Covid-19 - The silver lining (Positives!)

[Bernard Lamb]

This lock down is getting expensive.

I have had to order a large selection box from Hotel Chocolat just to get a sheet of black paper so that I can fold up some corridor connectors.

Bernard

[Ron Ron Ron]

2 hours ago, Bernard Lamb said:

.....I have had to order a large selection box from Hotel Chocolat just to get a sheet of black paper so that I can fold up some corridor connectors.

Clearly, they must be Pullman coaches....? 

[Nearholmer]

"Ambassador, with these crinkly gold and brown gangway connections with pointless little stick-on labels you are really spoiling us!"

[monkeysarefun]

One wierd positive that is taking shape here - The virus seems to be reducing the number of deaths in Australia.

 

So far even with the 90 odd deaths we've had from the virus added to the deaths from other causes, the total  is less than the number of deaths for the same period last year, seemingly due to reduced travel minimising car crashes, the lockdown keeping people inside rather then outside doing dangerous things and the social isolation decimating the usual seasonal flu death count.

 

In fact, according to the Guardian:

 

The Australian Bureau of Statistics will examine the impact of Covid-19 and social distancing measures on the overall death rate, amid suggestions fewer people than normal may have died during the lockdown period.

The president of the Australian Funeral Directors Association, Andrew Pinder, told Guardian Australia that “anecdotally, it appears the death rate may have slowed or at least plateaued”.

“Some funeral homes have stood down staff or reduced their hours during the Covid-19 period,” he said.

 

Possible reasons for a slowdown in deaths not caused by Covid-19 include a reduction in road fatalities due to the lockdown provisions and a substantial drop in the number of flu cases.

 

 

[Gibbo675]

7 hours ago, monkeysarefun said:

One wierd positive that is taking shape here - The virus seems to be reducing the number of deaths in Australia.

 

So far even with the 90 odd deaths we've had from the virus added to the deaths from other causes, the total  is less than the number of deaths for the same period last year, seemingly due to reduced travel minimising car crashes, the lockdown keeping people inside rather then outside doing dangerous things and the social isolation decimating the usual seasonal flu death count.

 

In fact, according to the Guardian:

 

The Australian Bureau of Statistics will examine the impact of Covid-19 and social distancing measures on the overall death rate, amid suggestions fewer people than normal may have died during the lockdown period.

The president of the Australian Funeral Directors Association, Andrew Pinder, told Guardian Australia that “anecdotally, it appears the death rate may have slowed or at least plateaued”.

“Some funeral homes have stood down staff or reduced their hours during the Covid-19 period,” he said.

 

Possible reasons for a slowdown in deaths not caused by Covid-19 include a reduction in road fatalities due to the lockdown provisions and a substantial drop in the number of flu cases.

 

 

Hi There,

 

My reading of the figures that you have provided, and I accept that they are indeed genuine, is that over the last three months 90 people have died of Covid-19. my questions are:

1. As less people have died in Australia during this major pandemic than usually die, can it therefore be assumed that Covid-19 is all that dangerous, surely in a major pandemic considerably more people would die than usually do ?
2. Of those that have died what percentage were very unwell to start with ?
3. Over the last two months three people every two days die of Covid-19, If you add in the average road deaths, heart disease, cancer etc. how do the figures compare ?
4. Should the above questions be sensibly answered, is it really worth closing the entire economy for less than a couple of deaths a day in a population of millions ?

Gibbo.

[eastglosmog]

8 hours ago, monkeysarefun said:

One wierd positive that is taking shape here - The virus seems to be reducing the number of deaths in Australia.

 

So far even with the 90 odd deaths we've had from the virus added to the deaths from other causes, the total  is less than the number of deaths for the same period last year, seemingly due to reduced travel minimising car crashes, the lockdown keeping people inside rather then outside doing dangerous things and the social isolation decimating the usual seasonal flu death count.

 

In fact, according to the Guardian:

 

The Australian Bureau of Statistics will examine the impact of Covid-19 and social distancing measures on the overall death rate, amid suggestions fewer people than normal may have died during the lockdown period.

The president of the Australian Funeral Directors Association, Andrew Pinder, told Guardian Australia that “anecdotally, it appears the death rate may have slowed or at least plateaued”.

“Some funeral homes have stood down staff or reduced their hours during the Covid-19 period,” he said.

 

Possible reasons for a slowdown in deaths not caused by Covid-19 include a reduction in road fatalities due to the lockdown provisions and a substantial drop in the number of flu cases.

 

 

Sadly not the case in the UK, where the figures for deaths in April are (according to The Times this morning) about twice what they normally would be.

[Reorte]

I don't like having to work from home but I've just discovered one advantage - that small patch of whiskers missed when shaving that you don't discover until later and then nags all day - now I've just been straight to the razor to remove it.

[Nearholmer]

6 hours ago, Gibbo675 said:

Should the above questions be sensibly answered, is it really worth closing the entire economy for less than a couple of deaths a day in a population of millions ?

 

Very possibly yes, because your assumption of "less than a couple of deaths a day in a population of  millions" is almost certainly wrong.

 

If the economy hadn't closed, you'd presumably be looking at all the usual 'ordinary' deaths, plus whatever the  net sum of COVID running loose alongside seasonal 'flu would amount to.

 

Given that most guesses/estimates seem to say that COVID has a fatality rate c1%, which gives c10 000 in a Million, that amounts to c55 per day in a Million if spread over six months. 'Flu typically hits about 1/10th of that, so subtract the c5 per day overlap, and you get c50 excess deaths per Million population per day. Covid would overlap with other normal causes too, so (wild guess) reduce that by 20% to c40 excess deaths per day per Million.

 

Even if the above is a very pessimistic estimate, and the true figure is half of that, c20 excess deaths per Million per day, that is still ten times your figure.

 

My instinct is that most administrations in prosperous countries would act to prevent/limit that sort of excess death rate, because they decide it is "worth it" to do so.

 

 

Edited May 7, 2020 by Nearholmer

[Bernard Lamb]

One benefit of the current situation.

It has put a stop to being pestered with requests about installing smart meters.

Bernard

[monkeysarefun]

13 hours ago, Gibbo675 said:

Hi There,

 

My reading of the figures that you have provided, and I accept that they are indeed genuine, is that over the last three months 90 people have died of Covid-19. my questions are:

1. As less people have died in Australia during this major pandemic than usually die, can it therefore be assumed that Covid-19 is all that dangerous, surely in a major pandemic considerably more people would die than usually do ?
2. Of those that have died what percentage were very unwell to start with ?
3. Over the last two months three people every two days die of Covid-19, If you add in the average road deaths, heart disease, cancer etc. how do the figures compare ?
4. Should the above questions be sensibly answered, is it really worth closing the entire economy for less than a couple of deaths a day in a population of millions ?

Gibbo.

1:  We've had just under 7000 cases and 97 deaths. This sounds miniscule compared to other countries but still works out as a death rate of 1.4 per hundred, still much higher than the flu so yes I'd say it is dangerous. 

 

2: Apart from a 49 year Filipino merchant  sailor who died on arrival at a port our youngest death was a 67 year old I think. The vast majority of deaths have been the elderly and a large proportion of them were passengers of the Ruby Princess or nursing home residents.

 

3. Sounds like a google job for you.

 

4. I spent 6 months in 1999 upgrading a sybase database which had a 6 character date field so that it wouldn't fall over when the year ticked over, as testing showed that it would. Then have had to read ongoing comments about how we wasted all that time and money 'fixing' the Y2K bug when nothing ended up happenning. 

At one point before our measures started having an effect our infection rate was 25% per day and forecast infections were  in the tens  of thousands and several hundred deaths by the start of May.  The reproduction rate is now down to under 1% thanks to the partial closure of the economy plus other measures (comprehenive and thorough testing, contact tracing, ending overseas arrivals other than residents, quarantining of returning residents etc etc) not despite it. Personally I can still do most things I've always done except travel overseas, go to the gym or the pub, get a tattoo, stand close to people in shops  or have a sitdown meal in a restaurant. Actually, I've never got a tattoo so strike that one off. )

 

Edited May 7, 2020 by monkeysarefun

[Neil]

This article in the Guardian gives a very positive message that CV19 can be tackled with success. By our standards you would think that the Indian state of Kerala would stand little chance when confronted by the pandemic. However the way they've achieved such low fatalities demonstrates that the quality of decision making, attention to detail and timely action are key in such situations.

[Gibbo675]

Hi Folks,

 

The thieves at HMRC have all of a sudden turned into Robin Hood and are going to send some of their ill gotten gains back to me. Better yet all I have had to do was to have a seven week home based holiday in the sunshine to get it.

 

In the best apocalypse ever, THE WORLD HAS GONE MAD !!!!!

 

Gibbo.

[Reorte]

45 minutes ago, Gibbo675 said:

Hi Folks,

 

The thieves at HMRC have all of a sudden turned into Robin Hood and are going to send some of their ill gotten gains back to me. Better yet all I have had to do was to have a seven week home based holiday in the sunshine to get it.

I had a surprise for them once. I was getting more and more convinced that something was up with my tax code (yes, I know it should be fairly straightforward to work out when you're just one salary on PAYE, but for some reason I never managed to wrap my head around it). I eventually rang them up and they mulled it over for a bit and said "We owe you £6000", which was a rather pleasant surprise, especially as I was buying a house at the time. It had been wrong for several years after a stint abroad with some living expenses paid as a taxable benefit (I was still being paid in the UK), and hadn't been properly corrected when I was back in the UK working as normal.

[Nearholmer]

My experience is that when you can get through to them on the ‘phone, they are polite, clear and helpful.

 

But, it is sometimes impossible to get through - possibly they only employ one person and one ‘phone for the whole country!

[Joseph_Pestell]

10 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

My experience is that when you can get through to them on the ‘phone, they are polite, clear and helpful.

 

But, it is sometimes impossible to get through - possibly they only employ one person and one ‘phone for the whole country!

Usually impossible to get through. If you do, it is to somebody who used to deal with this matter but has now moved on. They know who you need to speak to and put you through (several minutes of "music"). The second person is not the right one but they know who it is. Cue more music. The third person knows who it should be and passes you to......the first person that you spoke to.

This happened to me more than once and I know others in the drinks trade who have had the same. None of us will now phone the "helpline".

[EddieB]

15 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

My experience is that when you can get through to them on the ‘phone, they are polite, clear and helpful.

 

But, it is sometimes impossible to get through - possibly they only employ one person and one ‘phone for the whole country!

That's not far from the truth when it came to some of the complexities and stealth taxes introduced in the late 'nineties.  For instance, when the basis for calculating CGT changed, it soon became clear only a handful of Hectors/Hectrices understood their new system and you might wait a long time to speak to either of them!

 

[Reorte]

1 hour ago, Nearholmer said:

My experience is that when you can get through to them on the ‘phone, they are polite, clear and helpful.

 

But, it is sometimes impossible to get through - possibly they only employ one person and one ‘phone for the whole country!

In my limited experience with having to call them I very much found that. Takes ages to get through but once you have done it very much sounded like, unlike every other call centre in existence, they've employed people who know what they're talking about and aren't just reading from a script. I suppose they've decided the more helpful they are the easier it is to get people to pay their tax!

[Nearholmer]

You see, most call-centre functions can be reduced to following a flow-chart and a set of scripts, even NHS 111, but tax isn't like that.

 

It is so phenomenally complicated, more complicated even than differentiating between the symptoms of all known human diseases, or getting your broadband connection to work properly, that it has to be learned by heart from A Master. The junior tax official spends upwards of twenty years sitting cross-legged at the feet of a robed Senior Tax Inspector, who softly chants tax regulations, punctuating each clause by striking a small bronze bell, and only when the junior is able to recite the entire litany of regulations, while walking blindfolded and unharmed across a bed of burning coals, are they permitted to provide advice to the uninitiated.

 

That's why there are so few of them.

[Nick C]

It's quite simple. Tax systems are designed by accountants. If tax were easy to understand, you wouldn't need to employ accountants to do it for you. So they create systems specifically designed to keep themselves in employment...

[Bernard Lamb]

17 hours ago, Nearholmer said:

 

 

That's why there are so few of them.

As an exercise to relieve the boredom, try to find one who can accurately explain the situation in respect of a pension paid in another country and the money kept in that country rather than being brought back to the UK. I now know, but finding out was quite an adventure. 

Bernard

[big jim]

Couple of bits, firstly, what hope have we got with clowns like this......

 

 

then, for fans of the league of gentlemen Matt Lucas has done a duet with Pam Doove of his baked potato Song 

 

 

[Gibbo675]

Hi Folks,

 

I wonder if in the end this will be the silver lining ?

 

https://unnwo.org/

 

It talks of "Happytalism" which sounds good on principal.

 

Gibbo.

[jcredfer]

These gave me such a warm smile when I read them, perhaps I may be forgiven for sharing a few.  Some of many from a local communication site...

I’ve just been to Salisbury Cathedral with a friend going for her vaccine. What a wonderful sight - hundreds of elderly, mostly infirm, people heading across the close to the Cathedral for their first vaccine. There was almost a holiday feeling. And the organ was playing. Never seen so many wheelies, walking sticks, wheelchairs all in one place. Well done our local health providers and well done Salisbury Cathedral . I would be lying if I said it didn’t bring a tear to my eye.

That's sound lovely. It's a great setting and a wonderful use of a wonderful place. My neighbour went today and it was great. They even let the dog in!

I had my jab there yesterday (the Pfizer vaccine). It all ran like clockwork. There is ample parking at the Harnham Gate end of the Close, and electric shuttle vehicles to take you down to the Cathedral if you can’t walk that far. The loos in the Cloisters are open. A brilliant job by medical staff and all those volunteers. In the USA, American friends had to stay on the phone for 2.5 hours to book their appointments, so I’m glad to live where I do.

Julian

 

[Liam]

1 hour ago, jcredfer said:

These gave me such a warm smile when I read them, perhaps I may be forgiven for sharing a few.  Some of many from a local communication site...

I’ve just been to Salisbury Cathedral with a friend going for her vaccine. What a wonderful sight - hundreds of elderly, mostly infirm, people heading across the close to the Cathedral for their first vaccine. There was almost a holiday feeling. And the organ was playing. Never seen so many wheelies, walking sticks, wheelchairs all in one place. Well done our local health providers and well done Salisbury Cathedral . I would be lying if I said it didn’t bring a tear to my eye.

That's sound lovely. It's a great setting and a wonderful use of a wonderful place. My neighbour went today and it was great. They even let the dog in!

I had my jab there yesterday (the Pfizer vaccine). It all ran like clockwork. There is ample parking at the Harnham Gate end of the Close, and electric shuttle vehicles to take you down to the Cathedral if you can’t walk that far. The loos in the Cloisters are open. A brilliant job by medical staff and all those volunteers. In the USA, American friends had to stay on the phone for 2.5 hours to book their appointments, so I’m glad to live where I do.

Julian

 

It is indeed, and the same thing is also happening at Lichfield Cathedral. An excellent example of service to the community. 

[Clagmeister]

Well it is the new religion after all.  Good choice of location.