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2 hours ago, twiggy1969 said:

might also kill a large number as well

 

I thought about this a bit more during my legally permitted hour of outdoor exercise in the sun. (Very nice too)

 

Nothing is perfectly safe. 

 

Look up how many lives we'd save and serious injuries we'd prevent if we stopped all road transport in the UK. But few of us would be prepared to put up with the consequences.

 

The government's goal here is not to prevent anyone (including themselves) from getting COVID-19. The aim is to keep the rate of increase low enough that the NHS can cope, and ultimately (somehow) to reduce the number of infections to a very low level.

 

The key here is the number of other people that one infected person infects - the latest number I've seen is that it's about 3. This needs to come down, and until it's below 1 (or there is a vaccine) this disease isn't going to go away. If the measures taken (close schools and most shops, we all stay home when we can and keep apart when we can't etc.) keep that number low enough, then the added risk from what commerce still takes places is actually small. (If it's below 1, doing things to reduce it further have limited impact).

 

Now on an individual basis, those who are still going out to work are at a greater risk than those who don't, and as someone who can happily work from home I'm not going to say that anyone else should go out and risk themselves so I can order some more track pins. BUT - from an overall point of view, if the modelling is correct and policy is being based on it, then the impact of keeping permitted businesses open on the spread of the coronavirus in the UK will presumably be small.

 

And you can be pretty sure that the government is monitoring as best they can, and if numbers rise much faster than expected the next step will almost certainly to be to shut down non-essential businesses. (And if that doensn't work, then we are in trouble. But we know from China that it can be done).

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14 minutes ago, richarddavies said:

Really interesting to see the different views on here

 

The proposal for a unilateral approach was Inspired by the new way that traditional rival supermarkets are operating in the UK i.e. sharing resources, making joint decisions and ensuring they can function in a way that best protects their teams and customers needs.

 

I believed there was an opportunity for our industry to do likewise. I knew there would be three types of response from our competitors to my proposal - Yes, No & "This is a good idea, but..." so I am not surprised at the wide range of responses on here and I welcome them all, because this is a huge learning period for retail as a whole

 

I felt it was better to do something, rather than sit and wait, and the calls I've instigated with others from the industry have been groundbreaking and actually quite enjoyable. I'm glad I tried,

 

We suggested suspending shipping because:

  1. Government is covering the vast majority of wage & self-employed costs
  2. It keeps our teams safer
  3. We felt customers would understand our motivations were honest
  4. Stopping using couriers reduces the possibility of them transmitting the virus
  5. I wanted us to be an example to other industries - doing what we can for the situation 

 

This is a testing time for all of us

 

Best wishes

 

Richard

Managing Director, Hatton's

 

I'm sure I'm not the only one here who appreciates it and finds it quite refreshing that you've come on here and told us that, rather than just letting us all speculate in ignorance.

 

Thanks.

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19 hours ago, jools1959 said:

 

 The more people stay indoors, the quicker this virus can be beaten.

 

 

Sorry - but that is a falsehood.

 

A virus like Covid 19 cannot be 'beaten' any more than the flu virus or common cold can.

 

The lockdown is for one purpose, and one purpose only - namely to buy time for the NHS.

 

It is NOT designed to (nor can it ever) eradicate Covid-19 from circulation.

 

Ultimately what has to happen in the long term is either everybody catches it (and thus primes their immune system to fight it off the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, etc time they are exposed to Covid-19 - or science develops a vaccine which can be used to inoculate the population and achieve the same result.

 

Unfortunately, much like the flu virus, Covid-19 mutates very easily, so any Vaccine is unlikely to be the magical miracle cure many seem to think it is. Thus, as nasty as it sounds, I think folk need to get used to the idea that this virus will be regularly killing off folk with medical issues for decades to come - just as regular flu does every winter. The key is to minimise these numbers by the NHS having enough staff and hospital space to try and prevent that happening, as its clear that a significant number of those suffering badly from Covid 19 can recover given time and the right medical support.

 

At present its simply a case that if we adopted the 'life as normal' approach then the NHS wouldn't cope - but once the bulk of the population are immune / able to fight off the virus at home then Covid-19 ceases to be a problem and can joins the ranks of all the other viruses humans have lived with for centuries.

Edited by phil-b259
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1 hour ago, richarddavies said:

Really interesting to see the different views on here

 

The proposal for a unilateral approach was Inspired by the new way that traditional rival supermarkets are operating in the UK i.e. sharing resources, making joint decisions and ensuring they can function in a way that best protects their teams and customers needs.

 

I believed there was an opportunity for our industry to do likewise. I knew there would be three types of response from our competitors to my proposal - Yes, No & "This is a good idea, but..." so I am not surprised at the wide range of responses on here and I welcome them all, because this is a huge learning period for retail as a whole

 

I felt it was better to do something, rather than sit and wait, and the calls I've instigated with others from the industry have been groundbreaking and actually quite enjoyable. I'm glad I tried,

 

We suggested suspending shipping because:

  1. Government is covering the vast majority of wage & self-employed costs
  2. It keeps our teams safer
  3. We felt customers would understand our motivations were honest
  4. Stopping using couriers reduces the possibility of them transmitting the virus
  5. I wanted us to be an example to other industries - doing what we can for the situation 

 

This is a testing time for all of us

 

Best wishes

 

Richard

Managing Director, Hatton's

 

Rather than go for an 'all or nothing' approach why not try a compromise?

 

As I said earlier if retailers wish to minimise the risks to staff (a laudable aim I should add) then how about saying "We will only pack and ship orders once every 2 / 3 weeks. That should generate a significant reduction in staff contact, while at the same time reducing the chances of those stuck indoors for 12 weeks from not being able to obtain things they need to stay occupied.

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12 minutes ago, phil-b259 said:

 

Unfortunately, much like the flu virus, Covid-19 mutates very easily, so any Vaccine is unlikely to be the magical miracle cure many seem to think it is. Thus, as nasty as it sounds, I think folk need to get used to the idea that this virus will be regularly killing off folk with medical issues for decades to come - just as regular flu does every winter. The key is to minimise these numbers by the NHS having enough staff and hospital space to try and prevent that happening, as its clear that a significant of those suffering badly from Covid 19 can recover given time and the right medical support.

 

At present its simply a case that if we adopted the 'life as normal' approach then the NHS wouldn't cope - but once the bulk of the population are immune / able to fight off the virus at home then Covid-19 ceases to be a problem and can joins the ranks of all the other viruses humans have lived with for centuries.

 

A lot of scientists seem to believe that a vaccine is a realistic proposition, given time.

 

What is your evidence that it won't be?

 

I didn't think that it was expected to keep mutating in such a way as to negate a vaccine.

 

(And if the bulk of the population can get immunity by catching it as you suggest, doesn't that imply that a vaccine might work after all?)

 

As for "beating it" - so far in China they seem to have done very well. Time will tell whether they can go back to normal life without it flaring up again, but I think it's too early to say that they can't. Most cases - they say - are now imported ones. Yes this is highly contagious, but if what pockets of infection remaining after the lockdown can be caught quickly enough, maybe the whole population doesn't have to get it. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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40 minutes ago, Coryton said:

 

A lot of scientists seem to believe that a vaccine is a realistic proposition, given time.

 

What is your evidence that it won't be?

 

I didn't think that it was expected to keep mutating in such a way as to negate a vaccine.

 

(And if the bulk of the population can get immunity by catching it as you suggest, doesn't that imply that a vaccine might work after all?)

 

As for "beating it" - so far in China they seem to have done very well. Time will tell whether they can go back to normal life without it flaring up again, but I think it's too early to say that they can't. Most cases - they say - are now imported ones. Yes this is highly contagious, but if what pockets of infection remaining after the lockdown can be caught quickly enough, maybe the whole population doesn't have to get it. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I never said that a Vaccine wouldn't be developed - what I do question is its effectiveness.

 

I remind you that flu vaccines have been around for many years now - yet we still see many die each winter even though they have been vaccinated because the Flu virus loves to mutate and what is doing the rounds one winter is quite different from what was so deadly the previous year.

 

When developing the Flu vaccine scientist thus have to make an educated guess as to what direction the mutations will take each summer so they can produce a suitable Vaccine for the upcoming winter. Sometimes they get it right - but equally they have also been proven to have got it wrong.

 

This is relevant because although I accept Covid-19 is not the same as the Influenza Virus, they DO have a shared parent if you go back up the virus family tree  far enough, plus the way the body reacts to each has some significant similarities.

 

Scientists have now PROVED Covid-19 mutates with ease  - so as with flu just because a Vaccine has been developed, it does not follow with any certainty that it will be effective worldwide or year after year.

 

Humans like to think they are the 'master race' and can control everything on their terms - history shows otherwise.

 

On the subject of immunity - I rarely does a vaccine provide total immunity from catching a disease. What it can do however is, how shall I say, prime the immune system with the general types of cells it needs to be on the lookout for and thus enable the rapid deployment of antibodies. Think of it like a Police description of a suspect where they only know some of the criminals details. Passing around said details means should Police on patrol spot the culprit, they can mobilise quickly to take quick action.

 

 

On your final point, China has not 'beaten' Covid-19 in the sense you are saying. Yes though strict isolation measures etc. it has managed to turn the tide in terms of new infections and the number of deaths is falling, but that is manifestly NOT the same as eradicating the virus itself. The Covid-19 virus is still present in China and there are serious concerns that as the lockdowns are gradually lifted, infection rates will rise again. The difference is when that happens, a combination of a better immune system response by those who have been previously infected, better hygiene / social behaviours and a better equipped (both physically and in the knowledge states) will enable the authorities to cope.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by phil-b259
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3 hours ago, Coryton said:

 

It seems the Post Office is happy to continue to carry non-essential items.

 

Their staff, perhaps less so: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/mar/25/uk-postal-workers-plea-for-limit-to-non-essential-deliveries-royal-mail-coronavirus

 

A quote from that article (The CWU is the Union for postal workers)

 

“The public has to be thinking about needs and wants,” said the CWU. “Some people are just clearly at home bored buying all sorts of rubbish.”

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Covid-19 or as it is more correctly termed SARS COV-2 is just one of a family of viruses that have existed in nature for more likely thousands of years.  Like other living organisms they mutate as species develop immunity to them.  A vaccine will offer a degree of immunity to the current strain but what of the future.  Flu epidemics ravage the population every year.  Scientists predict the most prevalent strains that will invade the specific northern or southern hemisphere and develop and release a vaccine for those specific strains,  giving some degree of immunity.  When a strain not predicted occurs then the available vaccines are basically useless.  Not all virus outbreaks become pandemics or we would have been erased from the planet a long time ago.

 

Bats are a major source of very virulent strains of virus.  The current pandemic is believed to have had its source in an illegal "wet" market that sold bats for human consumption.  The eating of bats is not peculiar to just Asia but also in Pacific region countries.  In Australia there is a species of bats who support a virulent virus that is deadly to humans and domestic animals like dogs.  The bat virus infects horses who exhibit signs much like we do when struck down with the flu.  The horses graze under shade trees in which bat droppings have fallen.  Usually the horse dies.  Unfortunately,  the veterinarian called to treat the horse will contract the virus and the result is usually fatal.

 

The current pandemic will not miraculously disappear but will need vigilance to prevent the spread.  It has existed amongst us in nature but rarely has it evolved and crossed over to a human,  but when it does then those with deficient immune systems or respiratory ailments are less capable of being able to fight off its effect on their bodies.  A "typical"  flu season will kill off thousands of victims each year , even though every year new vaccines are prepared and distributed in anticipation of their arrival.  Countries order these vaccines months prior the advent of the typical flu season.  All viruses evolve as only by mutating are they able to survive in their host bodies.  A vaccine will be important in controlling this virus but it will not be the magic bullet that will ensure our immunity.  Like the Spanish flu virus we need to accept that viruses capable of causing pandemics live amongst us and will continue to do so.  Most likely due ignorance the 1918/1919 pandemic was allowed to propagate across the entire world within just a few months and that was before the advent of international air travel.  China initially denied its existence but then took somewhat draconic measures to control the virus including locking people in their homes and the wearing of personal monitoring devices to ensure people remained in lockdown.  Even in Australia now our states police forces are empowered to legally force people to remain in isolation and if they refuse then fine and possibly detain and imprison them.  Most states have closed their borders to cross travel and those who choose to cross a border must self isolate for two weeks minimum in an attempt to contain any spread of the virus.  Most cases in Australia have been from those who have returned from overseas but like most countries once the borders are shutdown then community spread becomes the problem.

 

Whether we are ultimately infected or not we are all asked to share the burden and take all steps necessary to limit the spread.  Even so,  many experts predict a sizeable proportion of the population will be infected with some estimating up to 80% of the population.  Most will suffer minor flu like symptoms, some will not even be aware that they are infected and unfortunately,  like with any other flu that arises every season,  there will be those immune deficient and those with respiratory ailments who will fall victim.  Sacrifices will need to be made for the good or all,  not just ourselves.

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3 hours ago, Coryton said:

 

It seems the Post Office is happy to continue to carry non-essential items.

 

Their staff, perhaps less so: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/mar/25/uk-postal-workers-plea-for-limit-to-non-essential-deliveries-royal-mail-coronavirus

 

I wouldn't believe a word of that.

 

When it says "A spokesperson for CWU" then you know it's rubbish. Why aren't they using named sources? 

 

I'm an ex postie and talking to people who still work for RM, my brother included, most are rubbing their hands with glee at the prospect of all the extra overtime.  Twelve hour night shifts? Happy days. Especially since all the pubs are closed and there is no sport happening for the foreseeable future. Christmas has come early.

 

 

 

Jason

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Latest Update

 

Quote

 

The majority of the Hattons team are now working from home. We are operating a smaller despatch team, adhering to the latest government guidance on social distancing with altered shift patterns to minimise risks related to Coronavirus.

 

All orders are currently being despatched but we have now suspended our 'Next Day' service option. We currently have no plans to suspend our despatch operations.

We will continue to monitor the situation and update our customers as soon as possible if anything changes. We greatly appreciate your business, support and understanding during this difficult time.

 

 

 

 

 

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