Post Covid19 (astrologers need not apply)

[Nearholmer]

The "silver lining" thread and the "precautions at supermarkets" thread are giving rise to discussion about how we will emerge from lock-down, and how things might be different afterwards, so I thought it might be worth giving these subjects their own thread.

 

The aviation conundrum is part of this, as is how the release of lock-down is being dealt with in different countries.

 

More broadly, in what ways do we expect life to be different in 1, 2, 5 etc years time from how it was pre-COVID? 
 

[I have decided to absent myself from this thread because it has increasingly dfrifted in a ‘wild and woolly’ direction that I don’t feel comfortable with.]

 

Edited May 8, 2020 by Nearholmer

[Nearholmer]

You're probably right there.

 

My similarly jaded view of most futurology is that the future never turns out to be quite as bad as the most dystopian predictions, and certainly nothing like as good as the most utopian, although thinking about it, depending upon where you stand in time, where you stand physically, and who you are, the first part of this is possibly overly optimistic.

[APOLLO]

Aviation is certainly being hammered (massive job losses Ryan Air / British Airways / Virgin etc) and will be a different animal when it eventually returns - a lot depends on easing social distancing - Airports & airplanes are not designed for this - the whole industry is (was) based on planes being as full as possible.

 

Rail Tube & Bus we will have to see - again not designed for social distancing.

 

Oil industry is also in the doldrums but will return, perhaps not to pre covid normality.

 

Shops schools etc to reopen "soon" - but with new restrictions, social distancing etc.

 

Pubs clubs etc probably last to reopen - but perhaps some never will.

 

Continued social distancing is the key to a new normality - who (NOT the W.H.O.) knows what will be the rules for this in 1,2, 5 years time or how this virus will fade / re-occur / mutate over time.

 

Stay safe folks.

 

Brit15

 

 

[Reorte]

There will be significant consequences from the economic fallout but aside from that (which is a pretty large thing to say "aside" to admittedly) I'd be very surprised if everything isn't back to the way it was as soon as restrictions and guidelines are lifted. I really can't see people carrying on keeping apart for years.

[Nearholmer]

9 minutes ago, Lantavian said:

There's a lot of wishful thinking at the moment among political writers, who seem to think that the disruption caused by coronavirus will result in their favourite policies being adopted.

 

The combination of "thought brewing" by intellectuals and the experiences undergone by many ordinary people did lead to some quite significant shifts in some countries post-WW2, so some of that wishful thinking might make it into reality.

[jonny777]

I think there might be more reluctance to venture into crowds by older generations. Certainly, I would think twice about standing too close to others in a group gathering. 

 

I suppose it depends entirely on how the virus behaves through the summer. If the infection rate drops to a very small figure, then maybe I would not be so paranoid about it; but if there is a second wave later in the year as the weather gets colder, then I would probably self isolate whether it was enforced or not. 

 

The problem is that between 1000 and 1500 people die every day anyway, from all manner of diseases, accidents, overdoses, etc. Who knows how many of the covid deaths would have occurred (due to underlying conditions) anyway, but maybe not quite as rapidly?

[jjb1970]

17 minutes ago, Lantavian said:

There's a lot of wishful thinking at the moment among political writers, who seem to think that the disruption caused by coronavirus will result in their favourite policies being adopted.

 

I really don't like the tone of the Guardian's coverage; there is too much "gleeful miserabilism".

 

I completely agree.

 

I think governments must be held to account by the media and one of the key roles of the media is to question and challenge. However I think the Guardian's current coverage is less about holding the government to account and more about gleeful miserabilism and just getting the boot in on the government in a way which is seriously undermining their credibility. If Boris Johnson invented a cure for cancer the Guardian headline would probably be some sort of rant about job losses among oncologists and cancer treatment units etc.

[jjb1970]

In terms of the question, I hope it will accelerate the transition to a carbon neutral economy but I suspect we will see far fewer changes than some are predicting in the short - mid term. 

[Hroth]

21 minutes ago, APOLLO said:

Shops schools etc to reopen "soon" - but with new restrictions, social distancing etc.

 

Facemasks, even the fabric home-made ones to a suitable pattern, will tend to reduce airborn distribution considerably so together with mandatory masking in public, social distancing might be reduced to make it easier for groups to "mingle" in shops and schools, as its mainly to reduce physical contact. 

 

With facemasks, public transport in general might be able to function with 50% reductions (ie 1 passenger to 2 seats spacing)

 

Aviation is a different matter, considering that the cabin air is recycled and not always adequately filtered.

[Rivercider]

I would expect a number of small independant shops and cafes will never re-open.

A lot of high streets will never be the same. In addition to other problems we have an Argos and Bright House in our high street . They will join Samuels Jewellers and M&S among the stores that are already empty.

 

I suspect a number of lower league sporting clubs might not survive, along with small museums, social clubs, and other attractions. I can also see unfortunatley a number of pubs will have already called last orders for the final time.

 

cheers (not)

[jjb1970]

The really long lasting effects will be part of bigger macro-level trends and more an acceleration than a real change. Retail is one example, the shift to on-line shopping has been going on for years and in our own little model bubble mail order was already hammering model shops long before the Internet. I think we will see more inward looking societies but again there has been a move to push back against globalisation for a while (it's not much of a secret that some of the policies being advocated to reduce emissions are as much about protectionism as about saving the world). The difficulty facing the world in adjusting to a new geo-political reality in which China and Asia are central goes back many years and some of the rhetoric about China and worries about Chinese influence are part of that bigger picture too.

[Reorte]

26 minutes ago, jjb1970 said:

The really long lasting effects will be part of bigger macro-level trends and more an acceleration than a real change. Retail is one example, the shift to on-line shopping has been going on for years and in our own little model bubble mail order was already hammering model shops long before the Internet.

 

I'd hope that after a period of being stuck at home the appeal of trying to organise things so you never have to leave your house will have evaporated, but I won't hold my breath.

[Nearholmer]

1 hour ago, Lantavian said:

Time to buy shares in cabin air filter makers?

 

Time to invent a retro-fit system that allows individual air-supply, via individual filter/oxygenation packs? Presumably some miltary aircraft are fitted with individual systems, and presumably some highly protective equipment like diving suits, fire-brigade kit etc include at least partly transferable technology. Probably bulky and high-maintenance, so likely to reduce the number of passengers and add costs, making air travel whoppingly expensive, but maybe a necessity in the short-term?

 

Or, a requirement to present a current medical certificate demonstrating freedom from a range of transmissible bugs, including the dreaded? Also expensive, but shifts the expense and trouble away from the flight provider and onto the potential passenger.

[Ohmisterporter]

Perhaps it is the natural pessimism in me but when this is over I expect a flood of lawyers to put in claims for compensation for bereaved clients. Draining away more money and resources from the NHS.

[Hroth]

3 minutes ago, Ohmisterporter said:

Perhaps it is the natural pessimism in me but when this is over I expect a flood of lawyers to put in claims for compensation for bereaved clients. Draining away more money and resources from the NHS.

 

Given the premise that this is the Revolution, perhaps we could take the Shakesperian solution to over-eager lawyers?

 

Not all, just the ambulance chasers....

[jjb1970]

29 minutes ago, Reorte said:

 

I'd hope that after a period of being stuck at home the appeal of trying to organise things so you never have to leave your house will have evaporated, but I won't hold my breath.

 

I think retail will see a big bounce initially as everyone will want out of their homes and many will flock to the shops, but following that bounce I suspect many will actually prefer on-line ordering and will use their free time and outdoors visits for things other than shopping. 

I think some retail segments will do OK, the luxury goods segment where shopping is part of the experience and where some enjoy it (although even there the size of saving on-line means many will just order on-line), clothes where people like to browse and try things on will retain a high street presence (even though on-line sellers offer returns) and I think food as although home delivery is liked by many a lot of others like to see the food and select fruit and vegetables etc.

I think the segments really being hammered have already largely withdrawn from the high street, such as hobby shops, electrical goods and such like. The next big one may be banking. I think governments want a cashless society for a number of reasons and it would be agreeable to the banking segment to have everyone using their on-line banking services and smart payment tools etc. Personally I'm not in favour of it, well I'm perfectly happy with these things being available for those who want them, but I still see a place for cash and being able to talk to somebody in a branch.

[jjb1970]

18 minutes ago, Ohmisterporter said:

Perhaps it is the natural pessimism in me but when this is over I expect a flood of lawyers to put in claims for compensation for bereaved clients. Draining away more money and resources from the NHS.

 

This one is always difficult. I'm not supportive of vexatious and nuisance claims, but I also think that victims of medical negligence should be compensated. 

[Oldddudders]

I appreciate the "big picture" intent of this thread, of course, but the micro-effects can be a bit challenging, too. I live in rural France, about 120 miles SW of Paris, and actually about 30 miles NE of Le Mans. One of the local villages, hardly a town, has a factory, employing at least 200 people, to judge from the car park. The factory makes something important for Airbus Industrie. Who? They and Boeing now find themselves selling to a market glutted, I assume, with lease-defaulted-but-serviceable aircraft, in which new orders have suddenly dried up. I imagine hard times are ahead for the factory, and thus for a workforce that has helped make the village a prosperous place. Will it still need two bakeries? Two bars? 

 

The human cost of Covid-19 is not measured only in "unnecessary" deaths, tragic though each one is. It is also in life-changing effects such as the family income disappearing, and we can all imagine the chill that will send through society worldwide. 

[Reorte]

Just now, jjb1970 said:

 

I think retail will see a big bounce initially as everyone will want out of their homes and many will flock to the shops, but following that bounce I suspect many will actually prefer on-line ordering and will use their free time and outdoors visits for things other than shopping. 

I think some retail segments will do OK, the luxury goods segment where shopping is part of the experience and where some enjoy it (although even there the size of saving on-line means many will just order on-line), clothes where people like to browse and try things on will retain a high street presence (even though on-line sellers offer returns) and I think food as although home delivery is liked by many a lot of others like to see the food and select fruit and vegetables etc.

I think the segments really being hammered have already largely withdrawn from the high street, such as hobby shops, electrical goods and such like. The next big one may be banking. I think governments want a cashless society for a number of reasons and it would be agreeable to the banking segment to have everyone using their on-line banking services and smart payment tools etc. Personally I'm not in favour of it, well I'm perfectly happy with these things being available for those who want them, but I still see a place for cash and being able to talk to somebody in a branch.

 

Could well be, sounds plausible enough, although pessimistic; I certainly don't see any of that as more than another negative but likely vision of the future (and a pretty close one too). I know I'm a miserable so-and-so a lot of the time but it would be nice to have my pessimism proved wrong for once!

[PenrithBeacon]

Looking at this from a very personal viewpoint the only 'crowds' I mingle in are at Tesco, Model Railway Shows and Air Displays. Tesco is essential the other two aren't. Providing I feel safe then I'll attend otherwise not but it all depends on the progress of the disease and ways of coping.

I've had face masks on order from Amazon and eBay only to have the orders cancelled by suppliers at short notice, but keep on ordering on the assumption that one day I'll get lucky. I shall download the 'distancing' app when it's available and I'm looking apprehensively at progress because I might have to cancel the B&B booking in July, so that will mean no summer holiday this year.

 Good news is that I've managed to get a HL Quadriver gearbox to work, really pleased about that otherwise a bit low.

Agree with the comments about the Guardian, I've been reading it since the mid-sixties and can never remember a time when it was persistently negative all the more so because it now confuses fact and opinion. 'Comment is Free, but Facts are Sacred',  the newspaper is losing it's heritage.

Regards

[spikey]

To my way of thinking, life's going to be very interesting indeed from now on.  Quite possibly I'm just failing to grasp some elementary logic, but if TPTB are on the verge of "easing the lockdown" and getting things back to some kind of normal, isn't that a sure-fire way of kicking off Round Two of Covid-19?  Expose the herd to the disease again, see infections rise, re-impose lockdown, and see another few tens of thousands of the weakest perish?  Wouldn't that amount to a (hopefully-)controlled cull?

[woodenhead]

2 hours ago, APOLLO said:

Aviation is certainly being hammered (massive job losses Ryan Air / British Airways / Virgin etc) and will be a different animal when it eventually returns - a lot depends on easing social distancing - Airports & airplanes are not designed for this - the whole industry is (was) based on planes being as full as possible.

 

Rail Tube & Bus we will have to see - again not designed for social distancing.

 

Oil industry is also in the doldrums but will return, perhaps not to pre covid normality.

 

Shops schools etc to reopen "soon" - but with new restrictions, social distancing etc.

 

Pubs clubs etc probably last to reopen - but perhaps some never will.

 

Continued social distancing is the key to a new normality - who (NOT the W.H.O.) knows what will be the rules for this in 1,2, 5 years time or how this virus will fade / re-occur / mutate over time.

 

Stay safe folks.

 

Brit15

 

 

The retirement of big planes will accelerate and we won't see many 747s or A380s flying.  Airlines will work out how to fill planes safely, masks may be the norm in the short term and perhaps some other measures on board to minimise spread of germs.  I wonder where the extra runway for Heathrow stands now, Gatwick suddenly looks like it will have quite a few slots available and Heathrow will not be so busy for a few years.

 

Other forms of transport will return to normal with masks short term and then as normal afterwards - but having made the switch I do think more people will work from home more often reducing demand overall for public transport - a headache for planners against a picture of ever rising demand.  Barclays Bank's views on big offices has certainly changed as they see profit in ditching central London office space for local hubs and homeworking.

 

Shops, schools will return to normal over time

 

Pubs and clubs - social distancing will soon be lost at the bottom of an empty glass or two.  Given the actual number of deaths in people below the age of 45 the pub / club generation won't be so concerned

 

 

Edited May 6, 2020 by woodenhead

[Reorte]

22 minutes ago, spikey said:

To my way of thinking, life's going to be very interesting indeed from now on.  Quite possibly I'm just failing to grasp some elementary logic, but if TPTB are on the verge of "easing the lockdown" and getting things back to some kind of normal, isn't that a sure-fire way of kicking off Round Two of Covid-19?  Expose the herd to the disease again, see infections rise, re-impose lockdown, and see another few tens of thousands of the weakest perish?  Wouldn't that amount to a (hopefully-)controlled cull?

 

Some degree of easing doesn't imply anything close to back to normal; it seems mostly designed to get as many people back to work as possible (people who are also generally - although I appreciate there are plenty of exceptions - at lower risk). The country simply can't afford to keep paying people to stay at home for long. Now you could well argue that that's to a fair degree unnecessary because we can manage all we need without those people working but there's probably a fair chunk of necessary stuff that can be put off for a while, but mostly because we've built everything around a system that requires much more economic activity than that to keep the wheels oiled. If that's to change, without causing massive suffering, it needs to be a long, slow process.

[Joseph_Pestell]

4 minutes ago, woodenhead said:

The retirement of big planes will accelerate and we won't see many 747s or A380s flying.  Airlines will work out how to fill planes safely, masks may be the norm in the short term and perhaps some other measures on board to minimise spread of germs.  I wonder where the extra runway for Heathrow stands now, Gatwick suddenly looks like it will have quite a few slots available and Heathrow will not be so busy for a few years.

 

 

 

Most of the pundits seem to think that air travel will be back to current levels by 2023. It will take a lot longer than that to build the third runway.

 

I think that Gatwick will be able to attract some airlines at the expense of Stansted and some of the regionals.

[woodenhead]

2 hours ago, Lantavian said:

I do think that the outbreak will accelerate the demise of one-party politics in the People's Republic of China. But I might also be guilty of wishful thinking without foundation.

 

 

All depends how the rest of the world treats China. The intelligence data recently released suggesting China was stockpiling PPE and medicines before letting the world know the Covid was indeed infectious between humans looks rather damning of the Party but is probably little different to Chernobyl with Russia -  "Comrade where is this cloud of radiation coming from?" "No idea capitalist pig, nothing to see here"......."Perhaps we'd had a small leak, but it's nothing serious"......."help"

 

In truth the West will publicly make the right noises about China but we will continue to depend heavily on the Party which will keep them in power longer.