antibody test is available to me, I won't know.

 

Graham

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Thank you, Marc, for your open and honest post.

 

1 hour ago, Furness Wagon said:

The largest one in August hasn't because the venue is waiting for the government to say something.....

 

A decision about cancelling the show was supposed to be made 3 weeks ago then it was 2 weeks ago then it was last week, then it was yesterday and now it's next week. 

 

Surely, this is just irresponsible?  I assume the delay in cancellation is to try and limit liability for cancellation, or just to hope that the government will say COVID has gone away and it's all right to have an exhibition.  We have just dropped to COVID-3 alert level, I see, but that still means there is a pandemic about, and some measures are needed.  Doesn't such prevarication just push the risk of loss onto the traders, and the risk to life and limb on to the exhibitors?

 

Whatever the months ahead bring, and we hope that will include an effective treatment and perhaps a vaccine, it is prudent just to write 2020 off, as most people have, and regroup for 2021?

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5 minutes ago, dagrizz said:

I lost my sense of taste for a couple of days in late March. At that time the medics were dismissing these symptoms, saying that you could lose sense of taste through cold or flu. I didn't have a cold or flu. Now, of course, loss of taste is a recognised symptom of covid19. Did I catch it? Until an antibody test is available to me, I won't know.

 

Graham

 

For railway modellers, the symptom of loss of taste shows itself as a sudden urge to model Kazakhstan Railways in Gauge 3 - or perhaps even the GWR.  (Hat, coat, rapid exit stage left and right.)

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6 hours ago, Wheres_Wally said:

Until there is a vaccine is developed, etc etc etc /// 

 

No trade=no show. At least no show of any sice unless people are willing to pay a lot more for admission. Can't see many on here doing that, there's enough moaning about price now!

 

 

 

Cheers for that worst case scenario, really helpful:rolleyes:

 

Your last para suggests to me that you don't actually have much insight into how the beans stack up at a show, or how they can be made to;  how a lot of traders operate, or why folk want to put shows on in the first place.

 

Now, can we for the sake of Pete, please start being realistic as to what's likely to happen from now up to the point, and after,. they get a handle on the lurgy, ie,

  

Model railways Shows are sadly, but understandably, off at the moment, but will  almost certainly return, in some form, at some point in the future, at a time hopefully not too far off, yet to be determined

 

The debate to why's and wherfore's has by now, IMO, been fully played out, I think all angles have been explored,and much of the debate has been useful and informative. however, until the announcement re the lifting of restrictions on mass gatherings, together with exactly what caveats re social distancing etc would be required; any further ruminations, especially those of the We're all doomed type, would seem to me to be no more than idle & utterly useless chaff.

 

ThIs thread was set up to inform folk of what's going on, or not as the case may be.

 

As an Exhibitor, and organiser, could I ask, as someone has already done, that the thread return to it's initial brief.

 

Thankyou

K

Edited by andania 213
missed a bit- aaghh!!!
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27 minutes ago, Pete the Elaner said:

 

That's a dubious statistic because if you don't get medical treatment, you didn't get counted, so it makes the figure no more than an estimate. That is less true now testing is more widely available but there are some who develop no symptoms at all.

We may have more accurate figures if anyone with symptoms was asked to register, but this was not the case. I feel this was a missed opportunity.

Dubious?  What it is saying is that most people don't need treatment when they get it, it's good news.  The more people it exludes i.e. those that haven't sort treatment then the lower the true rate of serious complicatons is.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53061281

 

I agree abandoning testing early on was a mistake and I don't know whether that was a calculated politcal decision to better manage lockdown through fear or simply logistics and economics.

 

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OW2020cancelled.jpg.7c9c8a4a8512007575381ce425744618.jpg

 

It is with a heavy heart that we have inevitably had to cancel our 2020 Model Railway Open Weekend in September, due to the ongoing COVID19 pandemic. We cannot predict what restrictions will still be in place at that time and we want it to be absolutely safe for visitors and staff to be on site over the weekend before any event takes place.

As we are now welcoming shoppers back to our physical store in West Sussex and restrictions are being eased, we hope that we will be able to hold events in one form or another in the future, and an Open Weekend in September 2021. Keep an eye on our website and RIGHT LINES for details in the new year.

 

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4 minutes ago, woodenhead said:

Dubious?  What it is saying is that most people don't need treatment when they get it, it's good news.  The more people it exludes i.e. those that haven't sort treatment then the lower the true rate of serious complicatons is.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53061281

 

I agree abandoning testing early on was a mistake and I don't know whether that was a calculated politcal decision to better manage lockdown through fear or simply logistics and economics.

 

 

The 1 in 20 was based on poor data so was therefore a guess, but it since seems to have banded around as an accurate figure. That is why I consider it a dubious statistic.

 

I agree that many recover without treatment. Having suffered it myself (when tests were very limited) & recovered simply by locking myself away at home for 10 days until I felt better, I am fully aware that many thousands or even millions of others will have done the same.

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1 hour ago, stan williams said:

Just an up date,

The 009 Society have just on 2,000  members spread around the UK,  Europe, Down under and other

distant parts.

Members days are expected to pay their way, but there is a backup if things go wrong.

 

Stan.

 

1 hour ago, RJS1977 said:

There are different types of shows, and different types of traders.

 

Probably the smallest shows are the 009 Society/7mm NGA 'Members Days' (though in practice open to the public) - in a village hall somewhere, all layouts brought by Society members (mostly in the local 'Area Group') who don't charge expenses, costs underwritten by the 009 Society/7mm NGA. Whilst those Societies clearly wouldn't be able to make a loss on shows indefinitely, I understand the 009 Society is in a fairly good position financially, and with over a thousand members, even a complete loss on a couple of shows could be recouped easily with a modest increase in subs. So I can see that sort of event restarting fairly early on even if on an experimental basis.

 

Traders vary. Some traders run their businesses very much as a side line to their day job, so apart from money tied up in stock (some of which they are probably selling on eBay), they're not losing money by a temporary suspension of trade. These are usually also the sort of traders who go along as much for the social side as to make money.

 

At the other end of the scale, you have Hattons, Rails, Kernow etc who already probably do far more trade online than via shows. For them, they go to shows to meet their customers, to support the hobby, and to announce (and allow people to view) their limited edition models.

 

In between, there are the 'cottage industry' type businesses who make kits and other equipment. For them, the shows are an important way of getting their name out there, show people what they do, and allow people to discover their products.

 

How many of us have bought items from shows that we wouldn't have looked up online, because we didn't even know they existed?

 

 

 

Off the cuff:

 

Suppose by November indoor gatherings of not more than 50 are permissible, under some conditions (say wear facemasks, hand sanitiser, contactless payment etc. No catering.)

 

Imagine such a Narrow Gauge "Member's Day" - 15 exhibitors/organisers/traders involved. 35 tickets can be booked for a morning slot (10-1) or an afternoon slot (1:45-4:45)

 

That's a gate of 70, with 3 hours to look round, which should be adequate. It should cover its costs 

 

I'm not sure how well that would work, but I could imagine a limited number of such events, with 6-7 layouts, 2-3 traders might be possible in the 6 weeks before Christmas.

 

You might charge £2.50 - £3. No arguments about "Nah, I'll go to Warley - far more to see there" - because Warley won't be happening.....

 

It might be possible to stage some small informal events like this some months before big shows are able to resume

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I would expect that the Government will want to cave into the demands of the popular press and ensure (rightly or wrongly) that everything is back up and running with no social distancing etc in time for Christmas (they have already pandered to the tabloids by allowing pointless and totally unncessary things like football and McDonalds) so shows from the start of next year should be all right.

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29 minutes ago, John M Upton said:

I would expect that the Government will want to cave into the demands of the popular press and ensure (rightly or wrongly) that everything is back up and running with no social distancing etc in time for Christmas (they have already pandered to the tabloids by allowing pointless and totally unncessary things like football and McDonalds) so shows from the start of next year should be all right.

Under that scenario, what's permitted and what's "all right" will be two entirely different things.

 

It must also be said that football has resumed without spectators, which wouldn't really work for model railway shows as their media coverage is somewhat less than the Premier League get.

 

John

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