Covid-19 - The silver lining (Positives!)

[Dava]

There's  going to be a massive reset for many economies and societies. Providing food and basic essential services will be priority. Many high-end non-essential services won't do well, BA/IAG and highly leveraged pub & restaurant chains as examples. Many small firms running out of cash. A huge impact on jobs and sadly this year's school, college and Uni leavers will find it very hard to get started in employment.

 

English people don't appear to want to go fruit & veg picking. Wonder why....?

[Reorte]

54 minutes ago, Dava said:

English people don't appear to want to go fruit & veg picking. Wonder why....?

 

AFAICT because they won't accept the depressingly poor conditions.

[jjb1970]

15 hours ago, The Johnster said:

I've never been in any doubt about Tim Martin.  A waste of planetary resources, shouldn't be given the oxygen of oxygen never mind publicity.  Elon Musk has been thoroughly exposed as what he always was as well; amazing the people you come across when you've left your baseball bat at home, isn't it?

 

Elon Musk has always been a strange mix of genius and nut case, but he probably did more than any other single individual to popularize zero emissions vehicles (and it does seem like air pollution increases respiratory illnesses which in turn increases the risk of the corona virus). While I hate many of the stupid things he says I also admire his achievements and what he has done for zero emissions vehicles. 

[big jim]

My brother in law works for him at space X, my sister met him during a family day at the office, she said the office was weird, People sat on bouncy balls instead of chairs, ping pong tables in the office space etc! 
 

that whole millennial douche bag beard vibe 

[runs as required]

2 hours ago, Reorte said:

 

AFAICT because they won't accept the depressingly poor conditions.

Although until perhaps 30 years ago my dad’s area of Kent got an annual exodus from London  of fruit and hop pickers transported originally by the SE&CR.                                                                                                                                                                       What changed?   Was it cheap flights to Ibiza?

Edited May 1, 2020 by runs as required

[big jim]

My brother in law works for Elon musk out in LA, my sister met him during a family day at the office, she said the office was weird, People sat on bouncy balls instead of chairs, ping pong tables in the office space etc! 
 

[The Johnster]

Smoke and mirrors.  Oo, look, an office with bouncy chairs, table tennis; the guy that dreamed all this up must be a pretty revolutionary thinker, so

that must mean there is no aspect of his character that might suggest he is a self regarding, self interested (my factory must reopen to make me my money and sod the workers and everybody they infect, the virus doesn’t exist because nothing is allowed to exist that inconveniences meeeee), acquisitive, uncaring, arrogant... well, you get the idea. It’s an extension of the idea that Beardy Branson, the self made business genius with long hair and jeans who started by selling bootleg knock off records to his posh chums at his public school, and far from being self made was left a fortune by a relative, is actually a decent bloke.  He has got lovely teeth, mind...

 

I could have told you what was going to happen when they put a pr*ck under a balloon. 
 

These sort of mega-rich men of the people did not become what they are now by being what they were then; they are obsessively self interested, completely ruthless, and would happily sacrifice you, your loved ones, and the planet for a quick buck.  At least you knew where you stood with

Richard  Crawshay, or Henry Ford, or J P Morgan. 

[sir douglas]

i currently dont have to put up with the rugby crowds and traffic because there isnt any matches (i live close to a rugby ground

[TT-Pete]

Yaaaaaaaaayyy!!!!

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-52528149

[Metr0Land]

Funnily enough I was gonna post that about Love Island then thought it might be a negative as I believe some on here are outnumbered in their households and use it as the perfect excuse to go and do some modelling. 

[monkeysarefun]

Every morning google tells me how long the drive to work will be. For the last couple of years its always been 51 or 52 minutes, a few times 49 minutes but never less. Since the lockdown its now always 46 or 47 minutes, rarely more than 50.

[SHMD]

I've got my commute down from between 1 to 1.5 hours, each way, down  to approximately 15 seconds each way!

 

 

Kev.

 

[monkeysarefun]

2 hours ago, SHMD said:

I've got my commute down from between 1 to 1.5 hours, each way, down  to approximately 15 seconds each way!

 

 

Kev.

 

  A co-workers kid is having a test  today because she has a sore throat, so mine might soon  be equally short!  (be rather unlikely and pretty bad luck if it is the virus given we only have about 2 - 10 new cases in the whole state each day.)

Edited May 4, 2020 by monkeysarefun

[big jim]

5 hours ago, monkeysarefun said:

Every morning google tells me how long the drive to work will be. For the last couple of years its always been 51 or 52 minutes, a few times 49 minutes but never less. Since the lockdown its now always 46 or 47 minutes, rarely more than 50.

my trip to work along the M6 in both the morning or evening peak has reduced by a good 20 minutes at the moment, with another 10 mins off that again in the morning for not going via maccy Ds for a breakfast! 
 

 

[TheQ]

On 30/04/2020 at 03:45, The Johnster said:

Housing investors are losing out and rents are going down; sounds like a positive to me!

Whereas I agree when it's investors buying up homes to run as businesses, and also  many second homers round here,  often rent out their homes for holidays as well.

 

There are those that temporarily have to rent out their home while they have a short term contract elsewhere . For them this can be a disaster.. 

[TheQ]

4 hours ago, big jim said:

my trip to work along the M6 in both the morning or evening peak has reduced by a good 20 minutes at the moment, with another 10 mins off that again in the morning for not going via maccy Ds for a breakfast! 
 

 

So you're losing weight as well!! 

[Fenman]

On 01/05/2020 at 17:46, Dava said:

...
Many high-end non-essential services won't do well, BA/IAG ... as examples.

...

BA is one of the business world’s great survivors. Who knew the depressing nationalised corporation of the 1970s would reinvent itself as the world’s favourite airline; before reinventing itself as a credible competitor against the new low-cost airlines; before reinventing itself as part of a pan-European group based in Madrid — all the while making shedloads of cash by ruthlessly exploiting its stranglehold over scarce Heathrow slots.

 

In any event, while a lot of its business is leisure, much of it is not: cargo pretty much *is* an essential service (and will remain so unless the world’s economy *very* radically reorganises).

 

Long before Covid19, my organisation conducted >90% of international meetings by Zoom and GoToMeeting. But the remaining foreign travel enabled some essential (to us) things to happen which just cannot be done via computer screens. That business travel is still necessary.

 

BA has always been clever at getting that market (from the staggeringly innovative Club World, now copied (and bettered) by pretty much every serious airline), to the fact that it runs 1st class on more routes than any other airline I can think of). 
 

So far, we’ve seen BA close its entire Gatwick operation (that’s mostly leisure traffic, of course), consolidating all London traffic into a single terminal at Heathrow; it’s announced about a third of its staff will be made redundant (which will likely be brutal for very many of them. The longest-serving cabin crew, on the best T&Cs, are likely to be hit worst); and unlike pretty much every other world airline it’s said it doesn’t want a tax-payer subsidy. 
 

I suspect BA is likely to remain a survivor. 
 

Paul

[Gibbo675]

Hi Folks,

 

At the rate things are going, should you measure your wealth in troy ounces rather than bricks and mortar you may well end up with a very shiny silver lining that also has quite an aura about it.

 

Gibbo.

[The Johnster]

On 04/05/2020 at 13:02, TT-Pete said:

Yaaaaaaaaayyy!!!!

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-52528149

Boooooooooooo!!!  It's coming back next year...

 

It's a good concept, though.  You take a bunch of completely vacuous, self absorbed, but attractive and randy morons, equal numbers of both sexes, make them wear as few clothes as possible, and maroon them on an island with a supply of make up and grooming products.  It all goes wrong when you also supply them with food, fresh water, and shelter...

[The Johnster]

7 hours ago, Fenman said:

I suspect BA is likely to remain a survivor.

So do I, but it will look and feel like a survivor, and it could be many years before it is prosperous again.  The civil aviation industry is not a thing I'd want shares in just now, and is likely to be savagely cut everywhere.  I predict that regional airports will probably close as well, and Gatwick/Stanstead may well disappear in order to justify LHR's third runway.  My own local airport, Cardiff Wales International (Rhoose) is on very shaky ground, and I would imagine so are the likes of Liverpool, Newquay, or Southampton.  These are all overshadowed by larger hubs nearby.  Newquay may cease to exist with passenger using Exeter.  The big Scottish airports may well survive because of the necessity of providing links to the Western and Northern Isles and the North Sea platforms, but they'll need subsidising...

 

We might even see a resurgence of long haul rail travel in the US.  The problem is not just that the demand for air travel will fall, but the requirement for social distancing which will continue long after the pandemic is under control will make seating arrangements unfeasible on aircraft with closed cabin air circulatory systems even where demand holds.

 

By the same argument, HS2 is dead in the water.  

 

Sorry, the thread's supposed to be about positives...

Edited May 5, 2020 by The Johnster

[Ron Ron Ron]

51 minutes ago, The Johnster said:

.......Sorry, the thread's supposed to be about positives...

 

Indeed it is.

Bad news and negative effects of the pandemic, require their own thread.

 

 

.

[Fenman]

3 hours ago, The Johnster said:

...
I predict that regional airports will probably close as well, and Gatwick/Stanstead may well disappear in order to justify LHR's third runway.  My own local airport, Cardiff Wales International (Rhoose) is on very shaky ground, and I would imagine so are the likes of Liverpool, Newquay, or Southampton.  These are all overshadowed by larger hubs nearby.  Newquay may cease to exist with passenger using Exeter.  The big Scottish airports may well survive because of the necessity of providing links to the Western and Northern Isles and the North Sea platforms, but they'll need subsidising...

...

I think it will be a different picture to that. Gatwick and Stansted will both survive (LGW is having a torrid time with BA and VS both closing their operations there, but STN is in a much happier situation). As all three have different owners, why would any of them close to help Heathrow?

 

But Heathrow won’t get its 3rd runway. It’ll be sacrificed to “prove” the government’s green credentials. (And for the same reason I’d assume HS2 will go ahead.)

 

Of the regional airports you mentioned I’d have thought Southampton would be fine — the Channel Islands will still need airlines and that’s most of its business. I’m less sure about the others. 
 

My own local, Norwich, is also likely to survive: already low-cost, it has a lot of essential helicopter traffic to North Sea gas platforms, as well as mostly business traffic to Schipol. 
 

It’ll be a mixed picture after, with winners as well as losers. Although who knows when “after” will be or all the consequences? I’m optimistic something better can come out of this if we want it to. 
 

Paul

[The Johnster]

Cardiff (Wales) is likely to close; it was struggling before the outbreak.  It does a good trade in package holidays, but the future of these is a bit wobbly now.  I reckon an airport that has to point out that it's 'international' is probably over-egging itself anyway.  It is on the wrong side of Cardiff and access is not brilliant.  It is similar in this respect to Lulsgate, which you may know as Bristol, but Lulsgate has managed to become an ever expanding success over the last 50 years or so. Rhoose is far too dependent on the political idea that Wales, to be taken seriously on the international scene, must have an airport as well as a rugby team.  Well, for the populations of Cardiff and most of the Valleys, Lulsgate is not significantly more inaccessible than Rhoose, and for Swansea and the West is about 50 minutes further away.  The rest of Wales uses Birmingham or Manchester.  It is not much more trouble to get to Heathrow or Gatwick from the botttom right hand corner of Wales than it is to Rhoose or Lulsgate, so long as the traffic on the M25 isn't too bad.

 

The sensible thing, which won't happen because on both sides of the Bristol Channel there are too many political and commercial vested interests, with the WAG supporting Rhoose and the Merchant Venturers Lulsgate, is for both to close and operations to be concentrated on a new passenger terminal at Filton.  The runway here was built for the Brabazon project and can take any commercial aircraft fully laden in any conditions, and most parts of the UK south of the Pennines can be easily accessed by main line rail and motorway connections.

[Ron Ron Ron]

4 hours ago, Fenman said:

.....LGW is having a torrid time with BA and VS both closing their operations there.......

 

Not forgetting one of Gatwick's largest operators, Norwegian, who are also currently grounded, with parts of the business under bankruptcy protection.

In addition to a large number of European destinations, due to the airlines rapid growth in recent years, Norwegian operated more long haul flights from Gatwick than Virgin.

 

 

4 hours ago, Fenman said:

......Of the regional airports you mentioned I’d have thought Southampton would be fine — the Channel Islands will still need airlines and that’s most of its business. I’m less sure about the others. .....

 

It's more than 20 years ago that Southampton ceased to be dependant on Channel Island flights.

British Airways created a growing domestic and near continental market from the mid 1990's before selling the regional airline division to Flybe.

Flybe were largely responsible for building on this and developing a large network of both domestic and near Continental services from the early 00's onwards.

Until Flybe's collapse and the onset of Covid-19, the busiest and most important destinations from Southampton airport were Manchester, Amsterdam, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Paris, Dublin and an array of French regional destinations, during the spring and summer months. Not to mention a fairly popular roster of ski season flights and a number of seasonal flights to Spain and Portugal.

The handful of CI flights were always there in the background and remained busy.

 

Most of that has gone for the time being, which does leave the Channel Islands flights (alongside some currently suspended domestic routes).

It's doubtful the airport could survive on these Channel island flights alone.

 

 

2 hours ago, The Johnster said:

....The sensible thing, which won't happen because on both sides of the Bristol Channel there are too many political and commercial vested interests, with the WAG supporting Rhoose and the Merchant Venturers Lulsgate, is for both to close and operations to be concentrated on a new passenger terminal at Filton.  The runway here was built for the Brabazon project and can take any commercial aircraft fully laden in any conditions, and most parts of the UK south of the Pennines can be easily accessed by main line rail and motorway connections.

 

Although Filton's runway was longer than either those at Cardiff and Bristol Lulsgate, it wasn't a particularly long one.

Note that back in the day, Concorde development and test flying was carried out at Fairford, due to Filton's runway length.

As for "...and can take any commercial aircraft fully laden in any conditions,". ...Sorry, no it couldn't.

 

Filton airfield is now closed* (apart from a helicopter base) and is hemmed in by retail and commercial redevelopment.

The site was rather too constrained, even before closure, to support commercial airport development, despite its very favourable location.

There's no chance of resurrecting the idea, now that the closed site is being hemmed in even more and destined to be covered with a few thousand houses.

 

(*note: closed over 7 years ago)

.

Edited May 5, 2020 by Ron Ron Ron

[NittenDormer]

Back to the positives... Golf courses are so much nicer to run around without golfers getting in the way.