Revolution trains 3rd Facebook live - Possible new models to be announced

[Guest Half-full]

36 minutes ago, njee20 said:

Edit: it's also interesting that Revolution's experience differs from Rapido - modern stuff sells well, transition era is a much harder sell, for whatever reason.

 

Whenever I've looked at going N, its always been diesel/elec traction that's drawn me.  I've always found N gauge steam loco's looks can be spoiled by the conrods/valve gear being overscale (I guess by necessity?)  I heard people say that modern era N is favoured due to the fact you can run scale length trains, but you can do that with steam era too.

 

I dont know what it is, but I, personally, think modern era suits N gauge better

[njee20]

The first half of your post reads as "N gauge suits the modern scene", but then you say "modern suits N gauge", which are subtly different. I'm not sure either are necessarily borne out in the market, but I think it's easy to look at your chosen era (modern in my case) and think "X, Y and Z are missing from my chosen era, steam/transition/modern image modellers have it far better with their choice". 

As you say I don't see why being able to run scale length trains would be a particular advantage for modern; I've never heard that cited. Indeed most modern freights are so long that actually scale length is hard unless you have a massive layout.

[mdvle]

44 minutes ago, njee20 said:

I disagree with most of what you say. You have no idea whatsoever how different company's business models are structured. I'm pretty confident Revolution seek to amortise their tooling cost in a single production run, but whether that's the same for every brand is a total unknown. I'd be surprised if it were the case for all models/brands.

 

The model train market is consistent - it is about spending significant sums of money ($100,000+) in create a product, a sum of money that you have spent typically 12 to 18 months (or more) before you get paid (remember, for companies like Dapol, Bachmann, Hornby where most of their sales are through retail, retail typically gets 30 to 60 days to pay after receiving product, yet the tool makers, CAD drawers, factory, etc. all get paid well before that money comes in).

 

And lenders view you suspiciously, as you essentially have no assets (your money is sunk into large blobs of metal that are in China), so you aren't going to get the preferential lending treatment.  And with good reason - note that creditors haven't been able to turn the "assets" of either DJM or Little Loco Company into cash so far that has been public.

 

Consider the ongoing financial problems at Hornby, that Bachmann's parent Kader just went through financial problems (and part of their solution was to force price hikes on Bachmann), and that mainland European train makers have something of a history of financial issues and it is clear that regardless of company this is a business that is driven by cash flow - and that means aiming to pay the costs on the first run of every single project.  Because of course you won't always succeed, you will lose money on some projects (oops - duplicate model announced, or bad timing, or bad luck) so you can't be planning on paying off that debt on a second run that typically won't happen for x years after the first release.  Or your factory in China closes so you your second run has been delayed by a year or more as you desperately try and find a new factory (the process of which itself costs you even more money)

 

44 minutes ago, njee20 said:

And secondly why would announcing a new project inherently mean something else is delayed?

 

There are 24 hours in a day, 168 hours in a week, roughly 5040 hours in a month, etc.

 

That inherently means there is a limit to the number of actual announced projects, and potential future projects, that any model company can have on the go at any one time - more so in the case of a small 2 person company that isn't a full time job.

 

So that means, in the context of this topic, that any work done to possibly bring a Class 89 to N is time that could have been spent on something else that people want.

 

Now, if Revolution feel a Class 89 in N could be successful then they could view that time spent as a good choice for the company, but if there are other projects that they feel could have a better chance of success then work on a Class 89 would be "stealing" time for those projects, thus delaying them.

 

44 minutes ago, njee20 said:

Yes ok, if they announce it as their next (as in due for delivery next) model then perhaps, but they can do things sequentially; they don't deliver one model and then announce another, they've got an inventory of 10 or so models. They've already said they're announcing a new product on their next FB Live, I don't see how that would mean a delay to anything else.

 

So, the 2 factories that Rapido are partnered with in China are looking for new clients.

 

Anyone who thinks this is all so easy and takes up next to no time, here is your opportunity to become a model train maker and you can then demonstrate to us how the finite number of available hours in a month won't apply to you.

 

44 minutes ago, njee20 said:

The effort is also quite "peaky" - there is a huge amount of initial R&D, then not much effort through tooling/production and then a huge amount of effort again in despatching orders once they arrive.

 

Yes, a bunch of that work is handed off to others (at the cost of money), but that doesn't mean Revolution have nothing to do - they don't hand over CAD drawings and then x months later get the final product - at various stages they will need to evaluate samples which is detail work and time consuming (going over every part of the model to make sure it is all correct, creating lists of corrections to be sent to the factory, etc.), make sure the paint samples are correct, with list of corrections to the factory, and I am sure a bunch of other things we as consumers are unaware of.

 

44 minutes ago, njee20 said:

Edit: it's also interesting that Revolution's experience differs from Rapido - modern stuff sells well, transition era is a much harder sell, for whatever reason.

 

Having only 1 transition era product for one.

 

But the overall point remains - the number of people participating on social media with their hobby is a very small percentage of the overall market, and thus is not an accurate representation of the market.

[mdvle]

2 hours ago, Lantavian said:

I guess you haven't heard of NPV.

 

An economic theory doesn't make a profitable company, just ask Hornby.

 

 

[Roy L S]

18 minutes ago, mdvle said:

 

Having only 1 transition era product for one.

 

 

There have been two transition products, the Class B Tanker and the Sturgeon.

[mdvle]

7 minutes ago, Roy L S said:

There have been two transition products, the Class B Tanker and the Sturgeon.

 

Not strictly transition era models though as they lasted into following eras, which increases their market potential.

 

On the other hand the 56xx is definitely out of era for most of the existing Revolution customer base, and is likely of interest to a customer base that largely is ignoring social media and getting most of their info from either magazines or even more likely their favourite dealer.

[Guest Half-full]

2 hours ago, njee20 said:

The first half of your post reads as "N gauge suits the modern scene", but then you say "modern suits N gauge", which are subtly different. I'm not sure either are necessarily borne out in the market, but I think it's easy to look at your chosen era (modern in my case) and think "X, Y and Z are missing from my chosen era, steam/transition/modern image modellers have it far better with their choice". 

As you say I don't see why being able to run scale length trains would be a particular advantage for modern; I've never heard that cited. Indeed most modern freights are so long that actually scale length is hard unless you have a massive layout.

I remember seeing that said in Railway Modeller yonks ago, and it was dropped into the conversation when I was speaking with the N Gauge Society at their stand at a show a couple of years ago.

 

I dont really know what is available to the market for steam era, as I have absolutely no interest in steam (I was 43 before I saw a steam loco in action), the modern era modeller does seem to be well catered for in N

[njee20]

2 hours ago, mdvle said:

 

The model train market is consistent - it is about spending significant sums of money ($100,000+) in create a product, a sum of money that you have spent typically 12 to 18 months (or more) before you get paid (remember, for companies like Dapol, Bachmann, Hornby where most of their sales are through retail, retail typically gets 30 to 60 days to pay after receiving product, yet the tool makers, CAD drawers, factory, etc. all get paid well before that money comes in).

 

And lenders view you suspiciously, as you essentially have no assets (your money is sunk into large blobs of metal that are in China), so you aren't going to get the preferential lending treatment.  And with good reason - note that creditors haven't been able to turn the "assets" of either DJM or Little Loco Company into cash so far that has been public.

 

Consider the ongoing financial problems at Hornby, that Bachmann's parent Kader just went through financial problems (and part of their solution was to force price hikes on Bachmann), and that mainland European train makers have something of a history of financial issues and it is clear that regardless of company this is a business that is driven by cash flow - and that means aiming to pay the costs on the first run of every single project.  Because of course you won't always succeed, you will lose money on some projects (oops - duplicate model announced, or bad timing, or bad luck) so you can't be planning on paying off that debt on a second run that typically won't happen for x years after the first release.  Or your factory in China closes so you your second run has been delayed by a year or more as you desperately try and find a new factory (the process of which itself costs you even more money)

 

 

There are 24 hours in a day, 168 hours in a week, roughly 5040 hours in a month, etc.

 

That inherently means there is a limit to the number of actual announced projects, and potential future projects, that any model company can have on the go at any one time - more so in the case of a small 2 person company that isn't a full time job.

 

So that means, in the context of this topic, that any work done to possibly bring a Class 89 to N is time that could have been spent on something else that people want.

 

Now, if Revolution feel a Class 89 in N could be successful then they could view that time spent as a good choice for the company, but if there are other projects that they feel could have a better chance of success then work on a Class 89 would be "stealing" time for those projects, thus delaying them.

 

 

So, the 2 factories that Rapido are partnered with in China are looking for new clients.

 

Anyone who thinks this is all so easy and takes up next to no time, here is your opportunity to become a model train maker and you can then demonstrate to us how the finite number of available hours in a month won't apply to you.

 

 

Yes, a bunch of that work is handed off to others (at the cost of money), but that doesn't mean Revolution have nothing to do - they don't hand over CAD drawings and then x months later get the final product - at various stages they will need to evaluate samples which is detail work and time consuming (going over every part of the model to make sure it is all correct, creating lists of corrections to be sent to the factory, etc.), make sure the paint samples are correct, with list of corrections to the factory, and I am sure a bunch of other things we as consumers are unaware of.

 

 

Having only 1 transition era product for one.

 

But the overall point remains - the number of people participating on social media with their hobby is a very small percentage of the overall market, and thus is not an accurate representation of the market.

Ignoring the grossly condescending tone of your post, you appear to be thinking bizarrely one dimensionally. The delay point is totally moot. A company plans a schedule. They don’t suddenly decide to invest time, effort and money in a new product, as you seem to be implying with the 89 (or indeed any future product!). Therefore any “delay” is baked in. In extremis you could maybe say that if they delivered one product to market before even starting on the next then suddenly adding a new one would cause delay, but that’s not how Revolution work, plus they never commit to delivery dates against which there could be slippage, so it’s an irrelevance. 
 

I’ve never said it was easy, nor that I could do a better job, not sure what that’s got to do with anything. Nor did I say that there is no effort between R&D and delivery. I think you’re being deliberately obtuse. 
 

Re transition era models Revolution tried a campaign for a 21/29, but it didn’t reach critical mass. The class B only did with a lot of nurturing. More recent prototypes have sold far better. This isn’t a secret. 

Has anyone said social media is representative of the whole industry? Given this is a hobby for the “more mature” participant I suspect it’s representation on social media is lower than the average. 

 

Anyway, we’ve drifted from an interesting discussion into your patronising and fatuous ‘economics’ lesson.

[mdvle]

1 hour ago, njee20 said:

A company plans a schedule. They don’t suddenly decide to invest time, effort and money in a new product, as you seem to be implying with the 89 (or indeed any future product!).

 

And schedules change, based on opportunities or problems.

 

The point, which you are choosing to ignore, is that the comments on this thread are of the "oh look shiny new thing in OO, Revolution should do one also".  So it is not me who is implying it, but other participants in this thread.

 

 

[njee20]

I don’t think they are saying that. I wholly agree with you (I even said as much on page 1 yesterday, long before you posted) that I think it’s a tough sell in N.

 

We shall see in due course. I’d quite like it to be a loco, I can buy one or two and move on, wagons get expensive when you have to buy a whole rake in one go!

[Roy L S]

20 hours ago, mdvle said:

 

Not strictly transition era models though as they lasted into following eras, which increases their market potential.

 

On the other hand the 56xx is definitely out of era for most of the existing Revolution customer base, and is likely of interest to a customer base that largely is ignoring social media and getting most of their info from either magazines or even more likely their favourite dealer.

 

Sorry but I think your logic is flawed. The transition period lasted from roughly 1957 when the initial modernisation plan diesel locos started arriving, through to the end of steam in 1968, that's roughly 11 years. How likely would it be that any prototype would last only for that specific period. The point is that in the case of the Class B it was introduced during the period and the Sturgeon in use throughout it.

 

Applying your logic are you saying that any diesel introduced in that period is not a transition era loco unless withdrawn by 1968??

 

It matters not when they were introduced or withdrawn, what defines the model as a transition (or any other period) model is that it existed in operation during that period. A first Gen DMU like a 117 is very much a transition model, but that does not prevent it from being a pre-TOPS model and a post TOPS model, and a sectorisation model and a model in preservation.

 

Roy

[njee20]

It seems obvious he means in the conventional sense, ie a real item of rolling stock...? The Sturgeon was dismissed by mdvle as "not being a transition era model", because it existed outside of the conventionally defined transition era period. Roy is saying therefore to meet mdvle's criteria a model would have to have been introduced after 1957 and withdrawn before 1968, which is obviously daft.

[njee20]

"This model is based on a real prototype" - it is a replica of a real thing (as opposed to something ficticious)

 

Not the same as "this is only the prototype" (ie the first version from which iterations will follow).

 

Is that really modellers jargon...? I would say that's very common lexicon. This thread really is becoming ridiculous now!

Edited May 21, 2020 by njee20

[njee20]

Go and check the hierarchy of this forum.

There is a Prototype section. I assure you this is not concerned with only discussing the initial pre-production variants of everything within. There are further sub forums called: 

 

•  UK Prototype Questions
•  UK Prototype Discussions (not questions!)
•  Special interests - UK prototype
•  Overseas Prototype
• GWR Rolling Stock: model and prototype
• Pre-Grouping - Modelling & Prototype

 

I don't believe you genuinely didn't understand the use of the word "prototype" in this context, you appear to be playing dumb for some bizarre effect.

[woodenhead]

@Ben A the RMWeb massive is beginning to eat itself over this announcement - please give a morsel so they go back to discussing the models and not dissecting every word each of them use.

[Roy L S]

Oh dear, I had thought that the term "prototype" in this context was a commonly used and understood one in the modelling community, meaning the actual things 1:1 scale in the real world of which we make models.

 

Apologies.

 

Roy

[Allegheny1600]

8 minutes ago, Roy L S said:

Oh dear, I had thought that the term "prototype" in this context was a commonly used and understood one in the modelling community, meaning the actual things 1:1 scale in the real world of which we make models.

 

Apologies.

 

Roy

Hi Roy,

No need to apologise, it's just some silly person, trying to trip people up for some bizarre reason.

He seems to thrive on being ultra pedantic and is best ignored! This was an interesting discussion beforehand, please let's hope it can carry on.

I am quite confident the rest of us knew perfectly well what you meant.

Cheers,

John.

[Mike Harvey]

2 hours ago, Lantavian said:

 

Do you mean "prototype" in the normal sense or as modelling jargon here?

 

Made me smile.

 

 

[Tricky-CRS]

2 hours ago, Lantavian said:

 

I was asking for clarity. There were one-offs in the early days of the modernisation programme ... ie prototypes, in normal English.  

 

 

But when you are designing a model, the real wagon is the prototype for the model. The production wagon is based on a prototype be it a real wagon or a model. Prototype can be used in many contexts. 

 

Take Mk1 coaches these would have had a prototype builds before production design was finalised, the production version may or may not look much like the prototypes. The production Mk1 (Real World) will be the prototype for the model world version but it will have had its own prototype versions, like 1st of tooling no detail, final of tooling amongst others (nowadays 3D test print of CAD model). 

[Guest Half-full]

6 hours ago, Allegheny1600 said:

Hi Roy,

No need to apologise, it's just some silly person, trying to trip people up for some bizarre reason.

He seems to thrive on being ultra pedantic and is best ignored! This was an interesting discussion beforehand, please let's hope it can carry on.

I am quite confident the rest of us knew perfectly well what you meant.

Cheers,

John.

I cannot agree enough John, I wish I could have put it as nicely as you!!!

 

[TomE]

Anyway...…...

 

Another possibility is something new from Sonic models. The 56XX is in production and they are nearing the end with the 320/321 so it might be something else from that stable. Come oooon S15....

 

Tom.  

[njee20]

Seems comparatively likely, but given the 56XX and the 321 are polar opposites of the spectrum it'll be interesting to see!

 

I reckon it'll be something powered. It feels like there have been a lot of wagon announcements recently.

[woodenhead]

13 hours ago, njee20 said:

Seems comparatively likely, but given the 56XX and the 321 are polar opposites of the spectrum it'll be interesting to see!

 

I reckon it'll be something powered. It feels like there have been a lot of wagon announcements recently.

Combine the two and get a powered wagon.

https://www.railwaygazette.com/freight/self-propelled-wagon-prototype/40181.article

[Guest Half-full]

7 hours ago, woodenhead said:

Combine the two and get a powered wagon.

https://www.railwaygazette.com/freight/self-propelled-wagon-prototype/40181.article

Shhhh dont mention its a prototype...

[Revolution Mike]

Interesting thread folks! All will be revealed next week. 
 

Nothing to do with Sonic I’m afraid (though there are future announcements to make on that front). 
 

I don’t think it is giving anything away by saying that the announcements would have been made at DEMU’s Showcase if we hadn’t been in lockdown. 
 

As with everything it will please some and disappoint others but even if what we announce isn’t for you this time the announcement after might well be!
 

Cheers Mike