The future of our hobby.

[The Stationmaster]

Rather a trite and hackneyed term that has regularly cropped up in our hobby for as long as I can remember.  But this time things are different with a virus that doesn't discriminate in who it affects and which has led to a major impact on the commercial life of the country with, reportedly, a lot of the Govt financial assistance to small businesses being heavily filtered by the banks and thus difficult to obtain.

 

As end customers we buy from retailers large and small,  plus 'cottage industries' which are often little more than one man bands although no doubt some of them do not rely on railway modellers for all, even their main, income.  The retailers also come in all shapes and sizes many still nowadays being little more than sole traders with occasional helpers on busy days right through to the larger concerns with the number of employees measured in tens rather than ones and twos but financially the vast majority are still 'small businesses' and no doubt looking for financial support on that basis.   Beneficially for us, and many of the traders and retailers, there is a strong element of mail order and online selling in our hobby with direct, face-to-face. sales often restricted to shows for some of them, particularly the smaller traders.  The latter of course is currently a sales venue which they have lost and that might remain the case for some time to come.  Yes there will be variations and differences but I am really trying to look at the broad picture without diving down any of the numerous byways that exist for sales in our hobby.

 

Then there are the 'manufacturers' - a term which for many of them nowadays means companies which don't actually make what they sell but instead buy in from overseas factories.   Again in financial terms some of these are really no more than another form of small business although most, but not all, employ quite a number of people.  Here again current lock down restrictions can affect their business - varying in some cases from temporary closure during the lock down to others who rely on imported manufactures from China where there has already been an extended lock down.  Again the broad brush basically means, with detail variations, considerable costs to carry during a time of potentially limited sales, or no sales at all, but still various continuing costs.

 

So where does this mixture take us and oor hobby both now and in the future?  Well with one section of the hobby which seems to crave novelty (= new products) not very far if those products are not arriving from overseas and either the UK 'manufacturer' or a retailer is not able to get them to market to keep cash rolling in; i.e. there is a risk of cash flow problems at various places in the supply chain.  And cash flow problems can kill companies - big or small - if they are bad enough and prolonged enough.  Another aspect of this is what might happen to those concerns continuing to offer online/mail order sales because again volume and cash flow play an important part.  For example with no new locos or coaches to sell Mr, or Mrs, Retailer is still doing business but it's all lower price/margin items such as scenic materials or track (although with Peco closed there could well be exceptional demand for track while it's still available).  No doubt some locos and coaches will be bought but those markets, and hence cash flow, peaks which come with new releases might not be there until something new finally arrives from, say, China.

 

Strangely in this situation the smaller trader with potentially lower overheads and few if any staff to pay could suddenly be at an advantage over the larger concerns because perversely, and no doubt with some belt tightening, they are used to surviving on the lower volume because many purchasers of the novel go to the cheapest point of sale and ignore the more pricey small retailers.   But where does it leave the big boys with much higher overheads who still need to bring in cash?  Well  bargain offers' might be one thing. exploring different market areas might be another (assuming they can obtain the necessary stock to do that) might be another, and product innovation (bundling complementary items into a single sale package) another?   But in some respects we might be seeing the retail side of the hobby standing on its head in a a sort of reversal of what we normally see.  Oh and of course it all has to assume there are still folk out there spending - which reportedly so far seems to be the case.

 

How about the cottage industries?  Very much 'as you are' I think provided they are physically able to continue their business and can sell remotely by whatever method they normally use.   In fact in some cases demand will no doubt increase as the self-isolators and locked-down have much more time for their hobby and have the wherewithal to  financially support it.   Show sales will obviously be lost but if they have stocked up for the Spring show season they should have the products waiting to be bought.  Provided they are able to physically and financially survive they are in as good a position as they were before the lock down.  And if their customer base survives, or grows, they might end up in a better position than would otherwise have been the case. 'Real railway modelling' - as some call it - might even emerge at the other end in a strengthened position.

 

And finally the 'manufacturers' and the 'commissioners' and here it is really down to two things money (capital strength and ongoing cash flow plus, probably, Govt help) and the ability to actually have something to sell and be able to sell it and ship it.   If they have closed down for a while, as at least a couple have, it's really all about money with the hope that their brand, reputation, and product range, have the strength to enable them to re-establish their markets when they do re-open.  If they are still open it boils down to controlling costs and getting money in to keep the business alive while riding out the storm.  Product innovation or promotions using what is lying in the warehouse (e.g Hornby's 'Stay At Home Hamper') might help - and could no doubt equally help retailers when the stuff is able to reach them.  But overall I think it is going to be very much a case of maintaining place and maintaining brand reputation ready for the time when new stock rolls in - which will of course require working capital provision to actually acquire that new stock.

 

In conclusion - at last you say - we are very much where we are so 'bright' ideas about shifting manufacture elsewhere, or caning somebody for the retail prices they charge, or even 'blaming' somebody for the virus or someone else for allowing it to spread will I hope have no place in any discussion which arises from this post.  This is really about where and how the hobby might be able to survive and reasonably get from the starting point of today through whatever situation emerges at the end of lock down and relevant factors.  And it isn't about the rights or wrongs of lock down or other precautionary measures.

[OnTheBranchline]

Very well said Mike.

 

One thing to remember is that model railways are somewhat unique in terms of customer spending. There are definitely customers who aren't being financially affected by the current situation due to government/company pension income or just financially prudent/wealthy in general. So there will always be demand for model railways from a customer point of view. 

[friscopete]

I have found model railways  and models in general  often thrive in recessions or at least hang on in there more than other hobbies asnd such .A model loco may well be  hundred quid but you can spend that in bar with a floozie and a burger easily .My very modest Trackpass Figures have starting selling more in the  last week or two .Thats how it g oes.So until we get a black death scenario it will probably survive .The poor have never been able to  have model trains  and the rich are often too busy scewing other people to have any soul  but there is a huge lot in the  middle  with house paid for  or a lowish mortgage ,a pension or a securish job to indulge .The secret is to not have both floozies ,burgers and model trains .That is streching it too far .

[Nearholmer]

Disposable income. There will inevitably be less of it, so that public expenditure costs being incurred right now can be paid for.
 

And, my gut feel is that it won’t be like paying for propping-up banks in 2008, where the financial burden fell hardest on those with little or no capital (equity in houses; pension funds etc), it will have to fall more on those who have capital and ‘disposable’, which largely means older people.

 

But, having to pay a lot more tax, especially if you are currently comfortably off, which is what it amounts to, wont stop people making model railways. It might alter the quantity of purchases, and alter the things that we all “need” to buy, tipping it subtly back towards “materials and bits” and away from ‘big ticket’ toys ......... perversely, it might favour the smaller suppliers, bringing into play new ones (a) to meet a slightly altered market, and (b) to earn a bit to supplement the more-heavily-taxed pensions of those fortunate enough to have good pensions.

[The Johnster]

Interesting questions, Mike, and ones that my O Level Economics do not really qualify me to comment on.  As I understand it, the seaborne container business has not been drastically affected so long as the ships are allowed to enter ports, which they may not be if things get much worse.  But things are apparently not going to get much worse, or at least the rate at which they are deteriorating will diminish, so that may well not happen.  The Chinese response, important in this discussion because that's where our RTR comes from, was to restrict movement and keep people in the same place; work carried on to a very large extent as normal so long as social distancing could be managed.  So our models are probably still being produced, though at a slower pace.

 

There could well be an increase in demand for the local retailers, already well stocked, to satisfy when restrictions are lifted, as a reservoir of demand will have built up.  Markups, I am told by one of them, are very small on big spend items like locos and coaches; he makes his profits on wagons, kits, accessories, paints, glues, tools, and scenic materials, plus the odd deal with secondhand stuff.  I'm reminded of a schoolfriend whose widowed mother ran a newsagent/tobacconist shop, and told me she actually lost money on cigarettes when the insurance and security measures were taken into account.  But, she said, if everyone who bought a packet of fags bought a newspaper, magazine, bottle of pop, box of matches, or pack of sweets, she could retire at 50 to her desired bungalow with a bit of garden.  She did it when she was 47; bought the bungy outright and my friend got a new car.

 

These high mark up items are exactly the sort of things produced by smaller cottage industry concerns.  The big change is going to be something that was already happening anyway, the use of internet shopping, currently the only sort available, and I believe that the pandemic will mark the change from retail outlets other than food being the normal way to shop for them and a shift to the internet, not just for model railways but most non-comestibles; clothes, electrical goods, consumer electronics, plants, toys, diy stuff, stationery, even pets, will be mostly purchased online and delivered.  The delivery industry is in for a boom time if you're looking for something to invest in.  Shops, such as exist, will either be repurposed as cafes, bars, entertainment venues etc or become showrooms to display, and perhaps order, goods you will have delivered.  

 

People will bemoan the death of their high streets, but they will largely be the very same people who have not been to their high street for years, who currently shop online or at out of town malls.  These will vanish, probably to be replaced by delivery distribution depots, and I for one won't miss them!

 

A big loser in all this will be car industry.  Offset to an extent by increased demand for light delivery vehicles, demand will fall considerably as private cars are used less for work and shopping (working from home will be the norm for clerical work), and hence last much longer before they need replacing.  They will still be needed of course in rural areas where there is inadequate public transport, but the majority of car owners are urbanites, and these will only be using them for the personal, private, and pleasure stipulated on the insurance cover note, and not for business travel or commuting to anything like the same extend.  Demand for petrol will drop as mileages decrease as well, but the oil companies can absorb that.  Tyres and similar ancilliaries will last longer and need to be replaced less often as well.  Cars will go for longer periods between overhauls as well; many local repair shops will have to either diversify or close.

 

The world isn't going to be the same after this.  In some respects it'll be better, but not all.  I don't care so long as my 94xx turns up in September (there may be a tongue in cheek element to this statement)...

Edited April 5, 2020 by The Johnster

[Talltim]

Much is always made in ‘the death of the hobby’ threads that most modellers (at least those seen at exhibitions) are retirement age or older. While I’m aware that this paints a false picture of the future of the hobby as many modellers come to it later in life once they children have left home etc, I can’t help feeling that because of the greater risk from the virus to the older people, it will effect this generation of modeller/model equipment consumers, leading to a downturn in sales until the next lot filter through to retirement. This comes on top of rising retirement ages generally, which means people coming to the hobby later and having a shorter timespan being active in it.

Thus I think, while the hobby will survive, the manufacturers are going to have a good few lean years.

All that of course, doesn’t even consider what the economy in general will do.

[APOLLO]

A game changer for sure - and it has only just getting going.

 

Everybody's response to our (and every other) hobby will be different depending on their own circumstances.

 

Personally my model purchases are on indefinite hold due to the uncertain future. Family comes first, though (fingers crossed) all is OK at the moment on that front. 

 

My model railways are also on hold as I use the good weather we are having to do the garden, many house jobs that have been building up over winter etc. I did get the garden railway running, a ball ache cleaning track etc after winter. Nice to see it running again.

 

The days of lots of new model releases perhaps won't be over but may be scaled down somewhat. Some retail outlets perhaps will permanently close, perhaps one or two of the big players - I don't know.

 

Not too much gloom & doom - but a matter of wait and see (and I will try to do some modelling when I run out of all the house jobs !!).

 

Our hobby will survive.

 

Brit15

 

 

[Dava]

Some micro/small business designer/maker/distributors I know are continuing to trade, but finding their suppliers, such as casters, etchers, printers or even workshop landlords are on shutdown, which affects them. I expect there will be a shakedown of small firms generally choosing or forced to close. 

 

Those able to use digital tech, with least dependence on affected suppliers, are probably most resilient. I really appreciate a designer/maker of 3D printed narrow gauge chassis being able to continue to accept and produce to order, for example.

 

Dava

[Legend]

It’s a really difficult one to plot there are so many different factors feeding in .

 

From the demand side , there are those whose income has just suddenly dried up , so that’s got to affect demand for model trains, and of course that’s of little consequence to them . We hope that govt support kicks in and helps alleviate the stress . On the other hand , there are those whose income continues unchanged , and it maybe the case that enforced lock down actually increases demand for model trains to keep people occupied . So demand is far from clear .  Going forward once this is over , demand will come back , although  it may take some time .

 

from manufacturers and retailers point of view i suppose it depends how much gearing they have  ie the proportion of their business funded by debt . As income drops off they still have to service the debt ie pay the interest .  I was particularly concerned for Hornby who as we know are not in great financial condition but appeared to be making progress getting out of the mess . What they don’t need is drop in sales , especially as they are funded by loans . Having said that although clearly there must be some disruption they are still delivering new models . I think the new sliding door Mk3s are imminent for instance . So if this is short lived , say 6 months then I think we can get throught it . Any longer than that then Regretably  some outlets may disappear . So again this could cause a temporary shortage of sales , but Hornby at least still have a direct sales outlet so may not be that badly affected .

 

For those in cottage industries , well as the name says “cottage” so they may not have huge overheads and be able to shut down and resume after this is over . On the other hand if they can work out mail order/e selling they could perhaps even exploit the situation . The downside here maybe shortage of raw materials to keep them going .

 

Hopefully  our financial services/banks will play their part and help to tide people over . There can be little benefit it in driving people out of business  if in the long term they have a solid business model . This is the banks chance to redeem themselves from 2008

 

Just wishing everyone the best . 

[darrel]

Many in the hobby are in the older age group and have paid off their mortgage, kids have left home and they have more money to spend on the hobby. Sadly this age group fall into the at risk group. Some of them who knows how many, will not be around after this is all over. 

Those in the younger age groups will have seen a drop in wages due to not being able to work therefore they will have less money to spend on non essentials. 

So in general terms there will be less money being spent on the hobby.

Model shops which are not able to open will be losing money but still having to pay rent and rates how long this is sustainable depends on how long this lasts for. Yes many do online sales but some do not, they will be less likely to survive. 

Model railway exhibitions will be cancelled for the rest of the year at least. It takes a lot of work to organise an exhibition even a small one. How can anyone plan a exhibition if they don't know how long this will last for. It will be impossible to hold meetings to plan shows. I know some of the larger shows take a year of planning. It may be possible to cram a years worth of planning into 8 months, but some of the large shows in the early part of next year may have to be either scaled back or cancelled. Many of this years shows will have lost money. They may have paid deposits for the venue or have committed to other expenditure that money will now be lost. For example this years York show no doubt would have already had tickets and programmes printed. 

We live in uncertain times and everything has changed. I'm sure the hobby will see some casualties whether it's the closure of some shops or the loss of a manufacturer. But the same could be said of other areas of life. Some football teams may not survive some shops and cafes may never reopen. Anything is possible and nothing can be ruled out.

 

[Allegheny1600]

14 hours ago, Talltim said:

 I can’t help feeling that because of the greater risk from the virus to the older people, it will effect this generation of modeller/model equipment consumers, leading to a downturn in sales until the next lot filter through to retirement.

I had been thinking along these lines, just earlier today.

I'm very sad but I worry about how many older modellers will not come out of this (as well as older people in general) and I think that IF this does happen, it will have a double edged sword effect.

Not only will there be less people spending on new products but the secondhand market could be flooded thereby driving prices down.

I lost a good friend last November (not Covid related) and as far as I know, there will be a substantial collection waiting to hit the market there - maybe one of the major emporiums will put his stock up for sale? It is such that one person would have to be very wealthy to afford it.

Multiply that sad affair by ten or more and that is an enormous effect on stock availability and spending power, which will surely affect those trying to sell new products.

 

Despite this gloomy outlook, I still believe our hobby and passion will weather this storm, after all, we came through WW2 okay.

[Joseph_Pestell]

3 hours ago, Legend said:

Hopefully  our financial services/banks will play their part and help to tide people over . There can be little benefit it in driving people out of business  if in the long term they have a solid business model . This is the banks chance to redeem themselves from 2008

 

 

 

A whole squadron of Gloucester Old Spots has just flown past my window.

[Legend]

11 minutes ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

 

A whole squadron of Gloucester Old Spots has just flown past my window.

 

Being sharp on the uptake , I take it that's some sort of pig!

 

But really with reference to the banks the key thing is it cannot be in THEIR interests to drive solid businesses out by foreclosing . Instead it maybe better if they can defer repayments until after crisis over , then they have a guaranteed future income  , whereas if they put a company out of business because it cannot make repayments , the bank may not recover the sums outstanding and that business has disappeared for good , so no future income .   I'm not suggesting banks have suddenly become benevolent , there would be squadrons of pigs lined up for that , just that financially it may be in their best interests to defer repayments .

[jcm@gwr]

26 minutes ago, Allegheny1600 said:

I had been thinking along these lines, just earlier today.

I'm very sad but I worry about how many older modellers will not come out of this (as well as older people in general) and I think that IF this does happen, it will have a double edged sword effect.

Not only will there be less people spending on new products but the secondhand market could be flooded thereby driving prices down.

I lost a good friend last November (not Covid related) and as far as I know, there will be a substantial collection waiting to hit the market there - maybe one of the major emporiums will put his stock up for sale? It is such that one person would have to be very wealthy to afford it.

Multiply that sad affair by ten or more and that is an enormous effect on stock availability and spending power, which will surely affect those trying to sell new products.

 

Despite this gloomy outlook, I still believe our hobby and passion will weather this storm, after all, we came through WW2 okay.

 

Although I generally agree, I think it's worth waiting to see what effect a large number

of second hand items have on the market, and therefore the hobby.

It is possible, that a lot of second hand items actually opens up the market to those who

either can't afford some of the newer items, or brings back to the market items no longer

available, or even tempts those who are 'on the fence'.

[Nearholmer]

Even at the grimmest end of the plausible figures, I don’t think this beast is likely to cause enough mortality to directly affect the size of the market in a significant manner.

 

Indirect affects? Yes, many and varied.

 

As to collections: the number of serious collections, rather than mega-stashes of recent production, is few, and interested people know what rarities they contain, so that the passing of a serious collector is usually marked by an auction at which a few slightly younger bods beat each other about the heads with their wallets for the privilege of becoming custodian of the rarities for twenty or thirty years.

 

Unless the ‘collectors in waiting’ have all been reaped, then the same will happen, but prices may ‘soften’ in a tougher economic environment, especially for things that appeal very strongly to a particular generation (the price of pre-war Hornby has already fallen as the older Meccano Boys have downsized and/or moved-on).

 

 

Edited April 6, 2020 by Nearholmer

[Joseph_Pestell]

57 minutes ago, Legend said:

 

Being sharp on the uptake , I take it that's some sort of pig!

 

But really with reference to the banks the key thing is it cannot be in THEIR interests to drive solid businesses out by foreclosing . Instead it maybe better if they can defer repayments until after crisis over , then they have a guaranteed future income  , whereas if they put a company out of business because it cannot make repayments , the bank may not recover the sums outstanding and that business has disappeared for good , so no future income .   I'm not suggesting banks have suddenly become benevolent , there would be squadrons of pigs lined up for that , just that financially it may be in their best interests to defer repayments .

 

I entirely agree. To any sensible person, that is the option that banks should take.

 

But recent history shows otherwise. At the same time as they were being baled out by Govt in 2010, they were foreclosing on perfectly viable businesses. There have been some court cases, notably one where a former bank manager gave evidence against the bank, that have resulted in those business owners getting compensation. Will that give pause for thought at the banks? Sadly, I doubt it.

[The Stationmaster]

3 hours ago, Nearholmer said:

Even at the grimmest end of the plausible figures, I don’t think this beast is likely to cause enough mortality to directly affect the size of the market in a significant manner.

 

Indirect affects? Yes, many and varied.

 

As to collections: the number of serious collections, rather than mega-stashes of recent production, is few, and interested people know what rarities they contain, so that the passing of a serious collector is usually marked by an auction at which a few slightly younger bods beat each other about the heads with their wallets for the privilege of becoming custodian of the rarities for twenty or thirty years.

 

Unless the ‘collectors in waiting’ have all been reaped, then the same will happen, but prices may ‘soften’ in a tougher economic environment, especially for things that appeal very strongly to a particular generation (the price of pre-war Hornby has already fallen as the older Meccano Boys have downsized and/or moved-on).

 

 

I think that is very much the most likely scenario.  While some people may well be short of money when things return to whatever passes for normal the usual way it seems to work in collecting (of most things) is that when more 'stuff' appears on the market prices start to drop.  And when prices drop new collectors join in because they can now afford to collect things they previously couldn't afford as a consequence of those lower prices.  and because r there are now new, additional collectors, prices tend to start rising again.  The rise and fall of Hornby Dublo prices and the way Trix Twin accessory prices rose at one time are illustrations of this.

 

But the generational scenario could  apply and interest in 'whatevers' can wane because there are no longer those around who knew and coveted such things in their youth.  But then a whole new market can sometimes open up

[Northroader]

Looking at it from another angle, we’ve become very accustomed to having a big slice of modelling products being made in China. How much resentment will there be to buying from there in future?

[Richard_A]

21 hours ago, Northroader said:

Looking at it from another angle, we’ve become very accustomed to having a big slice of modelling products being made in China. How much resentment will there be to buying from there in future?

Seeing that as a country we were dealing with West Germany within 10 years of WW2 ending, with all the horrors that the Nazis perpetrated, I think we should give the Chinese a bit of slack with a virus.

[Northroader]

The difference is that we were dealing with a west Germany that had a parliamentary democracy installed to replace an authoritarian regime which had inflicted untold horror, whereas now we’re dealing with a country run by an authoritarian regime which has actively tried to cover up how bad this epidemic has been, and distorted the facts about it.

['CHARD]

1 hour ago, Northroader said:

The difference is that we were dealing with a west Germany that had a parliamentary democracy installed to replace an authoritarian regime which had inflicted untold horror, whereas now we’re dealing with a country run by an authoritarian regime which has actively tried to cover up how bad this epidemic has been, and distorted the facts about it.

 

Judging by the ignorance, or at least lack of discernment, and unquestioning sheep-like behaviour of a significant slice of the British population (see 'Covidiots'), they don't care a fig where stuff is produced, so long as it fits their criteria for consumption: available now, meets their expectations, and most of all CHEAP.

 

The nation's history on human rights hasn't dented the appetite for stuff made there in the past 40+ years and I doubt this will either, especially if they close the wet-markets and stop snacking on cute pangolins as a nod to progress/ enlightenment.

[Legend]

22 hours ago, Northroader said:

Looking at it from another angle, we’ve become very accustomed to having a big slice of modelling products being made in China. How much resentment will there be to buying from there in future?

 

None . I think you'll find price trumps everything .   Although labour cost is only a proportion of the final cost of model , labour rates in China are still only 25% of what they are here.  So it'll be back to normal and we will be buying Hornby, Bachmann, Heljan, Dapol, Hattons,Accurascale  all made in China.

 

Not model railways but I hope there is a wake up call and we don't revert to buying all essential items from abroad . I'm thinking generic drugs like paracetamol , ventilators , PPE where there must be a strategic case for having a home supply.

Edited April 7, 2020 by Legend

[mdvle]

1 hour ago, Northroader said:

The difference is that we were dealing with a west Germany that had a parliamentary democracy installed to replace an authoritarian regime which had inflicted untold horror, whereas now we’re dealing with a country run by an authoritarian regime which has actively tried to cover up how bad this epidemic has been, and distorted the facts about it.

 

Because of course the western democracies have covered themselves in so much glory with their handling of the pandemic.

 

Whether it be the Austrians (who knew they had a problem at a ski resort, but the tourist income was more important and so they procrastinated and delayed shutting the resort area down), or Florida (where Spring Break tourism dollars meant they allowed the "kids" to play on the beaches, and then take the virus home with them), to entire country leaderships denying that the virus is a threat at all - there is lots of blame / cover-up / distortions to go around.

 

But at the end of the day, when we exit this, people will still continue to buy from China because a) most people are blissfully unaware of the source of much of what they buy and b) for those items where we are aware - like say model trains - nobody is willing to pay 5 to 10 times the cost to have them made in a full-wage country.

['CHARD]

3 minutes ago, Legend said:

 

Not model railways but I hope there is a wake up call and we don't revert to buying all essential items from abroad . I'm thinking generic drugs like paracetamol , ventilators , PPE where there must be a strategic case for having a home supply.

 

It struck me last night when looking through 'Birmingham Canal Navigations Then & Now,' how much the skyline had altered in the past 50 years as small to medium manufacturing has fallen off a cliff. 

 

The surroundings are now full of identikit housing (another debate for another time), and the fettling, metal-bashing and screwing-together has all been 'exported.' 

 

It really does rile me that the clear and present risk of doing away with self-sufficiency has contributed to the current supply chain crisis.

[whart57]

While the present crisis is going to have a huge effect in the short term, I'm not so sure that the medium to long term economic effects are going to be major game changers. Previous economic shocks - the 2008 banking crash, the 2002 dotcom bubble pop, Black Monday in 1993, devaluation in 1967 and of course the shocks of the interwar years were just that - economic shocks, with economic causes. This is different, this is business and economics being put on hold for three months. Many of the businesses seeking help are basically sound and most of the workers needing money to tide them over have a good chance of getting their jobs back.

 

It all depends on what our leaders, both here and abroad, do in planning our release from captivity. We are lucky that for all the wrong reasons we have ended up with a Chancellor who seems to have some grasp of what needs to be done. We have a Chancellor who does not owe his job to his loyalty to the political project of which we may not speak. On top of that, his newly appointed shadow is also a finance person and not a politician hopping from post to post. So we may actually end up with a coherent exit strategy that has wide support.

 

If we do, and a similar level of wisdom appears across our European neighbours (and American voters boot out the spivs in the White House) then medium to long term things may not be too bad. A bit more in banks and investment funds will be money that has no link to reality, but most of it is like that anyway. No, the future of our hobby has other risks.

 

One is the age profile, which we all know about. The club I am a member of has some enthusiastic young members (young here being under thirty) but they are outnumbered by us old farts. I suspect other clubs are the same.

 

The second is whether the RTR suppliers' business strategy is sustainable. And would it survive if the guy with the black cloak and scythe takes out a chunk of the older generation and their stock, collected over the years, ends up as bargains on eBay.