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Will we lose shops and how badly?


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I’m am community pharmacist and was originally told no need to wear masks, then later told to wear masks and was sent enough to last a couple of days. When they ran out we were in breach of Health and Safety at work Regulations but we were told this is the type of sacrifice that you need to make.

Since then we made our own and sourced some ourselves at 10 times the market value. Things have eased a little on the PPE front but it’s been through our own endeavours.

 

Things do move fast.

 

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1 hour ago, AY Mod said:

 

Shouldn't we listen to the senior figures who are assisting daily briefings and say it will take time?

 

To an extent.  

 

But to what extent?  

 

Of the "senior figures" whose comments I see - which is almost certainly not the full picture - I am led to an impression of "worst-case scenario" being given throughout.  At one stage we were being prepared for 250,000 deaths in the UK.  It looks as though we shall be nearer 10% of that.  Which is far too many but nowhere near what was once being predicted by the "senior figures".  There are some signs of preparation for a slight easing of movements.  Staff are returning to work in small numbers in some cases.  Fresh coffee was being roasted at the Nero plant today (which, I grant, may be specifically intended for medical staff at dedicated outlets) and more railway staff are being returned to duty, which is the industry I know most about directly, having been stood down a month ago.  

 

There might be some medium-term impact on social interaction but the government is also keenly aware that the nation cannot survive forever under lockdown nor can folk avoid bankruptcy if businesses are forcibly closed for many months.  There is already some social relaxation apparent in the London area where according to some "senior figures" the peak is well past, hospital admissions well down with plenty of spare capacity and infection rates are now very low.  People are happy to talk (usually at a respectful distance) rather than behave like scared rabbits and swerving like dodgem cars to avoid each other.  

 

The messages are mixed.  Suggestions of a long-term lockdown but equally a return to some schooling during June.  No public places open until at least the end of the year but hints that some may be open sooner rather than later and a determination in some quarters to avoid dumping millions of gallons of beer if some form of alternative to crowded pubs can be arranged.  

 

I find it hard to trust the "experts" when the fall-back position is "we don't know" and some messages appear to contradict others.  I certainly find it unhelpful to have doom-and-gloom statistics poured out when there should be some good news as well.  The UK government ceased publishing the number of "recovered" cases some time ago which is manipulating the statistics to the extent that it gives - arguably - a far worse impression than is actually the case because it appears that no-one has recovered.  By association therefore it appears that all infected persons in the UK either remain infectious or pass away.  Which is probably not true at all.  

 

We all want to know how much time it will take.  The honest answer is no-one knows.  67 million people will not voluntarily continue to stay away from family and friends, non-cohabitant partners and other social interactions for an extended period.  What we do not want is for the public to become so impatient that they take matters into their own hands and simply abandon government advice through boredom and disenchantment.  

 

The "senior figures" need to offer us more than just statistics and the hope of jam tomorrow.  Because they cannot tell us when tomorrow will arrive.  

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2 hours ago, Ouroborus said:

 

You're made my point for me.  Until now, proposed vaccines were the subject of countless rounds of theoretical testing before moving onto live animal tests and years in the future, humans.

 

I work for the frontline NHS.  Today we received a new directive on 'disposable' ppe.  Turns out it's not as disposable as it was a year ago.  The risk to humans from reuse, not as bad as was thought.  

 

 

I'm debating posting this, but with huge respect - yes, I clapped at 8.0 tonight - the bit that I've highlighted in bold doesn't wash with me, if you will excuse the pun.  This change in advice was simply too convenient when there is clearly a shortage.

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It's the same over here - 'you don't need masks, not effective'. Why? Because there weren't any!! Instead of being candid about it and saying 'there is a problem and stay indoors until it can be sorted', it's been orders and counter-orders for the last five weeks.

 

I'm afraid 'senior figures' are not going to come out well from all of this. As mentioned above, probably opinions expounded by those in senior positions (advisors) never having done 'proper' work in the field that they are supposed to be the 'experts'.

 

Not to particularly want to douse everyone in cold water regarding the lockdown, keep an eye on China as there appears to be another hotspot brewing in the Harbin area. It was mentioned on the lunchtime news today here.

 

Keep safe and good luck,

 

Philip

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11 hours ago, 'CHARD said:

I'm debating posting this, but with huge respect - yes, I clapped at 8.0 tonight - the bit that I've highlighted in bold doesn't wash with me, if you will excuse the pun.  This change in advice was simply too convenient when there is clearly a shortage.

 

Possibly, but there might also be a cost implication. It's far cheaper to throw stuff away than pay someone to clean it normally, and we all know that cost matters. 

11 hours ago, Gwiwer said:

I find it hard to trust the "experts" when the fall-back position is "we don't know" and some messages appear to contradict others.

 

That's probably because they don't know all the answers. Science is still investigating this and won't have results for months, possibly years. There is evidence that huge numbers of people are infected, but show no symptoms and that we all fight the virus in different ways.

 

Ultimately, this is a balancing act for politicians. You can keep everyone locked up and watch the economy collapse or accept that some will get ill (some specialists say cancer will ultimately kill more people than Covid due to people simply not going to hospital) and let people go back to work, albeit with a new set of H&S conditions. The supermarkets have adapted, it looks like DIY sheds will be next. Some factories will re-open next week. This virus will be with us forever, we have to learn to live with it.

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13 hours ago, Ouroborus said:

Same goes for the vaccine - in the old world, no way should it be ready for human trials.  But that was then.  With such a contagious virus, risk aversion has gone out of window, pressure on to stop people dying and get economies working. 

 

It was explained by the person in charge of the Oxford trial that the procedure is normally to take a step, then apply for funding to take the next one, do that, apply for funding etc. All this takes loads of time.

 

This time the money is in place and many steps can be carried out in parallel. This risks money being wasted, but as you say, that's not so important now. Hence you can come out of the trials ready to manufacture the next day rather than being ready to fill in a form to apply for money.

 

Now, if you will excuser me, I'm off to eat a Donald Trump approved Imperial Leather sandwich with a cup of Matey to wash it down.

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We are in a virtual world wide war situation with an invisible but potent enemy. Sometimes well established rules need to be broken, risks taken. 

 

Look at this for NHS improvisation.

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1273200/uk-coronavirus-news-boris-johnson-ventilators-covid-19-warrington-hospital-NHS-hancock

 

When hospital PPE was in good supply, OK to use once. Different situation at the moment. washed & cleaned re-sanitised (etc) PPE is better than none - at the moment.

 

Lose local shops / pubs / etc - unfortunately yes. When we rebuild our economy we also really need to seriously look at our supply chains for essential goods and services (like PPE etc). Build factories here and source it locally. We (in the west) need to seriously ramp down dependance on China. Trump is right on this one.

 

I also don't wear the oft quoted argument that goods made here in the UK will be double the price (and more).  How do you think the world's many Billionaires get their money ?.  A top range £1000+ iphone made in China for what ? £200 - could be made in the USA for perhaps £300-400 - that's still £600 profit. Too much corporate greed in the world - THAT must change.

 

Brit15

 

 

 

 

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12 hours ago, Gwiwer said:

 

To an extent.  

 

But to what extent?  

 

Of the "senior figures" whose comments I see - which is almost certainly not the full picture - I am led to an impression of "worst-case scenario" being given throughout.  At one stage we were being prepared for 250,000 deaths in the UK.  It looks as though we shall be nearer 10% of that.  Which is far too many but nowhere near what was once being predicted by the "senior figures".  There are some signs of preparation for a slight easing of movements.  Staff are returning to work in small numbers in some cases.  Fresh coffee was being roasted at the Nero plant today (which, I grant, may be specifically intended for medical staff at dedicated outlets) and more railway staff are being returned to duty, which is the industry I know most about directly, having been stood down a month ago.  

 

There might be some medium-term impact on social interaction but the government is also keenly aware that the nation cannot survive forever under lockdown nor can folk avoid bankruptcy if businesses are forcibly closed for many months.  There is already some social relaxation apparent in the London area where according to some "senior figures" the peak is well past, hospital admissions well down with plenty of spare capacity and infection rates are now very low.  People are happy to talk (usually at a respectful distance) rather than behave like scared rabbits and swerving like dodgem cars to avoid each other.  

 

The messages are mixed.  Suggestions of a long-term lockdown but equally a return to some schooling during June.  No public places open until at least the end of the year but hints that some may be open sooner rather than later and a determination in some quarters to avoid dumping millions of gallons of beer if some form of alternative to crowded pubs can be arranged.  

 

I find it hard to trust the "experts" when the fall-back position is "we don't know" and some messages appear to contradict others.  I certainly find it unhelpful to have doom-and-gloom statistics poured out when there should be some good news as well.  The UK government ceased publishing the number of "recovered" cases some time ago which is manipulating the statistics to the extent that it gives - arguably - a far worse impression than is actually the case because it appears that no-one has recovered.  By association therefore it appears that all infected persons in the UK either remain infectious or pass away.  Which is probably not true at all.  

 

We all want to know how much time it will take.  The honest answer is no-one knows.  67 million people will not voluntarily continue to stay away from family and friends, non-cohabitant partners and other social interactions for an extended period.  What we do not want is for the public to become so impatient that they take matters into their own hands and simply abandon government advice through boredom and disenchantment.  

 

The "senior figures" need to offer us more than just statistics and the hope of jam tomorrow.  Because they cannot tell us when tomorrow will arrive.  

 

Selective memory is a wonderful thing.  We were told if we do nothing there could be 250,000 deaths.

We did something.  The number is different.

 

It is easy to dish the experts.  Just remember some of the experts are the ones who studied 5-7 years and are working 72+hours a week in our hospitals.   Some of the experts have converted car making plant into medical equipment plant.  And some of the experts do have quite a good view of the future and know that if that were made public in one shot, the public could not take it.  Chaos would ensue and we would be back on track for 250,000 deaths.

 

rant over

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It's all a very difficult balancing act for those in charge - reduce the lockdown too soon, or too quickly, and the hospitals are overwhelmed and the death rate shoots up. Do it too late, however, and thousands of businesses go bust and the economy collapses, probably leading to even more deaths.

 

I've seen predictions that, for example, pubs and restaurants won't be able to open until the end of the year. I think I can be fairly confident in saying that most of them won't open at the end of the year - they'll either open in July/August or never again. Same goes for hotels, guesthouses, heritage railways, virtually everything in the leisure and tourism industry - the entire economy of many coastal towns. Similarly the food production industry needs to get back into full swing asap if we're not to have massive shortages in the autumn/winter - a shortage of food supply, leading to rising prices, combined with mass unemployment would lead to serious trouble...

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19 hours ago, Gwiwer said:

 

To an extent.  

 

But to what extent?  

 

Of the "senior figures" whose comments I see - which is almost certainly not the full picture - I am led to an impression of "worst-case scenario" being given throughout.  At one stage we were being prepared for 250,000 deaths in the UK.  It looks as though we shall be nearer 10% of that.  Which is far too many but nowhere near what was once being predicted by the "senior figures".  There are some signs of preparation for a slight easing of movements.  Staff are returning to work in small numbers in some cases.  Fresh coffee was being roasted at the Nero plant today (which, I grant, may be specifically intended for medical staff at dedicated outlets) and more railway staff are being returned to duty, which is the industry I know most about directly, having been stood down a month ago.  

 

There might be some medium-term impact on social interaction but the government is also keenly aware that the nation cannot survive forever under lockdown nor can folk avoid bankruptcy if businesses are forcibly closed for many months.  There is already some social relaxation apparent in the London area where according to some "senior figures" the peak is well past, hospital admissions well down with plenty of spare capacity and infection rates are now very low.  People are happy to talk (usually at a respectful distance) rather than behave like scared rabbits and swerving like dodgem cars to avoid each other.  

 

The messages are mixed.  Suggestions of a long-term lockdown but equally a return to some schooling during June.  No public places open until at least the end of the year but hints that some may be open sooner rather than later and a determination in some quarters to avoid dumping millions of gallons of beer if some form of alternative to crowded pubs can be arranged.  

 

I find it hard to trust the "experts" when the fall-back position is "we don't know" and some messages appear to contradict others.  I certainly find it unhelpful to have doom-and-gloom statistics poured out when there should be some good news as well.  The UK government ceased publishing the number of "recovered" cases some time ago which is manipulating the statistics to the extent that it gives - arguably - a far worse impression than is actually the case because it appears that no-one has recovered.  By association therefore it appears that all infected persons in the UK either remain infectious or pass away.  Which is probably not true at all.  

 

We all want to know how much time it will take.  The honest answer is no-one knows.  67 million people will not voluntarily continue to stay away from family and friends, non-cohabitant partners and other social interactions for an extended period.  What we do not want is for the public to become so impatient that they take matters into their own hands and simply abandon government advice through boredom and disenchantment.  

 

The "senior figures" need to offer us more than just statistics and the hope of jam tomorrow.  Because they cannot tell us when tomorrow will arrive.  

 

Bearing in mind the UK Hospital death count is now at 19.5K already, plus Care Home Deaths and non-Hospital CV Deaths on top it is reasonable to estimate that we are already very close to the 25K (10%) mark.  And this is just the "first wave", with no doubt (many?) more still to come in the future.  Added to which there will be many, many "indirect" deaths due to CV because of interruptions to important medical treatments (e.g. Chemotherapy) as well as people not seeking treatment, tests etc. that would normally be routine.

 

Me?  If an expert doesn't know the answer then I'd much rather he say that, as opposed to guessing/making it up etc. - that helps no-one.  I'll happily keep away from family and friends for as long as it takes if that is what is needed in order to keep them safe, and me safe.

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11 hours ago, Andy Hayter said:

 

...

 

It is easy to dish the experts.  Just remember some of the experts are the ones who studied 5-7 years and are working 72+hours a week in our hospitals.   Some of the experts have converted car making plant into medical equipment plant.  And some of the experts do have quite a good view of the future and know that if that were made public in one shot, the public could not take it.  Chaos would ensue and we would be back on track for 250,000 deaths.

 

...

 

Yes ... but remember too that some of those 'experts' work for a national Quango that made a complete hash of contingency planning for a type of contingency that has for a decade or so been increasingly apparent would be happening in the fairly near future; and that, apparently, is so very determined to keep everything under such tight in-house control it has been sitting for weeks on offers from British manufacturers to produce PPE in quantity, without making any meaningful response to them - to the extent those firms are either contacting their local NHS Trusts and Care Homes direct (and having their hands snapped-off) or else sending the stuff they've made for export.

 

At times like this I'm reminded of the etymology of the word 'expert', as derived some decades ago during the development programme for the Harrier Jump Jet:  "Ex" - meaning "has-been", and "Spurt" - meaning "a drip under pressure".  Except that now it isn't so funny ...

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So if we don't trust, or even listen to, the experts (while accepting and understanding that, just like the rest of us, they are fallible human beings who are without the gift of clairvoyance), who do we trust........Donald Trump perhaps ?

 

 

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On 20/04/2020 at 19:09, Joseph_Pestell said:

 

They may need to be included in your income calculation. But, if they are doing what they are supposed to, replacing income lost, they won't lead to a tax liability.

They should be declared as INCOME, but they are not VAT liable on the Quarterly Returns.  So there could be a Tax liability at the end of the 2020/21 Tax Year. Time to ceck with your Accountant, as ours was clear on reporting Income at this time as a Grant rather than any of the Loan schemes presently being offered.

 

If Saleries are supported through Furlough they too have to be with the Balance Sheet, but different Rules may well apply if an Employer uplifts the 80% to 100% of 'normal salary' level. 

 

Then there is the issue of NI and Pension payments.  In sense whilst the Government has covered the Salary they not 'adjusted' for these payments, so an Employer may well still have to contribute.

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On 24/04/2020 at 22:10, Willie Whizz said:

Yes ... but remember too that some of those 'experts' work for a national Quango that made a complete hash of contingency planning.

 

National Quango? What on earth are you talking about?

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On 20/04/2020 at 21:44, andyman7 said:

High street retail has been in trouble for years, with high fixed costs and loss of footfall to online. I suspect that the longer term effects of the current crisis will in many cases be where an already present trend is accelerated - e.g. pubs losing business, people working from home etc.

 

However, quite frankly, for many areas the high street model shop as a local facility has already long ceased to be. Where I live in South London there is not a single model shop or department store with a model section left, nor has there been for some years.  The nearest shops are Jane's Trains in Tooting, Kent Garden Railways in Orpington or Ian Allan at Waterloo - every single one is the best part of an hour away.  Therefore, whilst I would in no way underestimate the difficulties of the situation, I consider any functional retail model shop these days to be an exception (and yes, I do my best to support them!)

Further to my post above I have discovered that Kent Graden Railways has decided not to reopen their retail premises and will be mail order and shows (when the restart) only. I assume this means they will no longer get new Bachmann releases?

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It's hardly surprising retailers are suffering in places like London, lets face it many people have trouble finding room for somewhere to sleep let alone for a layout, nor is there anywhere to sail an RC boat or fly a drone or plane.  

In addition people such as myself, with years of breathing issues,  won't risk using public transport, actually again, that's  a mis nomer, I mean Mass Transport, for a long long time to come. If I can't drive there and park within 100 yards I don't go. I like the model shop in Grosmont. 30 minutes parking right outside, OK its a 240 mile trip but its always a pleasure.

You can't blame the government for changing advice when the "scientific community" both brings out conflicting advice and can't agree among themselves.  You can blame the government for expecting people to use "Common Sense," as large numbers of people believe "Common Sense" like the truth is a precious commodity which should be used sparingly, (or not at all).

Its people like me, time wasters, who browse in model shops and buy on eBay who suffer the loss of local model shops worst, I have even bought stuff on eBay from Cheltenham Model Centre about 10 miles away as the crow flies.  If we had actually bought stuff over the counter before the lock down maybe the retailers would have felt like carrying on.

May be the future is under the counter sales.  A rain swept car park, somewhere in Sarf Lunnon late at night. Couple of dodgy geezers with a high powered van, "Psst wanna buy a Bacchy 221?"   "DCC sound the works?"

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45 minutes ago, DavidCBroad said:

It's hardly surprising retailers are suffering in places like London, lets face it many people have trouble finding room for somewhere to sleep let alone for a layout, nor is there anywhere to sail an RC boat or fly a drone or plane.  

In addition people such as myself, with years of breathing issues,  won't risk using public transport, actually again, that's  a mis nomer, I mean Mass Transport, for a long long time to come. If I can't drive there and park within 100 yards I don't go. I like the model shop in Grosmont. 30 minutes parking right outside, OK its a 240 mile trip but its always a pleasure.

You can't blame the government for changing advice when the "scientific community" both brings out conflicting advice and can't agree among themselves.  You can blame the government for expecting people to use "Common Sense," as large numbers of people believe "Common Sense" like the truth is a precious commodity which should be used sparingly, (or not at all).

Its people like me, time wasters, who browse in model shops and buy on eBay who suffer the loss of local model shops worst, I have even bought stuff on eBay from Cheltenham Model Centre about 10 miles away as the crow flies.  If we had actually bought stuff over the counter before the lock down maybe the retailers would have felt like carrying on.

May be the future is under the counter sales.  A rain swept car park, somewhere in Sarf Lunnon late at night. Couple of dodgy geezers with a high powered van, "Psst wanna buy a Bacchy 221?"   "DCC sound the works?"

I think you'll find its the local model shop owners who are forced to close that suffer the worst.

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Half-full said:

I think you'll find its the local model shop owners who are forced to close that suffer the worst.

 

 

 

Indeed. It seems someone's common sense compass has been degaussed.

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11 minutes ago, bartram108 said:

Why on earth won't  manufacturers supply retailers with no physical outlet. Can beggars really be choosers?

1.  Terms of Trade.  Take 'em or leave 'em. 

2.  They must feel there are sufficient alternative retail outlets available.  

 

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42 minutes ago, bartram108 said:

Why on earth won't  manufacturers supply retailers with no physical outlet. Can beggars really be choosers?

 

Would you buy things from a "retailer" with no physical outlet and is just a PO Box number run from somebody's bedroom? Usually using stock bought from other retailers (which is now officially used and legally with no warranty).

 

That's what they are trying to stop. Not legitimate retailers.

 

 

 

Jason

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3 hours ago, andyman7 said:

Further to my post above I have discovered that Kent Graden Railways has decided not to reopen their retail premises and will be mail order and shows (when the restart) only. I assume this means they will no longer get new Bachmann releases?

I looked to buy some IOM G gauge stock from KGR, did not even bother to reply to my mail. Must not need to business.

 

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