Will we lose shops and how badly?

[Phil Parker]

A lot depends on the specific circumstances of each business. Several small family-owned businesses are doing nicely on mail-order. They don't let anyone in other than deliveries - and these can be handled in a safe way with the correct protocols. Sales for many are going through the roof, so if you can trade by post, things are actually looking good. I know of manufacturers rushed off their feet trying to keep up with demand. In addition, the boats are on their way from China with product and those finding paths up the WCML are sorting them out for later this week to shift containers.

 

My personal take on all this is that we will be in something like the current situation for around 2 years. You can't release lock-down properly until there is a vaccine. Even on the most optimistic projection, that doesn't arrived until the autumn, then you need to jab people with it which will take a year.

 

With that in mind, all types of business will have to adapt to survive. Supermarkets have already changed dramatically for a start. Others will follow. Gradually, delivery services will get back to normal and then expand their operations. It's a good time to be a maker of vans for supermarkets as even if things do return to near normal, many people will stick with delivery as they have found they like it. After 4 weeks and counting, many business owners will have been thinking about change and the extension of lock-down will have galvanised their plans as they realise this isn't going to be over in a hurry.

 

Model shops in out-of town areas like the local shopping precincts built years ago in 1960s estates might do OK. Bang in the middle of a town centre is tough as people want to be there, but in that row of shops designed when mum didn't work and fewer people had cars, you have a good base for mail order and the occasional caller eventually. I know a couple of shops operating in just such a way. People will travel to a specialist shop so you don't need to be next to M&S, even if it would be nice (bring back Beatties!)

 

27 minutes ago, MartynJPearson said:

I could be completely wrong, but it was my understanding that some of the larger manufacturers insisted on companies having a physical presence (rather than just being online) to be regarded as an official retailer. I wonder if that might change in future?

 

Peco and Bachmann - good point. They may have to adapt, but the underlying reasons they insist on a shop won't have changed. I can't see them opening up to blokes operating on eBay from their spare room in a hurry.

[rue_d_etropal]

18 minutes ago, MartynJPearson said:

I could be completely wrong, but it was my understanding that some of the larger manufacturers insisted on companies having a physical presence (rather than just being online) to be regarded as an official retailer. I wonder if that might change in future?

 

One of the bigger worries of course is when we all realise that those "greedy landlords" running commercial properties were actually where our pension funds were invested.

I suspect things will change. At one time some tried to limit mail order, then it was the internet, but the writing has been on the wall for a long time. Remember it is now over 10 years since Woolworths closed, and quite a few years before that they closed their biggest stores such as Liverpool, as costs were too high. P&O started to offload their shopping malls many yeas ago, and there havs been a big change within the property companies, many of them in effect now owned by pension funds.

And pension funds are possibly one of the weak links. They grew when times were good, and many of those who have benefitted are either no longer around or won't be for much longer. When will it dawn on more people that the only way big companies make lots of money is by undercutting , and only paying what they can get away with. Ultimately they will run out of those at the bottom toexploit. Sorry , getting political.

The future is small, small businesses linked together, and the internet is their High Street.

 

There has been a lot of discussion , some here, but some areas are probably worth looking at simply because they have been very quiet, probably hoping to srvive by not being noticed. One is pension funds, which has been mentioned here, another is the insurance industry. I suspect number of insurance claims has gone down, with fewer cars on the roads and fewer accidents on the roads , not forgeting all those work places now empty, but I have no heard of any proposals to cut insurance costs.

 

 

[Phil Parker]

35 minutes ago, rue_d_etropal said:

I suspect number of insurance claims has gone down, with fewer cars on the roads and fewer accidents on the roads , not forgeting all those work places now empty, but I have no heard of any proposals to cut insurance costs.

 

Really? It's been in the news: https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/news/2020/04/admiral-car-and-van-insurance-customers-to-get-automatic-p25-ref/

 

[Nearholmer]

1 hour ago, rue_d_etropal said:

Ultimately they will run out of those at the bottom toexploit

Call it ‘exploit’ or ‘employ’, and either/both can be true, but firms will never run out while there are people on the planet who are willing to take lower wages/conditions than others ....... that’s what “globalisation” is about.

 

The best you can hope is that it results in a ‘levelling up’ across the globe.

 

Then the robots will undercut us all.

[Widnes Model Centre]

 

Some very interesting points. I really hope that Phil Parker is way off the mark. I fear he may be very accurate in his timescale for a return to normality. 

 

A few  issues in relation to deliveries. As we are in a town centre with lots of non essential shops, we are reliably informed that couriers are assuming shops are closed and not even attempting to deliver. We do know for certain that The postie isn’t delivering mail on the same assumption. Apart from the independent food shop and the bike shop there are no other shops open. 

 

Insurance for shops alway have a maximum number of days unoccupied clause. Ours is thirty days. Very worrying if you had to prove that you hadn’t exceeded that. Our insurer has hinted that we may need to check our alarm system is working by opening the door and then reset the alarm. That way the alarm company logs the entry and exit. It was only a hint and not policy. 

 

Business Interruption Insurance? Great for fire, flood, criminal acts. If any shop has cover for Infectious Disease, why did you pay extra for that? But with hindsight.......

 

Car insurance? My wife’s car insurance has gone up by 50%. No reason whatsoever and she is an excellent driver! Managed to get it reduced by £96. But with insurance agents working from home not a great time to shop around for a better quote.

 

I would encourage modellers to try contacting their local shop. You may find that they are doing mail order.

[Chris M]

Well I've spent more at model railways shops over the last four weeks than I did over the whole of last year. I think the model shops with a good online presence are mostly doing ok, even the small ones.

I find it a bit strange though, I've just paid £5 delivery charge to get scenic materials from a shop that is ten minutes drive away. I even cycled past it yesterday as part of my daily exercise. Slightly irritating but nevertheless it is important to keep contact down to a minimum and great to be able to continue building so I am happy to pay the postage.

 

I am hopeful that we will not lose many shops. It could be that a fair few people have finally got round to starting a model railway.

 

 

[Guy Rixon]

The demand for model railway supplies isn't going to change much as a result of the plague, so the viability of the shops long-term rests on the evolution of the mail-order segment of the trade. That could go either way, at different times.

 

Shipping costs are a big factor for me, buying small consignments. There could be a rise in courier costs, short/medium-term, as the demand for deliveries of other goods stays high, and there could be a decrease longer-term, as more couriers arise to satisfy the demand.

 

One might also ask whether it's nicer for a retailer to run a physical shop where they have to go in every day and open up, or to trade from home, talking to customers on-line. In my day job, I'm finding full-time work from home rather pleasing and I shall be disappointed when I have to go back in to work. I think the incentive to open any new shops, or to take over existing ones when the owners retire, will fall.

[ruggedpeak]

1 hour ago, Neverwood said:

Although it is a number of years since I retired from business I can confirm that at that time  certain major companies refused to supply their products if one did not have retail premises. I cannot confirm that the situation still pertains but I would hazard that it still does.

Certainly was, I tried to set up a business selling model trains from home before the internet was a proper 'thing' (business visionary that I am - of course I should have gone for books and now I'd be a gazillionaire but hey ho....) and can confirm that the key players in UK model trains required a physical shop or premises before they would supply anything.

[caradoc]

14 hours ago, 87029 said:

We have sat and done the sums about how long the cash we have will last, but what we don't know is how long the lockdown will last, and when, and if, our shop trading will return to what we would consider normal.

 

Another consideration is what our suppliers will do once lockdown is over. Will we be deluged with the goods that we would have expected over the past few weeks, and will the cash then be available for to pay for these from a resumption in our trading,

 

Many of us have received the rates grant, but we have had to use part of this to pay suppliers for goods that came in pre-lockdown, and where the monies that would have come in through normal trading, but didn't because of the lockdown. And then there are fixed costs such as rent, fees for online trading etc,, plus the need to support ourselves, as we are self-employed.

 

There is deferment of VAT and income tax which will help cash flow, but it all needs to be paid eventually.

 

The financial tightrope keeps moving around beneath our feet, and we do not know which direction it will go in next. Just so long as we can still be standing on it when things get back to normal.

 

Interesting times.

 

 

Even though I live in another country (ie in Glasgow !) C&M Models is nowadays, along with Harburn Hobbies in Edinburgh, pretty much my local model shop, and I very much look forward to visiting once it becomes possible.

 

[Widnes Model Centre]

 

Just had to add that one of the fairly local, on line only traders is working 24/7 . He is 3-d printing face masks clips and chin straps for the local hospice. Thank you, Leigh Models and Hobbies. 

[warbonnetuk]

6 hours ago, roundhouse said:

My 'local' model shop is Gaugemaster 50 or so miles away but is the one that I tend to frequent most as its near my other halfs mother.

 

More local is Kernow Guildford but that is around 35 - 40 minutes away plus add another 5 - 10  for walking form the car park so only tend to go there if someone else is also going as you cant ring direct to check they have what you want, so mail order is my normal way now.

 

You forgot about Roxley Models.......

 

 

[Legend]

Yep this won't be fully over until there's a vaccine. That looks 18 months to 2 years away .

 

As to what shops make it . Those with relatively small overheads like small family run businesses maybe ok as long as they get rate relief . For those that can offer mail order and have a web presence things might actually be relatively good and business could even be up .  Those with higher overheads are more likely to founder . I fear for our High St . If I look at Glasgow all the old bank buildings  have been turned into eateries or bars  I just can't see any sort of normality returning there when we need to maintain social distancing . These businesses will simply run out of cash.  You can maintain business with reserves, loans, furloughs for months not years . So the City Centre as a destination is going to die out . Then you have the big shops like Debenhams and House of Fraser . Already looking ropey before the pandemic a reduction in footfall isn't going to do them any good. Smaller shops will have to adhere to social distancing so may need to restrict numbers in the shop at any one time , so that must affect most model shops . 

 

I do think things will look rather different when we come out of this . It maybe that traditional hobbies , like ours get a boost, but I think a lot of it will have to be on line rather than a physical presence . If you want model railways in Glasgow , you had to go on line anyway even before the pandemic.  

 

Its amazing how you are going to miss the things you took for granted . A trip in the train to Glasgow for a look round the shops , have something to eat , drink etc .  Even if lockdowns are eased on May 7th its going to be far from normal. I looked at pics on the news of the new hospital in SECC . Its less than 2 months since Model Rail Scotland was held there . Who could have believed then it would be a hospital in less than 2 months !

Edited April 21, 2020 by Legend

[roundhouse]

3 hours ago, warbonnetuk said:

 

You forgot about Roxley Models.......

 

 

Ah yes, slightly closer but not yet had chance to go there.

[Not Captain Kernow]

On 21/04/2020 at 07:54, roundhouse said:

More local is Kernow Guildford but that is around 35 - 40 minutes away plus add another 5 - 10  for walking form the car park so only tend to go there if someone else is also going as you cant ring direct to check they have what you want, so mail order is my normal way now.

 

You can call, your call will go through to Camborne but they can see what stock is in Guildford and even have it put back for you ready to collect.  If they don't have it they can arrange to send it up on the daily delivery and let you know what day it will be available from.  (not in the present situation though of course)

[Ouroborus]

On 21/04/2020 at 14:22, Legend said:

Yep this won't be fully over until there's a vaccine. That looks 18 months to 2 years away .

 

 

 

It won't be.  You can forget about all the vitro, vivo and RCDB trials - that was in a different time.  Expect a couple of months.

[tomparryharry]

I can see it now....

 

Dark night, under a bridge, the little yellow van approaches... A dapper little fellow jumps out.... Cap pulled down, collar turned up.

 

"Alright son, it's 90 Sovs for a pannier, 40 Knicker fer the coaches...." I can let you 'ave a bag of ballast fer a tenner. Givin' it away, we are; givin' it away....."

['CHARD]

3 hours ago, Ouroborus said:

 

It won't be.  You can forget about all the vitro, vivo and RCDB trials - that was in a different time.  Expect a couple of months.

 

Really?  Unless I've missed something, that doesn't reflect what was mentioned by the Oxford team who started injecting the human guinea pigs this afternoon.

[stewartingram]

21 minutes ago, 'CHARD said:

 

Really?  Unless I've missed something, that doesn't reflect what was mentioned by the Oxford team who started injecting the human guinea pigs this afternoon.

He's been listening to Trump again.

[Ouroborus]

13 minutes ago, 'CHARD said:

 

Really?  Unless I've missed something, that doesn't reflect what was mentioned by the Oxford team who started injecting the human guinea pigs this afternoon.

 

You're made my point for me.  Until now, proposed vaccines were the subject of countless rounds of theoretical testing before moving onto live animal tests and years in the future, humans.

 

Less than six months after covid was identified, here we are with human testing.

 

It's a different world.

 

I work for the frontline NHS.  Today we received a new directive on 'disposable' ppe.  Turns out it's not as disposable as it was a year ago.  The risk to humans from reuse, not as bad as was thought.  This follows the outlook on antibiotics changing.  Two months ago, their use was discouraged, now it's encouraged to lessen patient/practitioner contact - we don't even have to see the patient.  A year ago I was at a tribunal where the clinician was slammed for prescribing amoxicillin for an infection, now it's an expectation.  You'll remember that a month ago, facemasks were labelled as ineffective for public use, now you're seeing suggestions that they will be mandatory.

 

Believe me, healthcare is moving blisteringly fast, we literally don't know what we'll be doing one week to the next.   But through it all, I've seen a remarkable ability for the  NHS to get a shift on when it has to - things get done.  Don't believe the doom merchants of the media - when the shackles are off and we're allowed to treat, a blind eye is turned to absences in admin, you'll be amazed what can be achieved.

 

Same goes for the vaccine - in the old world, no way should it be ready for human trials.  But that was then.  With such a contagious virus, risk aversion has gone out of window, pressure on to stop people dying and get economies working.    I can understand the attempts to downplay expectations of timeline for giving false hope is counterproductive, but mark my words, if what is happening on the frontline is replicated in r&d, it isn't going to be long

[Ouroborus]

9 minutes ago, stewartingram said:

He's been listening to Trump again.

 

Thanks for your supportive words Stewart.

[AY Mod]

21 minutes ago, Ouroborus said:

Don't believe the doom merchants of the media

 

Shouldn't we listen to the senior figures who are assisting daily briefings and say it will take time?

[APOLLO]

There's senior figures and senior figures.

 

Qualified, experienced medical senior figures I will listen to.

 

Others, Trump (especially), certain UK politicians, tabloid sensationalistic journalism, etc I just laugh at.

 

It (a vaccine) will take time, but what ouroburus posted above gives me a little more hope it will be sooner, God willing.

 

Brit15

Edited April 23, 2020 by APOLLO
typo

[friscopete]

Basically the worlds economy is effed,effed , and thrice  effed. No matter  when and what comes out the other side ,its going to be very different to what it was going in.Still at least Keef is still alive  and the cockroaches .

Edited April 23, 2020 by friscopete

[Ouroborus]

22 minutes ago, AY Mod said:

 

Shouldn't we listen to the senior figures who are assisting daily briefings and say it will take time?

 

Possibly Andy, but some of those senior advisors are dry fingered clinicians who've never treated a patient since they left medical school.  Those senior figures are also the same people who hid the mid staffs hospitals scandal.   But they'll tell me how to care for a patient.  I'll listen to what they say, but what they say changes like the wind, often to suit the prevailing politician.  Never more quickly than the last two months.  You'll forgive me if I treat their opinions with some scepticism.  In contrast my manager who took me to one side and said - ' I trust you to do your best for the patients - do that and I'll back you whatever'.   Boy is it great to be working under conditions like that - it's like a weight has been lifted.

 

Apologies for my grumpiness  and sense of humour failure, but work is difficult at times and my mood not helped by some Facebook posts of people stressing about a photo challenge and such like.  I also found out a colleague died from the virus today - 33.  Looking for glimmers of light in a sea of darkness is my way of getting through the days - you'll forgive me my optimism on the vaccine.

[AY Mod]

13 minutes ago, Ouroborus said:

if I treat their opinions with some scepticism. 

 

I listen with a sceptical ear too, the point was they're saying the same as the room mongers earlier referenced. I also see that they cannot give false horizons for fear that numb-nuts will think they can go back to normal tomorrow, not when the time is right.